Global Fuel Prices Database provides monthly retail fuel prices of regular gasoline (research octane number, RON, below 95), premium gasoline (RON of 95 or above), diesel, kerosene, LPG for automobiles, bottled LPG, heating oil, and HFO for the period between December 2015 and April 2025. The database relies on publicly available information. For countries that regulate fuel prices, the author manually collected monthly price announcements from the websites or social media of petroleum agencies, ministry of finance, ministry of energy, and statistical offices. In some cases, the data were sourced from local news articles publishing the government’s press releases on price adjustments. For countries with deregulated prices that conduct regular fuel price surveys, the author manually collected the published monthly average prices for the country and if available for several major cities in the country. | This dataset contains important information and resources. For comprehensive details, documentation, and inquiries, please contact data@worldbank.org. Additional metadata and related resources are available on this page.

The global fuel energy price index stood at 157.89 index points in September 2025, up from 100 in the base year 2016. Figures decreased that month due to a fall in natural gas prices. The fuel energy index includes prices for crude oil, natural gas, coal, and propane. Supply constraints across multiple commodities The global natural gas price index surged nearly 11-fold, and the global coal price index rose almost seven-fold from summer 2020 to summer 2022. This notable escalation was largely attributed to the Russia-Ukraine war, exerting increased pressure on the global supply chain. Tariffs bring economic uncertainty With the global economy having adjusted to the effects of the Russia-Ukraine war, new uncertainty has emerged due to tariffs imposed by the Trump administration. If these tariffs are fully implemented, global trade could be significantly disrupted, mainly the bilateral trade between the world’s two largest economies. In 2025, import tariffs between China and the United States exceeded 130 percent on both sides, while their tariffs on imports from the rest of the world were around 10 percent. U.S. tariffs on Chinese imported goods reached a high of 134.7 percent in April of that year, while China imposed a 147.6 percent tariff on U.S. goods. Early estimates indicate that the impact of Trump’s proposed tariffs on the U.S. economy could amount to 0.4 percent of GDP, mainly driven by the reduced trade with Mexico, Canada and China.

The average for 2016 based on 165 countries was 0.98 dollars. The highest value was in Eritrea: 2 dollars and the lowest value was in Venezuela: 0 dollars. The indicator is available from 1991 to 2016. Below is a chart for all countries where data are available.

Gasoline rose to 3.29 USD/Gal on March 27, 2026, up 4.97% from the previous day. Over the past month, Gasoline's price has risen 38.61%, and is up 47.04% compared to the same time last year, according to trading on a contract for difference (CFD) that tracks the benchmark market for this commodity. Gasoline - values, historical data, forecasts and news - updated on March of 2026.

Context

Due to geopolitical events, global demand, and economic conditions, fuel prices have fluctuated dramatically over time. This dataset helps users comprehend long term shifts in the energy sector by displaying fuel price patterns from 1970 to 2026. It can be applied to research, data analysis, and visualization. Students and data science learners investigiating past fuel price trends can benefit from the dataset.

Acknowledgement

As a valuable resource for analyzing and learning

This dataset provides monthly, quarterly and annual average regular or premium unleaded gasoline pump prices, taxes and ex-tax pump prices in Canada, USA, France, Germany, Britain and Japan, all converted to Canadian cents per litre. To view charts and current fuel price data you can also visit the motor fuel prices page. *[USA]: United States of America

All fuel prices experienced a decrease in prices between January and July 2025. For crude oil and coal, the price index was also lower than at the same time in the previous year. Overall, prices have been notably less volatile throughout 2024 and 2025 when compared to 2021 and 2022.

Crude oil benchmark prices, gasoline and diesel prices by country, historical price data, and forecasts.

Petrol/Gas prices worldwide. It contains world share of petrol consumption by country, price per gallon, price per litter and the corresponding price in Pakistan Rupee (Conversion Rate 1 USD = 211.5 PKR)

Hong Kong had the highest prices for premium gasoline (95-RON) on August 4, 2025. That day, prices averaged 3.58 U.S. dollars per liter, which was notably more than in any other country. While oil-rich countries enjoy some of the lowest gasoline prices, drivers in big car markets such as Europe pay around two U.S. dollars per liter.

🛢️ Global Fuel Prices Analysis & 2026 Forecasting (1970 - 2026) 🌍

This repository contains a comprehensive Exploratory Data Analysis (EDA) and Machine Learning forecasting project for global crude oil prices, spanning from 1970 and projecting into 2026. This project is ideal for data scientists, econometricians, and energy market analysts.

📊 Project Overview

The global fuel market is highly sensitive to geopolitical factors. Recently, geological and geopolitical situations (e.g., tensions between Iran, Israel, and the USA) have severely impacted supply chain stability.

This project dives into historical price movements, contextualizes them within global affairs, explores the influential role of OPEC, and applies state-of-the-art predictive modeling (XGBoost) to forecast future trends.

Key Features of this Repository:

• Historical Context & Geopolitical Analysis: Deep dive into the reasons behind major oil price fluctuations (1973 Oil Shock, 2008 Financial Crisis, COVID-19 drop, etc.).
• OPEC & Production Insights: Breakdown of top producers vs. high-demand consumers.
• Exploratory Data Analysis (EDA): Visualizations of 50+ years of crude oil price data.
• Machine Learning Forecasting:
  • Implementation of XGBoost Regressor with advanced time-series feature engineering (lags, rolling averages).
  • Iterative recursive forecasting predicting prices through 2026.
  • Integration of a simulated "geopolitical risk premium" into the 2026 forecast.

📁 Files in this Repository

• kaggle_fuel_prices_analysis.ipynb: The main Jupyter Notebook containing the full analysis, EDA, and predictive modeling code.
• fuel_prices_1970_2026.csv: The dataset utilized in this project, containing monthly crude oil prices (USD/barrel) from January 1970 to December 2024.

💾 Dataset Details

The dataset fuel_prices_1970_2026.csv consists of the following structure: - Date: Monthly frequency (YYYY-MM-DD), starting from 1970-01-01. - Crude_Oil_Price: Nominal crude oil price in USD per barrel.

Data Source Context: The core historical data aligns with the World Bank's Open Data initiatives (Commodity Price Data / The Pink Sheet).

🚀 Getting Started

To run the notebook locally:

1. Clone this repository to your local machine.
2. Ensure you have the following Python libraries installed: bash pip install pandas numpy matplotlib seaborn xgboost scikit-learn
3. Open kaggle_fuel_prices_analysis.ipynb in Jupyter Notebook or JupyterLab.
4. Run the cells sequentially to reproduce the analysis and forecasts.

📈 Model Performance

The XGBoost model, evaluated on a test set (2023-Present), demonstrates robust performance in capturing recent market trends, outperforming standard ARIMA models specifically in handling sudden, non-linear market shocks.

🔮 2026 Forecast Outlook

The model's trajectory for 2026 suggests that as long as instability remains within critical regions (like the Middle East), global supply chains will price in a continuous "Risk Premium." The forecast anticipates sustained high baselines with the potential for prices to surpass $90-$100 per barrel during acute flare-ups.

"description": "## ⛽ Global Petroleum Price Comparison During 2026 US-Iran War

Comprehensive dataset tracking the impact of the 2026 US-Iran military conflict on global petroleum prices. Covers 14 countries with before-war vs 7 March 2026 retail petrol prices, daily crude oil (Brent & WTI) tracking, a detailed war event timeline, country-level economic impact assessment, and a structured pros/cons analysis.

🔥 Context

Following US-Israeli strikes on Iran (28 Feb 2026), Iran closed the Strait of Hormuz — disrupting ~20% of global oil supply. Brent crude surged from ~$70 to over $104/barrel. Countries across South Asia, Middle East, Europe, and North America saw immediate fuel price increases.

📊 Five Datasets Included

1. petrol_prices_comparison.csv — 14 countries' retail petrol prices (local currency + USD)
2. crude_oil_daily.csv — Daily Brent & WTI prices (Feb-Mar 2026)
3. war_timeline.csv — 20 key events from Dec 2025 to Mar 2026
4. country_impact.csv — GDP impact, inflation risk, stock market changes for 17 countries
5. pros_cons_analysis.csv — 16 categorized pros & cons across Economy, Environment, Consumers, Developing Countries

🔗 Sources

Al Jazeera, The Guardian, TradingEconomics, GlobalPetrolPrices, IMF, Goldman Sachs, World Bank/ESMAP, Brookings, Wikipedia",

Saudi Arabia Fuel Prices: Retail: Gasoline 91 data was reported at 2.180 SAR/l in Mar 2026. This stayed constant from the previous number of 2.180 SAR/l for Feb 2026. Saudi Arabia Fuel Prices: Retail: Gasoline 91 data is updated monthly, averaging 2.180 SAR/l from Jul 2020 (Median) to Mar 2026, with 69 observations. The data reached an all-time high of 2.180 SAR/l in Mar 2026 and a record low of 1.290 SAR/l in Jul 2020. Saudi Arabia Fuel Prices: Retail: Gasoline 91 data remains active status in CEIC and is reported by Saudi Arabian Oil Company. The data is categorized under Global Database’s Saudi Arabia – Table SA.P: Fuel Prices. [COVID-19-IMPACT]

Across OECD countries, crude product prices account for the largest share of retail prices for motor fuels. In 2023, ** percent of the end consumer price was determined by crude prices. This compared to a ** percent share attributed to country-specific taxes. Among the listed countries, Italy saw the highest tax share, making up ** percent of pump prices there.

Gasoline Price: Value: Diesel data was reported at 1.810 CHF/l in Dec 2025. This records an increase from the previous number of 1.780 CHF/l for Nov 2025. Gasoline Price: Value: Diesel data is updated monthly, averaging 1.640 CHF/l from May 1993 (Median) to Dec 2025, with 392 observations. The data reached an all-time high of 2.370 CHF/l in Jul 2022 and a record low of 1.160 CHF/l in Mar 1999. Gasoline Price: Value: Diesel data remains active status in CEIC and is reported by Swiss Federal Statistical Office. The data is categorized under Global Database’s Switzerland – Table CH.P: Fuel Prices.

This dataset provides values for GASOLINE PRICES reported in several countries. The data includes current values, previous releases, historical highs and record lows, release frequency, reported unit and currency.

Weekly fuel prices for Euro 95 petrol and Diesel across all 27 EU member states. Updated 2026-02-23. EU average: Euro 95 €1.551/L, Diesel €1.545/L. Cheapest petrol: Bulgaria (€1.218). Most expensive: Netherlands (€2.062). Historical data from January 2005 to present. Source: European Commission Oil Bulletin.

Graph and download economic data for US Regular All Formulations Gas Price (GASREGW) from 1990-08-20 to 2026-03-23 about gas, commodities, and USA.

Pakistan: Gasoline prices at the pump, in dollars per liter: The latest value from 2016 is 0.79 dollars, a decline from 0.94 dollars in 2014. In comparison, the world average is 0.98 dollars, based on data from 165 countries. Historically, the average for Pakistan from 1995 to 2016 is 0.74 dollars. The minimum value, 0.46 dollars, was reached in 1998 while the maximum of 1.14 dollars was recorded in 2012.