By April 2026, it is projected that there is a probability of ***** percent that the United States will fall into another economic recession. This reflects a significant decrease from the projection of the preceding month.

The Long Depression was, by a large margin, the longest-lasting recession in U.S. history. It began in the U.S. with the Panic of 1873, and lasted for over five years. This depression was the largest in a series of recessions at the turn of the 20th century, which proved to be a period of overall stagnation as the U.S. financial markets failed to keep pace with industrialization and changes in monetary policy. Great Depression The Great Depression, however, is widely considered to have been the most severe recession in U.S. history. Following the Wall Street Crash in 1929, the country's economy collapsed, wages fell and a quarter of the workforce was unemployed. It would take almost four years for recovery to begin. Additionally, U.S. expansion and integration in international markets allowed the depression to become a global event, which became a major catalyst in the build up to the Second World War. Decreasing severity When comparing recessions before and after the Great Depression, they have generally become shorter and less frequent over time. Only three recessions in the latter period have lasted more than one year. Additionally, while there were 12 recessions between 1880 and 1920, there were only six recessions between 1980 and 2020. The most severe recession in recent years was the financial crisis of 2007 (known as the Great Recession), where irresponsible lending policies and lack of government regulation allowed for a property bubble to develop and become detached from the economy over time, this eventually became untenable and the bubble burst. Although the causes of both the Great Depression and Great Recession were similar in many aspects, economists have been able to use historical evidence to try and predict, prevent, or limit the impact of future recessions.

Graph and download economic data for Real-time Sahm Rule Recession Indicator (SAHMREALTIME) from Dec 1959 to Jun 2025 about recession indicators, academic data, and USA.

Since the beginning of the 21st century, the BRICS countries have been considered the five foremost developing economies in the world. Originally, the term BRIC was used by economists when talking about the emerging economies of Brazil, Russia, India, and China, however these countries have held annual summits since 2009, and the group has expanded to include South Africa since 2010. China has the largest GDP of the BRICS country, at 16.86 trillion U.S. dollars in 2021, while the others are all below three trillion. Combined, the BRICS bloc has a GDP over 25.85 trillion U.S. dollars in 2022, which is slightly more than the United States. BRICS economic development China has consistently been the largest economy of this bloc, and its rapid growth has seen it become the second largest economy in the world, behind the U.S.. China's growth has also been much faster than the other BRICS countries; for example, when compared with the second largest BRICS economy, its GDP was less than double the size of Brazil's in 2000, but is almost six times larger than India's in 2021. Since 2000, the country with the second largest GDP has fluctuated between Brazil, Russia, and India, due to a variety of factors, although India has held this position since 2015 (when the other two experienced recession), and it's growth rate is on track to surpass China's in the coming decade. South Africa has consistently had the smallest economy of the BRICS bloc, and it has just the third largest economy in Africa; its inclusion in this group is due to the fact that it is the most advanced and stable major economy in Africa, and it holds strategic importance due to the financial potential of the continent in the coming decades. Future developments It is predicted that China's GDP will overtake that of the U.S. by the end of the 2020s, to become the largest economy in the world, while some also estimate that India will also overtake the U.S. around the middle of the century. Additionally, the BRICS group is more than just an economic or trading bloc, and its New Development Bank was established in 2014 to invest in sustainable infrastructure and renewable energy across the globe. While relations between its members were often strained or of less significance in the 20th century, their current initiatives have given them a much greater international influence. The traditional great powers represented in the Group of Seven (G7) have seen their international power wane in recent decades, while BRICS countries have seen theirs grow, especially on a regional level. Today, the original BRIC countries combine with the Group of Seven (G7), to make up 11 of the world's 12 largest economies, but it is predicted that they will move further up on this list in the coming decades.