It is estimated that from 2020 to 2021, the mean rate of excess deaths associated with the COVID-19 pandemic from all-causes was highest in Peru. In 2020-2021, there were around 437 excess deaths due to the COVID-19 pandemic per 100,000 population in Peru. This statistic shows the mean number of excess deaths associated with the COVID-19 pandemic from all-causes in 2020-2021 in select countries worldwide, per 100,000 population.

It is estimated that by the end of 2021 the COVID-19 pandemic had caused around 14.9 million excess deaths worldwide. South-East Asia accounted for the highest number of these deaths with about 5.99 million excess deaths due to the pandemic. This statistic shows the cumulative mean number of excess deaths associated with the COVID-19 pandemic worldwide as of the end of 2021, by region.

Excess Death excl COVID: Predicted: Total Estimate: Hawaii data was reported at 1,382.000 Number in 16 Sep 2023. This stayed constant from the previous number of 1,382.000 Number for 09 Sep 2023. Excess Death excl COVID: Predicted: Total Estimate: Hawaii data is updated weekly, averaging 1,382.000 Number from Jan 2017 (Median) to 16 Sep 2023, with 350 observations. The data reached an all-time high of 1,382.000 Number in 16 Sep 2023 and a record low of 1,382.000 Number in 16 Sep 2023. Excess Death excl COVID: Predicted: Total Estimate: Hawaii data remains active status in CEIC and is reported by Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. The data is categorized under Global Database’s United States – Table US.G012: Number of Excess Deaths: by States: All Causes excluding COVID-19: Predicted (Discontinued).

It is estimated that by the end of 2021 the COVID-19 pandemic had caused around 14.9 million excess deaths worldwide. This statistic shows the cumulative mean number of excess deaths associated with the COVID-19 pandemic worldwide in 2020-2021, by month.

Excess Death excl COVID: Predicted: Single Estimate: Missouri data was reported at 6.000 Number in 16 Sep 2023. This records an increase from the previous number of 0.000 Number for 09 Sep 2023. Excess Death excl COVID: Predicted: Single Estimate: Missouri data is updated weekly, averaging 0.000 Number from Jan 2017 (Median) to 16 Sep 2023, with 350 observations. The data reached an all-time high of 299.000 Number in 20 Jan 2018 and a record low of 0.000 Number in 09 Sep 2023. Excess Death excl COVID: Predicted: Single Estimate: Missouri data remains active status in CEIC and is reported by Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. The data is categorized under Global Database’s United States – Table US.G012: Number of Excess Deaths: by States: All Causes excluding COVID-19: Predicted (Discontinued).

Daily updates of Covid-19 Global Excess Deaths from the Economist's GitHub repository: https://github.com/TheEconomist/covid-19-the-economist-global-excess-deaths-model

Interpreting estimates

Estimating excess deaths for every country every day since the pandemic began is a complex and difficult task. Rather than being overly confident in a single number, limited data means that we can often only give a very very wide range of plausible values. Focusing on central estimates in such cases would be misleading: unless ranges are very narrow, the 95% range should be reported when possible. The ranges assume that the conditions for bootstrap confidence intervals are met. Please see our tracker page and methodology for more information.

New variants

The Omicron variant, first detected in southern Africa in November 2021, appears to have characteristics that are different to earlier versions of sars-cov-2. Where this variant is now dominant, this change makes estimates uncertain beyond the ranges indicated. Other new variants may do the same. As more data is incorporated from places where new variants are dominant, predictions improve.

Non-reporting countries

Turkmenistan and the Democratic People's Republic of Korea have not reported any covid-19 figures since the start of the pandemic. They also have not published all-cause mortality data. Exports of estimates for the Democratic People's Republic of Korea have been temporarily disabled as it now issues contradictory data: reporting a significant outbreak through its state media, but zero confirmed covid-19 cases/deaths to the WHO.

Acknowledgements

A special thanks to all our sources and to those who have made the data to create these estimates available. We list all our sources in our methodology. Within script 1, the source for each variable is also given as the data is loaded, with the exception of our sources for excess deaths data, which we detail in on our free-to-read excess deaths tracker as well as on GitHub. The gradient booster implementation used to fit the models is aGTBoost, detailed here.

Calculating excess deaths for the entire world over multiple years is both complex and imprecise. We welcome any suggestions on how to improve the model, be it data, algorithm, or logic. If you have one, please open an issue.

The Economist would also like to acknowledge the many people who have helped us refine the model so far, be it through discussions, facilitating data access, or offering coding assistance. A special thanks to Ariel Karlinsky, Philip Schellekens, Oliver Watson, Lukas Appelhans, Berent Å. S. Lunde, Gideon Wakefield, Johannes Hunger, Carol D'Souza, Yun Wei, Mehran Hosseini, Samantha Dolan, Mollie Van Gordon, Rahul Arora, Austin Teda Atmaja, Dirk Eddelbuettel and Tom Wenseleers.

All coding and data collection to construct these models (and make them update dynamically) was done by Sondre Ulvund Solstad. Should you have any questions about them after reading the methodology, please open an issue or contact him at sondresolstad@economist.com.

Suggested citation The Economist and Solstad, S. (corresponding author), 2021. The pandemic’s true death toll. [online] The Economist. Available at: https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/coronavirus-excess-deaths-estimates [Accessed ---]. First published in the article "Counting the dead", The Economist, issue 20, 2021.

United States Excess Death excl COVID: Predicted: Single Estimate: Arkansas data was reported at 0.000 Number in 16 Sep 2023. This records a decrease from the previous number of 41.000 Number for 09 Sep 2023. United States Excess Death excl COVID: Predicted: Single Estimate: Arkansas data is updated weekly, averaging 10.000 Number from Jan 2017 (Median) to 16 Sep 2023, with 350 observations. The data reached an all-time high of 112.000 Number in 13 Jan 2018 and a record low of 0.000 Number in 16 Sep 2023. United States Excess Death excl COVID: Predicted: Single Estimate: Arkansas data remains active status in CEIC and is reported by Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. The data is categorized under Global Database’s United States – Table US.G012: Number of Excess Deaths: by States: All Causes excluding COVID-19: Predicted (Discontinued).

United States Excess Death excl COVID: Predicted: Single Excess Est: Wyoming data was reported at 0.000 Number in 16 Sep 2023. This stayed constant from the previous number of 0.000 Number for 09 Sep 2023. United States Excess Death excl COVID: Predicted: Single Excess Est: Wyoming data is updated weekly, averaging 2.000 Number from Jan 2017 (Median) to 16 Sep 2023, with 350 observations. The data reached an all-time high of 51.000 Number in 04 Jan 2020 and a record low of 0.000 Number in 16 Sep 2023. United States Excess Death excl COVID: Predicted: Single Excess Est: Wyoming data remains active status in CEIC and is reported by Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. The data is categorized under Global Database’s United States – Table US.G012: Number of Excess Deaths: by States: All Causes excluding COVID-19: Predicted (Discontinued).

It is estimated that in 2020 the COVID-19 pandemic caused around 762,927 excess deaths among females worldwide aged 80 years and older. This statistic shows the mean number of excess deaths associated with the COVID-19 pandemic from all-causes worldwide in 2020, by age and gender.

Abstract INTRODUCTION: In March 2020, the World Health Organization declared the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) outbreak a pandemic. In Brazil, 110 thousand cases and 5,901 deaths were confirmed by the end of April 2020. The scarcity of laboratory resources, the overload on the service network, and the broad clinical spectrum of the disease make it difficult to document all the deaths due to COVID-19. The aim of this study was to assess the mortality rate in Brazilian capitals with a high incidence of COVID-19. METHODS: We assessed the weekly mortality between epidemiological week 1 and 16 in 2020 and the corresponding period in 2019. We estimated the expected mortality at 95% confidence interval by projecting the mortality in 2019 to the population in 2020, using data from the National Association of Civil Registrars (ARPEN-Brasil). RESULTS: In the five capitals with the highest incidence of COVID-19, we identified excess deaths during the pandemic. The age group above 60 years was severely affected, while 31% of the excess deaths occurred in the age group of 20-59 years. There was a strong correlation (r = 0.94) between excess deaths and the number of deaths confirmed by epidemiological monitoring. The epidemiological surveillance captured only 52% of all mortality associated with the COVID-19 pandemic in the cities examined. CONCLUSIONS: Considering the simplicity of the method and its low cost, we believe that the assessment of excess mortality associated with the COVID-19 pandemic should be used as a complementary tool for regular epidemiological surveillance.

United States Excess Death excl COVID: Predicted: Single Excess Est: Massachusetts data was reported at 0.000 Number in 16 Sep 2023. This stayed constant from the previous number of 0.000 Number for 09 Sep 2023. United States Excess Death excl COVID: Predicted: Single Excess Est: Massachusetts data is updated weekly, averaging 0.000 Number from Jan 2017 (Median) to 16 Sep 2023, with 350 observations. The data reached an all-time high of 209.000 Number in 13 Jan 2018 and a record low of 0.000 Number in 16 Sep 2023. United States Excess Death excl COVID: Predicted: Single Excess Est: Massachusetts data remains active status in CEIC and is reported by Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. The data is categorized under Global Database’s United States – Table US.G012: Number of Excess Deaths: by States: All Causes excluding COVID-19: Predicted (Discontinued).

This is a daily updated dataset of COVID-19 deaths around the world. The dataset contains data of 45 countries. This data was collected from

• The New York Times
• The Economist

us-counties.csv contains data of the daily number of new cases and deaths, the seven-day rolling average and the seven-day rolling average per 100,000 residents of US at county level. The average reported is the seven day trailing average i.e. average of the day reported and six days prior.

all_weekly_excess_deaths.csv collates detailed weekly breakdowns from official sources around the world.

Image credits: Unsplash - schluditsch

Let's pray for the ones who lost their lives fighting the battle and for the ones who risk their lives against this virus 🙏

This dataset presents the latest data on excess mortality by week, for all OECD countries for which data are available. Please refer to the Methodological Note below for details on methods of calculation and caution regarding cross-country comparisons. Sources by country are available in a separate file in Excel format.

• Read the Methodological Note All-cause, Excess and COVID-19 deaths
• Access additional information on sources by country

WARNING: Reporting of the number of All-cause and COVID-19 deaths particularly for the most recent weeks may be only partial and subject to significant revision. The calculated values for excess deaths for the most recent weeks are therefore also subject to significant revision.

It is estimated that in December 2020, there were around 995,085 excess deaths associated with the COVID-19 pandemic from all causes. Cumulatively, it was estimated that there was a mean of around 14.9 million excess deaths due to the pandemic as of the end of 2021. This statistic shows the mean number of excess deaths associated with the COVID-19 pandemic from all-causes worldwide in 2020-2021, by month.

Mortality rate (%) based on COVID-19 tests and demographics for March 2020 to December 2020.

Predictors of death within 30 Days after COVID-19 test.

Background and aimWith the Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic continuing to impact healthcare systems around the world, healthcare providers are attempting to balance resources devoted to COVID-19 patients while minimizing excess mortality overall (both COVID-19 and non-COVID-19 patients). To this end, we conducted a systematic review (SR) to describe the effect of the COVID-19 pandemic on all-cause excess mortality (COVID-19 and non-COVID-19) during the pandemic timeframe compared to non-pandemic times.MethodsWe searched EMBASE, Cochrane Database of SRs, MEDLINE, Cumulative Index to Nursing and Allied Health Literature (CINAHL) and Cochrane Controlled Trials Register (CENTRAL), from inception (1948) to December 31, 2020. We used a two-stage review process to screen/extract data. We assessed risk of bias using Newcastle-Ottawa Scale (NOS). We used Critical Appraisal and Grading of Recommendations Assessment, Development and Evaluation (GRADE) methodology.ResultsOf 11,581 citations, 194 studies met eligibility. Of these studies, 31 had mortality comparisons (n = 433,196,345 participants). Compared to pre-pandemic times, during the COVID-19 pandemic, our meta-analysis demonstrated that COVID-19 mortality had an increased risk difference (RD) of 0.06% (95% CI: 0.06–0.06% p < 0.00001). All-cause mortality also increased [relative risk (RR): 1.53, 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.38–1.70, p < 0.00001] alongside non-COVID-19 mortality (RR: 1.18, 1.07–1.30, p < 0.00001). There was “very low” certainty of evidence through GRADE assessment for all outcomes studied, demonstrating the evidence as uncertain.InterpretationThe COVID-19 pandemic may have caused significant increases in all-cause excess mortality, greater than those accounted for by increases due to COVID-19 mortality alone, although the evidence is uncertain.Systematic review registration[https://www.crd.york.ac.uk/prospero/#recordDetails], identifier [CRD42020201256].

This study investigated the disparities between reported COVID-19 deaths and estimated excess mortality, shedding light on the impact of the pandemic. Additionally, it explores the pivotal role of international cooperation in responding to COVID-19, encompassing vaccine development, data sharing, research collaboration, and economic stabilisation.

United States Excess Death excl COVID: Predicted: Total Estimate: Florida data was reported at 20,737.000 Number in 16 Sep 2023. This stayed constant from the previous number of 20,737.000 Number for 09 Sep 2023. United States Excess Death excl COVID: Predicted: Total Estimate: Florida data is updated weekly, averaging 20,737.000 Number from Jan 2017 (Median) to 16 Sep 2023, with 350 observations. The data reached an all-time high of 20,737.000 Number in 16 Sep 2023 and a record low of 20,737.000 Number in 16 Sep 2023. United States Excess Death excl COVID: Predicted: Total Estimate: Florida data remains active status in CEIC and is reported by Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. The data is categorized under Global Database’s United States – Table US.G012: Number of Excess Deaths: by States: All Causes excluding COVID-19: Predicted (Discontinued).

United States Excess Death excl COVID: Predicted: Total Estimate: South Dakota data was reported at 600.000 Number in 16 Sep 2023. This stayed constant from the previous number of 600.000 Number for 09 Sep 2023. United States Excess Death excl COVID: Predicted: Total Estimate: South Dakota data is updated weekly, averaging 600.000 Number from Jan 2017 (Median) to 16 Sep 2023, with 350 observations. The data reached an all-time high of 600.000 Number in 16 Sep 2023 and a record low of 600.000 Number in 16 Sep 2023. United States Excess Death excl COVID: Predicted: Total Estimate: South Dakota data remains active status in CEIC and is reported by Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. The data is categorized under Global Database’s United States – Table US.G012: Number of Excess Deaths: by States: All Causes excluding COVID-19: Predicted (Discontinued).