On October 27, 2025, the Brent crude oil price stood at 65.14 U.S. dollars per barrel, compared to 61.31 U.S. dollars for WTI oil and 67.54 U.S. dollars for the OPEC basket. Oil prices rose slightly that week.Europe's Brent crude oil, the U.S. WTI crude oil, and OPEC's basket are three of the most important benchmarks used by traders as reference for global oil and gasoline prices. Lowest ever oil prices during coronavirus pandemic In 2020, the coronavirus pandemic resulted in crude oil prices hitting a major slump as oil demand drastically declined following lockdowns and travel restrictions. Initial outlooks and uncertainty surrounding the course of the pandemic brought about a disagreement between two of the largest oil producers, Russia and Saudi Arabia, in early March. Bilateral talks between global oil producers ended in agreement on April 13th, with promises to cut petroleum output and hopes rising that these might help stabilize the oil price in the coming weeks. However, with storage facilities and oil tankers quickly filling up, fears grew over where to store excess oil, leading to benchmark prices seeing record negative prices between April 20 and April 22, 2020. How crude oil prices are determined As with most commodities, crude oil prices are impacted by supply and demand, as well as inventories and market sentiment. However, as oil is most often traded in future contracts (where a contract is agreed upon while product delivery will follow in the next two to three months), market speculation is one of the principal determinants for oil prices. Traders make conclusions on how production output and consumer demand will likely develop over the coming months, leaving room for uncertainty. Spot prices differ from futures in so far as they reflect the current market price of a commodity.

As of August 2025, the average annual price of Brent crude oil stood at 71.3 U.S. dollars per barrel. This is over nine U.S. dollars lower than the 2024 average. Brent is the world's leading price benchmark for Atlantic basin crude oils. Crude oil is one of the most closely observed commodity prices as it influences costs across all stages of the production process and consequently alters the price of consumer goods as well. What determines crude oil benchmarks? In the past decade, crude oil prices have been especially volatile. Their inherent inelasticity regarding short-term changes in demand and supply means that oil prices are erratic by nature. However, since the 2009 financial crisis, many commercial developments have greatly contributed to price volatility, such as economic growth by BRIC countries like China and India, and the advent of hydraulic fracturing and horizontal drilling in the U.S. The outbreak of the coronavirus pandemic and the Russia-Ukraine war are examples of geopolitical events dictating prices. Light crude oils - Brent and WTI Brent Crude is considered a classification of sweet light crude oil and acts as a benchmark price for oil around the world. It is considered a sweet light crude oil due to its low sulfur content and low density and may be easily refined into gasoline. This oil originates in the North Sea and comprises several different oil blends, including Brent Blend and Ekofisk crude. Often, this crude oil is refined in Northwest Europe. Another sweet light oil often referenced alongside UK Brent is West Texas Intermediate (WTI). WTI oil prices amounted to 76.55 U.S. dollars per barrel in 2024.

Crude Oil fell to 59.17 USD/Bbl on December 2, 2025, down 0.25% from the previous day. Over the past month, Crude Oil's price has fallen 3.08%, and is down 15.40% compared to the same time last year, according to trading on a contract for difference (CFD) that tracks the benchmark market for this commodity. Crude Oil - values, historical data, forecasts and news - updated on December of 2025.

Learn about the factors that influence oil and gas prices and how they have evolved over the years, including supply disruptions, geopolitical tensions, economic growth, and the impact on various sectors.

In August 2025, the average price of one barrel of Brent crude oil was 67.87 U.S. dollars. This was a decrease from the previous month and 12 U.S. dollars below July 2024 prices. Brent terminology and most common uses Brent is the world's leading price benchmark for Atlantic basin crude oils. It is used to price two thirds of the internationally traded crude oil supplies and is also the most significant crude oil benchmark for Europe. Brent crude originates in the North Sea and includes oils from Brent and Forties Oil Field in the United Kingdom, and from the Oseborg and Ekofisk oil fields, both oil reserves in Norway. Other names for Brent are Brent Blend, London Brent and Brent petroleum. The name Brent comes from the Brent oil field, located north-east of the Shetland Islands, and thus part of the United Kingdom. Because the Brent oil field already passed its production peak, today the benchmark Brent includes oil from the other three major oil fields. Brent, next to West Texas Intermediate (WTI), is one of the lightest crude oils. With a low content of sulfur, it is ranged among the so-called sweet crude oils. Most of the Brent crude oil is refined into gasoline and middle distillates in Northwest Europe. Benchmark oil prices Other crucial benchmarks for crude oil prices are the already mentioned U.S.- WTI and Dubai Crude (Fateh). They are indispensable for referencing the many types and grades of oil on the global market. In the past 20 years, the annual price for one barrel of Brent crude oil saw a net increase. For example, the average price per barrel stood at 80.53 U.S. dollars in 2024.

Gasoline fell to 1.86 USD/Gal on December 2, 2025, down 0.53% from the previous day. Over the past month, Gasoline's price has fallen 2.79%, and is down 4.95% compared to the same time last year, according to trading on a contract for difference (CFD) that tracks the benchmark market for this commodity. Gasoline - values, historical data, forecasts and news - updated on December of 2025.

The 2025 preliminary average annual price of West Texas Intermediate crude oil reached 67.83 U.S. dollars per barrel as of August. This would be nine U.S. dollars below the 2024 average and the lowest annual average since 2021. WTI and other benchmarks WTI is a grade of crude oil also known as “Texas light sweet.” It is measured to have an API gravity of around 39.6 and specific gravity of about 0.83, which is considered “light” relative to other crude oils. This oil also contains roughly 0.24 percent sulfur, and is therefore named “sweet.” Crude oils are some of the most closely observed commodity prices in the world. WTI is the underlying commodity of the Chicago Mercantile Exchange’s oil futures contracts. The price of other crude oils, such as UK Brent crude oil, the OPEC crude oil basket, and Dubai Fateh oil, can be compared to that of WTI crude oil. Since 1976, the price of WTI crude oil has increased notably, rising from just 12.23 U.S. dollars per barrel in 1976 to a peak of 99.06 dollars per barrel in 2008. Geopolitical conflicts and their impact on oil prices The price of oil is controlled in part by limiting oil production. Prior to 1971, the Texas Railroad Commission controlled the price of oil by setting limits on production of U.S. oil. In 1971, the Texas Railroad Commission ceased limiting production, but OPEC, the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries with member states Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, and Venezuela among others, continued to do so. In 1972, due to geopolitical conflict, OPEC set an oil embargo and cut oil production, causing prices to quadruple by 1974. Oil prices rose again in 1979 and 1980 due to the Iranian revolution, and doubled between 1978 and 1981 as the Iran-Iraq War prevented oil production. A number of geopolitical conflicts and periods of increased production and consumption have influenced the price of oil since then.

United Kingdom BOE Forecast: Brent Crude Oil Price data was reported at 71.000 USD/Barrel in 2021. This records a decrease from the previous number of 74.000 USD/Barrel for 2020. United Kingdom BOE Forecast: Brent Crude Oil Price data is updated yearly, averaging 72.500 USD/Barrel from Dec 2014 (Median) to 2021, with 8 observations. The data reached an all-time high of 81.000 USD/Barrel in 2018 and a record low of 43.000 USD/Barrel in 2015. United Kingdom BOE Forecast: Brent Crude Oil Price data remains active status in CEIC and is reported by Bank of England. The data is categorized under Global Database’s United Kingdom – Table UK.P009: Crude Oil and Gas Prices: Forecast.

Natural gas rose to 4.94 USD/MMBtu on December 3, 2025, up 2.04% from the previous day. Over the past month, Natural gas's price has risen 13.71%, and is up 62.29% compared to the same time last year, according to trading on a contract for difference (CFD) that tracks the benchmark market for this commodity. Natural gas - values, historical data, forecasts and news - updated on December of 2025.

The 2025 annual OPEC basket price stood at ***** U.S. dollars per barrel as of August. This would be lower than the 2024 average, which amounted to ***** U.S. dollars. The abbreviation OPEC stands for Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and includes Algeria, Angola, Congo, Equatorial Guinea, Gabon, Iraq, Iran, Kuwait, Libya, Nigeria, Saudi Arabia, Venezuela, and the United Arab Emirates. The aim of the OPEC is to coordinate the oil policies of its member states. It was founded in 1960 in Baghdad, Iraq. The OPEC Reference Basket The OPEC crude oil price is defined by the price of the so-called OPEC (Reference) basket. This basket is an average of prices of the various petroleum blends that are produced by the OPEC members. Some of these oil blends are, for example: Saharan Blend from Algeria, Basra Light from Iraq, Arab Light from Saudi Arabia, BCF 17 from Venezuela, et cetera. By increasing and decreasing its oil production, OPEC tries to keep the price between a given maxima and minima. Benchmark crude oil The OPEC basket is one of the most important benchmarks for crude oil prices worldwide. Other significant benchmarks are UK Brent, West Texas Intermediate (WTI), and Dubai Crude (Fateh). Because there are many types and grades of oil, such benchmarks are indispensable for referencing them on the global oil market. The 2025 fall in prices was the result of weakened demand outlooks exacerbated by extensive U.S. trade tariffs.

According to a 2025 survey, oil producers operating in the Permian region needed WTI oil prices to amount to a minimum of ** U.S. dollars per barrel in order to profitably drill a new well. This compared to a minimum breakeven price of ** U.S. dollars per barrel for existing wells. The monthly average WTI oil price ranged between ** and ** U.S. dollars per barrel around the time of the survey. Most productive oil basins Operators in shale basins have the lowest average breakeven prices for new wells. However, when it comes to existing wells, operators in the Permian (Delaware) basin can afford even lower oil prices. The Permian basin, located in Texas and New Mexico, accounts for the greatest U.S. oil production output of any region. In 2024, production in the Permian reached nearly *********** barrels per day - more than **** times the amount extracted from the neighboring Eagle Ford rock formation. Texas is leading oil producing state With both regions located in Texas, it is not surprising that this is also the leading crude oil producing U.S. state. Nearly two billion barrels worth of crude oil were extracted in Texas per year, far more than any other state. Texas is home to a total of five major oil and gas formations.

Oil prices trend

The data contains oil prices from 1998 from 8 countries.

Content

The data is self explanatory. The price is described in USD for the crude oil data and in local currencies for the fuel products.

Acknowledgements

The data is available from IEA website

Brent fell to 63.05 USD/Bbl on December 2, 2025, down 0.19% from the previous day. Over the past month, Brent's price has fallen 2.84%, and is down 14.36% compared to the same time last year, according to trading on a contract for difference (CFD) that tracks the benchmark market for this commodity. Brent crude oil - values, historical data, forecasts and news - updated on December of 2025.

Context

The crude oil price movements are subject to diverse influencing factors. This dataset was retrieved from the U.S. Energy Information Administration: Europe Brent Spot Price FOB (Dollars per Barrel)

Content

The aim of this dataset and work is to predict future Crude Oil Prices based on the historical data available in the dataset. The data contains daily Brent oil prices from 17th of May 1987 until the 13th of November 2022.

Acknowledgements

Dataset is available on U.S. Energy Information Administration: Europe Brent Spot Price FOB (Dollars per Barrel) which is updated on weekly bases.

Inspiration

The vast competition in the Data Science field and the availability of the new Prophet method made it easier to predict future prices, that is what you may find when predicting the oil prices with this dataset.

You are members of the analytic department in one of the Alberta Oil Sands extraction companies. You are given a current project to collect and clean the data and choose, fit and validate the model for further continuous prediction of demand for the company's products. This will allow the company to assess profitability and to set the appropriate volumes of production.

In short, you need to use the historical data of https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/rwtcW.htm in its weekly version, and to predict it for the available weeks of 2021, to evaluate the quality of your prediction and to compose a report for your management. Before working with real data, you first check the intended model on simulated data.

Below we suggest the specific steps of analysis for those who like the detailed instructions. However, these steps may be changed by those who prefer free creativity.

The moral that we are trying to learn in this assignment is that it is easy to forecast series generated by a certain family of models. However, it is hard to forecast the real cases.

We will study the necessary material for the whole semester. However, steps in italic, you can start immediately. I suggest you to start early, because the volume is high.

Part 1. Artificial data

1.1. Simulation.

1.1.1. For ARIMA(p, d, q), set p = 2
d = 1
q = 2
phi_1 = -.2
phi_2 = .15
theta_1 = .3
theta_2 = -.1
sd = 0.03
and generate a series of sample size n = 1000, using this model. 1.1.2. Add a linear trend y(t) = b0 + b1*t, using the coefficients intercept b0 = -1 and slope b1= 0.0015. 1.1.3. Apply an exponential function.

1.2. Exploratory analysis in the order, inverse to the simulation steps.

1.2.1. Divide the generated set into a training set head and a test set tail. 1.2.2. Logarithm the training set series. 1.2.3. Detect a linear trend by regression. Compare the estimated trend parameters to true ones. 1.2.4. Detrend the series. 1.2.5. In the same axes, plot the original ARIMA simulation and the current (trended, exponentiated, logarithmed and finally detrended) series. They should have the same shape, but differ by a bit of shift and stretch. 1.2.6. ARIMA fit. 1.2.6.1. By 3 nested loops over p, d and q between 0 and 3, print all values of AIC in 3 4-by-4-tables. Choose the triple, minimizing AIC. Compare it to the true (p, d, q) triple and comment. 1.2.6.2. Fit the model by auto.arima command. Comment on its choice of p, d and q, comparing to true values and those chosen by triple loop. 1.2.6.3. Leave out those attempts of order estimations and choose the true (p, d, q) triple. Fit ARIMA(2, 1, 2), using the function forecast::Arima, to the training data. 1.2.7. Compare the estimated ARIMA parameters to true ones. Comment on goodness of fit.

1.3. Forecasting the simulated series.

1.3.1. Forecast the testing part of the ARIMA, using forecast::forecast function. 1.3.2. Add the estimated trend. 1.3.3. Exponentiate that trended forecast.

1.4. Evaluation of the results

1.4.1. Plot the forecast values, prediction interval, and the real testing set in the same axes. 1.4.2. Plot acf of the testing set and its prediction, and ccf between them. 1.4.3. Plot the residuals and their acf. 1.4.4. Estimate the forecast error.

Part 2. Real data.

2.1. Data sourcing and visualization.

2.1.1. Read the dataset https://www.kaggle.com/statistics101guy/wti-spot-price-fob-dollars-per-barrel 2.1.2. Plot the series and its acf.

2.2. Exploratory analysis

2.2.1. Divide the series into a training set (up to 2020 inclusively) and testing set (2021). 2.2.2. Logarithm the series. 2.2.3. Estimate the linear trend by the least squares procedure. 2.2.4. Detrend the series. 2.2.5. By “auto.arima” command of “forecast” library, fit ARIMA(p, d, q) to the training data.

2.3. Forecasting in the order, inverse to the exploratory analysis steps

2.3.1. Using the “forecast” function of the “forecast” library, forecast your ARIMA model for the period of testing set. 2.3.2. Extrapolate your linear trend to this period and add it to your ARIMA forecast. 2.3.3. Exponentiate the result.

2.4. Evaluation of the forecast quality

2.4.1. Plot the forecast values, prediction interval, and the real testing set in the same axes. 2.4.2. Plot acf of the testing set and its prediction, and ccf between them. 2.4.3. Plot the residuals and their acf. 2.4.4. Estimate the forecast error. 2.4.5. Comment on the results

Part 3. Reporting

3.1. Compose a business report of about 10 pages length, following the approximate structure:

3.1.1. Title page, listing the group members, project title, school, course, submission date. 3.1.2. Executive summary, containing your view of the problem setting, brief description of the intended analysis and all that usually pertains to this section 3.1.3. Ana...

Europe Brent Spot Price FOB (Dollars per Barrel)

This dataset contains daily historical prices for Europe Brent Spot Price FOB (Free On Board) measured in dollars per barrel. The data spans from May 20, 1987 to September 29, 2025, providing a comprehensive time series of one of the world's most important crude oil benchmarks.

Brent crude is a major trading classification of sweet light crude oil that serves as a major benchmark price for purchases of oil worldwide. This dataset is valuable for energy market analysis, economic research, commodity trading strategies, and understanding historical oil price trends.

The data was sourced from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), which collects, analyzes, and disseminates independent and impartial energy information.

License: CC0 1.0 Universal (Public Domain) Source: https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/RBRTED.htm

Historical prices of Brent Oil, Crude Oil WTI, Natural Gas, Heating Oil from 2000-2022.

cover image credit: https://www.pexels.com/photo/blaze-blue-blur-bright-266896/

Dataset

This dataset was created by Spencer Tollefson

Contents

Learn about natural gas WTI, its role as a benchmark for natural gas and crude oil, and how trading futures contracts can help manage price risk and speculate on price movements.

Learn about the unit of measurement for crude oil price, barrels (bbl), and how it is typically quoted in dollars per barrel. Discover why this unit became standard, its use in the oil and gas industry, and factors influencing crude oil prices.