In March 2025, the inflation rate for food prices in the United Kingdom was measured at three percent. A period of continuous deflation between March 2015 and January 2017 preceded a return to a sustained rise in the cost of food from February 2017 onwards. While food prices were deflating between September 2020 and July 2021, they started increasing rapidly from August 2021 to March 2023. The inflation rate started to decline from April 2023. Inflation rate and consumer price indexInflation is commonly measured via the consumer price index, which illustrates changes to prices paid by consumers for a representative basket of goods and services. An annualized percentage change in the price index constitutes a measure of inflation. In order to maintain an inflation rate at a stable level, to enable the general public and businesses to plan their spending, the Government set a two percent inflation target for the Bank of England. The discounter boom The increase in food prices in the United Kingdom has shifted shopping behaviours amongst consumers. Value is now key and shoppers are changing their retailer loyalties. Aldi, the German discount supermarket retailer, overtook Morrisons as Great Britain's fourth largest supermarket in September of 2022. Aldi's market share reached double digits for the first time in April 2023. It is yet to be seen if Lidl, Aldi's discounter competitor, can also continue to rise up in the ranks and eventually take over Morrisons as the fifth leading food retailer.

The inflation rate for food and drink in the United Kingdom was *** percent in Q1 2025, which was below the overall inflation rate for that quarter.

In May 2025, the UK inflation rate for goods was two percent and 4.7 percent for services. Prices for goods accelerated significantly, sharply between in 2021 and 2022 before falling in 2023. By comparison, prices for services initially grew at a more moderate rate, but have also not fallen as quickly. The overall CPI inflation rate for the UK reached a recent high of 11.1 percent in October 2022 and remained in double-figures until April 2023, when it fell to 8.7 percent. As of this month, the UK's inflation rate was 2.6 percent, down from 2.8 percent in the previous month. Sectors driving high inflation In late 2024, communication was the sector with the highest inflation rate, with prices increasing by 6.1 percent as of December 2024. During the recent period of high inflation that eased in 2023, food and energy prices were particular high, with housing and energy inflation far higher than in any other sector, peaking at 26.6 percent towards the end of 2022. High food and energy prices since 2021 have been one of the main causes of the cost of living crisis in the UK, especially for low-income households that spend a higher share of their income on these categories. This is likely one of the factors driving increasing food bank usage in the UK, which saw approximately 3.12 million people use a food bank in 2023/24, compared with 1.9 million just before the COVID-19 pandemic. The global inflation crisis The UK has not been alone in suffering rapid price increases since 2021. After the start of the COVID-19 pandemic, a series of economic and geopolitical shocks had a dramatic impact on the global economy. A global supply chain crisis failed to meet rising demand in 2021, leading to the beginning of an Inflation Crisis, which was only exacerbated by Russia's invasion of Ukraine in February 2022. The war directly influenced the prices of food and energy, as both countries were major exporters of important crops. European imports of hydrocarbons from Russia were also steadily reduced throughout 2022 and 2023, resulting in higher energy prices throughout the year.

The UK inflation rate was 3.4 percent in May 2025, down from 3.5 percent in the previous month, and the fastest rate of inflation since February 2024. Between September 2022 and March 2023, the UK experienced seven months of double-digit inflation, which peaked at 11.1 percent in October 2022. Due to this long period of high inflation, UK consumer prices have increased by over 20 percent in the last three years. As of the most recent month, prices were rising fastest in the communications sector, at 6.1 percent, but were falling in both the furniture and transport sectors, at -0.3 percent and -0.6 percent respectively.
The Cost of Living Crisis High inflation is one of the main factors behind the ongoing Cost of Living Crisis in the UK, which, despite subsiding somewhat in 2024, is still impacting households going into 2025. In December 2024, for example, 56 percent of UK households reported their cost of living was increasing compared with the previous month, up from 45 percent in July, but far lower than at the height of the crisis in 2022. After global energy prices spiraled that year, the UK's energy price cap increased substantially. The cap, which limits what suppliers can charge consumers, reached 3,549 British pounds per year in October 2022, compared with 1,277 pounds a year earlier. Along with soaring food costs, high-energy bills have hit UK households hard, especially lower income ones that spend more of their earnings on housing costs. As a result of these factors, UK households experienced their biggest fall in living standards in decades in 2022/23. Global inflation crisis causes rapid surge in prices The UK's high inflation, and cost of living crisis in 2022 had its origins in the COVID-19 pandemic. Following the initial waves of the virus, global supply chains struggled to meet the renewed demand for goods and services. Food and energy prices, which were already high, increased further in 2022. Russia's invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 brought an end to the era of cheap gas flowing to European markets from Russia. The war also disrupted global food markets, as both Russia and Ukraine are major exporters of cereal crops. As a result of these factors, inflation surged across Europe and in other parts of the world, but typically declined in 2023, and approached more usual levels by 2024.

Measures of monthly UK inflation data including CPIH, CPI and RPI. These tables complement the consumer price inflation time series dataset.

In the most recently reported period, personal care products saw some of the highest year-over-year price changes among non-food consumer goods categories in the United Kingdom, at some *** percent. In July 2023, the price inflation for clothing, footwear, and furniture products also increased by over *** percent.

As of the first quarter of 2025, the CPIH index in the United Kingdom was ***** indicating that consumer goods and services had increased in price by **** percent when compared with the baseline year of 2015. In March 2025, the CPIH inflation rate was *** percent, unchanged from the previous month. The CPIH index is the consumer price index, which also includes costs related to owning and maintaining a home. Inflation falls to more usual levels in 2024 After reaching a peak of *** percent in October 2022, the CPIH inflation rate fell throughout 2023 and into 2024, eventually falling to a low of *** percent in October 2024. Although the decline in energy inflation led to a significant fall in prices early in the 2023, other aspects of inflation, such as food prices remained high for a longer period. Throughout 2023 inflation in the UK was still quite high across many sectors, indicated by persistently high core inflation (inflation excluding food and energy prices) rates reported that year. UK economy continues to struggle Since the COVID-19 pandemic, the UK's economic performance has been quite lackluster. Although the economy bounced back from the initial drop in GDP caused by lockdowns, it has alternated between months of low growth and declines in GDP since 2021. In the last two quarters of 2023, the UK economy shrank by *** percent, and then by *** percent. As a result, the UK economy officially ended 2023 in a technical recession. While growth picked up in the first half of 2024, there was no growth in the third quarter of the year.

Inflation Rate in the United Kingdom decreased to 3.40 percent in May from 3.50 percent in April of 2025. This dataset provides - United Kingdom Inflation Rate - actual values, historical data, forecast, chart, statistics, economic calendar and news.

Graph and download economic data for Consumer Price Index: OECD Groups: All Items Non-Food Non-Energy: Total for United Kingdom (CPGRLE01GBQ657N) from Q2 1970 to Q3 2023 about core, United Kingdom, all items, CPI, inflation, price index, indexes, and price.

In October 2024, *** percent of surveyed consumers in the United Kingdom stated that they could not afford to eat a healthy diet. Another *** percent consumed food after its use-by-date because they could not afford more food.

Key information about United Kingdom CPI: Food and Non Alcoholic Beverage Change

• United Kingdom CPI: Food and Non Alcoholic Beverage Change was reported at 3.269 % in Jan 2025.
• This records an increase from the previous number of 1.999 % for Dec 2024.
• United Kingdom CPI: Food and Non Alcoholic Beverage Change data is updated monthly, averaging 2.067 % from Jan 1989 to Jan 2025, with 433 observations.
• The data reached an all-time high of 19.174 % in Mar 2023 and a record low of -3.349 % in Feb 2015.
• United Kingdom CPI: Food and Non Alcoholic Beverage Change data remains active status in CEIC and is reported by CEIC Data.
• The data is categorized under World Trend Plus’s Global Economic Monitor – Table: CPI: Food and Non Alcoholic Beverage: Y-o-Y Growth: Monthly.

In 2024, the annual inflation rate for the United Kingdom was 2.5 percent, with the average rate for 2025 predicted to rise to 3.2 percent, revised upwards from an earlier prediction of 2.6 percent. The UK has only recently recovered from a period of elevated inflation, which saw the CPI rate reach 9.1 percent in 2022, and 7.3 percent in 2023. Despite an uptick in inflation expected in 2025, the inflation rate is expected to fall to 2.1 percent in 2026, and two percent between 2027 and 2029. UK inflation crisis Between 2021 and 2023, inflation surged in the UK, reaching a 41-year-high of 11.1 percent in October 2022. Although inflation fell to more usual levels by 2024, prices in the UK had already increased by over 20 percent relative to the start of the crisis. The two main drivers of price increases during this time were food and energy inflation, two of the main spending areas of UK households. Although food and energy prices came down quite sharply in 2023, underlying core inflation, which measures prices rises without food and energy, remained slightly above the headline inflation rate throughout 2024, suggesting some aspects of inflation had become embedded in the UK economy. Inflation rises across in the world in 2022 The UK was not alone in suffering from runaway inflation over the last few years. From late 2021 onwards, various factors converged to encourage a global acceleration of prices, leading to the ongoing inflation crisis. Blocked-up supply chains were one of the main factors as the world emerged from the COVID-19 pandemic. This was followed by energy and food inflation skyrocketing after Russia's invasion of Ukraine. Central bank interest rates were raised globally in response to the problem, possibly putting an end to the era of cheap money that has defined monetary policy since the financial crash of 2008.

In 2024, approximately ** percent of respondents in England, Wales, and Northern Ireland stated that they have concerns about food prices. This was the most common food-related concern among consumers. Moreover, the share of respondents who have concerns about food waste was abou**** percent. Food price inflation in the UK Food prices have been a major concern for households in the United Kingdom (UK) in recent years. In August 2021, the inflation rate for food prices started to increase in the UK was measured at *** percent. Food prices started to climb rapidly in the following months, peaking at **** percent in March 2023. The inflation rate started to decline from April 2023 and was measured at *** percent in October 2024. Given this spike in food prices, many UK consumers worry about their households not being able to afford food in the next month. This concern is highest in Northern Ireland, where ** percent of consumers stated this as a concern. The North East region follows, with ** percent of consumers being concerned about not being able to afford food next month. Food concerns in the UK by age group British consumers between the ages of 35 and 44 are most worried about affording food for themselves and their households. Approximately ** percent of consumers in this age group state this as a concern. Younger age groups display similar levels of concern, while the share of consumers worried about this issue among the elderly population is considerably lower. An issue with even higher levels of concern is the quality of food produced in the UK. The share of concerned consumers regarding this issue in the middle and younger age groups ranges between 54 and 56 percent. Concern levels on this topic also decline with age. By contrast, genetically modified food in the UK is a topic that particularly concerns older age groups. The younger the age group, the less concerned they are with this topic, although concern levels regarding genetically modified food are above or close to half of the consumers in each age group.

The performance of the hospitality sector, consumer spending habits and supermarket demand are the key factors affecting the Grocery Wholesaling industry. Over the five years through 2024-25, revenue is forecast to grow at a compound annual rate of 2% to £44.2 billion, including an anticipated hike of 0.7% in 2024-25. Inflation has played a big role in the industry’s recent performance. Food prices reached record highs in March 2023, with the Office for National Statistics reporting they climbed by 19.3% over the year, primarily due to the Russia-Ukraine conflict. Consumers responded to sky-high prices by trading down and eating out less, denting sales to supermarkets and hospitality venues; still, rising prices kept revenue growing. Food inflation has since fallen considerably, paving the way for growth in consumer confidence. However, food prices rose by 3.3% in the year to January 2025. While this is much lower than the peak in March 2023, food inflation had been trending downward in previous months (October to December 2024). High prices have limited sales volumes and increased the rate of wholesale bypass. Revenue is slated to swell at a compound annual rate of 2% over the five years through 2029-30 to £48.7 billion. As inflation stabilises, pressure on household finances will ease and boost consumer confidence. According to the Bank of England's projections in February 2025, inflation will rise to 3.7% at the end of Q3 2025, before easing slowly back to its target 2% in Q4 2027. This recovery will raise grocery sales, particularly in the hospitality sector. At the same time, consumers will trade up to higher-priced, healthier and sustainably sourced products, boosting revenue and profit. However, threats remain; wholesale bypass, the rise of farmers markets and rising demand for fresh, healthy products will continue to present challenges to grocery wholesalers, eating into sales. Upcoming hikes in the National Living Wage and employers’ National Insurance contributions are set to drive up wholesalers’ costs, hindering profitability.

Grocery markets' performance is sensitive to the level of household disposable income, health consciousness, environmental awareness and competition from other grocery retailers like supermarkets. Health consciousness and environmental awareness are ever-growing, with individuals more concerned about the provenance of their food. Organic, sustainable and local products are growing in popularity and boosting revenue as consumers are happy to pay a premium for higher-quality goods with traceable production. Grocery markets experienced a 45-year high in food price inflation in 2023, with similar rises in the cost of domestic and imported food inputs, placing significant pressure on stall operators' purchase costs. Local councils, faced with tight budgets, raised the price of pitch rents, adding to the operational costs of stall operators. A combination of these two things and depressed purchasing power among shoppers led to a drop in sales volumes. In 2024-25, revenue is forecast to grow by 0.4%, supported by growth in consumer confidence. Over the five years through 2024-25, industry-wide revenue is anticipated to grow at a compound annual rate of 8.3% to £370.8 million, supported by growing spend on premium products like artisan bread and organic meats, as real wages recover. Looking forward, supermarket competition will continue to rise. Grocery markets must find innovative ways to boost their competitiveness by improving the shopping experience, like subscription-type models, speedy delivery or personalised services and expanding the product range. Grocery markets' revenue is forecast to grow at a compound annual rate of 9.7% to reach £589.1 million over the five years through 2029-30.

Between December 31, 2022, and **************, prices of non-edible consumer packaged goods remained inflationary at an index level above 100, reaching *** as of **************. Non-edible consumer goods include products in the beauty and health, household products, and other non-food categories. A level above 100 was considered to be inflationary, whereas a level below 100 denoted deflation.

A weak spending environment amid economic headwinds casts a shadow over industry performance. Squeezed budgets amid the cost-of-living crisis were a double-edged sword for takeaways and fast-food restaurants over the two years through 2023-24: some consumers cut back on takeaways, while others traded down from full-service restaurants to takeaways and fast food. Inflationary pressures resulted in hikes in labour, energy and sourcing costs, straining profitability. Those with higher disposable incomes have been less impacted, demanding higher quality and healthier options, typically with a higher price tag. Subsiding inflation and growing consumer confidence support spending in 2024-25, though economic uncertainty persists and limits growth. Revenue is projected to drop at a compound annual growth rate of 0.8% over the five years through 2024-25, reflecting ongoing challenges. However, forecast growth of 2.1% in 2024-25 suggests a rebound in the industry as cost-of-living pressures subside. The surge of online food ordering has fuelled revenue growth. While online sales peaked during the pandemic, consumers drawn to convenience have become accustomed to ordering takeaways and fast food online. The development of state-of-the-art online platforms and third-party online ordering platforms like Deliveroo and Uber Eats are becoming the bread and butter for takeaway and fast-food outlets, encouraging new players into the industry. Britons' growing health and sustainability consciousness presents an opportunity for takeaway and fast-food businesses to introduce more expensive organic and meat-free menu items to boost revenue and profit. Britons’ tastes for healthy and sustainable takeaway options will continue to climb. Stricter legislation regarding the adverse effects of consuming junk food will promote product development innovation and healthy fast-food alternatives, driving additional revenue streams. As workers return to the office more permanently, demand for takeaway lunch options will swell. Fast food chains will pump money into aggressive expansion plans to secure market share and streamline costs. Investment in marketing will likely swell as operators turn to social media and online advertising to attract younger consumers and secure long-term revenues. Spending on innovation will persist as major players leverage AI and technology advancements to differentiate themselves from competitors and further demand. Revenue is forecast to climb at a compound annual rate of 2.9% to £26.6 billion over the years through 2029-30.

The FAO Food Price Index (FFPI) averaged 124.9 points in January 2025, down 2.1 points from December 2024. The highest value for the index in the past 23 years was reached in March 2022. However, the rate of food price increases has been decreasing since.

Food prices worldwide The annual FAO Food Price Index (FFPI) by category shows that the price of vegetable oils grew by a particularly large margin. One of the factors that influenced the spike in oil prices worldwide during 2020 and 2021 were the supply-chain disruptions during the COVID-19 pandemic. Moreover, after the war in Ukraine, shipping costs and grain prices also had a noticeable impact on global food prices. Global food prices are calculated to have increased by 3.68 percent, due to changes in shipping costs and grain prices. The European Union (EU) has experienced a particularly high increase in the annual consumer prices for food and non-alcoholic beverages, as compared to other selected countries worldwide. Inflation in Europe

The inflation rate for food in the EU grew from 0.2 percent in May 2021 to 19.2 percent in March 2023, as compared to the same month in the previous year. In the following months, the food inflation started decreasing again, reaching 1.86 percent in April 2024. The overall inflation rate in the Euro area reached its peak in December 2022 at 9.2 percent. The rate has since fallen to 2.4 percent in December 2024. As measured by the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), inflation rates in Europe were highest in Turkey, North Macedonia, and Romania as of December 2024.

The Supermarkets industry has undergone something of a shift over the past decade – discounters Aldi and Lidl have penetrated the customer base of the traditional “Big Four” supermarkets (Tesco, Sainsbury’s, Asda and Morrisons), with their low prices and improving quality of products resonating with price-conscious shoppers. Over the five years through 2024-25, supermarkets' revenue is forecast to dip at a compound annual rate of 1.1% to £192.1 billion, though it's expected to inch up by 0.6% in 2024-25. Grocery price inflation has eased in 2024-25, with this stabilisation supporting consumer confidence, which has sparked greater sales volumes across major supermarket chains. Over the five years through 2024-25, the cost-of-living crisis has constrained households’ budgets, with shoppers spending less on non-essentials, shopping around more and turning to discount supermarkets. The landscape for UK supermarkets has been characterised by intense competition and emerging consumer trends. Discount retailers like Lidl and Aldi have aggressively expanded their market presence by capitalising on streamlined supply chains and low operational costs, enticing budget-conscious shoppers. Their success has prompted traditional supermarkets to embark on price wars and promotional strategies like Aldi price matches, illustrating the sector's dynamic nature. Concurrently, loyalty programmes have proven instrumental in bolstering supermarkets' profitability. Tesco, for instance, reported exponential growth in its Clubcard membership, thereby solidifying its market share. Looking forward, consumer preferences for quick and convenient shopping will threaten the traditional weekly shop. Convenience stores are likely to benefit from the little, local and often trend, stealing sales away from supermarkets. Sustainability is a growing concern for both shoppers and supermarkets. As disposable incomes recover, shoppers will emphasise sustainably produced, sourced and packaged products. Supermarkets will invest heavily in decarbonising their operations by purchasing electric fleets. However, additional costs caused by hikes to employers’ National Insurance contribution outlined in the 2024 Autumn Budget will force supermarkets to pass on additional costs to consumers, threatening their price competitiveness. Over the five years through 2029-30, supermarkets' revenue is forecast to swell at a compound annual rate of 2.1% to £213.4 billion.