By 2029, global oil demand is forecast to reach 112.3 million barrels per day. China is expected to account for 18.4 million barrels of daily oil demand while India is expected to account for 6.9 million barrels worth.

While major energy institutions IEA, OPEC, and EIA used to have little differences in their long-term growth projections for the oil market, their demand outlooks have become more divergent in recent years. In its 2024 outlook, OPEC expected global oil demand to increase to more than 113 million barrels per day by 2030. In comparison, the IEA's stated policies scenario (STEPS) from 2024 sees oil demand coming to merely 101.7 million barrels per day by 2030. A figure that was similar to the EIA's latest outlook.

OECD Americas is the region with the greatest oil demand, followed by China. In 2023, daily oil demand in the OECD Americas amounted to 25 million barrels. This figure is set to decrease to 21.5 million barrels by 2050, although it would remain the largest oil consuming region. India is forecast to see the greatest growth in daily oil demand, with figures expected to double by 2050.

Diesel and gasoil account for the highest oil products demand share in the world. In 2023, these products made up some 28.38 percent of total oil demand. This figure is expected to decrease slightly by 2050, with jet fuel and kerosene expected to see the greatest increase in demand shares. Daily global crude oil demand is expected to climb over 100 million barrels in 2023.

1. Global oil demand, supply, oil market balance and required amounts of OPEC crude.

Oil Market Outlook

The global oil market size was valued at approximately $2.3 trillion in 2023 and is projected to reach around $3.1 trillion by 2032, exhibiting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 3.4%. The market is poised for this growth driven by increasing energy demands and technological advancements in extraction and refining processes. The ascent in urbanization and industrialization, particularly in emerging economies, is also catalyzing the expansion of the oil market. As the world continues to witness an upsurge in energy consumption, oil remains a pivotal component of the global energy mix, underscoring its enduring relevance and potential for growth in the coming years.

One of the primary growth factors for the oil market is the relentless global demand for energy, which is predominantly fueled by developing countries undergoing rapid industrialization and modernization. These nations are experiencing significant infrastructural development, leading to increased consumption of fossil fuels, including oil. Additionally, the expansion of the transportation sector, which is heavily reliant on oil, further propels market growth. The automotive industry, despite a shift towards electrification, still sees a significant proportion of its energy needs being met by oil products such as gasoline and diesel, thereby sustaining demand.

Technological advancements in extraction and refining processes are also key drivers of growth in the oil market. The advent of improved drilling techniques, such as horizontal drilling and hydraulic fracturing, has made it economically viable to tap into previously inaccessible oil reserves. This has significantly boosted the supply side of the market, leading to an increase in production levels. Moreover, innovations in refining processes have enhanced the efficiency and yield of refining operations, resulting in higher output of refined oil products. These technological improvements not only bolster supply but also help reduce the environmental impact of oil extraction and processing activities.

Furthermore, the global geopolitical landscape plays a crucial role in shaping the oil market. Political stability in key oil-producing regions can significantly influence supply chains and pricing structures. For instance, the Middle East, which holds a substantial portion of the world's oil reserves, is often affected by geopolitical tensions that can lead to fluctuations in supply and prices. Additionally, policies and regulations set forth by major economies regarding fossil fuel consumption and emissions standards can either facilitate market expansion or pose challenges to it. Thus, ongoing geopolitical developments and regulatory changes are critical factors affecting the oil market's trajectory.

The integration of Oil and Gas sectors is increasingly becoming a focal point in the global energy landscape. As oil remains a dominant energy source, the synergy between oil and gas industries can lead to enhanced efficiency and innovation. This integration allows for the sharing of technological advancements, such as improved drilling techniques and refining processes, which can be applied across both sectors to optimize resource extraction and processing. Furthermore, the collaboration between oil and gas companies can facilitate the development of comprehensive energy solutions that address both current demands and future sustainability goals. By leveraging their combined expertise, these industries can better navigate the challenges of fluctuating market conditions and regulatory pressures, ultimately contributing to a more resilient and adaptable energy sector.

Regionally, the Asia Pacific region is expected to witness robust growth in the oil market, primarily due to the soaring energy demands of populous countries like China and India. These nations are experiencing rapid economic growth, leading to increased consumption of oil for industrial and transportation purposes. North America, on the other hand, is characterized by technological innovations in oil extraction and production, positioning it as a significant player in the global market. The Middle East & Africa region remains a major supplier of oil, with vast reserves and strategic geopolitical positioning. Europe and Latin America, while also integral to the market, are increasingly turning towards alternative energy sources, which may moderate their growth rates compared to other regions.

Type Analysis

The oil market is segmented into several

The International Energy Agency expects worldwide oil demand to increase by some 1.1 million barrels per day in 2025. This estimate from February 2025 is lower than expectations by the EIA and the OPEC.

The global demand for crude oil (including biofuels) in 2024 amounted to 103.75 million barrels per day. The source expects economic activity and related oil demand to pick up by the end of the year, with forecast suggesting it could increase to more than 105 million barrels per day. Motor fuels make up majority of oil demand Oil is an important and versatile substance, used in different ways and in different forms for many applications. The road sector is the largest oil consuming sector worldwide. It accounts for nearly one half of the global demand for oil, largely due to reliance on motor spirits made from petroleum. The OPEC projects global oil product demand to reach 120 million barrels per day by 2050, with transportation fuels such as gasoline and diesel expected to remain the most consumed products. Diesel and gasoil demand is forecast to amount to 32.5 million barrels per day in 2050, up from 29 million barrels in 2023. Gasoline demand is forecast at 27 million barrels by 2050. Differences in forecast oil demand widen between major energy institutions Despite oil producing bodies such as the OPEC seeing continued importance for crude oil in the future, other forecast centers have been more moderate in their demand outlooks. For example, between the EIA, IEA, and OPEC, the latter was the only one to expect significant growth for oil demand until 2030.

OPEC reduces its 2024 oil demand growth forecast by 210,000 barrels per day, signaling shifts in global market dynamics.

Diesel and gasoil are the most in-demand oil products worldwide. In 2023, diesel and gasoil demand reached 29 million barrels per day. This was closely followed by gasoline.By 2040, gasoline demand is forecast to climb to nearly 30 million barrels per day compared with 32.2 millio barrels for diesel and gasoil. The use of petroleum products in daily life Crude oil serves as a feedstock for a great variety of industrial products. While transportation fuels such as gasoline and diesel are the most common examples used when referring to petroleum products, synthetic materials such as plastic packaging and many pharmaceutical drugs are also oil- and natural gas-based. In 2022, the global market value of petrochemicals stood at an estimated 584.5 billion U.S. dollars and was forecast to grow to over one trillion U.S. dollars by 2030. In a world where convenience often trumps the more environmentally friendly choice, petroleum products, particularly of the non-heavy variety, are expected to continue being in high demand. Oil demand shaped by economic activity As oil use is so widespread, changes in oil demand are usually an indication of developments in the wider economy, in particular changes to GDP growth as was the case in 2020. In the last two years, global liquid fuels consumption generally increased alongside economic activity and is expected to reach 104.7 million barrels per day by mid-2025.

As per Cognitive Market Research's latest published report, the Global Oil Exploration and Production market size is $3,588.98 Million in 2024 and it is forecasted to reach $5,116.57 Billion by 2031. Oil Exploration and Production Industry's Compound Annual Growth Rate will be 5.20% from 2024 to 2031. Market Dynamics of the Oil Exploration and Production Market

Market Driver for the Oil Exploration and Production Market

The increasing investment in oil sector by several government bodies worldwide elevates the market growth 

Many countries view a stable and secure energy supply as crucial for their economic development and national security. Investing in the oil sector helps ensure a reliable source of energy. Oil exploration and production contribute significantly to the economic growth of a country. Governments often invest in the oil sector to capitalize on the potential for high returns, which can be used to fund public services, infrastructure projects, and other essential programs. Despite efforts to transition to renewable energy sources, the global demand for oil remains high. Governments recognize the need to meet this demand and ensure a stable energy supply to support industrial processes, transportation, and other key sectors. The oil and gas industry encompasses activities linked to exploration, including the search for hydrocarbons, identification of high-potential areas for oil and gas extraction, test drilling, the construction of wells, and initial extraction. According to the Center on Global Energy Policy, data 2023, the 2021–22 period of high oil and gas prices did not lead to a significant increase in capital spending by private companies despite record profits. One exception has been upstream exploration and production (E&P) companies, whose capital spending in 2022 was the highest since 2014.   According to the International Labor Organization (ILO), data 2022, the oil and gas industry makes a significant contribution to the global economy and to its growth and development worldwide. The oil industry alone accounts for almost 3 per cent of global domestic product. The trade in crude oil reached US$640 billion in 2020, making it one of the world’s most traded commodities. Additionally, the industry is highly capital-intensive. Globally investments in oil and gas supply reached more than US$511 billion in 2020. According to the oil and gas industry outlook, data 2023, rapid recovery in demand, and geopolitical developments have driven oil prices to 2014 highs and upstream cash flows to record levels. In 2022, the global upstream industry is projected to generate its highest-ever free cash flows of $1.4 trillion at an assumed average Brent oil price of $106/bbl. Until now, the industry has practiced capital discipline and focused on cash flow generation and pay-out—2022 year-to-date average O&G production is up by 4.5% over the same period last year, while 2022 free cash flows per barrel of production is projected to be higher by nearly 70% over 2021. In addition, high commodity prices and growing concerns over energy security are creating urgency for many to diversify supply and accelerate the energy transition. As a result, clean energy investment by Oil &Gas companies has risen by an average of 12% each year since 2020 and is expected to account for an estimated 5% of total Oil & Gas capex spending in 2022, up from less than 2% in 2020.Therefore, investments made over recent decades enabled the United States to become a world leader in oil and natural gas production. Thus, owing to increased oil production, the demand for oil exploration and production has surged during the past few years.

The rising demand for oil across both commercial and residential sector is expected to drive the market growth 

Oil remains a primary source of energy for transportation, including cars, trucks, ships, and airplanes. The growing global population, urbanization, and increased industrial activity contribute to a rise in the number of vehicles and the overall demand for transportation fuels derived from oil, such as gasoline and diesel. Many industrial processes rely on oil and its by-products as energy sources and raw materials. Industries such as manufacturing, petrochemicals, and construction utilize oil-based products for various applications, including heating, power generation, and the production of pl...

The global crude oil market, valued at $3356.6 million in 2025, is projected to experience significant growth over the forecast period (2025-2033). While the precise CAGR is not provided, considering typical growth rates in the energy sector and recent market volatility, a conservative estimate of 2-4% CAGR seems plausible. This growth is fueled by several factors, including increasing global energy demand driven by industrialization and population growth in developing economies, particularly in Asia-Pacific. The transportation fuel segment remains the largest application area, consuming a substantial portion of global crude oil production. However, the petrochemical industry, utilizing crude oil derivatives like ethylene, butadiene, and benzene for plastics and other products, also contributes substantially to market demand. Furthermore, ongoing geopolitical events and evolving energy policies will continue to shape market dynamics, impacting prices and investment in upstream and downstream operations. Despite strong demand, the market faces several challenges. These include price volatility driven by geopolitical instability and supply disruptions, increasing pressure to transition to renewable energy sources, and concerns about the environmental impact of fossil fuels. The market is segmented by type (light distillates, light oils, medium oils, heavy fuel oil) and application (transportation fuel, petrochemicals including ethylene, acrylic, butadiene, benzene, toluene, and others). Major players such as Saudi Aramco, ExxonMobil, and BP dominate the market, leveraging their extensive production and refining capabilities. Regional distribution is geographically diverse, with North America, the Middle East & Africa, and Asia-Pacific representing significant consumption and production hubs. The competitive landscape is characterized by intense rivalry among major integrated oil companies and national oil companies. Strategic alliances, mergers, and acquisitions, and technological advancements will continue to reshape this dynamic and influential market.

Key information about United States Oil Consumption

• United States Oil Consumption was reported at 18,983.557 Barrel/Day th in Dec 2023
• This records an increase from the previous number of 18,862.210 Barrel/Day th for Dec 2022
• US Oil Consumption data is updated yearly, averaging 17,634.400 Barrel/Day th from Dec 1965 to 2023, with 59 observations
• The data reached an all-time high of 20,531.482 Barrel/Day th in 2005 and a record low of 11,512.436 Barrel/Day th in 1965
• US Oil Consumption data remains active status in CEIC and is reported by BP PLC
• The data is categorized under World Trend Plus’s Association: Energy Sector – Table RB.BP.OIL: Oil: Consumption

Light Crude Oil Market Outlook

The global light crude oil market size is projected to witness a significant growth from USD 150 billion in 2023 to approximately USD 225 billion by 2032, driven by a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 4.5%. This anticipated growth can be attributed to a variety of factors, including increasing demand for energy, advancements in extraction and refining technology, and the relatively lower emissions associated with light crude oil compared to heavier crude types. As global energy consumption continues to rise, particularly in emerging economies, light crude oil is expected to play a crucial role in meeting these energy needs due to its high efficiency and adaptability.

One of the principal growth factors of the light crude oil market is the surge in global energy demand, which is largely driven by industrialization and urbanization in developing countries. As these nations continue to expand their infrastructure and enhance their industrial capabilities, the need for energy sources that can be readily converted into various forms of fuel and other products increases. Light crude, with its lower sulfur content and higher yield of valuable products like gasoline and diesel, becomes an attractive option for meeting this demand efficiently. Furthermore, the flexibility of light crude oil in being processed into a variety of derivatives supports a wide range of industrial applications, further propelling its demand.

Technological advancements in drilling and extraction techniques have also significantly contributed to the growth of the light crude oil market. Innovations such as horizontal drilling and hydraulic fracturing have enabled the extraction of light crude from previously inaccessible or uneconomic reserves. These technologies have not only increased the supply of light crude oil but have also reduced the cost of production, thereby enhancing its competitiveness in the global energy market. The ability to tap into shale oil reserves, particularly in regions such as North America, has provided a substantial boost to the availability of light crude, supporting the market's expansion.

Another pivotal growth factor is the global shift towards cleaner energy sources. While renewable energy is gaining traction, the transition is gradual, and light crude oil serves as a relatively cleaner fossil fuel option due to its lower carbon emissions during combustion. This aligns with global efforts to reduce environmental impact while still satisfying the energy demands of modern economies. Moreover, regulatory frameworks in several countries favor the use of lighter crude variants over heavier ones, providing an additional impetus for market growth.

From a regional perspective, North America holds a significant position in the light crude oil market due to its abundant shale oil reserves and advanced extraction technologies. The region's market is expected to grow steadily, supported by innovations in technology and a favorable regulatory environment. Additionally, Asia Pacific is projected to witness robust growth owing to its rapidly expanding industrial base and increasing energy consumption. The Middle East & Africa region, rich in crude reserves, continues to be a critical supplier, while Europe focuses on refining capabilities and sustainable practices to meet its energy needs.

Type Analysis

The light crude oil market can be segmented by type into sweet light crude and sour light crude, each offering distinct characteristics that cater to various industrial needs. Sweet light crude is characterized by its low sulfur content, making it easier and less costly to refine. This variety is highly sought after in the market as it can be directly processed into valuable fuels like gasoline and diesel without requiring extensive desulfurization. Given the environmental regulations increasingly favoring fuels with lower sulfur content, sweet light crude becomes crucial in meeting compliance standards, thus driving its demand further.

Sour light crude, on the other hand, although containing higher levels of sulfur, remains an essential part of the market due to its availability and the economic benefits it offers. It often requires additional processing steps, which can initially seem like a disadvantage. However, with the advancements in refining technology that allow for more efficient processing and sulfur removal, sour light crude provides a cost-effective alternative. This type is particularly significant in regions where local refining capabilities have been upgraded to handle such crude, thereby expanding its potential market

Access monthly energy price assessments for Germany, featuring Crude Oil and other key energy commodities. Coverage includes 10-year price history, current values, short-term forecasts, and market trends. Updated on the 3rd business day of each month, the data offers insights on prices, supply, demand, production, and trade. Available via PDF reports, Excel Add-In, Power BI, and API. Coverage for Germany and over 30 other countries is included in Intratec Energy Prices & Markets. Free preview available.

Learn about the expected growth in the palm oil market over the next six years, driven by increasing global demand. Market volume is projected to reach 100 million tons and market value to hit $115.3 billion by 2030.

The global intermediate crude oil market size was valued at USD XX million in 2025 and is projected to reach USD XX million by 2033, exhibiting a CAGR of XX% during the forecast period. The market growth is primarily driven by rising demand for oil-based products. The growing population and rapid industrialization in emerging economies have fueled the consumption of intermediate crude oil in the petroleum refining, chemical industry, energy production, transportation, and other end-use industries. Additionally, increasing government initiatives to promote renewable energy sources and reduce carbon emissions have led to a shift towards cleaner and environmentally friendly fuel options, further propelling the demand for intermediate crude oil. The intermediate crude oil market is segmented into types such as intermediate high sulfur crude oil and intermediate low sulfur crude oil. The intermediate high sulfur crude oil segment held the largest market share in 2025, owing to its high energy content and cost-effectiveness compared to low sulfur crude oil. However, the intermediate low sulfur crude oil segment is expected to witness a higher growth rate during the forecast period due to increasing demand for cleaner energy sources. The market is also segmented by application into petroleum refining, chemical industry, energy production, transportation, and others. The petroleum refining segment accounted for the largest share of the market in 2025, as crude oil is primarily used as a raw material in the production of refined petroleum products such as gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel.

UP Forecast: Energy Consumption (EC): Industry data was reported at 268,390.000 kcal bn in 2025. This records a decrease from the previous number of 271,520.000 kcal bn for 2024. UP Forecast: Energy Consumption (EC): Industry data is updated yearly, averaging 277,730.000 kcal bn from Dec 2017 (Median) to 2025, with 9 observations. The data reached an all-time high of 280,000.000 kcal bn in 2018 and a record low of 268,390.000 kcal bn in 2025. UP Forecast: Energy Consumption (EC): Industry data remains active status in CEIC and is reported by Unione Petrolifera. The data is categorized under Global Database’s Italy – Table IT.RB010: Energy and Oil Demand: Forecast: Unione Petrolifera.

Explore the potential 2024 global oil market oversupply, driven by OPEC+ output hikes and non-OPEC supply growth, amid modest demand increases predicted by the IEA.

Italy UP Forecast: ED: Petroleum Products data was reported at 5.500 TOE mn in 2025. This records a decrease from the previous number of 5.600 TOE mn for 2024. Italy UP Forecast: ED: Petroleum Products data is updated yearly, averaging 6.500 TOE mn from Dec 2017 (Median) to 2025, with 9 observations. The data reached an all-time high of 6.700 TOE mn in 2021 and a record low of 5.500 TOE mn in 2025. Italy UP Forecast: ED: Petroleum Products data remains active status in CEIC and is reported by Unione Petrolifera. The data is categorized under Global Database’s Italy – Table IT.RB010: Energy and Oil Demand: Forecast: Unione Petrolifera.