United States - FOMC Summary of Economic Projections for the Growth Rate of Real Gross Domestic Product, Range, Midpoint was 2.00000 Fourth Qtr. to Fourth Qtr. % Chg. in January of 2027, according to the United States Federal Reserve. Historically, United States - FOMC Summary of Economic Projections for the Growth Rate of Real Gross Domestic Product, Range, Midpoint reached a record high of 5.55000 in January of 2021 and a record low of -2.15000 in January of 2020. Trading Economics provides the current actual value, an historical data chart and related indicators for United States - FOMC Summary of Economic Projections for the Growth Rate of Real Gross Domestic Product, Range, Midpoint - last updated from the United States Federal Reserve on March of 2025.

Graph and download economic data for FOMC Summary of Economic Projections for the Fed Funds Rate, Range, Midpoint (FEDTARRM) from 2025 to 2027 about projection, federal, rate, and USA.

The U.S. federal funds effective rate underwent a dramatic reduction in early 2020 in response to the COVID-19 pandemic. The rate plummeted from 1.58 percent in February 2020 to 0.65 percent in March, and further decreased to 0.05 percent in April. This sharp reduction, accompanied by the Federal Reserve's quantitative easing program, was implemented to stabilize the economy during the global health crisis. After maintaining historically low rates for nearly two years, the Federal Reserve began a series of rate hikes in early 2022, with the rate moving from 0.33 percent in April 2022 to 5.33 percent in August 2023. The rate remained unchanged for over a year, before the Federal Reserve initiated its first rate cut in nearly three years in September 2024, bringing the rate to 5.13 percent. By December 2024, the rate was cut to 4.48 percent, signaling a shift in monetary policy in the second half of 2024. The first rate cut in 2025 then set the rate at 4.33 percent. What is the federal funds effective rate? The U.S. federal funds effective rate determines the interest rate paid by depository institutions, such as banks and credit unions, that lend reserve balances to other depository institutions overnight. Changing the effective rate in times of crisis is a common way to stimulate the economy, as it has a significant impact on the whole economy, such as economic growth, employment, and inflation. Central bank policy rates The adjustment of interest rates in response to the COVID-19 pandemic was a coordinated global effort. In early 2020, central banks worldwide implemented aggressive monetary easing policies to combat the economic crisis. The U.S. Federal Reserve's dramatic reduction of its federal funds rate - from 1.58 percent in February 2020 to 0.05 percent by April - mirrored similar actions taken by central banks globally. While these low rates remained in place throughout 2021, mounting inflationary pressures led to a synchronized tightening cycle beginning in 2022, with central banks pushing rates to multi-year highs. By mid-2024, as inflation moderated across major economies, central banks began implementing their first rate cuts in several years, with the U.S. Federal Reserve, Bank of England, and European Central Bank all easing monetary policy.

Historical dataset of the daily level of the federal funds rate back to 1954. The fed funds rate is the interest rate at which depository institutions (banks and credit unions) lend reserve balances to other depository institutions overnight, on an uncollateralized basis. The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meets eight times a year to determine the federal funds target rate.

Policy interest rates in the U.S. and Europe are forecasted to decrease gradually between 2024 and 2027, following exceptional increases triggered by soaring inflation between 2021 and 2023. The U.S. federal funds rate stood at 5.38 percent at the end of 2023, the European Central Bank deposit rate at four percent, and the Swiss National Bank policy rate at 1.75 percent. With inflationary pressures stabilizing, policy interest rates are forecast to decrease in each observed region. The U.S. federal funds rate is expected to decrease to 3.5 percent, the ECB refi rate to 2.65 percent, the Bank of England bank rate to 3.33 percent, and the Swiss National Bank policy rate to 0.75 percent by 2025. An interesting aspect to note is the impact of these interest rate changes on various economic factors such as growth, employment, and inflation. The impact of central bank policy rates The U.S. federal funds effective rate, crucial in determining the interest rate paid by depository institutions, experienced drastic changes in response to the COVID-19 pandemic. The subsequent slight changes in the effective rate reflected the efforts to stimulate the economy and manage economic factors such as inflation. Such fluctuations in the federal funds rate have had a significant impact on the overall economy. The European Central Bank's decision to cut its fixed interest rate in June 2024 for the first time since 2016 marked a significant shift in attitude towards economic conditions. The reasons behind the fluctuations in the ECB's interest rate reflect its mandate to ensure price stability and manage inflation, shedding light on the complex interplay between interest rates and economic factors. Inflation and real interest rates The relationship between inflation and interest rates is critical in understanding the actions of central banks. Central banks' efforts to manage inflation through interest rate adjustments reveal the intricate balance between economic growth and inflation. Additionally, the concept of real interest rates, adjusted for inflation, provides valuable insights into the impact of inflation on the economy.

United States - Longer Run FOMC Summary of Economic Projections for the Personal Consumption Expenditures Inflation Rate, Range, Low was 2.00000 Fourth Qtr. to Fourth Qtr. % Chg. in December of 2024, according to the United States Federal Reserve. Historically, United States - Longer Run FOMC Summary of Economic Projections for the Personal Consumption Expenditures Inflation Rate, Range, Low reached a record high of 2.00000 in January of 2012 and a record low of 1.50000 in May of 2009. Trading Economics provides the current actual value, an historical data chart and related indicators for United States - Longer Run FOMC Summary of Economic Projections for the Personal Consumption Expenditures Inflation Rate, Range, Low - last updated from the United States Federal Reserve on March of 2025.

In January 2025, global inflation rates and central bank interest rates showed significant variation across major economies. Most economies initiated interest rate cuts from mid-2024 due to declining inflationary pressures. The U.S., UK, and EU central banks followed a consistent pattern of regular rate reductions throughout late 2024. In early 2025, Russia maintained the highest interest rate at 21 percent, while Japan retained the lowest at 0.5 percent. Varied inflation rates across major economies The inflation landscape varies considerably among major economies. China had the lowest inflation rate at 0.5 percent in January 2025. In contrast, Russia maintained a high inflation rate of 9.9 percent. These figures align with broader trends observed in early 2025, where China had the lowest inflation rate among major developed and emerging economies, while Russia's rate remained the highest. Central bank responses and economic indicators Central banks globally implemented aggressive rate hikes throughout 2022-23 to combat inflation. The European Central Bank exemplified this trend, raising rates from 0 percent in January 2022 to 4.5 percent by September 2023. A coordinated shift among major central banks began in mid-2024, with the ECB, Bank of England, and Federal Reserve initiating rate cuts, with forecasts suggesting further cuts through 2025 and 2026.

From 2003 to 2025, the central banks of the United States, United Kingdom, and European Union exhibited remarkably similar interest rate patterns, reflecting shared global economic conditions. In the early 2000s, rates were initially low to stimulate growth, then increased as economies showed signs of overheating prior to 2008. The financial crisis that year prompted sharp rate cuts to near-zero levels, which persisted for an extended period to support economic recovery. The COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 led to further rate reductions to historic lows, aiming to mitigate economic fallout. However, surging inflation in 2022 triggered a dramatic policy shift, with the Federal Reserve, Bank of England, and European Central Bank significantly raising rates to curb price pressures. As inflation stabilized in late 2023 and early 2024, the ECB and Bank of England initiated rate cuts by mid-2024, and the Federal Reserve also implemented its first cut in three years, with forecasts suggesting a gradual decrease in all major interest rates between 2025 and 2026. Divergent approaches within the European Union While the ECB sets a benchmark rate for the Eurozone, individual EU countries have adopted diverse strategies to address their unique economic circumstances. For instance, Hungary set the highest rate in the EU at 13 percent in September 2023, gradually reducing it to 6.5 percent by October 2024. In contrast, Sweden implemented more aggressive cuts, lowering its rate to 2.25 percent by February 2025, the lowest among EU members. These variations highlight the complex economic landscape that European central banks must navigate, balancing inflation control with economic growth support. Global context and future outlook The interest rate changes in major economies have had far-reaching effects on global financial markets. Government bond yields, for example, reflect these policy shifts and investor sentiment. As of June 2024, the United States had the highest 10-year government bond yield among developed economies at 4.09 percent, while Switzerland had the lowest at 0.69 percent. These rates serve as important benchmarks for borrowing costs and economic expectations worldwide.

United States - Longer Run FOMC Summary of Economic Projections for the Fed Funds Rate, Range, Low was 2.40% in December of 2024, according to the United States Federal Reserve. Historically, United States - Longer Run FOMC Summary of Economic Projections for the Fed Funds Rate, Range, Low reached a record high of 3.30 in June of 2015 and a record low of 2.00 in September of 2019. Trading Economics provides the current actual value, an historical data chart and related indicators for United States - Longer Run FOMC Summary of Economic Projections for the Fed Funds Rate, Range, Low - last updated from the United States Federal Reserve on March of 2025.

The U.S. bank prime loan rate has undergone significant fluctuations over the past three decades, reflecting broader economic trends and monetary policy decisions. From a high of 10.1 percent in 1990, the rate has seen periods of decline, stability, and recent increases. As of February 2025, the prime rate stood at 7.5 percent, marking a notable rise from the historic lows seen in the early 2020s. Federal Reserve's impact on lending rates The prime rate's trajectory closely mirrors changes in the federal funds rate, which serves as a key benchmark for the U.S. financial system. In 2023, the Federal Reserve implemented a series of rate hikes, pushing the federal funds target range to 5.25-5.5 percent by year-end. This aggressive monetary tightening was aimed at combating rising inflation, and its effects rippled through various lending rates, including the prime rate. Long-term investment outlook While short-term rates have risen, long-term investment yields have also seen changes. The 10-year U.S. Treasury bond, a benchmark for long-term interest rates, showed an average market yield of 2.13 percent in the second quarter of 2024, adjusted for constant maturity and inflation. This figure represents a recovery from negative real returns seen in 2021, reflecting shifting expectations for economic growth and inflation. The evolving yield environment has implications for both borrowers and investors, influencing decisions across the financial landscape.

Chicago Fed National Activity Index in the United States increased to 0.18 points in February from -0.08 points in January of 2025. This dataset provides the latest reported value for - United States Chicago Fed National Activity Index - plus previous releases, historical high and low, short-term forecast and long-term prediction, economic calendar, survey consensus and news.

Graph and download economic data for FOMC Summary of Economic Projections for the Growth Rate of Real Gross Domestic Product, Range, High (GDPC1RH) from 2025 to 2027 about projection, real, GDP, rate, and USA.

The benchmark interest rate in Japan was last recorded at 0.50 percent. This dataset provides - Japan Interest Rate - actual values, historical data, forecast, chart, statistics, economic calendar and news.

Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index in the United States decreased to 12.50 points in March from 18.10 points in February of 2025. This dataset provides the latest reported value for - United States Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index - plus previous releases, historical high and low, short-term forecast and long-term prediction, economic calendar, survey consensus and news.

By 2034, the gross federal debt of the United States is projected to be about 54.39 trillion U.S. dollars. This would be an increase of around 21 trillion U.S. dollars from 2023, when the federal debt was around 33 trillion U.S. dollars.

The federal debt of the U.S.

The federal debt, also called the national debt or public debt, is the amount of debt held by the United States government. This debt may be to other countries, or to different departments within the government itself. The public debt of the United States has increased significantly over the past 30 years, as it was around 3.2 trillion U.S. dollars in 1990 and surpassed 30 trillion dollars for the first time in 2022. When broken down per capita, the national debt amounted to about 80,885 U.S. dollars of debt per person in the United States in 2021.

The problem of the federal debt

Over the past decade, the federal debt limit in the United States has increased significantly. The U.S. debt ceiling can only be changed by an act of Congress which is then signed by the president. The raising of the ceiling has become a recurring political issue in recent years, especially during times when the Presidency and chambers of Congress are controlled by different parties.

The debt ceiling is a tool that allows the Treasury to issue bonds without congressional approval, allowing for efficiency in the way that the government pays for programs and services. It is thought to be further valuable in that it keeps federal finances in check. However, when the two parties are unable to come to an agreement on raising the debt ceiling, the government comes to a shutdown because they can no longer fund themselves. The Republican Party in particular often positions itself against raising the federal debt ceiling, characterizing themselves as the party of fiscal conservativism. However, analyses have shown that both parties have contributed to the country's debt in almost equal measures.

The benchmark interest rate in Mexico was last recorded at 9.50 percent. This dataset provides - Mexico Interest Rate - actual values, historical data, forecast, chart, statistics, economic calendar and news.

Graph and download economic data for FOMC Summary of Economic Projections for the Personal Consumption Expenditures less Food and Energy Inflation Rate, Range, High (JCXFERH) from 2025 to 2027 about core, projection, PCE, consumption expenditures, consumption, personal, inflation, rate, and USA.

The United States recorded a Government Debt to GDP of 122.30 percent of the country's Gross Domestic Product in 2023. This dataset provides - United States Government Debt To GDP - actual values, historical data, forecast, chart, statistics, economic calendar and news.

The benchmark interest rate in Hong Kong was last recorded at 4.75 percent. This dataset provides the latest reported value for - Hong Kong Interest Rate - plus previous releases, historical high and low, short-term forecast and long-term prediction, economic calendar, survey consensus and news.

Money Supply M2 in the United States increased to 21447.60 USD Billion in November from 21311.20 USD Billion in October of 2024. This dataset provides - United States Money Supply M2 - actual values, historical data, forecast, chart, statistics, economic calendar and news.