According to estimates, if President Trump's proposed tariffs go into effect permanently, the United States' GDP would decrease by 0.4 percent. Of this, 0.3 percent would be from the 25 percent tariff on all imports from Canada and Mexico, while 0.1 percent would be from the 10 percent tariff on all imports from China. As of February 10, China imposed retaliatory tariffs on the United States, with a 15 percent tariff on coal and liquid natural gas, and a 10 percent tariff on other exports, including oil, machinery, and large motor vehicles.

The Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the United States contracted 0.20 percent in the first quarter of 2025 over the previous quarter. This dataset provides the latest reported value for - United States GDP Growth Rate - plus previous releases, historical high and low, short-term forecast and long-term prediction, economic calendar, survey consensus and news.

This data package includes the underlying data to replicate the charts, tables, and calculations presented in The US Revenue Implications of President Trump’s 2025 Tariffs, PIIE Briefing 25-2.

If you use the data, please cite as:

McKibbin, Warwick, and Geoffrey Shuetrim. 2025. The US Revenue Implications of President Trump’s 2025 Tariffs. PIIE Briefing 25-2. Washington: Peterson Institute for International Economics.

According to new estimations, if the 2025 tariffs were to remain in place, the construction industry would be hit hardest, with estimates showing a decline of *** percentage points.

According to new estimations, if the 2025 tariffs were to remain in place, Canada would suffer the most significant long-term shock, with estimates showing a *** percent point drop in their real GDP.

The United States recorded a Government Debt to GDP of 124.30 percent of the country's Gross Domestic Product in 2024. This dataset provides - United States Government Debt To GDP - actual values, historical data, forecast, chart, statistics, economic calendar and news.

Trump_Tariff_Data

This dataset compiles key data points related to the impact and policy measures surrounding U.S. tariffs proposed or implemented by Donald Trump, particularly during the 2024 campaign and policy forecast period. It includes economic and trade metrics that provide context on U.S. trade balances, tariffs, and their international implications.

📁 Files & Structure

The dataset is divided into two main data tables:

📊 Data 1: Country-Level Trade & Tariff Overview

📈 Data 2: Tariff Policy Events & Economic Impact

💡 Use Cases

• Analyze the economic and geopolitical impact of tariff policies
• Forecast inflation or GDP shifts due to trade measures
• Build visual dashboards to compare U.S. trade relations by country
• Study election-cycle economic strategies and their global implications

Let us know if you create something cool using this dataset!

Iran’s gross domestic product (GDP) inclined by 3.33 percent in 2020 after adjusting for inflation. This figure fell from 13.4 percent growth four years ago, which had been a reaction to sanctions lifting after the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JPCOA) regarding Iran’s nuclear program. United States president Donald Trump ended that country’s participation in the deal, imposing new sanctions.

Political influence on the economy

Political tensions have hampered the economy of Iran, keeping growth low in spite of the country’s considerable oil reserves. The effect of these sanctions becomes obvious when looking at Iran’s oil exports to Europe over the past decade. Some analysts have blamed the new sanctions for the increase in Iran’s inflation rate, as well as the currency depreciation that has accompanied it.

Iran’s options

Although Iran’s main export partners are largely in Asia, many of the transactions are carried out using U.S. dollars. Even though other means of payment are possible, some countries worry about political ramifications of continuing trade relations with Iran. Iran’s greatest strength at the moment may be its low national debt, meaning that it can borrow a substantial amount of money if it can find a willing lender. However, given the instability of the political situation worldwide and regionally, it is difficult to assume that such a borrower exists at the moment.

As of the third quarter of 2024, the GDP of the U.S. grew by 2.8 percent from the second quarter of 2024. GDP, or gross domestic product, is effectively a count of the total goods and services produced in a country over a certain period of time. It is calculated by first adding together a country’s total consumer spending, government spending, investments and exports; and then deducting the country’s imports. The values in this statistic are the change in ‘constant price’ or ‘real’ GDP, which means this basic calculation is also adjusted to factor in the regular price changes measured by the U.S. inflation rate. Because of this adjustment, U.S. real annual GDP will differ from the U.S. 'nominal' annual GDP for all years except the baseline from which inflation is calculated. What is annualized GDP? The important thing to note about the growth rates in this statistic is that the values are annualized, meaning the U.S. economy has not actually contracted or grown by the percentage shown. For example, the fall of 29.9 percent in the second quarter of 2020 did not mean GDP is suddenly one third less than a year before. In fact, it means that if the decline seen during that quarter continued at the same rate for a full year, then GDP would decline by this amount. Annualized values can therefore exaggerate the effect of short-term economic shocks, as they only look at economic output during a limited period. This effect can be seen by comparing annualized quarterly growth rates with the annual GDP growth rates for each calendar year.

Unemployment Rate in the United States remained unchanged at 4.20 percent in May. This dataset provides the latest reported value for - United States Unemployment Rate - plus previous releases, historical high and low, short-term forecast and long-term prediction, economic calendar, survey consensus and news.

The Federal Reserve's balance sheet has undergone significant changes since 2007, reflecting its response to major economic crises. From a modest *** trillion U.S. dollars at the end of 2007, it ballooned to approximately **** trillion U.S. dollars by May 2025. This dramatic expansion, particularly during the 2008 financial crisis and the COVID-19 pandemic - both of which resulted in negative annual GDP growth in the U.S. - showcases the Fed's crucial role in stabilizing the economy through expansionary monetary policies. Impact on inflation and interest rates The Fed's expansionary measures, while aimed at stimulating economic growth, have had notable effects on inflation and interest rates. Following the quantitative easing in 2020, inflation in the United States reached * percent in 2022, the highest since 1991. However, by *************, inflation had declined to *** percent. Concurrently, the Federal Reserve implemented a series of interest rate hikes, with the rate peaking at **** percent in ***********, before the first rate cut since ************** occurred in **************. Financial implications for the Federal Reserve The expansion of the Fed's balance sheet and subsequent interest rate hikes have had significant financial implications. In 2023, the Fed reported a negative net income of ***** billion U.S. dollars, a stark contrast to the ***** billion U.S. dollars profit in 2022. This unprecedented shift was primarily due to rapidly rising interest rates, which caused the Fed's interest expenses to soar to over *** billion U.S. dollars in 2023. Despite this, the Fed's net interest income on securities acquired through open market operations reached a record high of ****** billion U.S. dollars in the same year.

The unemployment rate in the Republic of Ireland was four percent in March 2025, compared with 3.9 percent in the previous month. Between 2000 and 2007, Ireland's unemployment rate was broadly stable, fluctuating between 3.9 and 5.4 percent. Following the global financial crisis, however, Ireland's unemployment rate increased dramatically, eventually peaking at 16.1 percent in early 2012. For the next eight years, unemployment gradually fell, eventually reaching pre-crisis levels in the late 2010s. This was, however, followed by an uptick in unemployment due to the COVID-19 pandemic, which peaked at 7.6 percent in March 2021, before falling to pre-pandemic levels by February 2022. Risk and rewards of the Irish economic model After being quite hard hit by the global financial crisis of 2008, Ireland staged a strong recovery in the mid-2010s, and was frequently the EU's fastest growing economy between 2014 and 2022. This growth, was however, fueled in part by multinational companies, such as Apple, basing their European operations in the country. As of 2022, an adjusted measure of gross national income valued Ireland's economy at around 273 billion Euros, rather than the 506 billion Euros GDP figure. Ireland's close economic relationship with American tech companies also leaves it vulnerable to the political weather in the United States. It is currently unclear, for example, what the recent return to power of Donald Trump as President in early 2025 could mean for the Irish economy going forward. Ireland's labor market As of the third quarter of 2024, there were approximately 2.79 million people employed in the Republic of Ireland. Of these workers, 379,200 people worked in Ireland's human health and social work sector, the most of any industry at that time. Other sectors with high employment levels include wholesale and retail trade, at 323,500 people, and education, at 228,200 people. While unemployment still remains quite low, some indicators suggest a moderate loosening of the labor market. Job vacancies, are slightly down from their peak of 35,300 in Q2 2022, amounting to 28,900 in Q3 2024, while youth unemployment has begun to tick upwards, and was 11.9 percent in January 2025.

The United States recorded a trade deficit of 61.62 USD Billion in April of 2025. This dataset provides the latest reported value for - United States Balance of Trade - plus previous releases, historical high and low, short-term forecast and long-term prediction, economic calendar, survey consensus and news.

In 2023, the U.S. government had a budget deficit of 1.69 trillion U.S. dollars. This is compared to 2000, when the government had a budget surplus of 0.24 trillion U.S. dollars.

U.S. Government budget

The government budget is a financial statement that demonstrates the government’s suggested revenues and spending for the financial year. Budget surpluses occur when income exceeds expenditures. Budget deficits occur when spending exceeds income. The budget balance of the U.S. government has fluctuated since 2016, and is expected to decrease slightly by 2026.

Military spending

Defense outlays in the United States amounted to 714 billion U.S. dollars in 2020. It is expected to continue to increase over the next several years. The United States currently has the largest defense budget in the world, and is the largest employer in the world. The military budget funds the Army, Marine Corps, Navy, and Air Force. The amount of funding that goes towards the Department of Defense is heavily criticized by Democrats in the United States, because they believe that the funding should be more evenly distributed towards other social welfare programs such as public health insurance and education.

In 2024, the United Kingdom's defence spending as a share of Gross Domestic Product is estimated to be 2.3 percent. Between 1980 and 2024, the UK's defence spending was at its highest in 1984 when 5.5 percent of the UK's GDP was spent on the military. After 1984, defence spending declined gradually, and then at a much faster pace after the end of the Cold War in 1991. It is estimated that defence spending as a share of GDP fell to its lowest level in 2015 when it was two percent. Armed forces fall to record lows in 2024 Since the early 1950s, there has been a consistent reduction in the size of the UK's armed forces. The importance of Britain maintaining a large standing army declined following the collapse of the British Empire by the late 1970s, and the end of the Cold War around a decade later. At the start of the 1990s, there were approximately 300,000 personnel in the armed forces, with this falling to 200,000 by 2005. Following a further strategic review of the army's capabilities in 2010, additional cuts to personnel were implemented, with cuts of approximately 50,000 throughout the 2010s. As of 2024, there were 75,320 personnel in the Army, 30,800 in the Royal Air Force, and 32,000 in the Royal Navy and Marines, a total of 138,120 active personnel. The UK and NATO The UK is one of the twelve founding members of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO), a military alliance formed in 1949. NATO's initial purpose was to defend Western Europe against the Soviet Union, with its role evolving to include peacekeeping and counter-terrorism after the end of the Cold War. As of 2025, the alliance includes 32 nations, with just two of these (Canada and the United States) outside of Europe. The United States is by far the largest military power in the alliance, dominating in terms of manpower, equipment, and military spending. Donald Trump's return to the White House in 2025, who has been skeptical of NATO, may prove difficult for the alliance should he distance the U.S. from Europe's security challenges.