The annual price of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil is expected to reach an average of 63.58 U.S. dollars per barrel in 2025, according to an August 2025 forecast. This would be a decrease of roughly 13 U.S. dollar compared to the previous year. In the first eight months of 2025, weekly crude oil prices largely stayed below 70 U.S. dollars per barrel amid trade tariffs and an expected economic downturn. What are benchmark crudes? WTI is often used as a price reference point called a benchmark (or ”marker”) crude. This category includes Brent crude from the North Sea, Dubai Crude, as well as blends in the OPEC reference basket. WTI, Brent, and the OPEC basket have tended to trade closely, but since 2011, Brent has been selling at a higher annual spot price than WTI, largely due to increased oil production in the United States. What causes price volatility? Oil prices are historically volatile. While mostly shaped by demand and supply like all consumer goods, they may also be affected by production limits, a change in U.S. dollar value, and to an extent by market speculation. In 2022, the annual average price for WTI was close to the peak of nearly 100 U.S. dollars recorded in 2008. In the latter year, multiple factors, such as strikes in Nigeria, an oil sale stop in Venezuela, and the continuous increase in oil demand from China were partly responsible for the price surge. Higher oil prices allowed the pursuit of extraction methods previously deemed too expensive and risky, such as shale gas and tight oil production in the U.S. The widespread practice of fracturing source rocks for oil and gas extraction led to the oil glut in 2016 and made the U.S. the largest oil producer in the world.

Crude Oil fell to 59.17 USD/Bbl on December 2, 2025, down 0.25% from the previous day. Over the past month, Crude Oil's price has fallen 3.08%, and is down 15.40% compared to the same time last year, according to trading on a contract for difference (CFD) that tracks the benchmark market for this commodity. Crude Oil - values, historical data, forecasts and news - updated on December of 2025.

Brent crude oil is projected to have an average annual spot price of 67.22 U.S. dollars per barrel in 2025, according to a forecast from May 2025. This would mean a decrease of more than 13 U.S. dollars compared to the previous year and also reflect a reduced forecast WTI crude oil price. Lower economic activity, an increase in OPEC+ production output, and uncertainty over trade tariffs all impacted price forecasting. All about Brent Also known as Brent Blend, London Brent, and Brent petroleum, Brent Crude is a crude oil benchmark named after the exploration site in the North Sea's Brent oilfield. It is a sweet light crude oil but slightly heavier than West Texas Intermediate. In this context, sweet refers to a low sulfur content and light refers to a relatively low density when compared to other crude oil benchmarks. Price development in the 2020s Oil prices are volatile, impacted by consumer demand and discoveries of new oilfields, new extraction methods such as fracking, and production caps routinely placed by OPEC on its member states. The price for Brent crude oil stood at an average of just 42 U.S. dollars in 2020, when the coronavirus pandemic resulted in a sudden demand drop. Two years later, sanctions on Russian energy imports had pushed up prices to a new decade-high, above 100 U.S. dollars per barrel.

Heating Oil rose to 2.35 USD/Gal on December 2, 2025, up 0.21% from the previous day. Over the past month, Heating Oil's price has fallen 2.25%, but it is still 6.31% higher than a year ago, according to trading on a contract for difference (CFD) that tracks the benchmark market for this commodity. Heating oil - values, historical data, forecasts and news - updated on December of 2025.

Explore the dynamic factors influencing Brent crude oil prices, including geopolitical tensions, supply-demand shifts, economic trends, and technological advancements. This comprehensive analysis highlights how these elements shape future price forecasts.

On October 27, 2025, the Brent crude oil price stood at 65.14 U.S. dollars per barrel, compared to 61.31 U.S. dollars for WTI oil and 67.54 U.S. dollars for the OPEC basket. Oil prices rose slightly that week.Europe's Brent crude oil, the U.S. WTI crude oil, and OPEC's basket are three of the most important benchmarks used by traders as reference for global oil and gasoline prices. Lowest ever oil prices during coronavirus pandemic In 2020, the coronavirus pandemic resulted in crude oil prices hitting a major slump as oil demand drastically declined following lockdowns and travel restrictions. Initial outlooks and uncertainty surrounding the course of the pandemic brought about a disagreement between two of the largest oil producers, Russia and Saudi Arabia, in early March. Bilateral talks between global oil producers ended in agreement on April 13th, with promises to cut petroleum output and hopes rising that these might help stabilize the oil price in the coming weeks. However, with storage facilities and oil tankers quickly filling up, fears grew over where to store excess oil, leading to benchmark prices seeing record negative prices between April 20 and April 22, 2020. How crude oil prices are determined As with most commodities, crude oil prices are impacted by supply and demand, as well as inventories and market sentiment. However, as oil is most often traded in future contracts (where a contract is agreed upon while product delivery will follow in the next two to three months), market speculation is one of the principal determinants for oil prices. Traders make conclusions on how production output and consumer demand will likely develop over the coming months, leaving room for uncertainty. Spot prices differ from futures in so far as they reflect the current market price of a commodity.

The WTI oil forecast is a projection of the future price movement of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil. Traders, investors, and analysts closely monitor these forecasts to make informed decisions regarding oil-related investments and trading strategies. Factors such as supply and demand dynamics, geopolitical events, economic indicators, and weather conditions influence the WTI oil forecast. Different analysis methods including technical analysis, fundamental analysis, and sentiment analysis are used

Brent fell to 63.05 USD/Bbl on December 2, 2025, down 0.19% from the previous day. Over the past month, Brent's price has fallen 2.84%, and is down 14.36% compared to the same time last year, according to trading on a contract for difference (CFD) that tracks the benchmark market for this commodity. Brent crude oil - values, historical data, forecasts and news - updated on December of 2025.

As of the third quarter of 2025, oil prices in the United Kingdom stood at 68.1 dollars per barrel, with prices expected to fall to 65 dollars a barrel in the fourth quarter of the year.

Context

The crude oil price movements are subject to diverse influencing factors. This dataset was retrieved from the U.S. Energy Information Administration: Europe Brent Spot Price FOB (Dollars per Barrel)

Content

The aim of this dataset and work is to predict future Crude Oil Prices based on the historical data available in the dataset. The data contains daily Brent oil prices from 17th of May 1987 until the 13th of November 2022.

Acknowledgements

Dataset is available on U.S. Energy Information Administration: Europe Brent Spot Price FOB (Dollars per Barrel) which is updated on weekly bases.

Inspiration

The vast competition in the Data Science field and the availability of the new Prophet method made it easier to predict future prices, that is what you may find when predicting the oil prices with this dataset.

View weekly updates and historical trends for New England Residential Heating Oil Price. from United States. Source: Energy Information Administration. Tr…

In addition to their theoretical analysis of the joint determination of oil futures prices and oil spot prices, Alquist and Kilian (Journal of Applied Econometrics, 2010, 25(4), 539-573) compare the out-of-sample accuracy of the random walk forecast with that of forecasts based on oil futures prices and other predictors. The results of my replication exercise are very similar to the original forecast accuracy results, but the relative accuracy of the random walk forecast and the futures-based forecast changes when the sample is extended to August 2016, consistent with the results of several other recent studies by Kilian and co-authors.

Get the latest insights on price movement and trend analysis of Fuel Oil in different regions across the world (Asia, Europe, North America, Latin America, and the Middle East Africa).

The forecast for oil prices is subject to various factors and uncertainties, making it challenging to provide a precise and accurate prediction. Analysts and organizations continually monitor market trends and employ various methodologies to estimate future oil prices. Global supply and demand dynamics, financial markets, technological advancements, and government policies all impact oil prices. Creating reliable forecasts involves fundamental analysis, statistical models, expert opinions, and market insigh

Crude oil stock price forecast is a prediction of the future movement and value of stock prices in the crude oil industry. This article explains the methods used in forecasting, such as time series analysis, regression analysis, and machine learning, and emphasizes the importance of considering multiple forecast models and consulting with financial experts for more accurate predictions.

The IEA is the energy institute expecting the highest oil surplus for 2025. As demand outlooks remain modest, robust production output throughout 2024 is expected to result in some form of oil surplus, which would also impact oil prices. Woodmac was the only energy institute surveyed that did not see a surplus for the year. Production growth amid lower demand expectations The expected surplus in 2025 is largely attributed to non-OPEC production growth from major producers such as the United States and newcomers like Guyana. Overall, worldwide liquid fuels production could see a steep increase in the first half of 2025, if producers like OPEC stick to their output plans. This would come in spite of modest consumption expectations. Again, the IEA is the institute predicting the lowest growth in global oil demand when compared to other industry bodies such as the EIA and OPEC. Forecasting centers diverge in opinion on oil future Not only near-term, also long-term oil demand projections have become increasingly divergent among major energy institutions. OPEC's 2024 outlook expects global oil demand to surpass *** million barrels per day by 2030, while the IEA's stated policies scenario anticipates demand reaching only ***** million barrels per day in the same year. Diesel and gasoil currently account for the largest share of oil product demand at ***** percent, though this is expected to decrease slightly by 2050. Jet fuel and kerosene are projected to see the greatest increase in demand shares over the coming decades.

MetaData

Crude Oil Stock Price Data (2000-2024)

Dataset Description

This dataset contains historical stock price data for Crude Oil from 2000 to 2024. This data is extracted by using Python's yfinance library and it provides detailed insights into Crude Oil's stock performance over the years. It includes daily values for the stock's opening and closing prices, adjusted close price, high and low prices, and trading volume. This dataset is ideal for time series analysis, stock trend analysis, and financial machine learning projects such as price prediction models and volatility analysis.

The dataset is extracted from Yahoo Finance

Column Descriptions

Date: The trading date for each entry, in the format.

Adj_Close: Adjusted closing price of Crude Oil stock for each trading day, reflecting stock splits, dividends, and other adjustments.

Close: The raw closing price of Crude Oil stock at the end of each trading day.

High: The highest price reached by Crude Oil stock during the trading day.

Low: The lowest price reached by Crude Oil stock during the trading day.

Open: The price of Crude Oil stock at the start of the trading day.

Volume: The total number of shares traded during the trading day.

Abstract The recent movement of oil prices has brought many forecasts about what is coming in the near future. This is natural since the plunge in prices has been dramatic after 2014 and oil is an essential source of energy worldwide. This paper examines the probabilities of spot price scenarios. We model prices through stochastic processes focusing on the Schwartz-Smith model. The calibration is based on the term structure of future prices. Since the conditional distribution is log-normal we define the probability of a certain value of the spot price in a given time horizon. We found that the recovery of crude oil prices will be slow in the next four years. Moreover, the scenario of prices under US$ 20/barrel has the same probability as being greater than US$ 50/barrel. The methodology has many applications, mainly for government planning and for oil companies in their capital budget decisions.

Deterministic and stochastic are two methods for modeling of crude oil and bottled water market. Forecasting the price of the market directly affected energy producer and water user.There are two software, Tableau and Python, which are utilized to model and visualize both markets for the aim of estimating possible price in the future.The role of those software is to provide an optimal alternative with different methods (deterministic versus stochastic). The base of predicted price in Tableau is deterministic—global optimization and time series. In contrast, Monte Carlo simulation as a stochastic method is modeled by Python software. The purpose of the project is, first, to predict the price of crude oil and bottled water with stochastic (Monte Carlo simulation) and deterministic (Tableau software),second, to compare the prices in a case study of Crude Oil Prices: West Texas Intermediate (WTI) and the U.S. bottled water. 1. Introduction Predicting stock and stock price index is challenging due to uncertainties involved. We can analyze with a different aspect; the investors perform before investing in a stock or the evaluation of stocks by means of studying statistics generated by market activity such as past prices and volumes. The data analysis attempt to identify stock patterns and trends that may predict the estimation price in the future. Initially, the classical regression (deterministic) methods were used to predict stock trends; furthermore, the uncertainty (stochastic) methods were used to forecast as same as deterministic. According to Deterministic versus stochastic volatility: implications for option pricing models (1997), Paul Brockman & Mustafa Chowdhury researched that the stock return volatility is deterministic or stochastic. They reported that “Results reported herein add support to the growing literature on preference-based stochastic volatility models and generally reject the notion of deterministic volatility” (Pag.499). For this argument, we need to research for modeling forecasting historical data with two software (Tableau and Python). In order to forecast analyze Tableau feature, the software automatically chooses the best of up to eight models which generates the highest quality forecast. According to the manual of Tableau , Tableau assesses forecast quality optimize the smoothing of each model. The optimization model is global. The main part of the model is a taxonomy of exponential smoothing that analyzes the best eight models with enough data. The real- world data generating process is a part of the forecast feature and to support deterministic method. Therefore, Tableau forecast feature is illustrated the best possible price in the future by deterministic (time – series and prices). Monte Carlo simulation (MCs) is modeled by Python, which is predicted the floating stock market index . Forecasting the stock market by Monte Carlo demonstrates in mathematics to solve various problems by generating suitable random numbers and observing that fraction of the numbers that obeys some property or properties. The method utilizes to obtain numerical solutions to problems too complicated to solve analytically. It randomly generates thousands of series representing potential outcomes for possible returns. Therefore, the variable price is the base of a random number between possible spot price between 2002-2016 that present a stochastic method.

In Q1 2025, U.S. sunflower oil prices reflected significant volatility, shaped by evolving supply conditions, shifting demand patterns, and broader macroeconomic pressures. January began with a strong upward trajectory as constrained global sunflower seed production—driven by geopolitical tensions and adverse weather in Ukraine and Russia—led to tighter supply. The USDA projected a 10% drop in global output for the 2024/25 season, while rising soybean oil futures further supported sunflower oil’s price surge.