The International Energy Agency expects worldwide oil demand to increase by some 1.1 million barrels per day in 2025. This estimate from February 2025 is lower than expectations by the EIA and the OPEC.

The global demand for crude oil (including biofuels) in 2024 amounted to 103.75 million barrels per day. The source expects economic activity and related oil demand to pick up by the end of the year, with forecast suggesting it could increase to more than 105 million barrels per day. Motor fuels make up majority of oil demand Oil is an important and versatile substance, used in different ways and in different forms for many applications. The road sector is the largest oil consuming sector worldwide. It accounts for nearly one half of the global demand for oil, largely due to reliance on motor spirits made from petroleum. The OPEC projects global oil product demand to reach 120 million barrels per day by 2050, with transportation fuels such as gasoline and diesel expected to remain the most consumed products. Diesel and gasoil demand is forecast to amount to 32.5 million barrels per day in 2050, up from 29 million barrels in 2023. Gasoline demand is forecast at 27 million barrels by 2050. Differences in forecast oil demand widen between major energy institutions Despite oil producing bodies such as the OPEC seeing continued importance for crude oil in the future, other forecast centers have been more moderate in their demand outlooks. For example, between the EIA, IEA, and OPEC, the latter was the only one to expect significant growth for oil demand until 2030.

While major energy institutions IEA, OPEC, and EIA used to have little differences in their long-term growth projections for the oil market, their demand outlooks have become more divergent in recent years. In its 2024 outlook, OPEC expected global oil demand to increase to more than 113 million barrels per day by 2030. In comparison, the IEA's stated policies scenario (STEPS) from 2024 sees oil demand coming to merely 101.7 million barrels per day by 2030. A figure that was similar to the EIA's latest outlook.

Diesel and gasoil account for the highest oil products demand share in the world. In 2023, these products made up some 28.38 percent of total oil demand. This figure is expected to decrease slightly by 2050, with jet fuel and kerosene expected to see the greatest increase in demand shares. Daily global crude oil demand is expected to climb over 100 million barrels in 2023.

OPEC revises its 2025 oil demand growth forecast down by 150,000 bpd due to trade tariffs and economic uncertainties, yet remains optimistic compared to industry expectations.

Key information about United States Oil Consumption

• United States Oil Consumption was reported at 18,983.557 Barrel/Day th in Dec 2023
• This records an increase from the previous number of 18,862.210 Barrel/Day th for Dec 2022
• US Oil Consumption data is updated yearly, averaging 17,634.400 Barrel/Day th from Dec 1965 to 2023, with 59 observations
• The data reached an all-time high of 20,531.482 Barrel/Day th in 2005 and a record low of 11,512.436 Barrel/Day th in 1965
• US Oil Consumption data remains active status in CEIC and is reported by BP PLC
• The data is categorized under World Trend Plus’s Association: Energy Sector – Table RB.BP.OIL: Oil: Consumption

Oil Market Outlook

The global oil market size was valued at approximately $2.3 trillion in 2023 and is projected to reach around $3.1 trillion by 2032, exhibiting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 3.4%. The market is poised for this growth driven by increasing energy demands and technological advancements in extraction and refining processes. The ascent in urbanization and industrialization, particularly in emerging economies, is also catalyzing the expansion of the oil market. As the world continues to witness an upsurge in energy consumption, oil remains a pivotal component of the global energy mix, underscoring its enduring relevance and potential for growth in the coming years.

One of the primary growth factors for the oil market is the relentless global demand for energy, which is predominantly fueled by developing countries undergoing rapid industrialization and modernization. These nations are experiencing significant infrastructural development, leading to increased consumption of fossil fuels, including oil. Additionally, the expansion of the transportation sector, which is heavily reliant on oil, further propels market growth. The automotive industry, despite a shift towards electrification, still sees a significant proportion of its energy needs being met by oil products such as gasoline and diesel, thereby sustaining demand.

Technological advancements in extraction and refining processes are also key drivers of growth in the oil market. The advent of improved drilling techniques, such as horizontal drilling and hydraulic fracturing, has made it economically viable to tap into previously inaccessible oil reserves. This has significantly boosted the supply side of the market, leading to an increase in production levels. Moreover, innovations in refining processes have enhanced the efficiency and yield of refining operations, resulting in higher output of refined oil products. These technological improvements not only bolster supply but also help reduce the environmental impact of oil extraction and processing activities.

Furthermore, the global geopolitical landscape plays a crucial role in shaping the oil market. Political stability in key oil-producing regions can significantly influence supply chains and pricing structures. For instance, the Middle East, which holds a substantial portion of the world's oil reserves, is often affected by geopolitical tensions that can lead to fluctuations in supply and prices. Additionally, policies and regulations set forth by major economies regarding fossil fuel consumption and emissions standards can either facilitate market expansion or pose challenges to it. Thus, ongoing geopolitical developments and regulatory changes are critical factors affecting the oil market's trajectory.

The integration of Oil and Gas sectors is increasingly becoming a focal point in the global energy landscape. As oil remains a dominant energy source, the synergy between oil and gas industries can lead to enhanced efficiency and innovation. This integration allows for the sharing of technological advancements, such as improved drilling techniques and refining processes, which can be applied across both sectors to optimize resource extraction and processing. Furthermore, the collaboration between oil and gas companies can facilitate the development of comprehensive energy solutions that address both current demands and future sustainability goals. By leveraging their combined expertise, these industries can better navigate the challenges of fluctuating market conditions and regulatory pressures, ultimately contributing to a more resilient and adaptable energy sector.

Regionally, the Asia Pacific region is expected to witness robust growth in the oil market, primarily due to the soaring energy demands of populous countries like China and India. These nations are experiencing rapid economic growth, leading to increased consumption of oil for industrial and transportation purposes. North America, on the other hand, is characterized by technological innovations in oil extraction and production, positioning it as a significant player in the global market. The Middle East & Africa region remains a major supplier of oil, with vast reserves and strategic geopolitical positioning. Europe and Latin America, while also integral to the market, are increasingly turning towards alternative energy sources, which may moderate their growth rates compared to other regions.

Type Analysis

The oil market is segmented into several

1. Global oil demand, supply, oil market balance and required amounts of OPEC crude.

OPEC reduces its 2024 oil demand growth forecast by 210,000 barrels per day, signaling shifts in global market dynamics.

OECD Americas is the region with the greatest oil demand, followed by China. In 2023, daily oil demand in the OECD Americas amounted to 25 million barrels. This figure is set to decrease to 21.5 million barrels by 2050, although it would remain the largest oil consuming region. India is forecast to see the greatest growth in daily oil demand, with figures expected to double by 2050.

As per Cognitive Market Research's latest published report, the Global Oil Exploration and Production market size is $3,588.98 Million in 2024 and it is forecasted to reach $5,116.57 Billion by 2031. Oil Exploration and Production Industry's Compound Annual Growth Rate will be 5.20% from 2024 to 2031. Market Dynamics of the Oil Exploration and Production Market

Market Driver for the Oil Exploration and Production Market

The increasing investment in oil sector by several government bodies worldwide elevates the market growth 

Many countries view a stable and secure energy supply as crucial for their economic development and national security. Investing in the oil sector helps ensure a reliable source of energy. Oil exploration and production contribute significantly to the economic growth of a country. Governments often invest in the oil sector to capitalize on the potential for high returns, which can be used to fund public services, infrastructure projects, and other essential programs. Despite efforts to transition to renewable energy sources, the global demand for oil remains high. Governments recognize the need to meet this demand and ensure a stable energy supply to support industrial processes, transportation, and other key sectors. The oil and gas industry encompasses activities linked to exploration, including the search for hydrocarbons, identification of high-potential areas for oil and gas extraction, test drilling, the construction of wells, and initial extraction. According to the Center on Global Energy Policy, data 2023, the 2021–22 period of high oil and gas prices did not lead to a significant increase in capital spending by private companies despite record profits. One exception has been upstream exploration and production (E&P) companies, whose capital spending in 2022 was the highest since 2014.   According to the International Labor Organization (ILO), data 2022, the oil and gas industry makes a significant contribution to the global economy and to its growth and development worldwide. The oil industry alone accounts for almost 3 per cent of global domestic product. The trade in crude oil reached US$640 billion in 2020, making it one of the world’s most traded commodities. Additionally, the industry is highly capital-intensive. Globally investments in oil and gas supply reached more than US$511 billion in 2020. According to the oil and gas industry outlook, data 2023, rapid recovery in demand, and geopolitical developments have driven oil prices to 2014 highs and upstream cash flows to record levels. In 2022, the global upstream industry is projected to generate its highest-ever free cash flows of $1.4 trillion at an assumed average Brent oil price of $106/bbl. Until now, the industry has practiced capital discipline and focused on cash flow generation and pay-out—2022 year-to-date average O&G production is up by 4.5% over the same period last year, while 2022 free cash flows per barrel of production is projected to be higher by nearly 70% over 2021. In addition, high commodity prices and growing concerns over energy security are creating urgency for many to diversify supply and accelerate the energy transition. As a result, clean energy investment by Oil &Gas companies has risen by an average of 12% each year since 2020 and is expected to account for an estimated 5% of total Oil & Gas capex spending in 2022, up from less than 2% in 2020.Therefore, investments made over recent decades enabled the United States to become a world leader in oil and natural gas production. Thus, owing to increased oil production, the demand for oil exploration and production has surged during the past few years.

The rising demand for oil across both commercial and residential sector is expected to drive the market growth 

Oil remains a primary source of energy for transportation, including cars, trucks, ships, and airplanes. The growing global population, urbanization, and increased industrial activity contribute to a rise in the number of vehicles and the overall demand for transportation fuels derived from oil, such as gasoline and diesel. Many industrial processes rely on oil and its by-products as energy sources and raw materials. Industries such as manufacturing, petrochemicals, and construction utilize oil-based products for various applications, including heating, power generation, and the production of pl...

Crude Oil Market Outlook

As of 2023, the global crude oil market size was valued at approximately USD 1.3 trillion, and it is expected to reach USD 1.7 trillion by 2032, growing at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 3.0% during the forecast period. The growth of this market is fueled by increasing demand in various industrial applications, coupled with advancements in extraction technologies that have made previously unrecoverable reserves accessible. Furthermore, the ongoing industrialization in emerging economies and the rising global energy demand are significant factors contributing to the market expansion. These factors are expected to consistently drive the crude oil market over the coming decade, despite growing environmental concerns and the push for renewable energy sources.

The primary growth factor for the crude oil market is the expanding global transportation sector, which remains heavily reliant on fossil fuels. As both personal and commercial transportation increases, so does the demand for crude oil, as it is the primary raw material for the production of fuels like gasoline, diesel, and aviation fuel. This is particularly evident in regions with burgeoning automotive markets and aviation sectors, where there is a continuous need to meet the energy requirements. Moreover, the development of infrastructure in developing countries is further bolstering the consumption of crude oil, especially in sectors such as road and air transport, which are pivotal to economic progress.

Another significant factor contributing to the growth of the crude oil market is its broad application base across various industrial sectors. Crude oil is not only a vital energy source but also a critical input for numerous petrochemical products, which are integral to industries such as plastics, pharmaceuticals, and chemicals. The industrial demand for crude oil is expected to remain robust as these sectors continue to expand, driven by technological innovations and a growing global population. Additionally, the power generation sector still relies on crude oil, albeit to a lesser extent, maintaining a steady demand alongside the increasing share of renewable energy sources.

Technological advancements in extraction techniques like hydraulic fracturing and horizontal drilling have unlocked new reserves, contributing significantly to supply-side growth. These technologies have made it economically viable to extract oil from unconventional sources such as shale formations and deep-sea reserves. This has not only increased the global supply of crude oil but also enhanced the competitiveness of oil-producing countries, particularly the United States, which has emerged as a major player in the global market. As technology continues to evolve, it is expected to further streamline production processes, reduce costs, and open up new areas for exploration.

Regionally, the Asia Pacific region is projected to witness the highest growth in the crude oil market, driven by rapid industrialization and urbanization in countries like China and India. The region's demand for energy is skyrocketing, fueled by economic development and an increasing population. North America remains significant due to advancements in extraction technologies and substantial shale reserves. Meanwhile, the Middle East and Africa continue to hold strategic importance due to their vast conventional oil reserves. Europe and Latin America, while also important markets, are expected to grow at a more moderate pace as they balance energy needs with sustainability initiatives.

Type Analysis

The crude oil market is segmented by type into light, medium, and heavy crude oil. Light crude oil is highly sought after due to its high yield of valuable products such as gasoline and diesel upon refining. It is generally preferred by refineries because of its lower sulfur content and ease of processing, resulting in lower overall production costs. The demand for light crude oil is expected to remain strong as refineries continue to upgrade and optimize their processes to produce cleaner fuels. Moreover, the development of new refining technologies may further enhance the processing efficiency of light crude, sustaining its demand in the market.

Medium crude oil, characterized by its balanced sulfur content and density, serves as a versatile feedstock for refineries across the globe. Although not as easily processed as light crude, medium crude oil provides a good yield of both light and heavy petroleum products. Its market demand is also driven by the flexibility it offers refineries in terms of product output. In regions wit

Learn about the major sectors that contribute to global oil consumption and their levels of consumption and dependency on oil. Discover how the transportation, industrial, residential and commercial, and electricity generation sectors drive global oil use and how factors such as economic growth and environmental regulations influence oil demand. Understand the potential impact of shifts towards cleaner energy sources on future oil consumption trends.

Key information about China Oil Consumption

• China Oil Consumption was reported at 16,576.537 Barrel/Day th in Dec 2023
• This records an increase from the previous number of 14,969.983 Barrel/Day th for Dec 2022
• China Oil Consumption data is updated yearly, averaging 2,965.072 Barrel/Day th from Dec 1965 to 2023, with 59 observations
• The data reached an all-time high of 16,576.537 Barrel/Day th in 2023 and a record low of 215.494 Barrel/Day th in 1965
• China Oil Consumption data remains active status in CEIC and is reported by BP PLC
• The data is categorized under World Trend Plus’s Association: Energy Sector – Table RB.BP.OIL: Oil: Consumption

The global crude oil market, valued at $3356.6 million in 2025, is projected to experience significant growth over the forecast period (2025-2033). While the precise CAGR is not provided, considering typical growth rates in the energy sector and recent market volatility, a conservative estimate of 2-4% CAGR seems plausible. This growth is fueled by several factors, including increasing global energy demand driven by industrialization and population growth in developing economies, particularly in Asia-Pacific. The transportation fuel segment remains the largest application area, consuming a substantial portion of global crude oil production. However, the petrochemical industry, utilizing crude oil derivatives like ethylene, butadiene, and benzene for plastics and other products, also contributes substantially to market demand. Furthermore, ongoing geopolitical events and evolving energy policies will continue to shape market dynamics, impacting prices and investment in upstream and downstream operations. Despite strong demand, the market faces several challenges. These include price volatility driven by geopolitical instability and supply disruptions, increasing pressure to transition to renewable energy sources, and concerns about the environmental impact of fossil fuels. The market is segmented by type (light distillates, light oils, medium oils, heavy fuel oil) and application (transportation fuel, petrochemicals including ethylene, acrylic, butadiene, benzene, toluene, and others). Major players such as Saudi Aramco, ExxonMobil, and BP dominate the market, leveraging their extensive production and refining capabilities. Regional distribution is geographically diverse, with North America, the Middle East & Africa, and Asia-Pacific representing significant consumption and production hubs. The competitive landscape is characterized by intense rivalry among major integrated oil companies and national oil companies. Strategic alliances, mergers, and acquisitions, and technological advancements will continue to reshape this dynamic and influential market.

The global light crude oil market is experiencing robust growth, driven by increasing global energy demand and the continued reliance on petroleum-based products across various sectors. While precise figures for market size and CAGR are not provided, we can extrapolate reasonable estimations based on industry trends. Considering the significant role light crude oil plays in the energy mix, and factoring in projected growth in transportation, industrial production, and agricultural activities, a conservative estimate would place the 2025 market size at approximately $500 billion USD. Assuming a moderate, yet sustainable, CAGR of 3% over the forecast period (2025-2033), the market is poised to surpass $700 billion USD by 2033. Key drivers include expanding economies, particularly in developing nations, which are experiencing rapid industrialization and urbanization, fueling energy consumption. The increasing adoption of light crude oil in diverse applications, like transportation (cars, trucks, and airplanes), mining operations (heavy machinery), and agriculture (fertilizers and pesticides), also contributes significantly to market growth. However, growing environmental concerns regarding carbon emissions and increasing government regulations aimed at promoting renewable energy sources represent key restraints. The market segmentation reveals the significance of the "Very Light Oils" type within the broader light crude oil sector, and the automotive industry as a dominant application segment. The competitive landscape includes both major international oil companies like Hess, ConocoPhillips, and BP, alongside national and regional players. Geographical distribution showcases North America as a key region, owing to its substantial oil reserves and production capacity. However, the Asia-Pacific region, particularly China and India, is expected to exhibit the highest growth rates due to burgeoning energy demand fueled by economic expansion and population growth. Europe, while mature in terms of oil consumption, continues to play a significant role, influenced by its established industrial base and transportation networks. Strategic alliances, technological advancements in extraction and refining, and the ongoing shift towards more sustainable energy practices will shape the market's evolution in the coming years, creating both opportunities and challenges for market participants. Fluctuations in global oil prices will remain a key factor impacting overall market performance. This in-depth report provides a comprehensive overview of the global light crude oil market, analyzing its current state, future trends, and key players. We delve into production, consumption patterns, pricing dynamics, and the impact of geopolitical factors. This report is essential for businesses involved in oil exploration, refining, transportation, and distribution, as well as investors seeking insights into this critical energy sector.

Discover how U.S. tariffs and economic growth slowdowns in China and India are expected to impact oil prices in 2025, with OPEC+ production plans playing a crucial role.

Snapshot img

The crude oil market has the potential to grow by 4781.60 million barrels during 2021-2025, and the market’s growth momentum will decelerate at a CAGR of 2.73%.

This crude oil market research report provides valuable insights on the post COVID-19 impact on the market, which will help companies evaluate their business approaches. Furthermore, this report extensively covers market segmentation by production area (onshore and offshore) and geography (APAC, North America, Europe, MEA, and South America). The report also offers information on several market vendors, including BP Plc, Chevron Corp., and ConocoPhillips Co., among others.

What will the Crude Oil Market Size be in 2021?

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Crude Oil Market: Key Drivers and Trends

Based on our research output, there has been a negative impact on the market growth during and post COVID-19 era. The increasing upstream investment is notably driving the crude oil market growth, although factors such as fluctuations in global crude oil prices may impede market growth. To unlock information on the key market drivers and the COVID-19 pandemic impact on the crude oil industry get your FREE report sample now.

      The rising energy demand across the world has prompted governments to explore untapped oil and gas resources in the upstream sector, using advanced technologies.
      The production of oil and natural gas is declining from many conventional oilfields. To overcome this issue, oil and gas operators are increasing investments in mature oil and gas fields.
      The adoption of unconventional exploration and production technologies in large shale deposits has widened opportunities for upstream oil and gas companies.
      The growing investments in the upstream oil and gas sector will significantly influence crude oil market growth over the forecast period.




      Technological development in the hydraulic fracturing process is aiding in the exploration and production of oil and gas from shale plays.
      The advances in the drilling technology and proppant placement in downhole wells increased hydrocarbon recovery from unconventional wells.
      Technological advances such as integration of the internet of things (IoT) for data acquisition, as well as the use of data analytics and machine learning, supports the efficiency of tools that is one of the key crude oil market trends.
      Real-time pressure data is crucial in crude oil production as it eliminates the over-fracturing issue.
      Automation of hydraulic fracturing optimizes the hydraulic fracturing method using algorithmic controls and supports enhanced well performance.

This crude oil market analysis report also provides detailed information on other upcoming trends and challenges that will have a far-reaching effect on the market growth. Get detailed insights on the trends and challenges, which will help companies evaluate and develop growth strategies.

Who are the Major Crude Oil Market Vendors?

The report analyzes the market’s competitive landscape and offers information on several market vendors, including:

BP Plc
Chevron Corp.
ConocoPhillips Co.
Exxon Mobil Corp.
PetroChina Co. Ltd.
Petroleo Brasileiro SA
Qatar Petroleum
Rosneft Oil Co.
Royal Dutch Shell Plc
Saudi Arabian Oil Co.

The crude oil market is fragmented and the vendors are deploying various organic and inorganic growth strategies to compete in the market. Click here to uncover other successful business strategies deployed by the vendors.

To make the most of the opportunities and recover from post COVID-19 impact, market vendors should focus more on the growth prospects in the fast-growing segments, while maintaining their positions in the slow-growing segments.

Download a free sample of the crude oil market forecast report for insights on complete key vendor profiles. The profiles include information on the production, sustainability, and prospects of the leading companies.

Which are the Key Regions for Crude Oil Market?

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44% of the market’s growth will originate from APAC during the forecast period. China, India, and Japan are the key markets for crude oil in APAC. Market growth in this region will be faster than the growth of the market in Europe, North America, and South America.

To garner further competitive intelligence and regional opportunities in store for vendors, view our sample report.

What are the Revenue-generating Production Area Segments in the Crude Oil Market?

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The crude oil market share growth by the onshore segment will be significant during the forecast period. In onshore exploration and pr

Discover the implications of China's economic policy shift on oil prices and crude trade, examining modest growth in global demand and China's significant role in the oil market landscape.

Explore the potential 2024 global oil market oversupply, driven by OPEC+ output hikes and non-OPEC supply growth, amid modest demand increases predicted by the IEA.