The world population surpassed eight billion people in 2022, having doubled from its figure less than 50 years previously. Looking forward, it is projected that the world population will reach nine billion in 2038, and 10 billion in 2060, but it will peak around 10.3 billion in the 2080s before it then goes into decline. Regional variations The global population has seen rapid growth since the early 1800s, due to advances in areas such as food production, healthcare, water safety, education, and infrastructure, however, these changes did not occur at a uniform time or pace across the world. Broadly speaking, the first regions to undergo their demographic transitions were Europe, North America, and Oceania, followed by Latin America and Asia (although Asia's development saw the greatest variation due to its size), while Africa was the last continent to undergo this transformation. Because of these differences, many so-called "advanced" countries are now experiencing population decline, particularly in Europe and East Asia, while the fastest population growth rates are found in Sub-Saharan Africa. In fact, the roughly two billion difference in population between now and the 2080s' peak will be found in Sub-Saharan Africa, which will rise from 1.2 billion to 3.2 billion in this time (although populations in other continents will also fluctuate). Changing projections The United Nations releases their World Population Prospects report every 1-2 years, and this is widely considered the foremost demographic dataset in the world. However, recent years have seen a notable decline in projections when the global population will peak, and at what number. Previous reports in the 2010s had suggested a peak of over 11 billion people, and that population growth would continue into the 2100s, however a sooner and shorter peak is now projected. Reasons for this include a more rapid population decline in East Asia and Europe, particularly China, as well as a prolonged development arc in Sub-Saharan Africa.

The world's population first reached one billion people in 1805, and reached eight billion in 2022, and will peak at almost 10.2 billion by the end of the century. Although it took thousands of years to reach one billion people, it did so at the beginning of a phenomenon known as the demographic transition; from this point onwards, population growth has skyrocketed, and since the 1960s the population has increased by one billion people every 12 to 15 years. The demographic transition sees a sharp drop in mortality due to factors such as vaccination, sanitation, and improved food supply; the population boom that follows is due to increased survival rates among children and higher life expectancy among the general population; and fertility then drops in response to this population growth. Regional differences The demographic transition is a global phenomenon, but it has taken place at different times across the world. The industrialized countries of Europe and North America were the first to go through this process, followed by some states in the Western Pacific. Latin America's population then began growing at the turn of the 20th century, but the most significant period of global population growth occurred as Asia progressed in the late-1900s. As of the early 21st century, almost two-thirds of the world's population lives in Asia, although this is set to change significantly in the coming decades. Future growth The growth of Africa's population, particularly in Sub-Saharan Africa, will have the largest impact on global demographics in this century. From 2000 to 2100, it is expected that Africa's population will have increased by a factor of almost five. It overtook Europe in size in the late 1990s, and overtook the Americas a few years later. In contrast to Africa, Europe's population is now in decline, as birth rates are consistently below death rates in many countries, especially in the south and east, resulting in natural population decline. Similarly, the population of the Americas and Asia are expected to go into decline in the second half of this century, and only Oceania's population will still be growing alongside Africa. By 2100, the world's population will have over three billion more than today, with the vast majority of this concentrated in Africa. Demographers predict that climate change is exacerbating many of the challenges that currently hinder progress in Africa, such as political and food instability; if Africa's transition is prolonged, then it may result in further population growth that would place a strain on the region's resources, however, curbing this growth earlier would alleviate some of the pressure created by climate change.

The Gridded Population of the World, Version 4 (GPWv4): Basic Demographic Characteristics, Revision 11 consists of estimates of human population by age and sex as counts (number of persons per pixel) and densities (number of persons per square kilometer), consistent with national censuses and population registers, for the year 2010. To estimate the male and female populations by age in 2010, the proportions of males and females in each 5-year age group from ages 0-4 to ages 85+ for the given census year were calculated. These proportions were then applied to the 2010 estimates of the total population to obtain 2010 estimates of male and female populations by age. In some cases, the spatial resolution of the age and sex proportions was coarser than the resolution of the total population estimates to which they were applied. The population density rasters were created by dividing the population count rasters by the land area raster. The data files were produced as global rasters at 30 arc-second (~1 km at the equator) resolution. To enable faster global processing, and in support of research commUnities, the 30 arc-second data were aggregated to 2.5 arc-minute, 15 arc-minute, 30 arc-minute and 1 degree resolutions.

This map comes from a preliminary release of the Gridded Population of the World, Version 4 (GPWv4). GPWv4 is a gridded data product that depicts global population data from the 2010 round of Population and Housing Censuses at a scale and extent sufficient to demonstrate the spatial relationship between human populations and the environment across the globe. This population grid provides globally-consistent and spatially-explicit data for use in research, policy making, and communications and is compatible with data sets from social, economic, and Earth science fields.GPWv4 is constructed from national or subnational input areal units of varying resolutions. The native grid cell size is 30 arc-seconds, or ~1 km at the equator. Separate grids are available for population count, population density, estimated land area, and data quality indicators.The full GPWv4 data collection will consist of population estimates for the years 2000, 2005, 2010, 2015, and 2020, and will include grids for estimates of total population, age, sex, and urban/rural status. However, this preliminary release consists only of total population estimates for the year 2010. This data is being released now to allow users early access to the population grids.Source: Columbia University, CIESIN

The Global Population Projection Grids Based on Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs), 2010-2100 consists of global spatial population projections at a resolution of one-eighth degree (7.5 arc-minutes) for urban, rural, and total population, consistent both quantitatively and qualitatively, with the SSPs at ten-year intervals for 2010-2100. Spatial demographic projections are key inputs for the analysis of land use, energy use, and emissions, as well as for the assessment of climate change vulnerability, impacts, and adaptation. The SSPs are developed to support future climate and global change research and the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Sixth Assessment Report (AR6). This data set is produced based on a clear need for plausible alternative projections of spatial distribution of the population that can represent patterns of development consistent with the SSPs.

Description to be added

Over the past 23 years, there were constantly more men than women living on the planet. Of the 8.06 billion people living on the Earth in 2023, 4.05 billion were men and 4.01 billion were women. One-quarter of the world's total population in 2024 was below 15 years.

This is a hybrid gridded dataset of demographic data for the world, given as 5-year population bands at a 0.5 degree grid resolution.

This dataset combines the NASA SEDAC Gridded Population of the World version 4 (GPWv4) with the ISIMIP Histsoc gridded population data and the United Nations World Population Program (WPP) demographic modelling data.

Demographic fractions are given for the time period covered by the UN WPP model (1950-2050) while demographic totals are given for the time period covered by the combination of GPWv4 and Histsoc (1950-2020)

Method - demographic fractions

Demographic breakdown of country population by grid cell is calculated by combining the GPWv4 demographic data given for 2010 with the yearly country breakdowns from the UN WPP. This combines the spatial distribution of demographics from GPWv4 with the temporal trends from the UN WPP. This makes it possible to calculate exposure trends from 1980 to the present day.

To combine the UN WPP demographics with the GPWv4 demographics, we calculate for each country the proportional change in fraction of demographic in each age band relative to 2010 as:

\(\delta_{year,\ country,age}^{\text{wpp}} = f_{year,\ country,age}^{\text{wpp}}/f_{2010,country,age}^{\text{wpp}}\)

Where:

- \(\delta_{year,\ country,age}^{\text{wpp}}\) is the ratio of change in demographic for a given age and and country from the UN WPP dataset.

- \(f_{year,\ country,age}^{\text{wpp}}\) is the fraction of population in the UN WPP dataset for a given age band, country, and year.

- \(f_{2010,country,age}^{\text{wpp}}\) is the fraction of population in the UN WPP dataset for a given age band, country for the year 2020.

The gridded demographic fraction is then calculated relative to the 2010 demographic data given by GPWv4.

For each subset of cells corresponding to a given country c, the fraction of population in a given age band is calculated as:

\(f_{year,c,age}^{\text{gpw}} = \delta_{year,\ country,age}^{\text{wpp}}*f_{2010,c,\text{age}}^{\text{gpw}}\)

Where:

- \(f_{year,c,age}^{\text{gpw}}\) is the fraction of the population in a given age band for given year, for the grid cell c.

- \(f_{2010,c,age}^{\text{gpw}}\) is the fraction of the population in a given age band for 2010, for the grid cell c.

The matching between grid cells and country codes is performed using the GPWv4 gridded country code lookup data and country name lookup table. The final dataset is assembled by combining the cells from all countries into a single gridded time series. This time series covers the whole period from 1950-2050, corresponding to the data available in the UN WPP model.

Method - demographic totals

Total population data from 1950 to 1999 is drawn from ISIMIP Histsoc, while data from 2000-2020 is drawn from GPWv4. These two gridded time series are simply joined at the cut-over date to give a single dataset covering 1950-2020.

The total population per age band per cell is calculated by multiplying the population fractions by the population totals per grid cell.

Note that as the total population data only covers until 2020, the time span covered by the demographic population totals data is 1950-2020 (not 1950-2050).

Disclaimer

This dataset is a hybrid of different datasets with independent methodologies. No guarantees are made about the spatial or temporal consistency across dataset boundaries. The dataset may contain outlier points (e.g single cells with demographic fractions >1). This dataset is produced on a 'best effort' basis and has been found to be broadly consistent with other approaches, but may contain inconsistencies which not been identified.

The Gridded Population of the World, Version 4 (GPWv4): Population Density, Revision 11 consists of estimates of human population density (number of persons per square kilometer) based on counts consistent with national censuses and population registers, for the years 2000, 2005, 2010, 2015, and 2020. A proportional allocation gridding algorithm, utilizing approximately 13.5 million national and sub-national administrative units, was used to assign population counts to 30 arc-second grid cells. The population density rasters were created by dividing the population count raster for a given target year by the land area raster. The data files were produced as global rasters at 30 arc-second (~1 km at the equator) resolution. To enable faster global processing, and in support of research communities, the 30 arc-second count data were aggregated to 2.5 arc-minute, 15 arc-minute, 30 arc-minute and 1 degree resolutions to produce density rasters at these resolutions. To provide estimates of population density for the years 2000, 2005, 2010, 2015, and 2020, based on counts consistent with national censuses and population registers, as raster data to facilitate data integration.

The Gridded Population of the World, Version 3 (GPWv3): Population Count Grid, Future Estimates consists of estimates of human population for the years 2005, 2010, and 2015 by 2.5 arc-minute grid cells and associated data sets dated circa 2000. A proportional allocation gridding algorithm, utilizing more than 300,000 national and sub-national administrative Units, is used to assign population values to grid cells. The population counts that the grids are derived from are extrapolated based on a combination of subnational growth rates from census dates and national growth rates from United Nations statistics. All of the grids have been adjusted to match United Nations national level population estimates. The population count grids contain estimates of the number of persons per grid cell. The grids are available in various GIS-compatible data formats and geographic extents (global, continent [Antarctica not included], and country levels). GPWv3 is produced by the Columbia University Center for International Earth Science Information Network (CIESIN) in collaboration with Centro Internacional de Agricultura Tropical (CIAT).

The Global 1-km Downscaled Population Base Year and Projection Grids Based on the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways, Revision 01, data set consists of global urban, rural, and total populaton for the base year 2000, and population projections at ten-year intervals for 2010-2100 at a resolution of 1-km (about 30 arc-seconds), consistent both quantitatively and qualitatively with the SSPs. This 1-km data set is a downscaled version of the one-eighth degree (7.5 arc-minutes) data published in Jones and O'Neill (2016). The downscaling methods were published in Gao (2017). Spatial demographic data are key inputs for the analysis of land use, energy use, and emissions, as well as for the assessment of climate change vulnerability, impacts, and adaptation. The SSPs are developed to support future climate and global change research and the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Sixth Assessment Report (AR6).

This statistic depicts a projection of the global population aged 65 and over between 2010 and 2050, sorted by geographic area. In 2025, there will be some *** million people aged 65 and over in Europe. That would be some ** percent of the total European population.

LandScan Global Population Database 2010. Population counts at 30 arc second resolution.

Context

In demographics, the world population is the total number of humans currently living, and was estimated to have reached 7,800,000,000 people as of March 2020. It took over 2 million years of human history for the world's population to reach 1 billion, and only 200 years more to reach 7 billion. The world population has experienced continuous growth following the Great Famine of 1315–1317 and the end of the Black Death in 1350, when it was near 370 million. The highest global population growth rates, with increases of over 1.8% per year, occurred between 1955 and 1975 – peaking to 2.1% between 1965 and 1970.[7] The growth rate declined to 1.2% between 2010 and 2015 and is projected to decline further in the course of the 21st century. However, the global population is still increasing[8] and is projected to reach about 10 billion in 2050 and more than 11 billion in 2100.

Content

Annual population growth rate for year t is the exponential rate of growth of midyear population from year t-1 to t, expressed as a percentage . Population is based on the de facto definition of population, which counts all residents regardless of legal status or citizenship. Annual population growth rate. Population is based on the de facto definition of population, which counts all residents regardless of legal status or citizenship.

Statistical Concept and Methodology

Total population growth rates are calculated on the assumption that rate of growth is constant between two points in time. The growth rate is computed using the exponential growth formula: r = ln(pn/p0)/n, where r is the exponential rate of growth, ln() is the natural logarithm, pn is the end period population, p0 is the beginning period population, and n is the number of years in between. Note that this is not the geometric growth rate used to compute compound growth over discrete periods. For information on total population from which the growth rates are calculated, see total population (SP.POP.TOTL).

Acknowledgements

Derived from total population. Population source: ( 1 ) United Nations Population Division. World Population Prospects: 2019 Revision, ( 2 ) Census reports and other statistical publications from national statistical offices, ( 3 ) Eurostat: Demographic Statistics, ( 4 ) United Nations Statistical Division. Population and Vital Statistics Reprot ( various years ), ( 5 ) U.S. Census Bureau: International Database, and ( 6 ) Secretariat of the Pacific Community: Statistics and Demography Programme.

Human: areas where population growth (>100hab/km2) is exacerbating climate change impacts - baseline (1981-2010)

In 2022, there were around 1.39 billion Catholics worldwide, approximately 17.7 percent of the total global population. Even though the Catholic population has increased in absolute numbers, the share of Catholics has always fluctuated around 17 percent since 2010.

In 2022, there were around 1.39 billion Catholics worldwide, approximately 17.7 percent of the total global population. Even though the Catholic population has increased in absolute numbers, the share of Catholics has always fluctuated around 17 percent since 2010.

The Gridded Population of the World, Version 3 (GPWv3): Population Density Grid, Future Estimates consists of estimates of human population for the years 2005, 2010, and 2015 by 2.5 arc-minute grid cells. A proportional allocation gridding algorithm, utilizing more than 300,000 national and sub-national administrative units, is used to assign population values to grid cells. The future estimate population values are extrapolated based on a combination of subnational growth rates from census dates and national growth rates from United Nations statistics. All of the grids have been adjusted to match United Nations national level population estimates. The population density grids are derived by dividing the population count grids by the land area grid and represent persons per square kilometer. The grids are available in various GIS-compatible data formats and geographic extents (global, continent [Antarctica not included], and country levels). GPWv3 is produced by the Columbia University Center for International Earth Science Information Network (CIESIN) in collaboration with Centro Internacional de Agricultura Tropical(CIAT).

Developed for the U. S. Department of Defense. Allows for quick and easy assessment, estimation, and visualization of populations-at-risk.

The LandScan 2009 global population data set is a worldwide population database compiled on a 30" X 30" latitude/longitude grid. Census counts (at sub-national level) were apportioned to each grid cell based on likelihood coefficients, which are based on proximity to roads, slope, land cover, nighttime lights, and other data sets. LandScan has been developed as part of the Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) Global Population Project for estimating ambient populations at risk. The LandScan files are available via the internet in ESRI grid format by continent and for the world. At approximately 1 km resolution (30" X 30"), There is also a "Layer" file (lspop2000.lyr) for ArcGIS. LandScan is the finest resolution global population distribution data available and represents an ambient population (average over 24 hours). This dataset is part of the LandScan 2000 Global Population Database (2000-2010).