Graph and download economic data for FOMC Summary of Economic Projections for the Fed Funds Rate, Median (FEDTARMD) from 2026 to 2028 about projection, federal, median, rate, and USA.

The benchmark interest rate in the United States was last recorded at 3.75 percent. This dataset provides the latest reported value for - United States Fed Funds Rate - plus previous releases, historical high and low, short-term forecast and long-term prediction, economic calendar, survey consensus and news.

In 2026, the federal funds effective rate continued its downward adjustment as the Federal Reserve advanced its policy easing cycle. After the beginning of 2025 at **** percent following a January rate cut, the rate remained unchanged until September 2025, when it was reduced to **** percent. Additional easing followed late in the year, with the rate lowered to **** percent in November and further reduced to **** percent in December, reflecting a sustained shift toward accommodative monetary policy. This phase of rate reductions followed a prolonged period of elevated interest rates that began after the COVID-19 pandemic. In early 2020, the federal funds effective rate was sharply reduced in response to the economic shock caused by the pandemic, falling from **** percent in February 2020 to **** percent in March and reaching **** percent by April. These emergency cuts, combined with the quantitative easing program, were designed to stabilize financial markets and support economic activity. The rate remained near zero for nearly two years before the Federal Reserve initiated a tightening cycle in early 2022, raising the rate from **** percent in April 2022 to a peak of **** percent in August 2023. After holding rates steady for more than a year, the Federal Reserve began reversing course in September 2024, cutting the rate to **** percent, followed by a further reduction to **** percent in December 2024, marking the start of a broader policy pivot that continued through 2025 and into 2026, reaching **** percent in February 2026. What is the federal funds effective rate? The U.S. federal funds effective rate determines the interest rate paid by depository institutions, such as banks and credit unions, that lend reserve balances to other depository institutions overnight. Changing the effective rate in times of crisis is a common way to stimulate the economy, as it has a significant impact on the whole economy, such as economic growth, employment, and inflation. Central bank policy rates Interest rate adjustments following the COVID-19 pandemic reflected a largely coordinated global response. In early 2020, central banks worldwide adopted aggressive monetary easing to counter the economic shock, with the Federal Reserve cutting the federal funds rate from **** percent in February to **** percent by April, in line with actions taken globally. After rates remained near zero through 2021, rising inflation triggered a synchronized tightening cycle beginning in 2022. As inflation moderated, central banks - including the Federal Reserve, the Bank of England, and the European Central Bank - began cutting rates in mid-2024. This shift toward easing broadened in 2025, with interest rates reduced in most countries.

United States - FOMC Summary of Economic Projections for the Fed Funds Rate, Median was 3.10% in January of 2028, according to the United States Federal Reserve. Historically, United States - FOMC Summary of Economic Projections for the Fed Funds Rate, Median reached a record high of 5.40 in January of 2023 and a record low of 0.10 in January of 2020. Trading Economics provides the current actual value, an historical data chart and related indicators for United States - FOMC Summary of Economic Projections for the Fed Funds Rate, Median - last updated from the United States Federal Reserve on March of 2026.

The U.S. federal funds rate reached its peak in 2023, climbing to **** percent by December - its highest level since the 2007-08 financial crisis - following an aggressive tightening cycle aimed at curbing elevated inflation. A clear shift in monetary policy emerged in the second half of 2024, when the Federal Reserve began implementing a series of rate cuts as inflationary pressures eased and economic growth moderated. By December 2024, the federal funds rate had declined to **** percent. This easing cycle continued into 2025, with additional rate reductions throughout the year, bringing the rate below **** percent by year-end and signaling a sustained move toward a more accommodative policy stance. What is a central bank rate? The federal funds rate determines the cost of overnight borrowing between banks, allowing them to maintain necessary cash reserves and ensure financial system liquidity. When this rate rises, banks become more inclined to hold rather than lend money, reducing the money supply. While this decreased lending slows economic activity, it helps control inflation by limiting the circulation of money in the economy. Historical perspective The federal funds rate historically follows cyclical patterns, falling during recessions and gradually rising during economic recoveries. Some central banks, notably the European Central Bank, went beyond traditional monetary policy by implementing both aggressive asset purchases and negative interest rates.

View market daily updates and historical trends for Effective Federal Funds Rate. from United States. Source: Federal Reserve. Track economic data with YC…

United States - FOMC Summary of Economic Projections for the Fed Funds Rate, Central Tendency, High was 3.60% in January of 2028, according to the United States Federal Reserve. Historically, United States - FOMC Summary of Economic Projections for the Fed Funds Rate, Central Tendency, High reached a record high of 5.40 in January of 2023 and a record low of 0.10 in January of 2020. Trading Economics provides the current actual value, an historical data chart and related indicators for United States - FOMC Summary of Economic Projections for the Fed Funds Rate, Central Tendency, High - last updated from the United States Federal Reserve on February of 2026.

FOMC Fed Funds Rate Projections - Low Range - Historical chart and current data through 2028.

United States - FOMC Summary of Economic Projections for the Fed Funds Rate, Central Tendency, Midpoint was 3.20% in January of 2028, according to the United States Federal Reserve. Historically, United States - FOMC Summary of Economic Projections for the Fed Funds Rate, Central Tendency, Midpoint reached a record high of 5.40 in January of 2023 and a record low of 0.10 in January of 2020. Trading Economics provides the current actual value, an historical data chart and related indicators for United States - FOMC Summary of Economic Projections for the Fed Funds Rate, Central Tendency, Midpoint - last updated from the United States Federal Reserve on March of 2026.

Graph and download economic data for Federal Funds Target Range - Upper Limit (DFEDTARU) from 2008-12-16 to 2026-03-28 about federal, interest rate, interest, rate, and USA.

FOMC Fed Funds Rate Projections - Historical chart and current data through 2025.

Graph and download economic data for Longer Run FOMC Summary of Economic Projections for the Fed Funds Rate, Median (FEDTARMDLR) from 2012-01-25 to 2026-03-18 about projection, federal, median, rate, and USA.

United States - FOMC Summary of Economic Projections for the Fed Funds Rate, Central Tendency, Low was 2.80% in January of 2028, according to the United States Federal Reserve. Historically, United States - FOMC Summary of Economic Projections for the Fed Funds Rate, Central Tendency, Low reached a record high of 5.40 in January of 2023 and a record low of 0.10 in January of 2020. Trading Economics provides the current actual value, an historical data chart and related indicators for United States - FOMC Summary of Economic Projections for the Fed Funds Rate, Central Tendency, Low - last updated from the United States Federal Reserve on February of 2026.

United States - FOMC Summary of Economic Projections for the Fed Funds Rate, Range, Low was 2.60% in January of 2028, according to the United States Federal Reserve. Historically, United States - FOMC Summary of Economic Projections for the Fed Funds Rate, Range, Low reached a record high of 5.40 in January of 2023 and a record low of 0.10 in January of 2020. Trading Economics provides the current actual value, an historical data chart and related indicators for United States - FOMC Summary of Economic Projections for the Fed Funds Rate, Range, Low - last updated from the United States Federal Reserve on February of 2026.

Overview with Chart & Report: FED Interest Rate Decision is made on a predetermined date during the vote among the members of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) concerning the Federal Reserve short-term interest rates to be

United States - FOMC Summary of Economic Projections for the Fed Funds Rate, Range, High was 3.90% in January of 2028, according to the United States Federal Reserve. Historically, United States - FOMC Summary of Economic Projections for the Fed Funds Rate, Range, High reached a record high of 5.40 in January of 2023 and a record low of 0.10 in January of 2020. Trading Economics provides the current actual value, an historical data chart and related indicators for United States - FOMC Summary of Economic Projections for the Fed Funds Rate, Range, High - last updated from the United States Federal Reserve on March of 2026.

Composite index measuring consensus fragility around Federal Reserve interest rate expectations for 2026. Combines FOMC Dot Plot dispersion, CME FedWatch market-vs-Fed gap, and Kalshi prediction market divergence.

United States - Longer Run FOMC Summary of Economic Projections for the Fed Funds Rate, Median was 3.00% in September of 2025, according to the United States Federal Reserve. Historically, United States - Longer Run FOMC Summary of Economic Projections for the Fed Funds Rate, Median reached a record high of 4.30 in April of 2012 and a record low of 2.40 in March of 2022. Trading Economics provides the current actual value, an historical data chart and related indicators for United States - Longer Run FOMC Summary of Economic Projections for the Fed Funds Rate, Median - last updated from the United States Federal Reserve on March of 2026.

United States FOMC Projection: Federal Funds Rate: Central Tendency: Y3: Upper End data was reported at 3.600 % in Dec 2025. This stayed constant from the previous number of 3.600 % for Sep 2025. United States FOMC Projection: Federal Funds Rate: Central Tendency: Y3: Upper End data is updated quarterly, averaging 0.400 % from Sep 2015 (Median) to Dec 2025, with 22 observations. The data reached an all-time high of 4.100 % in Sep 2023 and a record low of 0.400 % in Dec 2020. United States FOMC Projection: Federal Funds Rate: Central Tendency: Y3: Upper End data remains active status in CEIC and is reported by Federal Reserve Board. The data is categorized under Global Database’s United States – Table US.M: Federal Funds Rates: Summary of Economic Projections: Federal Reserve Board.

United States FOMC Projection: Federal Funds Rate: Median: Year 3 (Y3) data was reported at 3.100 % in Dec 2025. This stayed constant from the previous number of 3.100 % for Sep 2025. United States FOMC Projection: Federal Funds Rate: Median: Year 3 (Y3) data is updated quarterly, averaging 0.100 % from Sep 2015 (Median) to Dec 2025, with 23 observations. The data reached an all-time high of 3.400 % in Sep 2018 and a record low of 0.100 % in Dec 2020. United States FOMC Projection: Federal Funds Rate: Median: Year 3 (Y3) data remains active status in CEIC and is reported by Federal Reserve Board. The data is categorized under Global Database’s United States – Table US.M: Federal Funds Rates: Summary of Economic Projections: Federal Reserve Board.