Graph and download economic data for FOMC Summary of Economic Projections for the Fed Funds Rate, Median (FEDTARMD) from 2025 to 2027 about projection, federal, median, rate, and USA.

I estimate the effects of FOMC announcements, post-FOMC press conferences, and speeches and Congressional testimony by the Fed Chair on stock prices, Treasury yields, and interest rate futures from 1988–2019. I show that for all but the very shortest-maturity interest rate futures, Fed Chair speeches are more important than FOMC announcements. My results suggest that the previous literature’s focus on FOMC announcements has ignored the most important source of variation in U.S. monetary policy.

Graph and download economic data for FOMC Summary of Economic Projections for the Growth Rate of Real Gross Domestic Product, Central Tendency, Midpoint (GDPC1CTM) from 2025 to 2027 about projection, real, GDP, rate, and USA.

High-frequency changes in interest rates around FOMC announcements are a standard method of measuring monetary policy shocks. However, some recent studies have documented puzzling effects of these shocks on private-sector forecasts of GDP, unemployment, or inflation that are opposite in sign to what standard macroeconomic models would predict. This evidence has been viewed as supportive of a "Fed information effect" channel of monetary policy, whereby an FOMC tightening (easing) communicates that the economy is stronger (weaker) than the public had expected. We show that these empirical results are also consistent with a "Fed response to news" channel, in which incoming, publicly available economic news causes both the Fed to change monetary policy and the private sector to revise its forecasts. We provide substantial new evidence that distinguishes between these two channels and strongly favors the latter; for example, (i) regressions that include the previously omitted public economic news, (ii) a new survey that we conduct of Blue Chip forecasters, and (iii) high-frequency financial market responses to FOMC announcements all suggest that the Fed and private sector are simply responding to the same public news, with relatively little role for a "Fed information effect".

The Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey on Bank Lending Practices (SLOOS) surveys up to 80 large domestic banks and 24 U.S. branches and agencies of foreign banks. The Federal Reserve generally conducts the survey quarterly, timing it so that results are available for the January/February, April/May, August, and October/November meetings of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC). The Federal Reserve occasionally conducts one or two additional surveys during the year. Questions cover changes in the standards and terms of the banks' lending and the state of business and household demand for loans. The survey often includes questions on other topics of current interest. The survey results are released on Mondays after the FOMC meeting.

Hydrographic and Impairment Statistics (HIS) is a National Park Service (NPS) Water Resources Division (WRD) project established to track certain goals created in response to the Government Performance and Results Act of 1993 (GPRA). One water resources management goal established by the Department of the Interior under GRPA requires NPS to track the percent of its managed surface waters that are meeting Clean Water Act (CWA) water quality standards. This goal requires an accurate inventory that spatially quantifies the surface water hydrography that each bureau manages and a procedure to determine and track which waterbodies are or are not meeting water quality standards as outlined by Section 303(d) of the CWA. This project helps meet this DOI GRPA goal by inventorying and monitoring in a geographic information system for the NPS: (1) CWA 303(d) quality impaired waters and causes; and (2) hydrographic statistics based on the United States Geological Survey (USGS) National Hydrography Dataset (NHD). Hydrographic and 303(d) impairment statistics were evaluated based on a combination of 1:24,000 (NHD) and finer scale data (frequently provided by state GIS layers).

Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) projections are important because they provide information for evaluating current monetary policy intentions and because they indicate what FOMC members think will be the likely consequence of their policies. Knowing the Fed's objectives, their forecasts, and recent deviations of the economy from the forecasts should be sufficient to understand how the Fed is making monetary policy. Results here show that the Blue Chip consensus forecasts are a good proxy for the FOMC views. For example, they match the policymakers' views as closely as do the Board staff forecasts presented at FOMC meetings. Using alternative forms of the Taylor rule, the authors show that the Blue Chip consensus and the Fed policymakers' forecasts have almost identical implications for the monetary policy process.

For many years prior to the global financial crisis, the Federal Open Market Committee set a target for the federal funds rate and achieved that target through small purchases and sales of securities in the open market. In the aftermath of the financial crisis, with a superabundant level of reserve balances in the banking system having been created as a result of the Federal Reserve's large-scale asset purchase programs, this approach to implementing monetary policy will no longer work. This paper provides a primer on the Fed's implementation of monetary policy. We use the standard textbook model to illustrate why the approach used by the Federal Reserve before the financial crisis to keep the federal funds rate near the Federal Open Market Committee's target will not work in current circumstances, and explain the approach that the Committee intends to use instead when it decides to begin raising short-term interest rates.

Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index in the United States increased to 15.90 points in July from -4 points in June of 2025. This dataset provides the latest reported value for - United States Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index - plus previous releases, historical high and low, short-term forecast and long-term prediction, economic calendar, survey consensus and news.

I estimate various backward-looking and forward-looking Taylor rules augmented with variables that indicate proximity to an election and whether the Fed Chair and the majority of a chamber of Congress share the same political party affiliation to investigate whether Congress has influenced Federal Reserve policy from 1961 to 2020. I find that the Fed is susceptible to pressures from the Senate. In line with previous work, left-leaning politicians exhibit a higher tolerance for inflation. This results in the federal funds rate being lower by about 2.35 points when the Democratic party has a Senate majority. Second, while I find some evidence that the House and the Fed Chair sharing partisan affiliation results in tighter policy, this result is not robust to alternative measures of inflation. Finally, I find persuasive evidence that Congressional pressures on the Fed do not create a political monetary cycle around elections.

The inflation rate in the United States declined significantly between June 2022 and May 2025, despite rising inflationary pressures towards the end of 2024. The peak inflation rate was recorded in June 2022, at *** percent. In August 2023, the Federal Reserve's interest rate hit its highest level during the observed period, at **** percent, and remained unchanged until September 2024, when the Federal Reserve implemented its first rate cut since September 2021. By January 2025, the rate dropped to **** percent, signalling a shift in monetary policy. What is the Federal Reserve interest rate? The Federal Reserve interest rate, or the federal funds rate, is the rate at which banks and credit unions lend to and borrow from each other. It is one of the Federal Reserve's key tools for maintaining strong employment rates, stable prices, and reasonable interest rates. The rate is determined by the Federal Reserve and adjusted eight times a year, though it can be changed through emergency meetings during times of crisis. The Fed doesn't directly control the interest rate but sets a target rate. It then uses open market operations to influence rates toward this target. Ways of measuring inflation Inflation is typically measured using several methods, with the most common being the Consumer Price Index (CPI). The CPI tracks the price of a fixed basket of goods and services over time, providing a measure of the price changes consumers face. At the end of 2023, the CPI in the United States was ****** percent, up from ****** a year earlier. A more business-focused measure is the producer price index (PPI), which represents the costs of firms.

View the total value of the assets of all Federal Reserve Banks as reported in the weekly balance sheet.

Graph and download economic data for 30-Year Fixed Rate Conforming Mortgage Index: Loan-to-Value Greater Than 80, FICO Score Greater Than 740 (OBMMIC30YFLVGT80FGE740) from 2017-01-03 to 2025-07-31 about score, 30-year, fixed, mortgage, rate, indexes, and USA.

Graph and download economic data for Large Bank Consumer Mortgage Balances: Current Credit Score: 50th Percentile (RCMFLBSCOREPCT50) from Q3 2012 to Q1 2025 about score, FR Y-14M, large, percentile, balance, credits, mortgage, consumer, banks, depository institutions, and USA.

Graph and download economic data for Large Bank Consumer Credit Card Originations: Original Credit Score: 50th Percentile (RCCCOSCOREPCT50) from Q3 2012 to Q1 2025 about score, FR Y-14M, origination, consumer credit, credit cards, large, percentile, credits, loans, consumer, banks, depository institutions, and USA.

Philly Fed CAPEX Index in the United States increased to 17.10 points in July from 14.50 points in June of 2025. This dataset includes a chart with historical data for the United States Philly Fed CAPEX Index.

Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index in the United States decreased to -20 points in July from -8 points in June of 2025. This dataset provides - United States Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index - actual values, historical data, forecast, chart, statistics, economic calendar and news.

This series is found in Assets and Liabilities of FDIC-Insured Commercial Banks and Savings Institutions.

The Quarterly Banking Profile is a quarterly publication that provides the earliest comprehensive summary of financial results for all FDIC-insured institutions.

See Notes to Users (https://www.fdic.gov/analysis/quarterly-banking-profile/qbp/timeseries/qbpnot.pdf) for more information.

Inflation Rate in the United States increased to 2.70 percent in June from 2.40 percent in May of 2025. This dataset provides - United States Inflation Rate - actual values, historical data, forecast, chart, statistics, economic calendar and news.

Graph and download economic data for Large Bank Consumer Mortgage Originations: Original Credit Score: 25th Percentile (RCMFLOSCOREPCT25) from Q3 2012 to Q1 2025 about score, FR Y-14M, origination, large, percentile, credits, mortgage, consumer, banks, depository institutions, and USA.