United States Recession Probability data was reported at 14.120 % in Oct 2019. This records a decrease from the previous number of 14.505 % for Sep 2019. United States Recession Probability data is updated monthly, averaging 7.668 % from Jan 1960 (Median) to Oct 2019, with 718 observations. The data reached an all-time high of 95.405 % in Dec 1981 and a record low of 0.080 % in Sep 1983. United States Recession Probability data remains active status in CEIC and is reported by Federal Reserve Bank of New York. The data is categorized under Global Database’s United States – Table US.S021: Recession Probability.

From the Summer of 2007 until the end of 2009 (at least), the world was gripped by a series of economic crises commonly known as the Global Financial Crisis (2007-2008) and the Great Recession (2008-2009). The financial crisis was triggered by the collapse of the U.S. housing market, which caused panic on Wall Street, the center of global finance in New York. Due to the outsized nature of the U.S. economy compared to other countries and particularly the centrality of U.S. finance for the world economy, the crisis spread quickly to other countries, affecting most regions across the globe. By 2009, global GDP growth was in negative territory, with international credit markets frozen, international trade contracting, and tens of millions of workers being made unemployed.

Global similarities, global differences

Since the 1980s, the world economy had entered a period of integration and globalization. This process particularly accelerated after the collapse of the Soviet Union ended the Cold War (1947-1991). This was the period of the 'Washington Consensus', whereby the U.S. and international institutions such as the World Bank and IMF promoted policies of economic liberalization across the globe. This increasing interdependence and openness to the global economy meant that when the crisis hit in 2007, many countries experienced the same issues. This is particularly evident in the synchronization of the recessions in the most advanced economies of the G7. Nevertheless, the aggregate global GDP number masks the important regional differences which occurred during the recession. While the more advanced economies of North America, Western Europe, and Japan were all hit hard, along with countries who are reliant on them for trade or finance, large emerging economies such as India and China bucked this trend. In particular, China's huge fiscal stimulus in 2008-2009 likely did much to prevent the global economy from sliding further into a depression. In 2009, while the United States' GDP sank to -2.6 percent, China's GDP, as reported by national authorities, was almost 10 percent.

Between ************ and *********, global recession fear went through periods of sharp increases three times. First, in the summer of 2019, due to an escalation in U.S.-China relations and a recession signal being flashed by the bond market. The second peak of worldwide recession fear took place in **********, as a result of the alarming jump in the rate of COVID-19 cases. The fear of recession started to increase sharply again in *************, as the conflict between Russia and Ukraine escalated.

United States NBER-Based Recession Indicators from the Peak Through the Trough data was reported at 0.000 Unit in 14 May 2025. This stayed constant from the previous number of 0.000 Unit for 13 May 2025. United States NBER-Based Recession Indicators from the Peak Through the Trough data is updated daily, averaging 0.000 Unit from Dec 1854 (Median) to 14 May 2025, with 62256 observations. The data reached an all-time high of 1.000 Unit in 15 Apr 2020 and a record low of 0.000 Unit in 14 May 2025. United States NBER-Based Recession Indicators from the Peak Through the Trough data remains active status in CEIC and is reported by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. The data is categorized under Global Database’s United States – Table US.S: NBER-Based Recession Indicators.

United States FRB Recession Risk data was reported at 0.178 % in Apr 2025. This records a decrease from the previous number of 0.192 % for Mar 2025. United States FRB Recession Risk data is updated monthly, averaging 0.193 % from Jan 1973 (Median) to Apr 2025, with 628 observations. The data reached an all-time high of 1.000 % in Oct 2008 and a record low of 0.022 % in Jul 2003. United States FRB Recession Risk data remains active status in CEIC and is reported by Federal Reserve Board. The data is categorized under Global Database’s United States – Table US.S090: FRB Recession Risk.

By April 2026, it is projected that there is a probability of ***** percent that the United States will fall into another economic recession. This reflects a significant decrease from the projection of the preceding month.

According to a 2019 global survey, **** percent of logistics industry professionals thought that, in the event of a recession in 2020, emerging markets would be affected the same as developed markets. During the same survey, **** percent of them believed a global recession was likely to happen in 2020.

United States NBER based Recession Indi frm the Peak to the Pd Prcdng the Trough data was reported at 0.000 Unit in 14 May 2025. This stayed constant from the previous number of 0.000 Unit for 13 May 2025. United States NBER based Recession Indi frm the Peak to the Pd Prcdng the Trough data is updated daily, averaging 0.000 Unit from Dec 1854 (Median) to 14 May 2025, with 62256 observations. The data reached an all-time high of 1.000 Unit in 31 Mar 2020 and a record low of 0.000 Unit in 14 May 2025. United States NBER based Recession Indi frm the Peak to the Pd Prcdng the Trough data remains active status in CEIC and is reported by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. The data is categorized under Global Database’s United States – Table US.S: NBER-Based Recession Indicators.

United States NBER: Recorded Recession data was reported at 0.000 Unit in Oct 2018. This stayed constant from the previous number of 0.000 Unit for Sep 2018. United States NBER: Recorded Recession data is updated monthly, averaging 0.000 Unit from Jan 1959 (Median) to Oct 2018, with 718 observations. The data reached an all-time high of 1.000 Unit in Jun 2009 and a record low of 0.000 Unit in Oct 2018. United States NBER: Recorded Recession data remains active status in CEIC and is reported by Federal Reserve Bank of New York. The data is categorized under Global Database’s United States – Table US.S021: Recession Probability. An interpretation of US Business Cycle Expansions and Contractions data provided by The National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER). A value of 1 is a recessionary period, while a value of 0 is an expansionary period.

This statistic shows public evaluation of who was to blame for the economic problems in each country as of 2012. 78 percent of respondents in Spain felt that it was the banks and financial institutions that were most to blame for the current economic problems in their own country as of 2012.

GDP-Based Recession Indicator Index data was reported at 6.800 % Point in Dec 2024. This records an increase from the previous number of 2.300 % Point for Sep 2024. GDP-Based Recession Indicator Index data is updated quarterly, averaging 7.900 % Point from Dec 1967 (Median) to Dec 2024, with 229 observations. The data reached an all-time high of 100.000 % Point in Jun 2020 and a record low of 0.000 % Point in Sep 2020. GDP-Based Recession Indicator Index data remains active status in CEIC and is reported by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. The data is categorized under Global Database’s United States – Table US.S094: GDP-Based Recession Indicator Index.

A survey conducted among global brands revealed that talks of a recession in 2023 influence their media budget decisions. Nearly ** percent of the multinationals surveyed agreed or strongly agreed that an economic crisis is taken into consideration when planning advertising and market expenditures for 2023.

The Long Depression was, by a large margin, the longest-lasting recession in U.S. history. It began in the U.S. with the Panic of 1873, and lasted for over five years. This depression was the largest in a series of recessions at the turn of the 20th century, which proved to be a period of overall stagnation as the U.S. financial markets failed to keep pace with industrialization and changes in monetary policy. Great Depression The Great Depression, however, is widely considered to have been the most severe recession in U.S. history. Following the Wall Street Crash in 1929, the country's economy collapsed, wages fell and a quarter of the workforce was unemployed. It would take almost four years for recovery to begin. Additionally, U.S. expansion and integration in international markets allowed the depression to become a global event, which became a major catalyst in the build up to the Second World War. Decreasing severity When comparing recessions before and after the Great Depression, they have generally become shorter and less frequent over time. Only three recessions in the latter period have lasted more than one year. Additionally, while there were 12 recessions between 1880 and 1920, there were only six recessions between 1980 and 2020. The most severe recession in recent years was the financial crisis of 2007 (known as the Great Recession), where irresponsible lending policies and lack of government regulation allowed for a property bubble to develop and become detached from the economy over time, this eventually became untenable and the bubble burst. Although the causes of both the Great Depression and Great Recession were similar in many aspects, economists have been able to use historical evidence to try and predict, prevent, or limit the impact of future recessions.

IBISWorld examines the potentially significant effects of a global recession on domestic industries, businesses and consumers.

In 2020, global gross domestic product declined by 6.7 percent as a result of the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic outbreak. In Latin America, overall GDP loss amounted to 8.5 percent.

The primary concerns for the alternatives' industry for the next five years by asset managers and investors worldwide were the expectation of a global recession, with ** percent of investors and ** percent of asset managers expecting to face this challenge within the next five years. The ****** most anticipated concern is geopolitical risks.

United States Recession Prob: Yield Curve: 10 Year Treasury Yield data was reported at 3.150 % in Oct 2018. This records an increase from the previous number of 3.000 % for Sep 2018. United States Recession Prob: Yield Curve: 10 Year Treasury Yield data is updated monthly, averaging 5.750 % from Jan 1959 (Median) to Oct 2018, with 718 observations. The data reached an all-time high of 15.320 % in Sep 1981 and a record low of 1.500 % in Jul 2016. United States Recession Prob: Yield Curve: 10 Year Treasury Yield data remains active status in CEIC and is reported by Federal Reserve Bank of New York. The data is categorized under Global Database’s United States – Table US.S021: Recession Probability.

Due to the rising inflation rates worldwide in 2022, many consumers are of the opinion that we are entering a recession. This was most pronounced in the United Kingdom, where ** percent of the respondents strongly or very much agreed with the statement that we are entering a recession as of September 2022. On the contrary, less than a quarter of the respondents in China were of the same opinion. In total, around half of the respondents worldwide believed that we are entering a recession.

From the onset of the Global Financial Crisis in the Summer of 2007, the world economy experienced an almost unprecedented period of turmoil in which millions of people were made unemployed, businesses declared bankruptcy en masse, and structurally critical financial institutions failed. The crisis was triggered by the collapse of the U.S. housing market and subsequent losses by investment banks such as Bear Stearns, Lehman Brothers, and Merrill Lynch. These institutions, which had become over-leveraged with complex financial securities known as derivatives, were tied to each other through a web of financial contracts, meaning that the collapse of one investment bank could trigger the collapse of several others. As Lehman Brothers failed on September 15. 2008, becoming the largest bankruptcy in U.S. history, shockwaves were felt throughout the global financial system. The sudden stop of flows of credit worldwide caused a financial panic and sent most of the world's largest economies into a deep recession, later known as the Great Recession. The World Economy in recession
More than any other period in history, the world economy had become highly interconnected and interdependent over the period from the 1970s to 2007. As governments liberalized financial flows, banks and other financial institutions could take money in one country and invest it in another part of the globe. Financial institutions and other non-financial companies became multinational, meaning that they had subsidiaries and partners in many regions. All this meant that when Wall Street, the center of global finance in New York City, was shaken by bankruptcies and credit freezes in late 2007, other advanced economies did not need to wait long to feel the tremors. All of the G7 countries, the seven most economically advanced western-aligned countries, entered recession in 2008, before experiencing an even deeper trough in 2009. While all returned to growth by 2010, this was less stable in the countries of the Eurozone (Germany, France, Italy) over the following years due to the Eurozone crisis, as well as in Japan, which has had issues with low growth since the mid-1990s.

The AI Sensor market is poised for explosive growth, demonstrating remarkable resilience even amidst a global recession. Driven by the urgent need for automation, efficiency, and cost optimization across industries, the demand for intelligent sensors is accelerating. While economic uncertainty may cause short-term hesitations in capital expenditure, the long-term strategic value of AI-driven data analysis in predictive maintenance, quality control, and autonomous systems positions the market for substantial expansion. Sectors such as manufacturing, automotive, healthcare, and logistics are leading this adoption wave. The market's trajectory is fueled by advancements in edge computing, IoT proliferation, and increasingly sophisticated machine learning algorithms, which together unlock unprecedented operational insights and capabilities, making AI sensors a critical investment for future-proofing businesses. Key strategic insights from our comprehensive analysis reveal:

Despite recessionary pressures, the market is projected to grow at an exceptional CAGR of 38.6%, as businesses prioritize long-term efficiency and automation investments over short-term discretionary spending.
The push for operational resilience is shifting focus towards high-ROI applications like predictive maintenance and energy management, which offer clear and rapid cost-saving benefits in a challenging economic climate.
North America and Asia Pacific are the dominant regions, driven by strong technology ecosystems and massive manufacturing bases, respectively, creating a competitive and innovative landscape for AI sensor development and deployment.

Global Market Overview & Dynamics of AI Sensor Market with Recession Market Analysis The global AI Sensor market is on a path of transformative growth, fundamentally reshaping how industries collect, process, and act on data. This expansion is propelled by the convergence of advanced sensor technology, powerful edge computing, and sophisticated AI algorithms. Even with the backdrop of a global recession, the market's momentum is sustained by an intensified focus on automation and operational efficiency as companies seek to reduce costs and enhance productivity. AI sensors are becoming integral to diverse applications, from industrial IoT and autonomous vehicles to smart cities and personalized healthcare, creating a dynamic and highly competitive environment. The ability of these sensors to provide real-time, actionable intelligence at the source is the core value proposition driving their widespread adoption. Global AI Sensor Market with Recession Market Drivers

Imperative for Automation and Cost Reduction: During a recession, businesses aggressively seek to reduce operational expenditures and enhance productivity. AI sensors enable automation in manufacturing, logistics, and quality control, directly addressing these needs by minimizing labor costs, reducing errors, and optimizing resource utilization.
Proliferation of IoT and Edge Computing: The expanding Internet of Things (IoT) ecosystem generates massive volumes of data. AI sensors with edge computing capabilities can process this data locally, reducing latency, lowering bandwidth costs, and enabling real-time decision-making, which is critical for applications like autonomous systems and smart infrastructure.
Advancements in AI and Sensor Technology: Continuous improvements in machine learning algorithms, coupled with the miniaturization and cost reduction of high-performance sensors (like LiDAR, radar, and image sensors), are making sophisticated AI-powered sensing more accessible and effective for a broader range of applications.

Global AI Sensor Market with Recession Market Trends

Surge in Predictive Maintenance Applications: Industries are increasingly adopting AI sensors to monitor equipment health in real-time. By predicting failures before they occur, companies can minimize costly unplanned downtime and transition from reactive to proactive maintenance strategies, a trend that gains significant traction during economic downturns.
Integration into Autonomous Vehicles and ADAS: The automotive sector is a key growth area, with AI sensors forming the sensory backbone of Advanced Driver-Assistance Systems (ADAS) and fully autonomous vehicles. The fusion of data from cameras, radar, and LiDAR, processed by onboard AI, is critical for safe and reliable navigation.
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