Since the monthly counting of the Geopolitical Risk Index (GPR) started in 1985, the index peaked in ************, immediately after the 9/11 terrorist attack on the World Trade Center and Pentagon in the United States. The attack is perceived to be the deadliest terrorist attack in the 20th and 21st century, and ultimately caused the start of the so-called war on terror, with U.S. invasions of Afghanistan (2001) and Iraq (2003) following in the aftermath. Russia-Ukraine war The GPR was also high in ********** following Russia's invasion of Ukraine at the end of February that year. The attack on an independent state meant that the relations between Russia and the West reached a new low after the collapse of the Soviet Union, and several sanctions were imposed on Russia. 1991: a turbulent year Apart from the 9/11 attacks in 2001, the index reached its highest level in ************. This was a result of the ongoing Gulf War following Iraq's invasion of Kuwait, but also Soviet troops storming the Lithuanian capital in order to stop the country's secession from the Soviet Union. Additionally, a massacre of Tutsi in Rwanda highlighted the growing tensions in the East African country, which ultimately resulted in the genocide in 1994.

Key information about Australia Geopolitical Risk Index

• Australia Geopolitical Risk Index was reported at 0.165 % in Feb 2025.
• This records an increase from the previous number of 0.082 % for Jan 2025.
• Australia Geopolitical Risk Index data is updated monthly, averaging 0.069 % from Jan 1985 to Feb 2025, with 482 observations.
• The data reached an all-time high of 0.515 % in Mar 2022 and a record low of 0.005 % in Feb 1989.
• Australia Geopolitical Risk Index data remains active status in CEIC and is reported by Dario Caldara and Matteo Iacoviello.
• The data is categorized under World Trend Plus’s Geopolitical Risk Index – Table: Geopolitical Risk Index: By Country.

Key information about Argentina Geopolitical Risk Index

• Argentina Geopolitical Risk Index was reported at 0.045 % in Feb 2025.
• This records an increase from the previous number of 0.031 % for Jan 2025.
• Argentina Geopolitical Risk Index data is updated monthly, averaging 0.025 % from Jan 1985 to Feb 2025, with 482 observations.
• The data reached an all-time high of 0.263 % in Nov 2018 and a record low of 0.000 % in Sep 2021.
• Argentina Geopolitical Risk Index data remains active status in CEIC and is reported by Dario Caldara and Matteo Iacoviello.
• The data is categorized under World Trend Plus’s Geopolitical Risk Index – Table: Geopolitical Risk Index: By Country.

The Compass Series of Indexes is comprised of three unique and complementary Indexes that gauge the extent of global political, macroeconomic, and geopolitical risk: A Military Conflict Risk Index in five key geopolitical conflict regions, a Cold War Two Index in Russia, the US, and China, and a Polarization Risk Index in the G7 economies. Collectively, they provide investors, policymakers, and other decision makers with otherwise unavailable and comprehensive datafeeds that allow them to confirm and refute hypotheses and confidently navigate these risks.

The Cold War Index The Cold War II Index tracks – in Russia, the US, and China – six public sentiment indicators related to the geopolitical conflict and five current and future economic conditions indicators. The Index runs 24/7 and, unlike typical polls in these countries, draws on broad-based, anonymous, non-incented opinion.

The Military Conflict Risk Index The Military Conflict Risk Index measures, on a continuous, real-time basis, the perceptions of military conflict intensification from citizens in five major geopolitical conflicts: Russia-Ukraine, China-Taiwan, India-Pakistan, Iran-Israel, and South Korea-North Korea.

The Polarization Risk Index The Polarization Risk Index measures, on a quarterly basis, polarization within each G7 country as a key indicator of political stability. The Index uniquely draws on broad-based, anonymous opinion, minimizing biases associated with conventional polling.

United States Retail Sales Nowcast: sa: YoY: Contribution: Business Cycle Indicators: Geopolitical Risk Index data was reported at 0.195 % in 12 May 2025. This stayed constant from the previous number of 0.195 % for 05 May 2025. United States Retail Sales Nowcast: sa: YoY: Contribution: Business Cycle Indicators: Geopolitical Risk Index data is updated weekly, averaging 0.015 % from Feb 2020 (Median) to 12 May 2025, with 274 observations. The data reached an all-time high of 5.703 % in 17 Apr 2023 and a record low of 0.000 % in 14 Apr 2025. United States Retail Sales Nowcast: sa: YoY: Contribution: Business Cycle Indicators: Geopolitical Risk Index data remains active status in CEIC and is reported by CEIC Data. The data is categorized under Global Database’s United States – Table US.CEIC.NC: CEIC Nowcast: Retail Sales.

United States Unemployment Rate Nowcast: sa: Contribution: Business Cycle Indicator: Geopolitical Risk Index data was reported at 0.000 % in 12 May 2025. This stayed constant from the previous number of 0.000 % for 05 May 2025. United States Unemployment Rate Nowcast: sa: Contribution: Business Cycle Indicator: Geopolitical Risk Index data is updated weekly, averaging 0.047 % from Jan 2020 (Median) to 12 May 2025, with 279 observations. The data reached an all-time high of 12.178 % in 06 Jan 2025 and a record low of 0.000 % in 12 May 2025. United States Unemployment Rate Nowcast: sa: Contribution: Business Cycle Indicator: Geopolitical Risk Index data remains active status in CEIC and is reported by CEIC Data. The data is categorized under Global Database’s United States – Table US.CEIC.NC: CEIC Nowcast: Unemployment Rate.

Graph and download economic data for Global Economic Policy Uncertainty Index: Current Price Adjusted GDP (GEPUCURRENT) from Jan 1997 to Apr 2025 about uncertainty, adjusted, GDP, indexes, and price.

NARDL estimation results for the effect of domestic (country-specific) GPR and US GPR on stock market returns and volatility.

The average for 2023 based on 193 countries was -0.07 points. The highest value was in Liechtenstein: 1.61 points and the lowest value was in Syria: -2.75 points. The indicator is available from 1996 to 2023. Below is a chart for all countries where data are available.

Graph and download economic data for Economic Policy Uncertainty Index for United States (USEPUINDXD) from 1985-01-01 to 2025-07-03 about uncertainty, academic data, indexes, and USA.

The Budapest SE index is predicted to rise in the near term, with potential risks stemming from global economic uncertainty, geopolitical tensions, and domestic political developments. While the index has the potential for significant growth, it is important to be aware of these risks and consider appropriate investment strategies accordingly.

The global commodity index funds market is experiencing robust growth, driven by increasing investor interest in diversification and hedging against inflation. The market, currently estimated at $500 billion in 2025, is projected to achieve a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 12% from 2025 to 2033, reaching approximately $1.6 trillion by 2033. Several factors contribute to this expansion. Firstly, rising inflation globally is pushing investors towards alternative assets like commodities, offering a potential inflation hedge. Secondly, growing awareness of commodity market volatility and the need for sophisticated investment strategies is driving demand for professionally managed commodity index funds. Thirdly, the increasing sophistication of index fund structures, allowing access to diverse commodity baskets, is attracting both institutional and retail investors. The segments within this market show varying growth trajectories. Precious metal index funds remain a significant portion, while agricultural and energy index funds are experiencing faster growth, fueled by concerns about food security and the transition to renewable energy. Geographic distribution reveals strong growth in Asia-Pacific regions, driven primarily by China and India's expanding economies and increased participation in global commodity markets. North America continues to be a major market, while Europe demonstrates steady growth alongside the Middle East and Africa. Competitive dynamics are shaped by a mix of established players like BlackRock, Invesco, and iShares, and niche players specializing in particular commodity sectors. The market faces challenges, including inherent commodity price volatility, regulatory complexities across different regions, and potential geopolitical risks impacting commodity supply chains. Despite these restraints, the long-term outlook for commodity index funds remains positive, fueled by sustained investor demand for diversified portfolios, inflation hedging strategies, and access to complex commodity markets through easily accessible and managed investment vehicles. This necessitates continuous innovation in fund design, risk management strategies, and accessibility to cater to the evolving needs of a growing investor base.

Predictions for the Dow Jones index suggest a continuation of the current bullish trend, with potential for further gains in the near term. However, risks remain, particularly related to global economic headwinds and geopolitical uncertainty. The Shanghai index is expected to remain volatile, with potential for both short-term upswings and downturns due to ongoing concerns over China's economic outlook and regulatory risks.

Dow Jones North America Select Junior Oil index is anticipated to experience moderate to high volatility in the near term. Potential factors influencing the index include global economic growth, geopolitical tensions, crude oil demand and supply dynamics, changes in interest rates, and market sentiment. Key risks associated with these predictions include geopolitical risks, economic downturn, supply chain disruptions, and unexpected changes in oil prices.

Unemployment Rate Nowcast：SA：贡献：Business Cycle Indicator：地缘政治风险指数在05-12-2025达0.000%，相较于05-05-2025的0.000%保持不变。Unemployment Rate Nowcast：SA：贡献：Business Cycle Indicator：地缘政治风险指数数据按周更新，01-13-2020至05-12-2025期间平均值为0.047%，共279份观测结果。该数据的历史最高值出现于01-06-2025，达12.178%，而历史最低值则出现于05-12-2025，为0.000%。CEIC提供的Unemployment Rate Nowcast：SA：贡献：Business Cycle Indicator：地缘政治风险指数数据处于定期更新的状态，数据来源于CEIC Data，数据归类于全球数据库的美国 – Table US.CEIC.NC: CEIC Nowcast: Unemployment Rate。

Predictions for Dow Jones index remain positive with moderate risks. Market analysts anticipate continued growth driven by robust corporate earnings and positive economic indicators. However, potential risks include global economic uncertainties, rising inflation, and geopolitical tensions.

WIG20 index is forecasted to exhibit significant volatility and potential risks. The index may experience sharp declines in the near term due to global economic headwinds and geopolitical uncertainty. However, in the long term, it has the potential to recover as the Polish economy recovers and corporate earnings improve. Investors considering exposure to the index should be aware of the elevated risks, conduct thorough due diligence, and consider employing hedging strategies to mitigate potential losses.

The Tadawul All-Share index is expected to continue its upward trend in the coming weeks, driven by positive economic data and expectations of further government support. However, there are some risks to this outlook, including the possibility of further geopolitical tensions in the region and a potential slowdown in global economic growth. Investors should be aware of these risks and consider diversifying their portfolios accordingly.

Explore the intricacies of the methanol price index, a vital tool for tracking price changes and market trends in methanol. Understand how factors like supply dynamics and geopolitical developments influence the index, and learn how it aids in strategic planning, risk management, and investment evaluation.

The TA 35 index is expected to exhibit moderate growth in the near term. Positive factors include improving economic conditions, supportive monetary policy, and strong corporate earnings. However, risks to the outlook include geopolitical uncertainties, rising interest rates, and global economic headwinds. Overall, the index remains vulnerable to short-term fluctuations, but the long-term outlook remains positive.