On March 10, 2023, the Johns Hopkins Coronavirus Resource Center ceased its collecting and reporting of global COVID-19 data. For updated cases, deaths, and vaccine data please visit: World Health Organization (WHO)For more information, visit the Johns Hopkins Coronavirus Resource Center.COVID-19 Trends MethodologyOur goal is to analyze and present daily updates in the form of recent trends within countries, states, or counties during the COVID-19 global pandemic. The data we are analyzing is taken directly from the Johns Hopkins University Coronavirus COVID-19 Global Cases Dashboard, though we expect to be one day behind the dashboard’s live feeds to allow for quality assurance of the data.DOI: https://doi.org/10.6084/m9.figshare.125529863/7/2022 - Adjusted the rate of active cases calculation in the U.S. to reflect the rates of serious and severe cases due nearly completely dominant Omicron variant.6/24/2020 - Expanded Case Rates discussion to include fix on 6/23 for calculating active cases.6/22/2020 - Added Executive Summary and Subsequent Outbreaks sectionsRevisions on 6/10/2020 based on updated CDC reporting. This affects the estimate of active cases by revising the average duration of cases with hospital stays downward from 30 days to 25 days. The result shifted 76 U.S. counties out of Epidemic to Spreading trend and no change for national level trends.Methodology update on 6/2/2020: This sets the length of the tail of new cases to 6 to a maximum of 14 days, rather than 21 days as determined by the last 1/3 of cases. This was done to align trends and criteria for them with U.S. CDC guidance. The impact is areas transition into Controlled trend sooner for not bearing the burden of new case 15-21 days earlier.Correction on 6/1/2020Discussion of our assertion of an abundance of caution in assigning trends in rural counties added 5/7/2020. Revisions added on 4/30/2020 are highlighted.Revisions added on 4/23/2020 are highlighted.Executive SummaryCOVID-19 Trends is a methodology for characterizing the current trend for places during the COVID-19 global pandemic. Each day we assign one of five trends: Emergent, Spreading, Epidemic, Controlled, or End Stage to geographic areas to geographic areas based on the number of new cases, the number of active cases, the total population, and an algorithm (described below) that contextualize the most recent fourteen days with the overall COVID-19 case history. Currently we analyze the countries of the world and the U.S. Counties. The purpose is to give policymakers, citizens, and analysts a fact-based data driven sense for the direction each place is currently going. When a place has the initial cases, they are assigned Emergent, and if that place controls the rate of new cases, they can move directly to Controlled, and even to End Stage in a short time. However, if the reporting or measures to curtail spread are not adequate and significant numbers of new cases continue, they are assigned to Spreading, and in cases where the spread is clearly uncontrolled, Epidemic trend.We analyze the data reported by Johns Hopkins University to produce the trends, and we report the rates of cases, spikes of new cases, the number of days since the last reported case, and number of deaths. We also make adjustments to the assignments based on population so rural areas are not assigned trends based solely on case rates, which can be quite high relative to local populations.Two key factors are not consistently known or available and should be taken into consideration with the assigned trend. First is the amount of resources, e.g., hospital beds, physicians, etc.that are currently available in each area. Second is the number of recoveries, which are often not tested or reported. On the latter, we provide a probable number of active cases based on CDC guidance for the typical duration of mild to severe cases.Reasons for undertaking this work in March of 2020:The popular online maps and dashboards show counts of confirmed cases, deaths, and recoveries by country or administrative sub-region. Comparing the counts of one country to another can only provide a basis for comparison during the initial stages of the outbreak when counts were low and the number of local outbreaks in each country was low. By late March 2020, countries with small populations were being left out of the mainstream news because it was not easy to recognize they had high per capita rates of cases (Switzerland, Luxembourg, Iceland, etc.). Additionally, comparing countries that have had confirmed COVID-19 cases for high numbers of days to countries where the outbreak occurred recently is also a poor basis for comparison.The graphs of confirmed cases and daily increases in cases were fit into a standard size rectangle, though the Y-axis for one country had a maximum value of 50, and for another country 100,000, which potentially misled people interpreting the slope of the curve. Such misleading circumstances affected comparing large population countries to small population counties or countries with low numbers of cases to China which had a large count of cases in the early part of the outbreak. These challenges for interpreting and comparing these graphs represent work each reader must do based on their experience and ability. Thus, we felt it would be a service to attempt to automate the thought process experts would use when visually analyzing these graphs, particularly the most recent tail of the graph, and provide readers with an a resulting synthesis to characterize the state of the pandemic in that country, state, or county.The lack of reliable data for confirmed recoveries and therefore active cases. Merely subtracting deaths from total cases to arrive at this figure progressively loses accuracy after two weeks. The reason is 81% of cases recover after experiencing mild symptoms in 10 to 14 days. Severe cases are 14% and last 15-30 days (based on average days with symptoms of 11 when admitted to hospital plus 12 days median stay, and plus of one week to include a full range of severely affected people who recover). Critical cases are 5% and last 31-56 days. Sources:U.S. CDC. April 3, 2020 Interim Clinical Guidance for Management of Patients with Confirmed Coronavirus Disease (COVID-19). Accessed online. Initial older guidance was also obtained online. Additionally, many people who recover may not be tested, and many who are, may not be tracked due to privacy laws. Thus, the formula used to compute an estimate of active cases is: Active Cases = 100% of new cases in past 14 days + 19% from past 15-25 days + 5% from past 26-49 days - total deaths. On 3/17/2022, the U.S. calculation was adjusted to: Active Cases = 100% of new cases in past 14 days + 6% from past 15-25 days + 3% from past 26-49 days - total deaths. Sources: https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/71/wr/mm7104e4.htm https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#variant-proportions If a new variant arrives and appears to cause higher rates of serious cases, we will roll back this adjustment. We’ve never been inside a pandemic with the ability to learn of new cases as they are confirmed anywhere in the world. After reviewing epidemiological and pandemic scientific literature, three needs arose. We need to specify which portions of the pandemic lifecycle this map cover. The World Health Organization (WHO) specifies six phases. The source data for this map begins just after the beginning of Phase 5: human to human spread and encompasses Phase 6: pandemic phase. Phase six is only characterized in terms of pre- and post-peak. However, these two phases are after-the-fact analyses and cannot ascertained during the event. Instead, we describe (below) a series of five trends for Phase 6 of the COVID-19 pandemic.Choosing terms to describe the five trends was informed by the scientific literature, particularly the use of epidemic, which signifies uncontrolled spread. The five trends are: Emergent, Spreading, Epidemic, Controlled, and End Stage. Not every locale will experience all five, but all will experience at least three: emergent, controlled, and end stage.This layer presents the current trends for the COVID-19 pandemic by country (or appropriate level). There are five trends:Emergent: Early stages of outbreak. Spreading: Early stages and depending on an administrative area’s capacity, this may represent a manageable rate of spread. Epidemic: Uncontrolled spread. Controlled: Very low levels of new casesEnd Stage: No New cases These trends can be applied at several levels of administration: Local: Ex., City, District or County – a.k.a. Admin level 2State: Ex., State or Province – a.k.a. Admin level 1National: Country – a.k.a. Admin level 0Recommend that at least 100,000 persons be represented by a unit; granted this may not be possible, and then the case rate per 100,000 will become more important.Key Concepts and Basis for Methodology: 10 Total Cases minimum threshold: Empirically, there must be enough cases to constitute an outbreak. Ideally, this would be 5.0 per 100,000, but not every area has a population of 100,000 or more. Ten, or fewer, cases are also relatively less difficult to track and trace to sources. 21 Days of Cases minimum threshold: Empirically based on COVID-19 and would need to be adjusted for any other event. 21 days is also the minimum threshold for analyzing the “tail” of the new cases curve, providing seven cases as the basis for a likely trend (note that 21 days in the tail is preferred). This is the minimum needed to encompass the onset and duration of a normal case (5-7 days plus 10-14 days). Specifically, a median of 5.1 days incubation time, and 11.2 days for 97.5% of cases to incubate. This is also driven by pressure to understand trends and could easily be adjusted to 28 days. Source
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Explore Market Research Intellect's Spread Tow Fabric (STF) Market Report, valued at USD 1.2 billion in 2024, with a projected market growth to USD 2.5 billion by 2033, and a CAGR of 9.5% from 2026 to 2033.
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The Supply Chain Visibility Software market is expected to grow from USD X.X million in 2020 to USD X.X million by 2026, at a CAGR of X.X% during the forecast period.
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The coronavirus pandemic has revived interest in the effects of fiscal policy. This paper studies the effects of government spending on default risk in emerging economies. We first build a general equilibrium small open economy model where government spending shocks influence external debt and sovereign bond spreads. We show that external debt piles up and sovereign bond spreads increase following a government spending shock. We then develop VAR evidence based on a panel of 18 countries. We find that in response to a 10% government spending increase, (1) the real effective exchange rate appreciates by 1.0% and the current account to GDP ratio deteriorates by 0.0025 on impact; (2) external debt increases by an average of 3.5% in the year following the shock; and (3) the EMBI Global spread rises by an average of 25 basis points within two years and peaks at 132 basis points 14 quarters after the shock, suggesting a higher sovereign default risk. The empirical results confirm the theoretical predictions from the general equilibrium model.
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Hazelnut Chocolate Spread Market size was valued at USD 40.6 Billion in 2023 and is projected to reach USD 75.1 Billion by 2031, growing at a CAGR of 9.9% during the forecast period 2024-2031.
Global Hazelnut Chocolate Spread Market Drivers
The market for hazelnut chocolate spread is influenced by several key drivers:
Consumer Trends: Growing consumer preference for indulgent and premium food products, along with a rising interest in unique flavor combinations, has fueled the demand for hazelnut chocolate spreads. Health and Wellness Trends: Increasing awareness of health and wellness has led consumers to seek out healthier alternatives. Brands that offer organic, natural, or low-sugar versions of hazelnut chocolate spread are gaining traction. The perception of hazelnuts as a nutritious ingredient contributes to market growth.
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1520 Global import shipment records of Bed Spread with prices, volume & current Buyer's suppliers relationships based on actual Global export trade database.
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The Out-of-Home (OOH) Advertising market is expected to grow from USD X.X million in 2020 to USD X.X million by 2026, at a CAGR of X.X% during the forecast period.
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Non-toxigenic Vibrio cholerae isolates have been found associated with diarrheal disease globally, however, the global picture of non-toxigenic infections is largely unknown. Among non-toxigenic V. cholerae, ctxAB negative, tcpA positive (CNTP) isolates have the highest risk of disease. From 2001 to 2012, 71 infectious diarrhea cases were reported in Hangzhou, China, caused by CNTP serogroup O1 isolates. We sequenced 119 V. cholerae genomes isolated from patients, carriers and the environment in Hangzhou between 2001 and 2012, and compared them with 850 publicly available global isolates. We found that CNTP isolates from Hangzhou belonged to two distinctive lineages, named L3b and L9. Both lineages caused disease over a long time period with usually mild or moderate clinical symptoms. Within Hangzhou, the spread route of the L3b lineage was apparently from rural to urban areas, with aquatic food products being the most likely medium. Both lineages had been previously reported as causing local endemic disease in Latin America, but here we show that global spread of them has occurred, with the most likely origin of L3b lineage being in Central Asia. The L3b lineage has spread to China on at least three occasions. Other spread events, including from China to Thailand and to Latin America were also observed. We fill the missing links in the global spread of the two non-toxigenic serogroup O1 V. cholerae lineages that can cause human infection. The results are important for the design of future disease control strategies: surveillance of V. cholerae should not be limited to ctxAB positive strains.
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364 Active Global Bed Spread buyers list and Global Bed Spread importers directory compiled from actual Global import shipments of Bed Spread.
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Graph and download economic data for Bank Lending Deposit Spread for China (DDEI02CNA156NWDB) from 1982 to 2020 about spread, China, deposits, and loans.
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Global Food Spread market size 2025 was XX Million. Food Spread Industry compound annual growth rate (CAGR) will be XX% from 2025 till 2033.
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1066 Global export shipment records of Cheese Spread with prices, volume & current Buyer's suppliers relationships based on actual Global export trade database.
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The report offers Gluten-Free Chocolate Spread Market Dynamics, Comprises Industry development drivers, challenges, opportunities, threats and limitations. A report also incorporates Cost Trend of products, Mergers & Acquisitions, Expansion, Crucial Suppliers of products, Concentration Rate of Steel Coupling Economy. Global Gluten-Free Chocolate Spread Market Research Report covers Market Effect Factors investigation chiefly included Technology Progress, Consumer Requires Trend, External Environmental Change.
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The global Covid-19 detection kits market size was valued at approximately USD 10.5 billion in 2023 and is projected to reach around USD 17.8 billion by 2032, growing at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 5.5%. The rapid surge in the adoption of Covid-19 detection kits during the pandemic has been one of the primary growth factors for this market. The increasing necessity for early and accurate detection to contain the virus spread, coupled with advancements in diagnostic technologies, continues to drive market expansion.
The market growth is predominantly driven by the ongoing need for efficient and reliable Covid-19 testing solutions. Governments and healthcare institutions worldwide have been heavily investing in diagnostic infrastructure and rapid testing solutions to combat the pandemic. The growing public awareness about the importance of early detection and frequent testing, especially with the emergence of new variants, has significantly bolstered market demand. Furthermore, the rise in diagnostic laboratories and point-of-care testing facilities has made testing more accessible, contributing to the marketÂ’s growth trajectory.
Technological advancements play a crucial role in the market's expansion. Innovations such as rapid antigen tests, high-throughput PCR testing, and the development of portable diagnostic devices have enhanced the efficiency and convenience of Covid-19 detection. These advancements not only reduce the time required for results but also improve accuracy, thereby increasing their adoption rate. Additionally, the integration of artificial intelligence and machine learning in diagnostics is anticipated to further revolutionize the market by offering more precise and faster detection capabilities.
Another significant growth factor is the expanding scope of application across different end-users. Hospitals, diagnostic laboratories, and point-of-care testing centers have been the primary users of these detection kits. However, there is a growing trend of using these kits in non-traditional settings such as schools, corporate offices, and airports, aimed at ensuring public safety and continuity of operations. This diversified application is expected to sustain market demand even as the pandemic situation evolves.
The role of Coronavirus Testing Kits has been pivotal in the global effort to manage and mitigate the spread of the virus. These kits, which include a variety of diagnostic tools, have enabled healthcare providers to quickly identify and isolate infected individuals, thereby reducing transmission rates. The availability of these kits has been crucial in regions with high infection rates, allowing for widespread testing and timely intervention. As the pandemic evolved, the demand for testing kits surged, prompting manufacturers to ramp up production and distribution efforts. This has been particularly important in ensuring that even remote and underserved areas have access to essential testing resources. The continuous improvement in the accuracy and speed of these kits has further solidified their role in the global health response to Covid-19.
Regionally, the market dynamics vary significantly. North America and Europe have been leading in terms of both market size and technological advancements. However, significant growth is also observed in the Asia Pacific region due to large-scale testing initiatives and government support. This regional disparity is influenced by factors such as healthcare infrastructure, government policies, and public awareness levels, shaping a diverse market landscape.
PCR (Polymerase Chain Reaction) kits have been the gold standard in Covid-19 detection due to their high accuracy and reliability. These kits amplify the virus's genetic material, allowing for early and precise detection. The demand for PCR kits surged exponentially during the peak of the pandemic, driven by the need for accurate diagnostic tools. Despite the emergence of other detection methods, PCR kits continue to hold a substantial market share due to their proven efficacy and the ongoing need for confirmatory testing.
The technological advancements in PCR kits have played a pivotal role in their sustained demand. High-throughput PCR systems capable of processing multiple samples simultaneously have significantly reduced the turnaround time for results. Portable and automated PCR devices are a
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Introduction: Severe obesity among children and adolescents has emerged as a public health concern in multiple places around the world.
Methods: We searched the Medline database for articles on severe obesity rates in children published between January 1960 and January 2020. For studies with available prevalence rates for an early and a more recent time period, the relative increase in prevalence was imputed.
Results: In total, 874 publications were identified, of which 38 contained relevant epidemiological data. Rates of severe obesity varied significantly according to age, gender, geographic area, and the definition of severe obesity. The highest rates of class II and III obesity in the US according to the Centers of Disease Control cutoff were 9.5% and 4.5%, respectively. Seventeen studies reported prevalence rates in at least two time periods. Data for 9,190,718 individuals showed a 1.71 (95%CI, 1.53-1.90) greater odds for severe obesity in 2006-2017 (N=5,029,584) vs. 1967-2007 (N=4,161,134). In an analysis limited to studies from 1980s’ with a minimum follow-up of 20 years, a 9.16(95%CI, 7.76-10.80) greater odds for severe obesity in recent vs. earlier time was found. An analysis limited to studies from 2000, with a follow-up of 5-15 years, a 1.09 (95%CI, 0.99-1.20) greater odds was noted when comparing (2011-2017; N=4,991,831) vs. (2000-2011; N=4,134,340).
Conclusion: Severe pediatric obesity is escalating with a marked increase from the1980’s and a slower rate from 2000.
According to our latest research, the global food spreads market size reached USD 28.4 billion in 2024, demonstrating a robust performance across all major regions. The market is projected to expand at a CAGR of 4.7% during the forecast period, reaching an estimated USD 43.2 billion by 2033. This growth is primarily driven by evolving consumer preferences for convenient, nutritious, and diverse food options, alongside the rising demand for both traditional and innovative spread varieties. As per our comprehensive analysis, the food spreads market is poised for consistent expansion, supported by product innovation, health-focused formulations, and the proliferation of premium and plant-based alternatives.
One of the most significant growth factors for the food spreads market is the increasing consumer inclination towards healthy and functional food products. As consumers become more health-conscious, there is a marked shift towards spreads that offer nutritional benefits such as reduced sugar, high protein, added vitamins, and minerals. The demand for plant-based and allergen-free spreads, such as nut butters and dairy alternatives, has seen a notable surge, particularly among millennials and Generation Z. Manufacturers are responding by developing spreads with clean labels, organic certifications, and minimal artificial additives, further propelling market growth. The introduction of functional ingredients like probiotics and omega-3 fatty acids in spreads is also enhancing their appeal among health-focused consumers, making this segment a key driver in the market’s expansion.
Another major factor fueling the growth of the food spreads market is the rapid urbanization and the fast-paced lifestyles of consumers worldwide. The increasing number of working professionals and dual-income households has led to a greater reliance on convenient and ready-to-eat food products. Food spreads, owing to their versatility and ease of use, have become a staple in breakfast routines and quick meal preparations. The trend of on-the-go snacking and the rising popularity of international cuisines have also contributed to the growing consumption of a wide array of spreads, including cheese, chocolate, and fruit-based varieties. Additionally, aggressive marketing campaigns, attractive packaging, and the expansion of distribution channels such as supermarkets, hypermarkets, and online platforms have made food spreads more accessible, further amplifying market penetration.
Innovation in flavors and product formats is another critical driver shaping the food spreads market. Consumers are increasingly seeking unique taste experiences, prompting manufacturers to experiment with exotic flavors, regional specialties, and premium ingredients. The emergence of gourmet and artisanal spreads, as well as limited-edition offerings, has added a new dimension to the market, appealing to discerning consumers who prioritize quality and novelty. Furthermore, collaborations between food spread brands and other food manufacturers, such as bakery and snack companies, are creating new usage occasions and expanding the application scope of spreads. These innovations are not only enhancing consumer engagement but also fostering brand loyalty and repeat purchases.
From a regional perspective, the food spreads market exhibits strong growth across both developed and emerging economies. North America and Europe continue to lead in terms of market share, driven by high per capita consumption, a well-established retail infrastructure, and a mature market for premium and specialty spreads. Meanwhile, the Asia Pacific region is witnessing the fastest growth, supported by rising disposable incomes, urbanization, and the increasing adoption of Western eating habits. Latin America and the Middle East & Africa are also experiencing steady growth, fueled by expanding distribution networks and a growing middle-class population. The regional landscape is characterized by diverse consumer preferences and the presence of both global and local players, making it a dynamic and competitive environment.
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Ivory Coast CI: Interest Rate Spread data was reported at -1.630 % pa in 2016. This records an increase from the previous number of -1.844 % pa for 2015. Ivory Coast CI: Interest Rate Spread data is updated yearly, averaging -3.008 % pa from Dec 2005 (Median) to 2016, with 12 observations. The data reached an all-time high of -0.558 % pa in 2005 and a record low of -3.602 % pa in 2009. Ivory Coast CI: Interest Rate Spread data remains active status in CEIC and is reported by World Bank. The data is categorized under Global Database’s Ivory Coast – Table CI.World Bank.WDI: Interest Rates. Interest rate spread is the interest rate charged by banks on loans to private sector customers minus the interest rate paid by commercial or similar banks for demand, time, or savings deposits. The terms and conditions attached to these rates differ by country, however, limiting their comparability.; ; International Monetary Fund, International Financial Statistics and data files.; Median;
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195 Active Global Spreads made suppliers, manufacturers list and Global Spreads made exporters directory compiled from actual Global export shipments of Spreads made.
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Countries are recording health information on the global spread of COVID-19 using different methods, sometimes changing the rules after a few days. All of them are publishing the number of new individuals infected, recovered and dead individuals, along with some supplementary material. These data are often recorded in a non-uniform manner and do not conform the standard definitions of these variables. In this paper we show that, using data from the first wave of the epidemic (February-June), Kaplan-Meier curves calculated with them could provide useful information on the dynamics of the disease in different countries. We developed our scheme based on the cumulative total number of infected, recovered and dead individuals provided by the countries. We present a robust and simple model to show certain characteristics of the evolution of the dynamic process, showing that the differences in evolution between countries are reflected in the corresponding Kaplan-Meier-type curves. We compare the curves obtained for the most affected countries at that time, with the corresponding interpretation of the properties that distinguish them. The model is revealed as a practical tool for countries in the management of the Healthcare System.
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The global virus diagnostics market size was valued at approximately $15.2 billion in 2023 and is projected to reach $25.3 billion by 2032, growing at a CAGR of 5.6% during the forecast period. This growth is driven by increasing incidences of viral infections, advancements in diagnostic technologies, and rising awareness about early diagnosis and prevention of viral diseases. The market is also being propelled by the ongoing improvements in healthcare infrastructure and the increasing adoption of point-of-care testing.
One of the primary growth factors for the virus diagnostics market is the rising prevalence of viral infections worldwide. Viral outbreaks, such as COVID-19, have heightened the need for reliable and rapid diagnostic solutions. Additionally, increasing global travel and changing weather patterns have contributed to the spread of viruses, further driving the demand for advanced diagnostic tools. The growing focus on early detection and timely treatment of viral diseases has resulted in significant investments in the development of innovative diagnostic technologies, which is expected to fuel market growth.
Technological advancements in virus diagnostics have also played a crucial role in the market's expansion. Innovations such as polymerase chain reaction (PCR), next-generation sequencing (NGS), and rapid diagnostic tests have revolutionized virus detection and characterization. These advanced technologies offer higher sensitivity, specificity, and faster results compared to traditional methods, making them indispensable tools in modern diagnostics. The integration of artificial intelligence and machine learning algorithms in diagnostic software further enhances the accuracy and efficiency of virus detection, contributing to market growth.
Another key factor driving the virus diagnostics market is the increasing awareness and emphasis on preventive healthcare. Governments and healthcare organizations worldwide are implementing various initiatives to promote early diagnosis and screening for viral infections. These initiatives include awareness campaigns, free screening programs, and subsidized diagnostic tests, which encourage more individuals to undergo testing. The rising demand for home-based and point-of-care diagnostic solutions also reflects the growing trend toward preventive healthcare, further boosting the market's growth.
Regionally, the virus diagnostics market is witnessing significant growth across various regions. North America holds the largest market share, driven by the presence of advanced healthcare infrastructure, high healthcare expenditure, and increasing R&D activities. Europe follows closely, with substantial investments in healthcare and robust government initiatives for early diagnosis and disease prevention. The Asia Pacific region is expected to witness the highest growth rate during the forecast period, attributed to the rising prevalence of viral infections, improving healthcare infrastructure, and increasing awareness about early diagnosis. Latin America and the Middle East & Africa regions are also experiencing steady growth, supported by government initiatives and international collaborations to strengthen healthcare systems.
The virus diagnostics market is segmented by product type into kits and reagents, instruments, and software and services. Kits and reagents dominate the market, owing to their critical role in virus detection and diagnosis. These products are essential components of diagnostic tests and are widely used in various healthcare settings, including hospitals, diagnostic laboratories, and point-of-care testing. The continuous development and commercialization of new and improved kits and reagents have significantly enhanced the accuracy and efficiency of virus diagnostics, driving the segment's growth.
Instruments form another crucial segment of the virus diagnostics market. This category includes various diagnostic devices and equipment, such as PCR machines, sequencers, and immunoassay analyzers. The demand for advanced instruments is driven by the need for high-throughput and automated diagnostic solutions that can handle large sample volumes with precision and speed. Technological advancements and the integration of innovative features, such as real-time data analysis and connectivity, have further fueled the growth of the instruments segment.
Software and services are also vital components of the virus diagnostics market. Diagnostic software plays a pivotal role in enhancing th
On March 10, 2023, the Johns Hopkins Coronavirus Resource Center ceased its collecting and reporting of global COVID-19 data. For updated cases, deaths, and vaccine data please visit: World Health Organization (WHO)For more information, visit the Johns Hopkins Coronavirus Resource Center.COVID-19 Trends MethodologyOur goal is to analyze and present daily updates in the form of recent trends within countries, states, or counties during the COVID-19 global pandemic. The data we are analyzing is taken directly from the Johns Hopkins University Coronavirus COVID-19 Global Cases Dashboard, though we expect to be one day behind the dashboard’s live feeds to allow for quality assurance of the data.DOI: https://doi.org/10.6084/m9.figshare.125529863/7/2022 - Adjusted the rate of active cases calculation in the U.S. to reflect the rates of serious and severe cases due nearly completely dominant Omicron variant.6/24/2020 - Expanded Case Rates discussion to include fix on 6/23 for calculating active cases.6/22/2020 - Added Executive Summary and Subsequent Outbreaks sectionsRevisions on 6/10/2020 based on updated CDC reporting. This affects the estimate of active cases by revising the average duration of cases with hospital stays downward from 30 days to 25 days. The result shifted 76 U.S. counties out of Epidemic to Spreading trend and no change for national level trends.Methodology update on 6/2/2020: This sets the length of the tail of new cases to 6 to a maximum of 14 days, rather than 21 days as determined by the last 1/3 of cases. This was done to align trends and criteria for them with U.S. CDC guidance. The impact is areas transition into Controlled trend sooner for not bearing the burden of new case 15-21 days earlier.Correction on 6/1/2020Discussion of our assertion of an abundance of caution in assigning trends in rural counties added 5/7/2020. Revisions added on 4/30/2020 are highlighted.Revisions added on 4/23/2020 are highlighted.Executive SummaryCOVID-19 Trends is a methodology for characterizing the current trend for places during the COVID-19 global pandemic. Each day we assign one of five trends: Emergent, Spreading, Epidemic, Controlled, or End Stage to geographic areas to geographic areas based on the number of new cases, the number of active cases, the total population, and an algorithm (described below) that contextualize the most recent fourteen days with the overall COVID-19 case history. Currently we analyze the countries of the world and the U.S. Counties. The purpose is to give policymakers, citizens, and analysts a fact-based data driven sense for the direction each place is currently going. When a place has the initial cases, they are assigned Emergent, and if that place controls the rate of new cases, they can move directly to Controlled, and even to End Stage in a short time. However, if the reporting or measures to curtail spread are not adequate and significant numbers of new cases continue, they are assigned to Spreading, and in cases where the spread is clearly uncontrolled, Epidemic trend.We analyze the data reported by Johns Hopkins University to produce the trends, and we report the rates of cases, spikes of new cases, the number of days since the last reported case, and number of deaths. We also make adjustments to the assignments based on population so rural areas are not assigned trends based solely on case rates, which can be quite high relative to local populations.Two key factors are not consistently known or available and should be taken into consideration with the assigned trend. First is the amount of resources, e.g., hospital beds, physicians, etc.that are currently available in each area. Second is the number of recoveries, which are often not tested or reported. On the latter, we provide a probable number of active cases based on CDC guidance for the typical duration of mild to severe cases.Reasons for undertaking this work in March of 2020:The popular online maps and dashboards show counts of confirmed cases, deaths, and recoveries by country or administrative sub-region. Comparing the counts of one country to another can only provide a basis for comparison during the initial stages of the outbreak when counts were low and the number of local outbreaks in each country was low. By late March 2020, countries with small populations were being left out of the mainstream news because it was not easy to recognize they had high per capita rates of cases (Switzerland, Luxembourg, Iceland, etc.). Additionally, comparing countries that have had confirmed COVID-19 cases for high numbers of days to countries where the outbreak occurred recently is also a poor basis for comparison.The graphs of confirmed cases and daily increases in cases were fit into a standard size rectangle, though the Y-axis for one country had a maximum value of 50, and for another country 100,000, which potentially misled people interpreting the slope of the curve. Such misleading circumstances affected comparing large population countries to small population counties or countries with low numbers of cases to China which had a large count of cases in the early part of the outbreak. These challenges for interpreting and comparing these graphs represent work each reader must do based on their experience and ability. Thus, we felt it would be a service to attempt to automate the thought process experts would use when visually analyzing these graphs, particularly the most recent tail of the graph, and provide readers with an a resulting synthesis to characterize the state of the pandemic in that country, state, or county.The lack of reliable data for confirmed recoveries and therefore active cases. Merely subtracting deaths from total cases to arrive at this figure progressively loses accuracy after two weeks. The reason is 81% of cases recover after experiencing mild symptoms in 10 to 14 days. Severe cases are 14% and last 15-30 days (based on average days with symptoms of 11 when admitted to hospital plus 12 days median stay, and plus of one week to include a full range of severely affected people who recover). Critical cases are 5% and last 31-56 days. Sources:U.S. CDC. April 3, 2020 Interim Clinical Guidance for Management of Patients with Confirmed Coronavirus Disease (COVID-19). Accessed online. Initial older guidance was also obtained online. Additionally, many people who recover may not be tested, and many who are, may not be tracked due to privacy laws. Thus, the formula used to compute an estimate of active cases is: Active Cases = 100% of new cases in past 14 days + 19% from past 15-25 days + 5% from past 26-49 days - total deaths. On 3/17/2022, the U.S. calculation was adjusted to: Active Cases = 100% of new cases in past 14 days + 6% from past 15-25 days + 3% from past 26-49 days - total deaths. Sources: https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/71/wr/mm7104e4.htm https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#variant-proportions If a new variant arrives and appears to cause higher rates of serious cases, we will roll back this adjustment. We’ve never been inside a pandemic with the ability to learn of new cases as they are confirmed anywhere in the world. After reviewing epidemiological and pandemic scientific literature, three needs arose. We need to specify which portions of the pandemic lifecycle this map cover. The World Health Organization (WHO) specifies six phases. The source data for this map begins just after the beginning of Phase 5: human to human spread and encompasses Phase 6: pandemic phase. Phase six is only characterized in terms of pre- and post-peak. However, these two phases are after-the-fact analyses and cannot ascertained during the event. Instead, we describe (below) a series of five trends for Phase 6 of the COVID-19 pandemic.Choosing terms to describe the five trends was informed by the scientific literature, particularly the use of epidemic, which signifies uncontrolled spread. The five trends are: Emergent, Spreading, Epidemic, Controlled, and End Stage. Not every locale will experience all five, but all will experience at least three: emergent, controlled, and end stage.This layer presents the current trends for the COVID-19 pandemic by country (or appropriate level). There are five trends:Emergent: Early stages of outbreak. Spreading: Early stages and depending on an administrative area’s capacity, this may represent a manageable rate of spread. Epidemic: Uncontrolled spread. Controlled: Very low levels of new casesEnd Stage: No New cases These trends can be applied at several levels of administration: Local: Ex., City, District or County – a.k.a. Admin level 2State: Ex., State or Province – a.k.a. Admin level 1National: Country – a.k.a. Admin level 0Recommend that at least 100,000 persons be represented by a unit; granted this may not be possible, and then the case rate per 100,000 will become more important.Key Concepts and Basis for Methodology: 10 Total Cases minimum threshold: Empirically, there must be enough cases to constitute an outbreak. Ideally, this would be 5.0 per 100,000, but not every area has a population of 100,000 or more. Ten, or fewer, cases are also relatively less difficult to track and trace to sources. 21 Days of Cases minimum threshold: Empirically based on COVID-19 and would need to be adjusted for any other event. 21 days is also the minimum threshold for analyzing the “tail” of the new cases curve, providing seven cases as the basis for a likely trend (note that 21 days in the tail is preferred). This is the minimum needed to encompass the onset and duration of a normal case (5-7 days plus 10-14 days). Specifically, a median of 5.1 days incubation time, and 11.2 days for 97.5% of cases to incubate. This is also driven by pressure to understand trends and could easily be adjusted to 28 days. Source