Graph and download economic data for FOMC Summary of Economic Projections for the Fed Funds Rate, Median (FEDTARMD) from 2025 to 2027 about projection, federal, median, rate, and USA.

The benchmark interest rate in the United States was last recorded at 4.50 percent. This dataset provides the latest reported value for - United States Fed Funds Rate - plus previous releases, historical high and low, short-term forecast and long-term prediction, economic calendar, survey consensus and news.

Graph and download economic data for Federal Funds Target Range - Upper Limit (DFEDTARU) from 2008-12-16 to 2025-06-08 about federal, interest rate, interest, rate, and USA.

U.S. monetary-policy decisions are made by the 12 voting members of the FOMC. Seven of these members inherently represent national-level interests. The remaining members, a rotating group of presidents from the 12 Federal Reserve districts, come instead from sub-national jurisdictions. Does this structure have implications for the monetary policy-making process? We provide novel evidence that regional economic conditions influence the voting behavior of district presidents. Specifically, a regional unemployment rate that is one-percentage-point higher than the national level is associated with an approximately nine-percentage-points higher probability of dissenting in favor of looser policy at the FOMC.

United States - Smoothed U.S. Recession Probabilities was 0.38% in February of 2025, according to the United States Federal Reserve. Historically, United States - Smoothed U.S. Recession Probabilities reached a record high of 100.00 in November of 1974 and a record low of 0.00 in November of 1967. Trading Economics provides the current actual value, an historical data chart and related indicators for United States - Smoothed U.S. Recession Probabilities - last updated from the United States Federal Reserve on April of 2025.

Graph and download economic data for 3-Month Moving Average of Average Probability of U.S. Workers Making Employer to Employer Transitions (FMPSA3MA) from Dec 1995 to Apr 2025 about , and USA.

We use the yield curve to predict future GDP growth and recession probabilities. The spread between short- and long-term rates typically correlates with economic growth. Predications are calculated using a model developed by the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland. Released monthly.

Graph and download economic data for Deflation Probability (STLPPMDEF) from Jan 1990 to Apr 2025 about inflation and USA.

The benchmark interest rate in Japan was last recorded at 0.50 percent. This dataset provides - Japan Interest Rate - actual values, historical data, forecast, chart, statistics, economic calendar and news.

Graph and download economic data for Average Probability of U.S. Workers Making Employer to Employer Transitions (FMPNSA) from Oct 1995 to Apr 2025 about , and USA.

We report average expected inflation rates over the next one through 30 years. Our estimates of expected inflation rates are calculated using a Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland model that combines financial data and survey-based measures. Released monthly.

Graph and download economic data for Price Pressures Measure (STLPPM) from Jan 1990 to May 2025 about inflation, price, and USA.

United States - Deflation was 0.00000 Probability in April of 2025, according to the United States Federal Reserve. Historically, United States - Deflation reached a record high of 0.89073 in January of 2009 and a record low of 0.00000 in January of 1997. Trading Economics provides the current actual value, an historical data chart and related indicators for United States - Deflation - last updated from the United States Federal Reserve on June of 2025.

The benchmark interest rate in Canada was last recorded at 2.75 percent. This dataset provides - Canada Interest Rate - actual values, historical data, forecast, chart, statistics, economic calendar and news.

View an estimate of the probability of recession based on employment, industrial production, real personal income, and real manufacturing and trade sales.

Graph and download economic data for Real-time Sahm Rule Recession Indicator (SAHMREALTIME) from Dec 1959 to May 2025 about recession indicators, academic data, and USA.

Graph and download economic data for Inflation Between 0 and 1.5 Percent (STLPPMLOW) from Jan 1990 to May 2025 about percent, inflation, price, and USA.

Graph and download economic data for Bank Z-Score for Norway (DDSI01NOA645NWDB) from 2000 to 2021 about Z-Score, Norway, banks, and depository institutions.

Graph and download economic data for Bank Z-Score for Tonga (DDSI01TOA645NWDB) from 1996 to 2009 about Tonga, Z-Score, banks, and depository institutions.

Graph and download economic data for GDP-Based Recession Indicator Index (JHGDPBRINDX) from Q4 1967 to Q4 2024 about recession indicators, percent, GDP, and indexes.