Over the five years through 2024-25, credit bureaux and rating agencies’ revenue is slated to fall at a compound annual rate of 5% to £2.3 billion. Geopolitical issues, particularly the forced stoppage of operations in Russia, have hurt the industry, mainly through lower deal rates and lost synergies with companies’ Russian branches. This also ate into profitability, cutting off some of the highest-ticket deals, which are the most profitable for rating agencies. Brexit restructuring has further influenced the market, with companies being forced to split their UK and EU operations. At the same time, weak economic conditions have held impeded revenue – low confidence and the high interest rate environment have meant there’s been less borrowing across the economy over the past few years, meaning less demand for the services credit rating agencies provide. In 2024-25, revenue is anticipated to climb by 3.2%. Increasingly favourable economic conditions, interest rate cuts and an upturn in deal-making are expected to stimulate borrowing. This will feed through to higher demand for credit rating services, as lenders require credit checks prior to approving loans. Over the five years through 2029-30, revenue is forecast to expand at a compound annual rate of 2.7% to £2.7 billion. Mounting demand for ESG rating services, which have been brought in by a number of major rating agencies, will be a key driver of this growth. Additionally, falling rates and a likely end to skyrocketing inflation will provide a more suitable environment for borrowing, ramping up demand for credit rating services.