The U.S. federal funds effective rate underwent a dramatic reduction in early 2020 in response to the COVID-19 pandemic. The rate plummeted from 1.58 percent in February 2020 to 0.65 percent in March, and further decreased to 0.05 percent in April. This sharp reduction, accompanied by the Federal Reserve's quantitative easing program, was implemented to stabilize the economy during the global health crisis. After maintaining historically low rates for nearly two years, the Federal Reserve began a series of rate hikes in early 2022, with the rate moving from 0.33 percent in April 2022 to 5.33 percent in August 2023. The rate remained unchanged for over a year, before the Federal Reserve initiated its first rate cut in nearly three years in September 2024, bringing the rate to 5.13 percent. By December 2024, the rate was cut to 4.48 percent, signaling a shift in monetary policy in the second half of 2024. In January 2025, the Federal Reserve implemented another cut, setting the rate at 4.33 percent, which remained unchanged throughout the following months. What is the federal funds effective rate? The U.S. federal funds effective rate determines the interest rate paid by depository institutions, such as banks and credit unions, that lend reserve balances to other depository institutions overnight. Changing the effective rate in times of crisis is a common way to stimulate the economy, as it has a significant impact on the whole economy, such as economic growth, employment, and inflation. Central bank policy rates The adjustment of interest rates in response to the COVID-19 pandemic was a coordinated global effort. In early 2020, central banks worldwide implemented aggressive monetary easing policies to combat the economic crisis. The U.S. Federal Reserve's dramatic reduction of its federal funds rate - from 1.58 percent in February 2020 to 0.05 percent by April - mirrored similar actions taken by central banks globally. While these low rates remained in place throughout 2021, mounting inflationary pressures led to a synchronized tightening cycle beginning in 2022, with central banks pushing rates to multi-year highs. By mid-2024, as inflation moderated across major economies, central banks began implementing their first rate cuts in several years, with the U.S. Federal Reserve, Bank of England, and European Central Bank all easing monetary policy.

We use the yield curve to predict future GDP growth and recession probabilities. The spread between short- and long-term rates typically correlates with economic growth. Predications are calculated using a model developed by the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland. Released monthly.

From 2003 to 2025, the central banks of the United States, United Kingdom, and European Union exhibited remarkably similar interest rate patterns, reflecting shared global economic conditions. In the early 2000s, rates were initially low to stimulate growth, then increased as economies showed signs of overheating prior to 2008. The financial crisis that year prompted sharp rate cuts to near-zero levels, which persisted for an extended period to support economic recovery. The COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 led to further rate reductions to historic lows, aiming to mitigate economic fallout. However, surging inflation in 2022 triggered a dramatic policy shift, with the Federal Reserve, Bank of England, and European Central Bank significantly raising rates to curb price pressures. As inflation stabilized in late 2023 and early 2024, the ECB and Bank of England initiated rate cuts by mid-2024, and the Federal Reserve also implemented its first cut in three years, with forecasts suggesting a gradual decrease in all major interest rates between 2025 and 2026. Divergent approaches within the European Union While the ECB sets a benchmark rate for the Eurozone, individual EU countries have adopted diverse strategies to address their unique economic circumstances. For instance, Hungary set the highest rate in the EU at 13 percent in September 2023, gradually reducing it to 6.5 percent by October 2024. In contrast, Sweden implemented more aggressive cuts, lowering its rate to 2.25 percent by February 2025, the lowest among EU members. These variations highlight the complex economic landscape that European central banks must navigate, balancing inflation control with economic growth support. Global context and future outlook The interest rate changes in major economies have had far-reaching effects on global financial markets. Government bond yields, for example, reflect these policy shifts and investor sentiment. As of December 2024, the United States had the highest 10-year government bond yield among developed economies at 4.59 percent, while Switzerland had the lowest at 0.27 percent. These rates serve as important benchmarks for borrowing costs and economic expectations worldwide.

The benchmark interest rate in South Korea was last recorded at 2.50 percent. This dataset provides - South Korea Interest Rate - actual values, historical data, forecast, chart, statistics, economic calendar and news.

Graph and download economic data for Dates of U.S. recessions as inferred by GDP-based recession indicator (JHDUSRGDPBR) from Q4 1967 to Q4 2024 about recession indicators, GDP, and USA.

Policy interest rates in the U.S. and Europe are forecasted to decrease gradually between 2024 and 2027, following exceptional increases triggered by soaring inflation between 2021 and 2023. The U.S. federal funds rate stood at **** percent at the end of 2023, the European Central Bank deposit rate at **** percent, and the Swiss National Bank policy rate at **** percent. With inflationary pressures stabilizing, policy interest rates are forecast to decrease in each observed region. The U.S. federal funds rate is expected to decrease to *** percent, the ECB refi rate to **** percent, the Bank of England bank rate to **** percent, and the Swiss National Bank policy rate to **** percent by 2025. An interesting aspect to note is the impact of these interest rate changes on various economic factors such as growth, employment, and inflation. The impact of central bank policy rates The U.S. federal funds effective rate, crucial in determining the interest rate paid by depository institutions, experienced drastic changes in response to the COVID-19 pandemic. The subsequent slight changes in the effective rate reflected the efforts to stimulate the economy and manage economic factors such as inflation. Such fluctuations in the federal funds rate have had a significant impact on the overall economy. The European Central Bank's decision to cut its fixed interest rate in June 2024 for the first time since 2016 marked a significant shift in attitude towards economic conditions. The reasons behind the fluctuations in the ECB's interest rate reflect its mandate to ensure price stability and manage inflation, shedding light on the complex interplay between interest rates and economic factors. Inflation and real interest rates The relationship between inflation and interest rates is critical in understanding the actions of central banks. Central banks' efforts to manage inflation through interest rate adjustments reveal the intricate balance between economic growth and inflation. Additionally, the concept of real interest rates, adjusted for inflation, provides valuable insights into the impact of inflation on the economy.

The Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in Thailand expanded 3.10 percent in the first quarter of 2025 over the same quarter of the previous year. This dataset provides - Thailand GDP Annual Growth Rate - actual values, historical data, forecast, chart, statistics, economic calendar and news.

This dataset contains three CSV files documenting the relationship between log GDP and infant mortality rates for 30 countries. The data has been compiled to analyze the impact of economic status on child mortality rates. Each file includes relevant variables for conducting cross-national research on this topic.Files:Country_LogGDP.csvThis file contains the log-transformed GDP data for 30 countries.Variables:Country: The name of the country.Year: The year of the observation.LogGDP: The log-transformed value of the country's GDP for the corresponding year.Infant_Mortality.csvThis file provides the infant mortality rate data (number of infant deaths per 1,000 live births) for the same 30 countries.Variables:Country: The name of the country.Year: The year of the observation.Infant_Mortality: The infant mortality rate for the corresponding year.Average_LogGDP_InfantMortality.csvThis file contains the average log GDP and infant mortality rates for the 30 countries.Variables:Country: The name of the country.Average_LogGDP: The average log-transformed GDP for each country over the time period.Average_Infant_Mortality: The average infant mortality rate for each country over the time period.

Graph and download economic data for Federal Net Outlays as Percent of Gross Domestic Product (FYONGDA188S) from 1929 to 2024 about outlays, federal, Net, GDP, and USA.

Full Year GDP Growth in the United States decreased to 2.80 percent in 2024 from 2.90 percent in 2023. This dataset includes a chart with historical data for the United States Full Year GDP Growth.

The Federal Reserve's balance sheet has undergone significant changes since 2007, reflecting its response to major economic crises. From a modest *** trillion U.S. dollars at the end of 2007, it ballooned to approximately **** trillion U.S. dollars by June 2025. This dramatic expansion, particularly during the 2008 financial crisis and the COVID-19 pandemic - both of which resulted in negative annual GDP growth in the U.S. - showcases the Fed's crucial role in stabilizing the economy through expansionary monetary policies. Impact on inflation and interest rates The Fed's expansionary measures, while aimed at stimulating economic growth, have had notable effects on inflation and interest rates. Following the quantitative easing in 2020, inflation in the United States reached ***** percent in 2022, the highest since 1991. However, by *************, inflation had declined to *** percent. Concurrently, the Federal Reserve implemented a series of interest rate hikes, with the rate peaking at **** percent in ***********, before the first rate cut since ************** occurred in **************. Financial implications for the Federal Reserve The expansion of the Fed's balance sheet and subsequent interest rate hikes have had significant financial implications. In 2023, the Fed reported a negative net income of ***** billion U.S. dollars, a stark contrast to the ***** billion U.S. dollars profit in 2022. This unprecedented shift was primarily due to rapidly rising interest rates, which caused the Fed's interest expenses to soar to over *** billion U.S. dollars in 2023. Despite this, the Fed's net interest income on securities acquired through open market operations reached a record high of ****** billion U.S. dollars in the same year.

Full Year GDP Growth in World increased to 3.20 percent in 2024 from 2.80 percent in 2023. This dataset includes a chart with historical data for World Full Year GDP Growth.

Graph and download economic data for Federal Debt Held by the Public as Percent of Gross Domestic Product (FYGFGDQ188S) from Q1 1970 to Q1 2025 about public, debt, federal, GDP, and USA.

Brazil Loans: % of GDP data was reported at 47.200 % in May 2019. This records an increase from the previous number of 47.100 % for Apr 2019. Brazil Loans: % of GDP data is updated monthly, averaging 47.300 % from Mar 2007 (Median) to May 2019, with 147 observations. The data reached an all-time high of 55.100 % in Nov 2013 and a record low of 31.230 % in Mar 2007. Brazil Loans: % of GDP data remains active status in CEIC and is reported by Central Bank of Brazil. The data is categorized under Brazil Premium Database’s Monetary – Table BR.KAB008: Loans: As Percentage of GDP. Brazilian Central Bank has made changes in methodology of Financial System Credit Data in February of 2013 after 13 years following the same methodology. These changes are necessary face the expansion of credit, favored by the improvement of the indicators of employment and income, continuous and sharp reduction of the interest rates and by important institutional advances. It is essential the availability of new information, in particular, which allows more detailed monitoring of credit arrangements with targeted resources, especially real estate financing, whose dynamism has contributed to reducing the housing deficit in the country. The main change includes coverage of data on concessions, interest rates, terms and default rates that were extended to the segment of directed credit and also became necessary to further detailing the statistical framework, to enable identification of the terms most relevant as well as reduce the relative share of loans not classified - embedded in 'other receivables'. Banco Central do Brasil fez mudanças na metodologia de Dados de Crédito do Sistema Financeiro, em fevereiro de 2013 depois de 13 anos seguindo a mesma metodologia. Essas mudanças são fundamentais face a expansão do crédito, favorecido pela melhora dos indicadores de emprego e renda, redução contínua e acentuada das taxas de juro e por importantes avanços institucionais. É imprescindível a disponibilidade de novas informações, em particular, que possibilitem o acompanhamento mais detalhado das modalidades de crédito com recursos direcionados, sobretudo os financiamentos imobiliários, cujo dinamismo tem contribuído para a redução do déficit habitacional no País. A principal alteração compreende a cobertura dos dados relativos a concessões, taxas de juros, prazos e índices de inadimplência que passam a serem estendidos ao segmento de crédito direcionado e também se fez necessário aprofundar o detalhamento do arcabouço estatístico, de modo a possibilitar a identificação das modalidades mais relevantes, bem como reduzir a participação relativa das operações de crédito não classificadas – incorporadas em “outros créditos”.

Graph and download economic data for Gross Federal Debt as Percent of Gross Domestic Product (GFDGDPA188S) from 1939 to 2023 about gross, debt, federal, GDP, and USA.

Graph and download economic data for Federal Surplus or Deficit [-] as Percent of Gross Domestic Product (FYFSGDA188S) from 1929 to 2024 about budget, federal, GDP, and USA.

Real GDP of United States of America improved by 2.80% from 22,062,578,283,267 US dollars in 2023 to 22,679,489,969,556 US dollars in 2024. Since the 2.16% reduction in 2020, real GDP surged by 14.99% in 2024. GDP at purchaser's prices is the sum of gross value added by all resident producers in the economy plus any product taxes and minus any subsidies not included in the value of the products. It is calculated without making deductions for depreciation of fabricated assets or for depletion and degradation of natural resources. Data are in constant 2010 U.S. dollars. Dollar figures for GDP are converted from domestic currencies using 2010 official exchange rates. For a few countries where the official exchange rate does not reflect the rate effectively applied to actual foreign exchange transactions, an alternative conversion factor is used.

Real GDP of Puerto Rico improved by 3.23% from 95,932,378,909 US dollars in 2023 to 99,027,834,181 US dollars in 2024. Since the 4.18% reduction in 2020, real GDP surged by 7.22% in 2024. GDP at purchaser's prices is the sum of gross value added by all resident producers in the economy plus any product taxes and minus any subsidies not included in the value of the products. It is calculated without making deductions for depreciation of fabricated assets or for depletion and degradation of natural resources. Data are in constant 2010 U.S. dollars. Dollar figures for GDP are converted from domestic currencies using 2010 official exchange rates. For a few countries where the official exchange rate does not reflect the rate effectively applied to actual foreign exchange transactions, an alternative conversion factor is used.

The Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in Vietnam expanded 7.96 percent in the second quarter of 2025 over the same quarter of the previous year. This dataset provides the latest reported value for - Vietnam GDP Annual Growth Rate - plus previous releases, historical high and low, short-term forecast and long-term prediction, economic calendar, survey consensus and news.

Brazil Loans: % of GDP: Households: Earmarked data was reported at 12.400 % in May 2019. This stayed constant from the previous number of 12.400 % for Apr 2019. Brazil Loans: % of GDP: Households: Earmarked data is updated monthly, averaging 9.200 % from Mar 2007 (Median) to May 2019, with 147 observations. The data reached an all-time high of 12.400 % in May 2019 and a record low of 4.170 % in Mar 2007. Brazil Loans: % of GDP: Households: Earmarked data remains active status in CEIC and is reported by Central Bank of Brazil. The data is categorized under Brazil Premium Database’s Monetary – Table BR.KAB008: Loans: As Percentage of GDP. Brazilian Central Bank has made changes in methodology of Financial System Credit Data in February of 2013 after 13 years following the same methodology. These changes are necessary face the expansion of credit, favored by the improvement of the indicators of employment and income, continuous and sharp reduction of the interest rates and by important institutional advances. It is essential the availability of new information, in particular, which allows more detailed monitoring of credit arrangements with targeted resources, especially real estate financing, whose dynamism has contributed to reducing the housing deficit in the country. The main change includes coverage of data on concessions, interest rates, terms and default rates that were extended to the segment of directed credit and also became necessary to further detailing the statistical framework, to enable identification of the terms most relevant as well as reduce the relative share of loans not classified - embedded in 'other receivables'. Banco Central do Brasil fez mudanças na metodologia de Dados de Crédito do Sistema Financeiro, em fevereiro de 2013 depois de 13 anos seguindo a mesma metodologia. Essas mudanças são fundamentais face a expansão do crédito, favorecido pela melhora dos indicadores de emprego e renda, redução contínua e acentuada das taxas de juro e por importantes avanços institucionais. É imprescindível a disponibilidade de novas informações, em particular, que possibilitem o acompanhamento mais detalhado das modalidades de crédito com recursos direcionados, sobretudo os financiamentos imobiliários, cujo dinamismo tem contribuído para a redução do déficit habitacional no País. A principal alteração compreende a cobertura dos dados relativos a concessões, taxas de juros, prazos e índices de inadimplência que passam a serem estendidos ao segmento de crédito direcionado e também se fez necessário aprofundar o detalhamento do arcabouço estatístico, de modo a possibilitar a identificação das modalidades mais relevantes, bem como reduzir a participação relativa das operações de crédito não classificadas – incorporadas em “outros créditos”.