Forecast: Bank Lending Interest Rate in Canada 2022 - 2026 Discover more data with ReportLinker!

More than three million mortgage loans are projected to be affected by the increasing mortgage interest rates in Canada by 2025. About one million of these mortgages are projected to be up for renewal in 2024. These loans were taken out at a time when interest rates were much lower, meaning that homeowners will be affected by a notable increase in their monthly payments.

Canada CA: Long-Term Interest Rate: Government Bonds: Double Hit Scenario data was reported at 1.100 % in 2021. This records a decrease from the previous number of 1.127 % for 2020. Canada CA: Long-Term Interest Rate: Government Bonds: Double Hit Scenario data is updated yearly, averaging 5.912 % from Dec 1960 (Median) to 2021, with 62 observations. The data reached an all-time high of 14.989 % in 1981 and a record low of 1.100 % in 2021. Canada CA: Long-Term Interest Rate: Government Bonds: Double Hit Scenario data remains active status in CEIC and is reported by Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development. The data is categorized under Global Database’s Canada – Table CA.OECD.EO: Interest Rate: Forecast: OECD Member: Annual. IRL - Long-term interest rate on government bonds; Yield 10-year federal government benchmark bond)

Canada's inflation rate experienced significant fluctuations from 2018 to 2025. Inflation peaked at 8.1 percent in June 2022 before steadily declining to 1.9 percent by January 2025. In response to rising inflation between 2020 and 2022, the Bank of Canada implemented aggressive interest rate hikes. The bank rate reached a maximum of 5.25 percent in July 2023 and remained stable until June 2024. As inflationary pressures eased in the second half of 2024, the central bank reduced interest rates to 3.5 percent in December 2024. This pattern reflected broader global economic trends, with most advanced and emerging economies experiencing similar inflationary challenges and monetary policy adjustments. Global context of inflation and interest rates The Canadian experience aligns with the broader international trend of central banks raising policy rates to combat inflation. Between 2021 and 2023, nearly all advanced and emerging economies increased their central bank rates. However, a shift occurred in the latter half of 2024, with many countries, including Canada, beginning to lower rates. This change suggests a new phase in the global economic cycle and monetary policy approach. Notably, among surveyed countries, Russia maintained the highest interest rate in early 2025, while Japan had the lowest rate. Comparison with the United States The United States experienced a similar trajectory in inflation and interest rates. U.S. inflation peaked at 9.1 percent in June 2022, slightly higher than Canada's peak. The Federal Reserve responded with a series of rate hikes, reaching 5.33 percent in August 2023. This rate remained unchanged until September 2024, when the first cut since September 2021 was implemented. In contrast, Canada's bank rate peaked at 5.25 percent and began decreasing earlier, with cuts in June and July 2024. These differences highlight the nuanced approaches of central banks in managing their respective economies amid global inflationary pressures.

Key information about Canada Long Term Interest Rate

• Canada Government Benchmark Bonds Yield: Month End: 10 Years was reported at 2.90 % pa in Feb 2025, compared with 3.07 % pa in the previous month.
• Canada Long Term Interest Rate data is updated monthly, available from Jan 1993 to Feb 2025.
• The data reached an all-time high of 9.28 % pa in Jun 1994 and a record low of 0.46 % pa in Jul 2020.
• Long Term Interest Rate is reported by reported by Bank of Canada.

• In the latest reports, Canada Short Term Interest Rate: Month End: Treasury Bills Yield: 3 Months was reported at 2.82 % pa in Feb 2025.
• The cash rate (Policy Rate: Month End: Overnight Target Rate) was set at 3.00 % pa in Feb 2025.
• Canada Exchange Rate against USD averaged 1.33 (USD/CAD) in Jun 2023.

A tabular presentation of private sector Canadian interest rate forecast, includes 2012 and 2013 average annual percent interest rate by financial institution, for both 3-month Treasury Bills and 10-year Government Bonds, as of January 05, 2012

Canada Conventional Mortgage: 5 Years: Weekly data was reported at 6.490 % pa in 05 Mar 2025. This stayed constant from the previous number of 6.490 % pa for 26 Feb 2025. Canada Conventional Mortgage: 5 Years: Weekly data is updated weekly, averaging 5.700 % pa from Jan 2000 (Median) to 05 Mar 2025, with 1314 observations. The data reached an all-time high of 8.750 % pa in 31 May 2000 and a record low of 4.640 % pa in 12 Jul 2017. Canada Conventional Mortgage: 5 Years: Weekly data remains active status in CEIC and is reported by Bank of Canada. The data is categorized under Global Database’s Canada – Table CA.M005: Conventional Mortgage Rate. [COVID-19-IMPACT]

In January 2025, global inflation rates and central bank interest rates showed significant variation across major economies. Most economies initiated interest rate cuts from mid-2024 due to declining inflationary pressures. The U.S., UK, and EU central banks followed a consistent pattern of regular rate reductions throughout late 2024. In early 2025, Russia maintained the highest interest rate at 21 percent, while Japan retained the lowest at 0.5 percent. Varied inflation rates across major economies The inflation landscape varies considerably among major economies. China had the lowest inflation rate at 0.5 percent in January 2025. In contrast, Russia maintained a high inflation rate of 9.9 percent. These figures align with broader trends observed in early 2025, where China had the lowest inflation rate among major developed and emerging economies, while Russia's rate remained the highest. Central bank responses and economic indicators Central banks globally implemented aggressive rate hikes throughout 2022-23 to combat inflation. The European Central Bank exemplified this trend, raising rates from 0 percent in January 2022 to 4.5 percent by September 2023. A coordinated shift among major central banks began in mid-2024, with the ECB, Bank of England, and Federal Reserve initiating rate cuts, with forecasts suggesting further cuts through 2025 and 2026.

A tabular presentation of private sector Canadian interest rate forecast, includes 2013 and 2014 average annual percent interest rate by financial institution, for both 3-month Treasury Bills and 10-year Government Bonds, as of May 23, 2013

Inflation Rate in Canada increased to 2.60 percent in February from 1.90 percent in January of 2025. This dataset provides - Canada Inflation Rate - actual values, historical data, forecast, chart, statistics, economic calendar and news.

A tabular presentation of interest rate forecasts for Canadian 3-month Treasury Bills and 10-year Government Bonds in 2012 and 2013 by 6 private sector institutions.

Canada CA: Deposit Interest Rate data was reported at 0.100 % pa in 2017. This stayed constant from the previous number of 0.100 % pa for 2016. Canada CA: Deposit Interest Rate data is updated yearly, averaging 3.917 % pa from Dec 1971 (Median) to 2017, with 47 observations. The data reached an all-time high of 15.958 % pa in 1981 and a record low of 0.075 % pa in 2015. Canada CA: Deposit Interest Rate data remains active status in CEIC and is reported by World Bank. The data is categorized under Global Database’s Canada – Table CA.World Bank.WDI: Interest Rates. Deposit interest rate is the rate paid by commercial or similar banks for demand, time, or savings deposits. The terms and conditions attached to these rates differ by country, however, limiting their comparability.;International Monetary Fund, International Financial Statistics and data files.;;

Mortgage interest rates worldwide varied greatly in 2024, from less than four percent in many European countries, to as high as 44 percent in Turkey. The average mortgage rate in a country depends on the central bank's base lending rate and macroeconomic indicators such as inflation and forecast economic growth. Since 2022, inflationary pressures have led to rapid increase in mortgage interest rates. Which are the leading mortgage markets? An easy way to estimate the importance of the mortgage sector in each country is by comparing household debt depth, or the ratio of the debt held by households compared to the county's GDP. In 2023, Switzerland, Australia, and Canada had some of the highest household debt to GDP ratios worldwide. While this indicator shows the size of the sector relative to the country’s economy, the value of mortgages outstanding allows to compare the market size in different countries. In Europe, for instance, the United Kingdom, Germany, and France were the largest mortgage markets by outstanding mortgage lending. Mortgage lending trends in the U.S. In the United States, new mortgage lending soared in 2021. This was largely due to the growth of new refinance loans that allow homeowners to renegotiate their mortgage terms and replace their existing loan with a more favorable one. Following the rise in interest rates, the mortgage market cooled, and refinance loans declined.

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Home Equity Lending Market Size 2025-2029

The home equity lending market size is forecast to increase by USD 48.16 billion at a CAGR of 4.7% between 2024 and 2029.

The market is experiencing significant growth due to several key trends. One major factor driving market expansion is the massive increase in home prices, which has resulted in homeowners having more equity in their properties. Another trend is the rise in residential property values, leading to an increase in the number of homeowners with sufficient equity to access loans or lines of credit, with property management and digital lending playing a significant role in facilitating these transactions.
However, the lengthy procedures involved in securing these loans can present challenges for both lenders and borrowers. Despite this, the benefits of lending, such as lower interest rates compared to other types of debt, make it an attractive option for many consumers looking to finance home improvements, debt consolidation, or other major expenses. Overall, the market is poised for continued growth in the coming years.

What will be the Size of the Home Equity Lending Market During the Forecast Period?

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The market in the United States has experienced significant growth, driven by the increasing collateral value of residential real estate and the resulting equity available to borrowers. Monetary authorities' efforts to keep inflation in check and stable housing prices have contributed to this trend. Homeowners have utilized loans and lines of credit to fund various expenses, including home improvements, tax deductions, and debt consolidation.



The interest rate on these loans often remains competitive with other forms of borrowing, making them an attractive option for many. Banks and credit unions are the primary providers of these loans, offering borrowers the ability to access a lump sum amount or a revolving line of credit secured against their residence and property. Regulatory restrictions on high-interest debt and outstanding mortgages may impact the market's growth, but the demand for loans is expected to remain strong as homeowners continue to seek ways to access the value of their homes.

How is this Home Equity Lending Industry segmented and which is the largest segment?

The home equity lending industry research report provides comprehensive data (region-wise segment analysis), with forecasts and estimates in 'USD billion' for the period 2025-2029, as well as historical data from 2019-2023 for the following segments.

Source

  Mortgage and credit union
  Commercial banks
  Others


Distribution Channel

  Offline
  Online


Geography

  North America

    Canada
    US


  Europe

    Germany
    UK
    France


  APAC

    China
    Japan
    South Korea


  South America



  Middle East and Africa

By Source Insights

The mortgage and credit union segment is estimated to witness significant growth during the forecast period.

Home equity lending is a financing solution for homeowners looking to access the value of their property. Mortgage and credit unions serve as trusted providers in this market, offering various financial services including loans and lines of credit. These institutions not only offer consumer loans but also manage deposits, handle checking and savings accounts, disburse credit and debit cards, and grant house loans. Credit unions, in particular, provide personalized services with live representatives, ensuring a human touch in understanding complex financial matters.

Homeowners can secure competitive rates on loans through credit unions, making them a preferred choice over other lenders. With a strong focus on consumer protection and affordability, mortgage and credit unions are an excellent option for homeowners seeking to tap into their for renovation projects or other financial needs.

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The mortgage and credit union segment was valued at USD 82.39 billion in 2019 and showed a gradual increase during the forecast period.

Regional Analysis

North America is estimated to contribute 47% to the growth of the global market during the forecast period.

Technavio's analysts have elaborately explained the regional trends and drivers that shape the market during the forecast period.

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The market in North America experienced notable growth in 2024, driven by the increase in home values and fewer regulations. Homeowners in Canada have been utilizing their properties as collateral for loans, with residential mortgages accounting for 74% of household debt and lines of credit for 16%. The balance of Lines of Credit (HELOC) rose by 1% to USD 128 billion in February 2022.

The statistic shows the average inflation rate in Canada from 1987 to 2023, with projections up until 2029. The inflation rate is calculated using the price increase of a defined product basket. This product basket contains products and services, on which the average consumer spends money throughout the year. They include expenses for groceries, clothes, rent, power, telecommunications, recreational activities and raw materials (e.g. gas, oil), as well as federal fees and taxes. In 2022, the average inflation rate in Canada was approximately 6.8 percent compared to the previous year. For comparison, inflation in India amounted to 5.56 percent that same year.

Inflation in Canada

In general, the inflation rate in Canada follows a global trend of decreasing inflation rates since 2011, with the lowest slump expected to occur during 2015, but forecasts show an increase over the following few years. Additionally, Canada's inflation rate is in quite good shape compared to the rest of the world. While oil and gas prices have dropped in Canada much like they have around the world, food and housing prices in Canada have been increasing. This has helped to offset some of the impact of dropping oil and gas prices and the effect this has had on Canada´s inflation rate.

The annual consumer price index of food and non-alcoholic beverages in Canada has been steadily increasing over the last decade. The same is true for housing and other price indexes for the country. In general there is some confidence that the inflation rate will not stay this low for long, it is expected to return to a comfortable 2 percent by 2017 if estimates are correct.

A tabular presentation of interest rate forecasts for Canadian 3-month Treasury Bills and 10-year Government Bonds in 2012 and 2013 by 6 private sector institutions.

A tabular presentation of interest rate forecasts for Canadian 3-month Treasury Bills and 10-year Government Bonds in 2013 by 6 private sector institutions as at July 22, 2013.

Canada 10Y Bond Yield was 3.16 percent on Wednesday March 26, according to over-the-counter interbank yield quotes for this government bond maturity. Canada 10-Year Government Bond Yield - values, historical data, forecasts and news - updated on March of 2025.

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Personal Loans Market Size 2025-2029

The personal loans market size is forecast to increase by USD 803.4 billion, at a CAGR of 15.2% between 2024 and 2029.

The market is witnessing significant growth, driven by the adoption of advanced technologies in loan processing and the rise in the use of cloud-based personal loan servicing software offerings. These technological advancements enable faster loan processing, improved customer experience, and enhanced security. However, the market faces challenges related to regulatory compliance, with increasing regulations and scrutiny from regulatory bodies. Lenders must ensure they adhere to these regulations to maintain trust and transparency with their customers. Digitalization, including cloud computing, chatbots, big data analytics, and artificial intelligence, has transformed the market. Additionally, the market is witnessing an increase in competition, with new players entering the market and existing players offering innovative products to attract customers. Overall, the market is expected to continue its growth trajectory, driven by technological advancements and the need for flexible financing solutions.

What will be the Size of the Personal Loans Market During the Forecast Period?

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The market encompasses short-term financing solutions designed for individuals to meet their various financial needs. Employment status and credit history significantly influence borrowing limits and interest rates in this sector. Traditional balance sheet lending institutions, such as credit unions, have long dominated the market, but online loan providers have gained traction due to quick lending processes and digitalized business operations. Interest rates and borrowing limits continue to be key market drivers, with competitive insights from credit unions and online providers shaping the landscape. Employment instability and economic uncertainty have increased demand for personal loans, particularly among those with less-than-ideal credit histories.
Digitalization, including cloud computing, chatbots, big data analytics, and artificial intelligence, have transformed the market. These technologies streamline loan assessments, enabling faster approval processes and more personalized customer experiences. However, the rise of digital credit platforms also presents challenges, such as increased competition, potential bad debts, and penalties for late payments. Collateral is less common in personal loans compared to other types of loans, but awareness of digitalization and automation continues to grow. Credit cards serve as a competitive alternative for some consumers, but personal loans offer more flexibility and potentially lower interest rates for larger borrowing needs.

How is this Personal Loans Industry segmented and which is the largest segment?

The personal loans industry research report provides comprehensive data (region-wise segment analysis), with forecasts and estimates in 'USD billion' for the period 2025-2029, as well as historical data from 2019-2023 for the following segments.

Application

  Short term loans
  Medium term loans
  Long term loans


Type

  P2P marketplace lending
  Balance sheet lending


Channel

  Banks
  Credit union
  Online lenders


Geography

  North America

    Canada
    US


  Europe

    Germany
    UK
    France
    Italy


  APAC

    China
    India
    Japan


  South America

    Brazil


  Middle East and Africa

By Application Insights

The short term loans segment is estimated to witness significant growth during the forecast period.

Personal loans have gained popularity as a flexible financing solution for individuals, particularly In the form of short-term loans. These loans cater to urgent needs, such as medical emergencies or car repairs, offering quick access to funds with shorter repayment periods, typically within a year. Unlike home or gold loans, personal loans do not require collateral, making them an accessible option for borrowers. Employment status, credit history, and borrowing limits are key factors in determining eligibility and loan amounts. The market is undergoing digital transformation, with cloud computing, chatbots, big data analytics, and artificial intelligence streamlining business operations. Fintech companies and online loan providers are disrupting traditional financial institutions, such as banks and credit unions, by offering instantaneous loan approvals and digital credit platforms.

However, challenges persist, including regulatory compliance, competition, and managing bad debts and penalties. In the competitive environment, Zopa, Startups, and other fintech companies are leveraging automation, AI technology, and credit history assessments to provide personalized loan solutions. Economic uncertainty and the increasing use of the Internet of Things have heightened aware

The Department of Finance regularly surveys about 15 private sector forecasters for their views on the main economic variables, such as gross domestic product, the unemployment rate and interest rates. The average of private sector forecasts forms the basis for the economic assumptions used for fiscal planning purposes in the budget and the fall update.