Over the last several decades, the price of WTI crude oil has been affected by notable events and crises taking place throughout the world. The inflation adjusted price of one barrel of crude oil peaked shortly before the global financial crisis in 2008 at ****** real U.S. dollars. By the first quarter of 2009, the crude oil price had plummeted to ***** real U.S. dollars per barrel. By comparison, the through price during the coronavirus pandemic was ***** real U.S. dollars.

This 6MB download is a zip file containing 5 pdf documents and 2 xlsx spreadsheets. Presentation on COVID-19 and the potential impacts on employment

May 2020Waka Kotahi wants to better understand the potential implications of the COVID-19 downturn on the land transport system, particularly the potential impacts on regional economies and communities.

To do this, in May 2020 Waka Kotahi commissioned Martin Jenkins and Infometrics to consider the potential impacts of COVID-19 on New Zealand’s economy and demographics, as these are two key drivers of transport demand. In addition to providing a scan of national and international COVID-19 trends, the research involved modelling the economic impacts of three of the Treasury’s COVID-19 scenarios, to a regional scale, to help us understand where the impacts might be greatest.

Waka Kotahi studied this modelling by comparing the percentage difference in employment forecasts from the Treasury’s three COVID-19 scenarios compared to the business as usual scenario.

The source tables from the modelling (Tables 1-40), and the percentage difference in employment forecasts (Tables 41-43), are available as spreadsheets.

Arataki - potential impacts of COVID-19 Final Report

Employment modelling - interactive dashboard

The modelling produced employment forecasts for each region and district over three time periods – 2021, 2025 and 2031. In May 2020, the forecasts for 2021 carried greater certainty as they reflected the impacts of current events, such as border restrictions, reduction in international visitors and students etc. The 2025 and 2031 forecasts were less certain because of the potential for significant shifts in the socio-economic situation over the intervening years. While these later forecasts were useful in helping to understand the relative scale and duration of potential COVID-19 related impacts around the country, they needed to be treated with care recognising the higher levels of uncertainty.

The May 2020 research suggested that the ‘slow recovery scenario’ (Treasury’s scenario 5) was the most likely due to continuing high levels of uncertainty regarding global efforts to manage the pandemic (and the duration and scale of the resulting economic downturn).

The updates to Arataki V2 were framed around the ‘Slower Recovery Scenario’, as that scenario remained the most closely aligned with the unfolding impacts of COVID-19 in New Zealand and globally at that time.

Find out more about Arataki, our 10-year plan for the land transport system

May 2021The May 2021 update to employment modelling used to inform Arataki Version 2 is now available. Employment modelling dashboard - updated 2021Arataki used the May 2020 information to compare how various regions and industries might be impacted by COVID-19. Almost a year later, it is clear that New Zealand fared better than forecast in May 2020.Waka Kotahi therefore commissioned an update to the projections through a high-level review of:the original projections for 2020/21 against performancethe implications of the most recent global (eg International monetary fund world economic Outlook) and national economic forecasts (eg Treasury half year economic and fiscal update)The treasury updated its scenarios in its December half year fiscal and economic update (HYEFU) and these new scenarios have been used for the revised projections.Considerable uncertainty remains about the potential scale and duration of the COVID-19 downturn, for example with regards to the duration of border restrictions, update of immunisation programmes. The updated analysis provides us with additional information regarding which sectors and parts of the country are likely to be most impacted. We continue to monitor the situation and keep up to date with other cross-Government scenario development and COVID-19 related work. The updated modelling has produced employment forecasts for each region and district over three time periods - 2022, 2025, 2031.The 2022 forecasts carry greater certainty as they reflect the impacts of current events. The 2025 and 2031 forecasts are less certain because of the potential for significant shifts over that time.

Data reuse caveats: as per license.

Additionally, please read / use this data in conjunction with the Infometrics and Martin Jenkins reports, to understand the uncertainties and assumptions involved in modelling the potential impacts of COVID-19.

COVID-19’s effect on industry and regional economic outcomes for NZ Transport Agency [PDF 620 KB]

Data quality statement: while the modelling undertaken is high quality, it represents two point-in-time analyses undertaken during a period of considerable uncertainty. This uncertainty comes from several factors relating to the COVID-19 pandemic, including:

a lack of clarity about the size of the global downturn and how quickly the international economy might recover differing views about the ability of the New Zealand economy to bounce back from the significant job losses that are occurring and how much of a structural change in the economy is required the possibility of a further wave of COVID-19 cases within New Zealand that might require a return to Alert Levels 3 or 4.

While high levels of uncertainty remain around the scale of impacts from the pandemic, particularly in coming years, the modelling is useful in indicating the direction of travel and the relative scale of impacts in different parts of the country.

Data quality caveats: as noted above, there is considerable uncertainty about the potential scale and duration of the COVID-19 downturn. Please treat the specific results of the modelling carefully, particularly in the forecasts to later years (2025, 2031), given the potential for significant shifts in New Zealand's socio-economic situation before then.

As such, please use the modelling results as a guide to the potential scale of the impacts of the downturn in different locations, rather than as a precise assessment of impacts over the coming decade.

Inflation is generally defined as the continued increase in the average prices of goods and services in a given region. Following the extremely high global inflation experienced in the 1980s and 1990s, global inflation has been relatively stable since the turn of the millennium, usually hovering between three and five percent per year. There was a sharp increase in 2008 due to the global financial crisis now known as the Great Recession, but inflation was fairly stable throughout the 2010s, before the current inflation crisis began in 2021. Recent years Despite the economic impact of the coronavirus pandemic, the global inflation rate fell to 3.26 percent in the pandemic's first year, before rising to 4.66 percent in 2021. This increase came as the impact of supply chain delays began to take more of an effect on consumer prices, before the Russia-Ukraine war exacerbated this further. A series of compounding issues such as rising energy and food prices, fiscal instability in the wake of the pandemic, and consumer insecurity have created a new global recession, and global inflation in 2024 is estimated to have reached 5.76 percent. This is the highest annual increase in inflation since 1996. Venezuela Venezuela is the country with the highest individual inflation rate in the world, forecast at around 200 percent in 2022. While this is figure is over 100 times larger than the global average in most years, it actually marks a decrease in Venezuela's inflation rate, which had peaked at over 65,000 percent in 2018. Between 2016 and 2021, Venezuela experienced hyperinflation due to the government's excessive spending and printing of money in an attempt to curve its already-high inflation rate, and the wave of migrants that left the country resulted in one of the largest refugee crises in recent years. In addition to its economic problems, political instability and foreign sanctions pose further long-term problems for Venezuela. While hyperinflation may be coming to an end, it remains to be seen how much of an impact this will have on the economy, how living standards will change, and how many refugees may return in the coming years.

United States GDP Counterfactual Tracker: % Change from Pre-Crisis Trend: Low data was reported at -3.951 % in 30 Jan 2022. This records an increase from the previous number of -4.087 % for 23 Jan 2022. United States GDP Counterfactual Tracker: % Change from Pre-Crisis Trend: Low data is updated weekly, averaging -4.291 % from May 2020 (Median) to 30 Jan 2022, with 91 observations. The data reached an all-time high of 0.060 % in 14 Nov 2021 and a record low of -17.584 % in 24 May 2020. United States GDP Counterfactual Tracker: % Change from Pre-Crisis Trend: Low data remains active status in CEIC and is reported by Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development. The data is categorized under Global Database’s United States – Table US.OECD.WT: GDP Growth Tracker: Weekly.

Slovakia GDP Counterfactual Tracker: % Change from Pre-Crisis Trend: Low data was reported at 2.592 % in Jul 2022. This records a decrease from the previous number of 6.463 % for Apr 2022. Slovakia GDP Counterfactual Tracker: % Change from Pre-Crisis Trend: Low data is updated quarterly, averaging -6.874 % from Jan 2020 (Median) to Jul 2022, with 11 observations. The data reached an all-time high of 6.463 % in Apr 2022 and a record low of -12.353 % in Apr 2020. Slovakia GDP Counterfactual Tracker: % Change from Pre-Crisis Trend: Low data remains active status in CEIC and is reported by Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development. The data is categorized under Global Database’s Slovakia – Table SK.OECD.WT: GDP Growth Tracker: Quarterly.

The linkages between the US and China, the world’s two major agricultural powers, have brought great uncertainty to the global food markets. Inspired by these, this paper examines the extreme risk spillovers between US and Chinese agricultural futures markets during significant crises. We use a copula-conditional value at risk (CoVaR) model with Markov-switching regimes to capture the tail dependence in their pair markets. The study covers the period from January 2006 to December 2022 and identifies two distinct dependence regimes (stable and crisis periods). Moreover, we find significant and asymmetric upside/downside extreme risk spillovers between the US and Chinese markets, which are highly volatile in crises. Additionally, the impact of international capital flows (the financial channel) on risk spillovers is particularly pronounced during the global financial crisis. During the period of the COVID-19 pandemic and the Russia-Ukraine 2022 war, the impact of supply chain disruptions (the non-financial channel) is highlighted. Our findings provide a theoretical reference for monitoring the co-movements in agricultural futures markets and practical insights for managing investment portfolios and enhancing food market stability during crises.

Canada GDP Counterfactual Tracker: % Change from Pre-Crisis Trend: High data was reported at -0.325 % in 30 Jan 2022. This records a decrease from the previous number of 1.404 % for 23 Jan 2022. Canada GDP Counterfactual Tracker: % Change from Pre-Crisis Trend: High data is updated weekly, averaging -2.325 % from May 2020 (Median) to 30 Jan 2022, with 91 observations. The data reached an all-time high of 1.404 % in 23 Jan 2022 and a record low of -9.373 % in 24 May 2020. Canada GDP Counterfactual Tracker: % Change from Pre-Crisis Trend: High data remains active status in CEIC and is reported by Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development. The data is categorized under Global Database’s Canada – Table CA.OECD.WT: GDP Growth Tracker: Weekly.

The regression results during the period of the COVID-19 pandemic and the Russia-Ukraine war in 2022.

Russia GDP Counterfactual Tracker: % Change from Pre-Crisis Trend: Low data was reported at -0.773 % in 30 Jan 2022. This records a decrease from the previous number of -0.760 % for 23 Jan 2022. Russia GDP Counterfactual Tracker: % Change from Pre-Crisis Trend: Low data is updated weekly, averaging -5.474 % from Apr 2020 (Median) to 30 Jan 2022, with 96 observations. The data reached an all-time high of 4.423 % in 12 Dec 2021 and a record low of -20.771 % in 12 Apr 2020. Russia GDP Counterfactual Tracker: % Change from Pre-Crisis Trend: Low data remains active status in CEIC and is reported by Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development. The data is categorized under Global Database’s Russian Federation – Table RU.OECD.WT: GDP Growth Tracker: Weekly.

In 2022, when asked how the coronavirus (COVID-19) crisis and home working affected their companies, ** percent of respondents indicated an increase in quality of work/life balance. However, ** percent reported a decrease in mental wellness.

In 2020, global gross domestic product declined by 6.7 percent as a result of the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic outbreak. In Latin America, overall GDP loss amounted to 8.5 percent.

Canada GDP Counterfactual Tracker: % Change from Pre-Crisis Trend data was reported at -2.576 % in 30 Jan 2022. This records a decrease from the previous number of -1.588 % for 23 Jan 2022. Canada GDP Counterfactual Tracker: % Change from Pre-Crisis Trend data is updated weekly, averaging -4.192 % from May 2020 (Median) to 30 Jan 2022, with 91 observations. The data reached an all-time high of -0.729 % in 14 Nov 2021 and a record low of -13.371 % in 24 May 2020. Canada GDP Counterfactual Tracker: % Change from Pre-Crisis Trend data remains active status in CEIC and is reported by Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development. The data is categorized under Global Database’s Canada – Table CA.OECD.WT: GDP Growth Tracker: Weekly.

The regression results during the US-China trade war (only including the period before the COVID-19 pandemic).

Descriptive statistics of the sample from January 2006 to May 2020.

Snapshot img { margin: 10px !important; } Global Fabrication Gold Industry Overview

The demand for gold is increasing in countries such as India, China, and Turkey, owing to the rise in disposable income and economic growth. Also, the cultural importance of gold jewelry forms a direct link with the economic development. The global demand for fabrication gold witnessed a significant decline before 2016, due to the global economic downturn. However, the demand for gold used in jewelry witnessed a growth in demand in 2017 owing to improving economic conditions. The demand for gold in India is expected to improve during the forecast period. In addition, the growing employment in the tertiary sectors also contributed to the growth of the middle-class population in the aforementioned countries over the last decade. This intensifies the demand for gold as a long-term investment, thus driving the fabrication gold market growth during the forecast period.

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Top fabrication gold vendors listed in this report

The fabrication gold market is fragmented as the market is home to a number of companies. The market is currently in its late growth phase and exposed to opportunities and innovations. This fabrication gold industry analysis report will aid clients in identifying new growth opportunities and designing new growth strategies.

The report offers a complete analysis of fabrication gold companies including:

AngloGold Ashanti
Barrick Gold
Goldcorp
Kinross Gold
Newmont Mining

Fabrication gold market growth based on geographic regions:

Americas
APAC
EMEA

With a complete study of the growth opportunities for companies across regions such as the Americas, APAC, and EMEA, our industry research analysts have estimated that countries in APAC will constitute the maximum growth of this fabrication gold market through the predicted period. Growth in this region is attributed to the increasing disposable income in countries such as India, China, and Turkey.

Fabrication gold market growth based on application:

Jewelry
Electronics
Official coins
Medical

According to our market research experts, the jewelry segment will account for the maximum growth of the market. Additionally, the report provides an accurate prediction of the contribution of the various application segments in the growth of the fabrication gold market size.

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Key highlights of the global fabrication gold market for the forecast years 2018-2022:

CAGR of the market during the forecast period 2018-2022
Detailed information on factors that will accelerate the growth of the fabrication gold market during the next five years
Precise estimation of the global fabrication gold size and its contribution to the parent market
Accurate predictions on upcoming trends and changes in consumer behavior
The growth of the fabrication gold industry across various geographies such as the Americas, APAC, and EMEA
A thorough analysis of the market’s competitive landscape and detailed information on several vendors
Comprehensive information about factors that will challenge the growth of fabrication gold companies

What’s your takeaway?

This market research report analyzes the market outlook and provides a list of key trends, drivers, and challenges that are anticipated to impact the global fabrication gold market and its stakeholders over the forecast years. Market research analysts at Technavio have also considered how the performance of other related markets in the vertical will impact fabrication gold market size till 2022. To know more about markets which will influence the growth of the fabrication gold market over the coming years, Click here.

Want to dial in on a specific region or segment? We can help! Our analysts can customize this report to meet your requirements. Get in touch.

The statistic shows global gross domestic product (GDP) from 1985 to 2024, with projections up until 2030. In 2020, global GDP amounted to about 85.76 trillion U.S. dollars, two and a half trillion lower than in 2019. Gross domestic product Gross domestic product, also known as GDP, is the accumulated value of all finished goods and services produced in a country, often measured annually. GDP is significant in determining the economic health, growth and productivity in the country, and is a stat often used when comparing several countries at a time, most likely in order to determine which country has seen the most progress. Until 2020, Global GDP had experienced a growth every year since 2010. However, a strong growth rate does not necessarily lead to all positive outcomes and often has a negative effect on inflation rates. A severe growth in GDP leads to lower unemployment, however lower unemployment often leads to higher inflation rates due to demand increasing at a much higher rate than supply and as a result prices rise accordingly. In terms of unemployment, growth had been fairly stagnant since the economic downturn of 2007-2009, but it remains to be seen what the total impact of the coronavirus pandemic will be on total employment.

Sweden GDP Counterfactual Tracker: % Change from Pre-Crisis Trend data was reported at 1.682 % in 30 Jan 2022. This records an increase from the previous number of -0.743 % for 23 Jan 2022. Sweden GDP Counterfactual Tracker: % Change from Pre-Crisis Trend data is updated weekly, averaging -0.732 % from May 2020 (Median) to 30 Jan 2022, with 91 observations. The data reached an all-time high of 3.711 % in 07 Nov 2021 and a record low of -6.510 % in 24 May 2020. Sweden GDP Counterfactual Tracker: % Change from Pre-Crisis Trend data remains active status in CEIC and is reported by Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development. The data is categorized under Global Database’s Sweden – Table SE.OECD.WT: GDP Growth Tracker: Weekly.

Graph and download economic data for Dates of U.S. recessions as inferred by GDP-based recession indicator (JHDUSRGDPBR) from Q4 1967 to Q4 2024 about recession indicators, GDP, and USA.

The UK inflation rate was 3.5 percent in April 2025, up from 2.6 percent in the previous month, and the fastest rate of inflation since February 2024. Between September 2022 and March 2023, the UK experienced seven months of double-digit inflation, which peaked at 11.1 percent in October 2022. Due to this long period of high inflation, UK consumer prices have increased by over 20 percent in the last three years. As of the most recent month, prices were rising fastest in the communications sector, at 6.1 percent, but were falling in both the furniture and transport sectors, at -0.3 percent and -0.6 percent respectively.
The Cost of Living Crisis High inflation is one of the main factors behind the ongoing Cost of Living Crisis in the UK, which, despite subsiding somewhat in 2024, is still impacting households going into 2025. In December 2024, for example, 56 percent of UK households reported their cost of living was increasing compared with the previous month, up from 45 percent in July, but far lower than at the height of the crisis in 2022. After global energy prices spiraled that year, the UK's energy price cap increased substantially. The cap, which limits what suppliers can charge consumers, reached 3,549 British pounds per year in October 2022, compared with 1,277 pounds a year earlier. Along with soaring food costs, high-energy bills have hit UK households hard, especially lower income ones that spend more of their earnings on housing costs. As a result of these factors, UK households experienced their biggest fall in living standards in decades in 2022/23. Global inflation crisis causes rapid surge in prices The UK's high inflation, and cost of living crisis in 2022 had its origins in the COVID-19 pandemic. Following the initial waves of the virus, global supply chains struggled to meet the renewed demand for goods and services. Food and energy prices, which were already high, increased further in 2022. Russia's invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 brought an end to the era of cheap gas flowing to European markets from Russia. The war also disrupted global food markets, as both Russia and Ukraine are major exporters of cereal crops. As a result of these factors, inflation surged across Europe and in other parts of the world, but typically declined in 2023, and approached more usual levels by 2024.

Summarization of the VaR, CoVaR, and ΔCoVaR for agricultural futures.