Graph and download economic data for FOMC Summary of Economic Projections for the Fed Funds Rate, Median (FEDTARMD) from 2025 to 2027 about projection, federal, median, rate, and USA.

United States - FOMC Summary of Economic Projections for the Growth Rate of Real Gross Domestic Product, Central Tendency, Low was 1.80000 Fourth Qtr. to Fourth Qtr. % Chg. in January of 2027, according to the United States Federal Reserve. Historically, United States - FOMC Summary of Economic Projections for the Growth Rate of Real Gross Domestic Product, Central Tendency, Low reached a record high of 5.50000 in January of 2021 and a record low of -2.50000 in January of 2020. Trading Economics provides the current actual value, an historical data chart and related indicators for United States - FOMC Summary of Economic Projections for the Growth Rate of Real Gross Domestic Product, Central Tendency, Low - last updated from the United States Federal Reserve on March of 2025.

Graph and download economic data for FOMC Summary of Economic Projections for the Civilian Unemployment Rate, Central Tendency, High (UNRATECTH) from 2025 to 2027 about projection, civilian, unemployment, rate, and USA.

Graph and download economic data for FOMC Summary of Economic Projections for the Growth Rate of Real Gross Domestic Product, Range, Low (GDPC1RL) from 2025 to 2027 about projection, real, GDP, rate, and USA.

United States FOMC Projection: Core PCE Inflation: Median: Y3 data was reported at 2.000 % in Dec 2024. This stayed constant from the previous number of 2.000 % for Sep 2024. United States FOMC Projection: Core PCE Inflation: Median: Y3 data is updated quarterly, averaging 2.000 % from Sep 2015 (Median) to Dec 2024, with 20 observations. The data reached an all-time high of 2.100 % in Dec 2022 and a record low of 2.000 % in Dec 2024. United States FOMC Projection: Core PCE Inflation: Median: Y3 data remains active status in CEIC and is reported by Federal Reserve Board. The data is categorized under Global Database’s United States – Table US.I032: PCE Price Index: Summary of Economic Projections: Federal Reserve Board.

United States FOMC Projection: Federal Funds Rate: Central Tendency: Y3: Upper End data was reported at 3.600 % in Dec 2024. This stayed constant from the previous number of 3.600 % for Sep 2024. United States FOMC Projection: Federal Funds Rate: Central Tendency: Y3: Upper End data is updated quarterly, averaging 3.200 % from Sep 2015 (Median) to Dec 2024, with 20 observations. The data reached an all-time high of 4.100 % in Sep 2023 and a record low of 0.400 % in Dec 2020. United States FOMC Projection: Federal Funds Rate: Central Tendency: Y3: Upper End data remains active status in CEIC and is reported by Federal Reserve Board. The data is categorized under Global Database’s United States – Table US.M003: Federal Funds Rates: Summary of Economic Projections: Federal Reserve Board.

United States - Longer Run FOMC Summary of Economic Projections for the Fed Funds Rate, Range, Low was 2.40% in December of 2024, according to the United States Federal Reserve. Historically, United States - Longer Run FOMC Summary of Economic Projections for the Fed Funds Rate, Range, Low reached a record high of 3.30 in June of 2015 and a record low of 2.00 in September of 2019. Trading Economics provides the current actual value, an historical data chart and related indicators for United States - Longer Run FOMC Summary of Economic Projections for the Fed Funds Rate, Range, Low - last updated from the United States Federal Reserve on March of 2025.

Graph and download economic data for Longer Run FOMC Summary of Economic Projections for the Fed Funds Rate, Range, High (FEDTARRHLR) from 2015-06-17 to 2025-03-19 about projection, federal, rate, and USA.

United States FOMC Projection: PCE Inflation: Range: Y3: Upper End data was reported at 2.400 % in Dec 2024. This records an increase from the previous number of 2.100 % for Sep 2024. United States FOMC Projection: PCE Inflation: Range: Y3: Upper End data is updated quarterly, averaging 2.200 % from Sep 2015 (Median) to Dec 2024, with 20 observations. The data reached an all-time high of 3.000 % in Dec 2022 and a record low of 2.100 % in Sep 2024. United States FOMC Projection: PCE Inflation: Range: Y3: Upper End data remains active status in CEIC and is reported by Federal Reserve Board. The data is categorized under Global Database’s United States – Table US.I036: PCE Price Index: Summary of Economic Projections: Federal Reserve Board.

United States - FOMC Summary of Economic Projections for the Fed Funds Rate, Range, High was 3.90% in January of 2027, according to the United States Federal Reserve. Historically, United States - FOMC Summary of Economic Projections for the Fed Funds Rate, Range, High reached a record high of 5.40 in January of 2023 and a record low of 0.10 in January of 2020. Trading Economics provides the current actual value, an historical data chart and related indicators for United States - FOMC Summary of Economic Projections for the Fed Funds Rate, Range, High - last updated from the United States Federal Reserve on March of 2025.

United States - Longer Run FOMC Summary of Economic Projections for the Growth Rate of Real Gross Domestic Product, Range, High was 2.50000 Fourth Qtr. to Fourth Qtr. % Chg. in December of 2024, according to the United States Federal Reserve. Historically, United States - Longer Run FOMC Summary of Economic Projections for the Growth Rate of Real Gross Domestic Product, Range, High reached a record high of 3.00000 in May of 2009 and a record low of 2.10000 in June of 2018. Trading Economics provides the current actual value, an historical data chart and related indicators for United States - Longer Run FOMC Summary of Economic Projections for the Growth Rate of Real Gross Domestic Product, Range, High - last updated from the United States Federal Reserve on March of 2025.

United States FOMC Projection: Change in Real GDP: Range: Y3: Upper End data was reported at 2.500 % in Dec 2024. This stayed constant from the previous number of 2.500 % for Sep 2024. United States FOMC Projection: Change in Real GDP: Range: Y3: Upper End data is updated quarterly, averaging 2.400 % from Sep 2015 (Median) to Dec 2024, with 21 observations. The data reached an all-time high of 4.000 % in Sep 2020 and a record low of 2.000 % in Sep 2017. United States FOMC Projection: Change in Real GDP: Range: Y3: Upper End data remains active status in CEIC and is reported by Federal Reserve Board. The data is categorized under Global Database’s United States – Table US.A022: NIPA 2023: GDP by Expenditure: Constant Price: saar: QoQ: Summary of Economic Projections: Federal Reserve Board.

Graph and download economic data for Longer Run FOMC Summary of Economic Projections for the Growth Rate of Real Gross Domestic Product, Central Tendency, High (GDPC1CTHLR) from 2009-02-18 to 2025-03-19 about projection, real, GDP, rate, and USA.

United States FOMC Projection: Unemployment Rate: Median: Year 3 (Y3) data was reported at 4.300 % in Dec 2024. This records an increase from the previous number of 4.200 % for Sep 2024. United States FOMC Projection: Unemployment Rate: Median: Year 3 (Y3) data is updated quarterly, averaging 4.050 % from Sep 2015 (Median) to Dec 2024, with 20 observations. The data reached an all-time high of 4.800 % in Sep 2015 and a record low of 3.500 % in Dec 2021. United States FOMC Projection: Unemployment Rate: Median: Year 3 (Y3) data remains active status in CEIC and is reported by Federal Reserve Board. The data is categorized under Global Database’s United States – Table US.G039: Current Population Survey: Unemployment Rate: Summary of Economic Projections: Federal Reserve Board.

United States - FOMC Summary of Economic Projections for the Civilian Unemployment Rate, Range, Midpoint was 4.15000 Fourth Qtr., % in January of 2027, according to the United States Federal Reserve. Historically, United States - FOMC Summary of Economic Projections for the Civilian Unemployment Rate, Range, Midpoint reached a record high of 6.75000 in January of 2020 and a record low of 3.55000 in January of 2019. Trading Economics provides the current actual value, an historical data chart and related indicators for United States - FOMC Summary of Economic Projections for the Civilian Unemployment Rate, Range, Midpoint - last updated from the United States Federal Reserve on March of 2025.

United States - Longer Run FOMC Summary of Economic Projections for the Civilian Unemployment Rate, Range, High was 4.50000 Fourth Qtr., % in December of 2024, according to the United States Federal Reserve. Historically, United States - Longer Run FOMC Summary of Economic Projections for the Civilian Unemployment Rate, Range, High reached a record high of 6.30000 in November of 2009 and a record low of 4.30000 in December of 2021. Trading Economics provides the current actual value, an historical data chart and related indicators for United States - Longer Run FOMC Summary of Economic Projections for the Civilian Unemployment Rate, Range, High - last updated from the United States Federal Reserve on March of 2025.

United States - Longer Run FOMC Summary of Economic Projections for the Fed Funds Rate, Central Tendency, Low was 2.80% in December of 2024, according to the United States Federal Reserve. Historically, United States - Longer Run FOMC Summary of Economic Projections for the Fed Funds Rate, Central Tendency, Low reached a record high of 3.50 in June of 2015 and a record low of 2.30 in June of 2020. Trading Economics provides the current actual value, an historical data chart and related indicators for United States - Longer Run FOMC Summary of Economic Projections for the Fed Funds Rate, Central Tendency, Low - last updated from the United States Federal Reserve on March of 2025.

The U.S. federal funds effective rate underwent a dramatic reduction in early 2020 in response to the COVID-19 pandemic. The rate plummeted from 1.58 percent in February 2020 to 0.65 percent in March, and further decreased to 0.05 percent in April. This sharp reduction, accompanied by the Federal Reserve's quantitative easing program, was implemented to stabilize the economy during the global health crisis. After maintaining historically low rates for nearly two years, the Federal Reserve began a series of rate hikes in early 2022, with the rate moving from 0.33 percent in April 2022 to 5.33 percent in August 2023. The rate remained unchanged for over a year, before the Federal Reserve initiated its first rate cut in nearly three years in September 2024, bringing the rate to 5.13 percent. By December 2024, the rate was cut to 4.48 percent, signaling a shift in monetary policy in the second half of 2024. The first rate cut in 2025 then set the rate at 4.33 percent. What is the federal funds effective rate? The U.S. federal funds effective rate determines the interest rate paid by depository institutions, such as banks and credit unions, that lend reserve balances to other depository institutions overnight. Changing the effective rate in times of crisis is a common way to stimulate the economy, as it has a significant impact on the whole economy, such as economic growth, employment, and inflation. Central bank policy rates The adjustment of interest rates in response to the COVID-19 pandemic was a coordinated global effort. In early 2020, central banks worldwide implemented aggressive monetary easing policies to combat the economic crisis. The U.S. Federal Reserve's dramatic reduction of its federal funds rate - from 1.58 percent in February 2020 to 0.05 percent by April - mirrored similar actions taken by central banks globally. While these low rates remained in place throughout 2021, mounting inflationary pressures led to a synchronized tightening cycle beginning in 2022, with central banks pushing rates to multi-year highs. By mid-2024, as inflation moderated across major economies, central banks began implementing their first rate cuts in several years, with the U.S. Federal Reserve, Bank of England, and European Central Bank all easing monetary policy.

Policy interest rates in the U.S. and Europe are forecasted to decrease gradually between 2024 and 2027, following exceptional increases triggered by soaring inflation between 2021 and 2023. The U.S. federal funds rate stood at 5.38 percent at the end of 2023, the European Central Bank deposit rate at four percent, and the Swiss National Bank policy rate at 1.75 percent. With inflationary pressures stabilizing, policy interest rates are forecast to decrease in each observed region. The U.S. federal funds rate is expected to decrease to 3.5 percent, the ECB refi rate to 2.65 percent, the Bank of England bank rate to 3.33 percent, and the Swiss National Bank policy rate to 0.75 percent by 2025. An interesting aspect to note is the impact of these interest rate changes on various economic factors such as growth, employment, and inflation. The impact of central bank policy rates The U.S. federal funds effective rate, crucial in determining the interest rate paid by depository institutions, experienced drastic changes in response to the COVID-19 pandemic. The subsequent slight changes in the effective rate reflected the efforts to stimulate the economy and manage economic factors such as inflation. Such fluctuations in the federal funds rate have had a significant impact on the overall economy. The European Central Bank's decision to cut its fixed interest rate in June 2024 for the first time since 2016 marked a significant shift in attitude towards economic conditions. The reasons behind the fluctuations in the ECB's interest rate reflect its mandate to ensure price stability and manage inflation, shedding light on the complex interplay between interest rates and economic factors. Inflation and real interest rates The relationship between inflation and interest rates is critical in understanding the actions of central banks. Central banks' efforts to manage inflation through interest rate adjustments reveal the intricate balance between economic growth and inflation. Additionally, the concept of real interest rates, adjusted for inflation, provides valuable insights into the impact of inflation on the economy.

We introduce a new dataset of real gross domestic product (GDP) growth and core personal consumption expenditures (PCE) inflation forecasts produced by the staff of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. In contrast to the eight Greenbook forecasts a year the staff produce for Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings, our dataset has roughly weekly forecasts. We use these data to study whether the staff forecasts efficiently. Prespecified regressions of forecast errors on forecast revisions show the staff's GDP forecasts exhibit time-varying inefficiency between FOMC meetings, and also show some evidence for inefficient inflation forecasts.