Retail Sales Nowcast: sa: YoY: Contribution:(GDP) Gross Domestic ProductNowcast: Now-Casting Surprise Index: 2 Months: United States data was reported at 0.240 % in 12 May 2025. This stayed constant from the previous number of 0.240 % for 05 May 2025. Retail Sales Nowcast: sa: YoY: Contribution:(GDP) Gross Domestic ProductNowcast: Now-Casting Surprise Index: 2 Months: United States data is updated weekly, averaging 0.000 % from Feb 2020 (Median) to 12 May 2025, with 274 observations. The data reached an all-time high of 17.116 % in 15 Feb 2021 and a record low of 0.000 % in 07 Apr 2025. Retail Sales Nowcast: sa: YoY: Contribution:(GDP) Gross Domestic ProductNowcast: Now-Casting Surprise Index: 2 Months: United States data remains active status in CEIC and is reported by CEIC Data. The data is categorized under Global Database’s United States – Table US.CEIC.NC: CEIC Nowcast: Retail Sales.

Graph and download economic data for GDPNow (GDPNOW) from Q3 2011 to Q3 2025 about nowcast, projection, headline figure, GDP, rate, and USA.

Graph and download economic data for St. Louis Fed Economic News Index: Real GDP Nowcast (STLENI) from Q2 2013 to Q3 2025 about nowcast, projection, real, GDP, rate, indexes, and USA.

United States Unemployment Rate Nowcast: sa: Contribution:(GDP) Gross Domestic ProductNowcast: FRB Atlanta Forecast: Evolution: GDPNow: saar: QoQ data was reported at 0.000 % in 12 May 2025. This stayed constant from the previous number of 0.000 % for 05 May 2025. United States Unemployment Rate Nowcast: sa: Contribution:(GDP) Gross Domestic ProductNowcast: FRB Atlanta Forecast: Evolution: GDPNow: saar: QoQ data is updated weekly, averaging 0.000 % from Jan 2020 (Median) to 12 May 2025, with 279 observations. The data reached an all-time high of 51.517 % in 06 Jul 2020 and a record low of 0.000 % in 12 May 2025. United States Unemployment Rate Nowcast: sa: Contribution:(GDP) Gross Domestic ProductNowcast: FRB Atlanta Forecast: Evolution: GDPNow: saar: QoQ data remains active status in CEIC and is reported by CEIC Data. The data is categorized under Global Database’s United States – Table US.CEIC.NC: CEIC Nowcast: Unemployment Rate.

Canada GDP Nowcast: saar: YoY: Current Quarter data was reported at 1.943 % in 12 May 2025. This records an increase from the previous number of 1.918 % for 05 May 2025. Canada GDP Nowcast: saar: YoY: Current Quarter data is updated weekly, averaging 2.477 % from Jan 2019 (Median) to 12 May 2025, with 332 observations. The data reached an all-time high of 9.495 % in 23 Aug 2021 and a record low of -8.893 % in 24 Aug 2020. Canada GDP Nowcast: saar: YoY: Current Quarter data remains active status in CEIC and is reported by CEIC Data. The data is categorized under Global Database’s Canada – Table CA.CEIC.NC: CEIC Nowcast: Gross Domestic Product (GDP).

Alternative data sets are widely used for macroeconomic nowcasting together with machine learning–based tools. The latter are often applied without a complete picture of their theoretical nowcasting properties. Against this background, this paper proposes a theoretically grounded nowcasting methodology that allows researchers to incorporate alternative Google Search Data (GSD) among the predictors and that combines targeted preselection, Ridge regularization, and Generalized Cross Validation. Breaking with most existing literature, which focuses on asymptotic in-sample theoretical properties, we establish the theoretical out-of-sample properties of our methodology and support them by Monte-Carlo simulations. We apply our methodology to GSD to nowcast GDP growth rate of several countries during various economic periods. Our empirical findings support the idea that GSD tend to increase nowcasting accuracy, even after controlling for official variables, but that the gain differs between periods of recessions and of macroeconomic stability.

The folder contains replication code of the Paper A Multi-Factor GDP Nowcast Model for India. The readme file contains all the instruction, and different subfolders contains code for creating different figures and tables of the paper.

Graph and download economic data for Nowcast for Real Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCENOW) from Q3 2011 to Q3 2025 about nowcast, projection, PCE, consumption expenditures, consumption, personal, real, rate, and USA.

Canada GDP Nowcast: saar: YoY: Contribution: Financial Assets and Liabilities data was reported at 3.725 % in 12 May 2025. This records a decrease from the previous number of 3.865 % for 05 May 2025. Canada GDP Nowcast: saar: YoY: Contribution: Financial Assets and Liabilities data is updated weekly, averaging 4.409 % from Jan 2019 (Median) to 12 May 2025, with 332 observations. The data reached an all-time high of 9.355 % in 28 Jan 2019 and a record low of 1.680 % in 13 Apr 2020. Canada GDP Nowcast: saar: YoY: Contribution: Financial Assets and Liabilities data remains active status in CEIC and is reported by CEIC Data. The data is categorized under Global Database’s Canada – Table CA.CEIC.NC: CEIC Nowcast: Gross Domestic Product (GDP).

This article proposes a test to determine whether “big data” nowcasting methods, which have become an important tool to many public and private institutions, are monotonically improving as new information becomes available. The test is the first to formalize existing evaluation procedures from the nowcasting literature. We place particular emphasis on models involving estimated factors, since factor-based methods are a leading case in the high-dimensional empirical nowcasting literature, although our test is still applicable to small-dimensional set-ups like bridge equations and MIDAS models. Our approach extends a recent methodology for testing many moment inequalities to the case of nowcast monotonicity testing, which allows the number of inequalities to grow with the sample size. We provide results showing the conditions under which both parameter estimation error and factor estimation error can be accommodated in this high-dimensional setting when using the pseudo out-of-sample approach. The finite sample performance of our test is illustrated using a wide range of Monte Carlo simulations, and we conclude with an empirical application of nowcasting U.S. real gross domestic product (GDP) growth and five GDP sub-components. Our test results confirm monotonicity for all but one sub-component (government spending), suggesting that the factor-augmented model may be misspecified for this GDP constituent. Supplementary materials for this article are available online.

United States - St. Louis Fed Economic News Index: Real GDP Nowcast was 1.59000 % Chg. at Annual Rate in April of 2025, according to the United States Federal Reserve. Historically, United States - St. Louis Fed Economic News Index: Real GDP Nowcast reached a record high of 19.45000 in July of 2020 and a record low of -31.28000 in April of 2020. Trading Economics provides the current actual value, an historical data chart and related indicators for United States - St. Louis Fed Economic News Index: Real GDP Nowcast - last updated from the United States Federal Reserve on August of 2025.

Japan GDP Nowcast: sa: YoY: Next Quarter data was reported at 1.867 % in 12 May 2025. This records an increase from the previous number of 1.753 % for 05 May 2025. Japan GDP Nowcast: sa: YoY: Next Quarter data is updated weekly, averaging 0.615 % from Jan 2019 (Median) to 12 May 2025, with 332 observations. The data reached an all-time high of 8.186 % in 22 Mar 2021 and a record low of -9.653 % in 30 Mar 2020. Japan GDP Nowcast: sa: YoY: Next Quarter data remains active status in CEIC and is reported by CEIC Data. The data is categorized under Global Database’s Japan – Table JP.CEIC.NC: CEIC Nowcast: Gross Domestic Product (GDP).

United States GDP Nowcast: saar: YoY: Contribution: Construction data was reported at 2.471 % in 12 May 2025. This records an increase from the previous number of 2.466 % for 05 May 2025. United States GDP Nowcast: saar: YoY: Contribution: Construction data is updated weekly, averaging 1.100 % from Jan 2019 (Median) to 12 May 2025, with 332 observations. The data reached an all-time high of 6.568 % in 17 Aug 2020 and a record low of 0.001 % in 17 Jun 2019. United States GDP Nowcast: saar: YoY: Contribution: Construction data remains active status in CEIC and is reported by CEIC Data. The data is categorized under Global Database’s United States – Table US.CEIC.NC: CEIC Nowcast: Gross Domestic Product (GDP).

Content

St. Louis Fed’s Economic News Index (ENI) uses economic content from key monthly economic data releases to forecast the growth of real GDP during that quarter. In general, the most-current observation is revised multiple times throughout the quarter. The final forecasted value (before the BEA’s release of the advance estimate of GDP) is the static, historical value for that quarter. For more information, see Grover, Sean P.; Kliesen, Kevin L.; and McCracken, Michael W. “A Macroeconomic News Index for Constructing Nowcasts of U.S. Real Gross Domestic Product Growth" (https://research.stlouisfed.org/publications/review/2016/12/05/a-macroeconomic-news-index-for-constructing-nowcasts-of-u-s-real-gross-domestic-product-growth/ )

Context

This is a dataset from the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis hosted by the Federal Reserve Economic Database (FRED). FRED has a data platform found here and they update their information according to the frequency that the data updates. Explore the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis using Kaggle and all of the data sources available through the St. Louis Fed organization page!

• Update Frequency: This dataset is updated daily.

• Observation Start: 2013-04-01

• Observation End : 2019-10-01

Acknowledgements

This dataset is maintained using FRED's API and Kaggle's API.

Cover photo by Ferdinand Stöhr on Unsplash
Unsplash Images are distributed under a unique Unsplash License.

Inflation Nowcast: Contribution:(GDP) Gross Domestic ProductNowcast: GDP Nowcast: Growth: QoQ: Trailing Quarter: Japan data was reported at 0.495 % in 12 May 2025. This stayed constant from the previous number of 0.495 % for 05 May 2025. Inflation Nowcast: Contribution:(GDP) Gross Domestic ProductNowcast: GDP Nowcast: Growth: QoQ: Trailing Quarter: Japan data is updated weekly, averaging 0.369 % from Jun 2020 (Median) to 12 May 2025, with 259 observations. The data reached an all-time high of 10.802 % in 12 Oct 2020 and a record low of 0.000 % in 11 Mar 2024. Inflation Nowcast: Contribution:(GDP) Gross Domestic ProductNowcast: GDP Nowcast: Growth: QoQ: Trailing Quarter: Japan data remains active status in CEIC and is reported by CEIC Data. The data is categorized under Global Database’s Japan – Table JP.CEIC.NC: CEIC Nowcast: Inflation: Headline.

Inflation Nowcasting Quarterly is a part of the Inflation Nowcasting indicator of the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.

In this article, we develop a mixed frequency dynamic factor model in which the disturbances of both the latent common factor and of the idiosyncratic components have time-varying stochastic volatilities. We use the model to investigate business cycle dynamics in the euro area and present three sets of empirical results. First, we evaluate the impact of macroeconomic releases on point and density forecast accuracy and on the width of forecast intervals. Second, we show how our setup allows to make a probabilistic assessment of the contribution of releases to forecast revisions. Third, we examine point and density out of sample forecast accuracy. We find that introducing stochastic volatility in the model contributes to an improvement in both point and density forecast accuracy. Supplementary materials for this article are available online.

St. Louis Fed Real GDP Nowcast: 12 years of historical data from 2013 to 2025.

The Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland provides daily “nowcasts” of inflation for two popular price indexes, the price index for personal consumption expenditures (PCE) and the Consumer Price Index (CPI). These nowcasts give a sense of where inflation is today. Released each business day.

Germany GDP Nowcast: swda: YoY: Contribution: Consumer Survey: Consumer Confidence Indicator (CI): sa: Euro Area 20 data was reported at 4.494 % in 12 May 2025. This records an increase from the previous number of 3.272 % for 05 May 2025. Germany GDP Nowcast: swda: YoY: Contribution: Consumer Survey: Consumer Confidence Indicator (CI): sa: Euro Area 20 data is updated weekly, averaging 4.428 % from Jan 2019 (Median) to 12 May 2025, with 332 observations. The data reached an all-time high of 6.349 % in 28 Mar 2022 and a record low of 2.100 % in 24 Mar 2025. Germany GDP Nowcast: swda: YoY: Contribution: Consumer Survey: Consumer Confidence Indicator (CI): sa: Euro Area 20 data remains active status in CEIC and is reported by CEIC Data. The data is categorized under Global Database’s Germany – Table DE.CEIC.NC: CEIC Nowcast: Gross Domestic Product (GDP).