The benchmark interest rate in the United States was last recorded at 4.50 percent. This dataset provides the latest reported value for - United States Fed Funds Rate - plus previous releases, historical high and low, short-term forecast and long-term prediction, economic calendar, survey consensus and news.

Graph and download economic data for FOMC Summary of Economic Projections for the Fed Funds Rate, Range, Midpoint (FEDTARRM) from 2025 to 2027 about projection, federal, rate, and USA.

FOMC Fed Funds Rate Projections - Low Range - Historical chart and current data through 2027.

United States FOMC Projection: Federal Funds Rate: Range: Y3: Lower End data was reported at 2.400 % in Dec 2024. This stayed constant from the previous number of 2.400 % for Sep 2024. United States FOMC Projection: Federal Funds Rate: Range: Y3: Lower End data is updated quarterly, averaging 2.000 % from Sep 2015 (Median) to Dec 2024, with 20 observations. The data reached an all-time high of 2.900 % in Sep 2015 and a record low of 0.100 % in Dec 2020. United States FOMC Projection: Federal Funds Rate: Range: Y3: Lower End data remains active status in CEIC and is reported by Federal Reserve Board. The data is categorized under Global Database’s United States – Table US.M005: Federal Funds Rates: Summary of Economic Projections: Federal Reserve Board.

For many years prior to the global financial crisis, the Federal Open Market Committee set a target for the federal funds rate and achieved that target through small purchases and sales of securities in the open market. In the aftermath of the financial crisis, with a superabundant level of reserve balances in the banking system having been created as a result of the Federal Reserve's large-scale asset purchase programs, this approach to implementing monetary policy will no longer work. This paper provides a primer on the Fed's implementation of monetary policy. We use the standard textbook model to illustrate why the approach used by the Federal Reserve before the financial crisis to keep the federal funds rate near the Federal Open Market Committee's target will not work in current circumstances, and explain the approach that the Committee intends to use instead when it decides to begin raising short-term interest rates.

High-frequency changes in interest rates around FOMC announcements are a standard method of measuring monetary policy shocks. However, some recent studies have documented puzzling effects of these shocks on private-sector forecasts of GDP, unemployment, or inflation that are opposite in sign to what standard macroeconomic models would predict. This evidence has been viewed as supportive of a "Fed information effect" channel of monetary policy, whereby an FOMC tightening (easing) communicates that the economy is stronger (weaker) than the public had expected. We show that these empirical results are also consistent with a "Fed response to news" channel, in which incoming, publicly available economic news causes both the Fed to change monetary policy and the private sector to revise its forecasts. We provide substantial new evidence that distinguishes between these two channels and strongly favors the latter; for example, (i) regressions that include the previously omitted public economic news, (ii) a new survey that we conduct of Blue Chip forecasters, and (iii) high-frequency financial market responses to FOMC announcements all suggest that the Fed and private sector are simply responding to the same public news, with relatively little role for a "Fed information effect".

United States FOMC Projection: Unemployment Rate: Range: Y3: Upper End data was reported at 4.000 % in Dec 2021. This stayed constant from the previous number of 4.000 % for Sep 2021. United States FOMC Projection: Unemployment Rate: Range: Y3: Upper End data is updated quarterly, averaging 4.200 % from Sep 2019 to Dec 2021, with 5 observations. The data reached an all-time high of 6.000 % in Sep 2020 and a record low of 4.000 % in Dec 2021. United States FOMC Projection: Unemployment Rate: Range: Y3: Upper End data remains active status in CEIC and is reported by Federal Reserve Board. The data is categorized under Global Database’s United States – Table US.G033: Current Population Survey: Unemployment Rate: Projection: Federal Reserve Board.

United States FOMC Projection: Change in Real GDP: Range: Y3: Upper End data was reported at 2.500 % in Dec 2024. This stayed constant from the previous number of 2.500 % for Sep 2024. United States FOMC Projection: Change in Real GDP: Range: Y3: Upper End data is updated quarterly, averaging 2.400 % from Sep 2015 (Median) to Dec 2024, with 21 observations. The data reached an all-time high of 4.000 % in Sep 2020 and a record low of 2.000 % in Sep 2017. United States FOMC Projection: Change in Real GDP: Range: Y3: Upper End data remains active status in CEIC and is reported by Federal Reserve Board. The data is categorized under Global Database’s United States – Table US.A026: NIPA 2023: GDP by Expenditure: Constant Price: saar: QoQ: Projection: Federal Reserve Board.

ECB and FED Speeches

This data contains speeches from European Central Bank (ECB) and Federal Reserve (FED) executives, from 1996 to 2025.

  Mistral OCR

In addition to the text provided by the Bank of International Settlements (BIS), we also added a new textual column derived extracting information from the source PDF files using Mistral's OCR API. Page breaks are identified with the

---[PAGE_BREAK]---

string.

FOMC Real GDP Growth Rate Projection - Historical chart and current data through 2025.

Dataset Description

This dataset contains the actual and predicted federal funds target rate for the United States from 1990 to 2023. The federal funds target rate is the interest rate at which depository institutions lend their excess reserves to each other overnight. It is set by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) and is a key tool used by the Federal Reserve to influence the economy.

The dataset includes the following five columns:

Release Date: The date on which the data was released by the Federal Reserve. Time: The time of day at which the data was released. Actual: The actual federal funds target rate. Predicted: The predicted federal funds target rate. Forecast: The forecast federal funds target rate.

Data Usage

This dataset can be used for a variety of purposes, including: - Analyzing trends in the federal funds target rate over time. - Forecasting the future path of the federal funds target rate. - Assessing the effectiveness of monetary policy. - Data Quality

The data for this dataset is of high quality. The Federal Reserve is a reputable source of data and the data is updated regularly.

Data Limitations

The data for this dataset is limited to the United States. Additionally, the data does not include information on the factors that influenced the Federal Open Market Committee's decision to set the federal funds target rate.

The data replicate tables and figures from "Transparency and Deliberation within the FOMC: a Computational Linguistics Approach", by Hansen, McMahon, and Prat. Please see the Readme file for additional details.

Croushore, Dean, and van Norden, Simon, (2018) “Fiscal Forecasts at the FOMC: Evidence from the Greenbooks.” Review of Economics and Statistics 100:5, 933-945.

United States FOMC Projection: Change in Real GDP: Central Tendency: Y3: Lower End data was reported at 1.800 % in Dec 2024. This stayed constant from the previous number of 1.800 % for Sep 2024. United States FOMC Projection: Change in Real GDP: Central Tendency: Y3: Lower End data is updated quarterly, averaging 1.800 % from Sep 2015 (Median) to Dec 2024, with 20 observations. The data reached an all-time high of 2.400 % in Sep 2020 and a record low of 1.500 % in Dec 2018. United States FOMC Projection: Change in Real GDP: Central Tendency: Y3: Lower End data remains active status in CEIC and is reported by Federal Reserve Board. The data is categorized under Global Database’s United States – Table US.A026: NIPA 2023: GDP by Expenditure: Constant Price: saar: QoQ: Projection: Federal Reserve Board.

Atlanta Fed Sticky CPI data was reported at 0.003 % in Apr 2025. This records an increase from the previous number of 0.002 % for Mar 2025. Atlanta Fed Sticky CPI data is updated monthly, averaging 0.003 % from Jan 1967 (Median) to Apr 2025, with 700 observations. The data reached an all-time high of 0.014 % in Jun 1980 and a record low of -0.005 % in Dec 1982. Atlanta Fed Sticky CPI data remains active status in CEIC and is reported by Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta. The data is categorized under Global Database’s United States – Table US.I: Sticky-Price CPI.

Content

The Chicago Fed's National Financial Conditions Index (NFCI) provides a comprehensive weekly update on U.S. financial conditions in money markets, debt and equity markets and the traditional and "shadow" banking systems. Positive values of the NFCI indicate financial conditions that are tighter than average, while negative values indicate financial conditions that are looser than average.

For further information, please visit the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago (http://www.chicagofed.org/webpages/publications/nfci/index.cfm).

Context

This is a dataset from the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago hosted by the Federal Reserve Economic Database (FRED). FRED has a data platform found here and they update their information according to the frequency that the data updates. Explore the Chicago Fed using Kaggle and all of the data sources available through the Chicago Fed organization page!

• Update Frequency: This dataset is updated daily.

• Observation Start: 1971-01-08

• Observation End : 2020-03-13

Acknowledgements

This dataset is maintained using FRED's API and Kaggle's API.

The license for this dataset is unknown. Please reach out directly to the Chicago Fed for more information on Commercial/Non-Commercial access.

Cover photo by Karina Carvalho on Unsplash
Unsplash Images are distributed under a unique Unsplash License.

United States Atlanta Fed Flexible CPI data was reported at -0.000 % in Apr 2025. This records an increase from the previous number of -0.006 % for Mar 2025. United States Atlanta Fed Flexible CPI data is updated monthly, averaging 0.003 % from Jan 1967 (Median) to Apr 2025, with 700 observations. The data reached an all-time high of 0.037 % in Sep 2005 and a record low of -0.057 % in Nov 2008. United States Atlanta Fed Flexible CPI data remains active status in CEIC and is reported by Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta. The data is categorized under Global Database’s United States – Table US.I: Sticky-Price CPI.

United States Coincident Index: Philadelphia Fed: Missouri data was reported at 119.679 NA in Jun 2018. This records an increase from the previous number of 119.242 NA for May 2018. United States Coincident Index: Philadelphia Fed: Missouri data is updated monthly, averaging 88.750 NA from Jan 1979 (Median) to Jun 2018, with 474 observations. The data reached an all-time high of 119.679 NA in Jun 2018 and a record low of 58.944 NA in Dec 1982. United States Coincident Index: Philadelphia Fed: Missouri data remains active status in CEIC and is reported by Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia. The data is categorized under Global Database’s USA – Table US.S008: State Coincident Index.

United States Coincident Index: Philadelphia Fed: Alabama data was reported at 121.299 NA in Oct 2018. This records an increase from the previous number of 121.064 NA for Sep 2018. United States Coincident Index: Philadelphia Fed: Alabama data is updated monthly, averaging 84.659 NA from Jan 1979 (Median) to Oct 2018, with 478 observations. The data reached an all-time high of 121.299 NA in Oct 2018 and a record low of 46.857 NA in Dec 1982. United States Coincident Index: Philadelphia Fed: Alabama data remains active status in CEIC and is reported by Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia. The data is categorized under Global Database’s United States – Table US.S007: State Coincident Index.

United States Atlanta Fed Core Sticky(CPI) Consumer Price Indexexcl Shelter: MoM Annualized data was reported at -0.727 % in Mar 2025. This records a decrease from the previous number of 2.357 % for Feb 2025. United States Atlanta Fed Core Sticky(CPI) Consumer Price Indexexcl Shelter: MoM Annualized data is updated monthly, averaging 3.280 % from Jan 1967 (Median) to Mar 2025, with 699 observations. The data reached an all-time high of 15.838 % in Jun 1974 and a record low of -6.303 % in Apr 2020. United States Atlanta Fed Core Sticky(CPI) Consumer Price Indexexcl Shelter: MoM Annualized data remains active status in CEIC and is reported by Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta. The data is categorized under Global Database’s United States – Table US.I024: Sticky-Price CPI.