By April 2026, it is projected that there is a probability of ***** percent that the United States will fall into another economic recession. This reflects a significant decrease from the projection of the preceding month.

Lehman Brothers, the fourth largest investment bank on Wall Street, declared bankruptcy on the 15th of September 2008, becoming the largest bankruptcy in U.S. history. The investment house, which was founded in the mid-19th century, had become heavily involved in the U.S. housing bubble in the early 2000s, with its large holdings of toxic mortgage-backed securities (MBS) ultimately causing the bank's downfall. The bank had expanded rapidly following the repeal of the Glass-Steagall Act in 1999, which meant that investment banks could also engage in commercial banking activities. Lehman vertically integrated their mortgage business, buying smaller commercial enterprises that originated housing loans, which allowed the bank to expand its MBS holdings. The downfall of Lehman and the crash of '08 As the U.S. housing market began to slow down in 2006, the default rate on housing loans began to spike, triggering losses for Lehman from their MBS portfolio. Lehman's main competitor in mortgage financing, Bear Stearns, was bought by J.P. Morgan Chase in order to prevent bankruptcy in March 2008, leading investors and lenders to become increasingly concerned about the bank's financial health. As the bank relied on short-term funding on money markets in order to meet its obligations, the news of its huge losses in the third-quarter of 2008 further prevented it from funding itself on financial markets. By September, it was clear that without external assistance, the bank would fail. As its losses from credit default swaps mounted due to the deepening crash in the housing market, Lehman was forced to declare bankruptcy on September 15, as no buyer could be found to save the bank. The collapse of Lehman triggered panic in global financial markets, forcing the U.S. government to step in and bail-out the insurance giant AIG the next day on September 16. The effects of this financial crisis hit the non-financial economy hard, causing a global recession in 2009.

Graph and download economic data for Real-time Sahm Rule Recession Indicator (SAHMREALTIME) from Dec 1959 to Jun 2025 about recession indicators, academic data, and USA.

Oil prices have dropped to a four-year low, influenced by trade tensions and tariffs, raising concerns about economic growth and energy demand.

Gold prices fell by 3.58% on Monday due to global tariff concerns, yet remain up 16.77% since January amid economic uncertainty.

Oil prices rebounded by more than 1% on Tuesday, recovering from a recent decline driven by concerns over U.S. tariffs and potential global recession impacts.

According to recent market data, it was calculated that in 2022 newspaper ad spending worldwide is expected to decrease by *** percent compared to 2021. This medium has been receiving less attention from advertisers since 2008, with the second highest drop a year later, most probably as a result of recession. In 2020, when the coronavirus broke out, newspaper ad spend experienced the largest negative growth to date.

Introduction

The global semiconductor industry is currently facing significant challenges due to the imposition of tariffs, which have disrupted supply chains and increased production costs. These tariffs, particularly those introduced by the U.S. administration, have led to a reevaluation of manufacturing strategies across the sector. In 2025, the United States imposed tariffs of up to 145% on Chinese semiconductor imports, prompting retaliatory tariffs of 125% from China. These measures have significantly strained the global semiconductor supply chain, leading to increased costs and uncertainties for manufacturers and consumers alike.

For instance, Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) has projected a revenue impact of $1.5 billion in 2025 due to new U.S. export restrictions on advanced AI chip shipments to China, a market that accounts for over 24% of AMD's revenue. Similarly, the German chip-equipment maker Suss MicroTec has warned that new U.S. tariffs could severely disrupt global semiconductor supply chains and potentially trigger a worldwide recession. These developments underscore the far-reaching implications of trade policies on the semiconductor industry, affecting not only corporate revenues but also the broader global economy.

Around 30% of businesses are currently adopting a wait-and-watch approach toward the ongoing uncertainty surrounding semiconductor tariffs. This cautious stance reflects growing concerns over supply chain unpredictability. In contrast, before the introduction of the Trump-era tariffs, nearly 61% of companies had already started reshaping their procurement strategies, actively exploring alternative suppliers. This shift was largely driven by heightened geopolitical tensions, evolving global trade policies, and new market barriers, all of which increased the complexity of international semiconductor trade. Businesses now demand greater transparency to make informed decisions in this rapidly changing environment.

This special topic poll is part of a continuing series of monthly surveys that solicits public opinion on the presidency and on a range of other political and social issues. In this poll, fielded February 2-4, 2009, respondents were asked whether they approved of the way Barack Obama was handling the presidency, foreign policy, the economy, and the campaign against terrorism. Opinions were collected about whether the country was going in the right direction, whether the condition of the economy was good, how long the recession would last, and what could be done to get the United States out of the recession. Respondents were asked their opinions of Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi, Democrats in Congress, Republicans in Congress, and Congress as a whole. Several questions were asked about coal including questions that asked respondents whether they would approve of building plants that were powered by coal to generate electricity, whether it was a good idea to use coal to generate electricity, whether they thought doing so would contribute to global warming, whether they knew of any companies using technology to generate electricity from coal in a way that does not contribute to global warming, respondent's definition of "clean coal," and whether advertisements about "clean coal" technology had changed their opinion of whether it was possible to use coal to generate electricity in a way that was less likely to contribute to global warming. Other questions asked about the economic stimulus plan, how closely respondents had been following news about it, whether they approved of the federal government passing an economic stimulus bill, whether the bill would shorten the recession, and whether it was okay for the Democrats to pass the bill without the support of the Republicans in Congress. Additional topics addressed closing the United States prison in Guantanamo Bay, Cuba, abortion, job security, global warming, the concept of "nature versus nurture," and where people obtain their sense of morality. Demographic variables include sex, age, race, education level, marital status, household income, political party affiliation, political philosophy, voter registration status and participation history, religious preference, religious service attendance, and whether respondents considered themselves to be a born-again Christian.

Business Confidence in the United States increased to 49 points in June from 48.50 points in May of 2025. This dataset provides the latest reported value for - United States ISM Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) - plus previous releases, historical high and low, short-term forecast and long-term prediction, economic calendar, survey consensus and news.

Oil prices have dropped to a four-year low due to the US-China trade conflict, raising concerns about global energy demand and potential oversupply.

The U.S. dominates in global imports on the steel wire market, accounting for a 15% share (based on USD). It was followed by Germany (9%), France (4%), and Japan (4%). In 2015, U.S. steel wire imports totaled 2,503 million USD, which was 1% more than the year before. Imports experienced a drastic fall in 2009, when they dropped by nearly 41%. This was followed by rapid growth over the three years that followed, which lost its momentum in 2013, with imports growing at a weak pace through to 2015.

The statistic shows GDP per capita in the United Kingdom from 1987 to 2020, with projections up until 2030. In 2020, GDP per capita in the United Kingdom was at around 40,230.55 US dollars. The same year, the total UK population amounted to about 67.26 million people. The United Kingdom is among the leading countries in a world GDP ranking.Falling unemployment in a time of recessionGDP is a useful indicator when it comes to measuring the state of a nation’s economy. GDP is the market value of all final goods and services produced within a country in a given period of time, usually a year. GDP per capita equals exactly the GDI (gross domestic income) per capita and is not a measure of an individual’s personal income.As can be seen clearly in the statistic, gross domestic product (GDP) per capita in the United Kingdom is beginning to increase, albeit not to pre-recession levels. The UK is beginning to see signs of an economic recovery, though as of yet it remains unclear what sort of recovery this is. Questions have been raised as to whether the growth being seen is the right sort of growth for a well balanced recovery across the necessary sectors. An interesting oddity occurred in the United Kingdom for nine months in 2012, which saw a decreasing unemployment occurring at the same time as dip in nationwide economic productivity. This seems like good - if not unusual - news, but could be indicative of people entering part-time employment. It could also suggest that labor productivity is falling, meaning that the UK would be less competitive as a nation. The figures continue to rise, however, with an increase in employment in the private sector. With the rate of inflation in the UK impacting everyone’s daily lives, it is becoming increasingly difficult for vulnerable groups to maintain a decent standard of living.

Gold prices rebound, ending a three-day decline, as global economic concerns grow. The precious metal surpasses $3,000 an ounce amid trade war tensions.

Clorox revises its annual sales forecast amid economic uncertainty and reduced consumer demand linked to global trade tensions. Despite limited tariff exposure, recession fears impact performance.

The seasonally-adjusted national unemployment rate is measured on a monthly basis in the United States. In February 2025, the national unemployment rate was at 4.1 percent. Seasonal adjustment is a statistical method of removing the seasonal component of a time series that is used when analyzing non-seasonal trends. U.S. monthly unemployment rate According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics - the principle fact-finding agency for the U.S. Federal Government in labor economics and statistics - unemployment decreased dramatically between 2010 and 2019. This trend of decreasing unemployment followed after a high in 2010 resulting from the 2008 financial crisis. However, after a smaller financial crisis due to the COVID-19 pandemic, unemployment reached 8.1 percent in 2020. As the economy recovered, the unemployment rate fell to 5.3 in 2021, and fell even further in 2022. Additional statistics from the BLS paint an interesting picture of unemployment in the United States. In November 2023, the states with the highest (seasonally adjusted) unemployment rate were the Nevada and the District of Columbia. Unemployment was the lowest in Maryland, at 1.8 percent. Workers in the agricultural and related industries suffered the highest unemployment rate of any industry at seven percent in December 2023.

Aluminium prices decline amid weak demand and trade tensions, with China's production cap potentially stabilizing the market. Analysts predict price fluctuations due to global economic conditions.