Some say climate change is the biggest threat of our age while others say it’s a myth based on dodgy science. We are turning some of the data over to you so you can form your own view.

Even more than with other data sets that Kaggle has featured, there’s a huge amount of data cleaning and preparation that goes into putting together a long-time study of climate trends. Early data was collected by technicians using mercury thermometers, where any variation in the visit time impacted measurements. In the 1940s, the construction of airports caused many weather stations to be moved. In the 1980s, there was a move to electronic thermometers that are said to have a cooling bias.

Given this complexity, there are a range of organizations that collate climate trends data. The three most cited land and ocean temperature data sets are NOAA’s MLOST, NASA’s GISTEMP and the UK’s HadCrut.

We have repackaged the data from a newer compilation put together by the Berkeley Earth, which is affiliated with Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory. The Berkeley Earth Surface Temperature Study combines 1.6 billion temperature reports from 16 pre-existing archives. It is nicely packaged and allows for slicing into interesting subsets (for example by country). They publish the source data and the code for the transformations they applied. They also use methods that allow weather observations from shorter time series to be included, meaning fewer observations need to be thrown away.

In this dataset, we have include several files:

Global Land and Ocean-and-Land Temperatures (GlobalTemperatures.csv):

• Date: starts in 1750 for average land temperature and 1850 for max and min land temperatures and global ocean and land temperatures
• LandAverageTemperature: global average land temperature in celsius
• LandAverageTemperatureUncertainty: the 95% confidence interval around the average
• LandMaxTemperature: global average maximum land temperature in celsius
• LandMaxTemperatureUncertainty: the 95% confidence interval around the maximum land temperature
• LandMinTemperature: global average minimum land temperature in celsius
• LandMinTemperatureUncertainty: the 95% confidence interval around the minimum land temperature
• LandAndOceanAverageTemperature: global average land and ocean temperature in celsius
• LandAndOceanAverageTemperatureUncertainty: the 95% confidence interval around the global average land and ocean temperature

Other files include:

• Global Average Land Temperature by Country (GlobalLandTemperaturesByCountry.csv)
• Global Average Land Temperature by State (GlobalLandTemperaturesByState.csv)
• Global Land Temperatures By Major City (GlobalLandTemperaturesByMajorCity.csv)
• Global Land Temperatures By City (GlobalLandTemperaturesByCity.csv)

The raw data comes from the Berkeley Earth data page.

According to an April 2024 survey on climate change conducted in the United States, some ** percent of the respondents claimed they believed that global warming was happening. A much smaller share, ** percent, believed global warming was not happening.

This work combines global warming data from various publications and datasets, creating a new dataset covering a very long period - from the year 1 to 2100.

The dataset created in this work separates the actual records for the 1-2024 period from the forecast for the 2020-2100 period.

The work includes separate sets for land+ocean (GW), land only (GWL), and ocean only (GWO).

The online dataset is available on the site nowagreen.com.

The United States contributed roughly 17 percent of global warming from 1851 to 2023. By contrast, India contributed five percent of warming during this period, despite the country having a far larger population than the United States. In total, G20 countries have contributed approximately three-quarters of global warming to date, while the least developed countries are responsible for just six percent.

A complete description of the dataset is given by Jones et al. (2023). Key information is provided below.

Background

A dataset describing the global warming response to national emissions CO₂, CH₄ and N₂O from fossil and land use sources during 1851-2021.

National CO₂ emissions data are collated from the Global Carbon Project (Andrew and Peters, 2024; Friedlingstein et al., 2024).

National CH₄ and N₂O emissions data are collated from PRIMAP-hist (HISTTP) (Gütschow et al., 2024).

We construct a time series of cumulative CO2-equivalent emissions for each country, gas, and emissions source (fossil or land use). Emissions of CH₄ and N₂O emissions are related to cumulative CO2-equivalent emissions using the Global Warming Potential (GWP*) approach, with best-estimates of the coefficients taken from the IPCC AR6 (Forster et al., 2021).

Warming in response to cumulative CO2-equivalent emissions is estimated using the transient climate response to cumulative carbon emissions (TCRE) approach, with best-estimate value of TCRE taken from the IPCC AR6 (Forster et al., 2021, Canadell et al., 2021). 'Warming' is specifically the change in global mean surface temperature (GMST).

The data files provide emissions, cumulative emissions and the GMST response by country, gas (CO₂, CH₄, N₂O or 3-GHG total) and source (fossil emissions, land use emissions or the total).

Data records: overview

The data records include three comma separated values (.csv) files as described below.

All files are in ‘long’ format with one value provided in the Data column for each combination of the categorical variables Year, Country Name, Country ISO3 code, Gas, and Component columns.

Component specifies fossil emissions, LULUCF emissions or total emissions of the gas.

Gas specifies CO₂, CH₄, N₂O or the three-gas total (labelled 3-GHG).

Country ISO3 codes are specifically the unique ISO 3166-1 alpha-3 codes of each country.

Data records: specifics

Data are provided relative to 2 reference years (denoted ref_year below): 1850 and 1991. 1850 is a mutual first year of data spanning all input datasets. 1991 is relevant because the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change was operationalised in 1992.

EMISSIONS_ANNUAL_{ref_year-20}-2023.csv: Data includes annual emissions of CO₂ (Pg CO₂ year^-1), CH₄ (Tg CH₄ year^-1) and N₂O (Tg N₂O year^-1) during the period ref_year-20 to 2023. The Data column provides values for every combination of the categorical variables. Data are provided from ref_year-20 because these data are required to calculate GWP* for CH₄.

EMISSIONS_CUMULATIVE_CO2e100_{ref_year+1}-2023.csv: Data includes the cumulative CO₂ equivalent emissions in units Pg CO₂-e₁₀₀ during the period ref_year+1 to 2023 (i.e. since the reference year). The Data column provides values for every combination of the categorical variables.

GMST_response_{ref_year+1}-2023.csv: Data includes the change in global mean surface temperature (GMST) due to emissions of the three gases in units °C during the period ref_year+1 to 2023 (i.e. since the reference year). The Data column provides values for every combination of the categorical variables.

Accompanying Code

Code is available at: https://github.com/jonesmattw/National_Warming_Contributions .

The code requires Input.zip to run (see README at the GitHub link).

Further info: Country Groupings

We also provide estimates of the contributions of various country groupings as defined by the UNFCCC:

• Annex I countries (number of countries, n = 42)
• Annex II countries (n = 23)
• economies in transition (EITs; n = 15)
• the least developed countries (LDCs; n = 47)
• the like-minded developing countries (LMDC; n = 24).

And other country groupings:

• the organisation for economic co-operation and development (OECD; n = 38)
• the European Union (EU27 post-Brexit)
• the Brazil, South Africa, India and China (BASIC) group.

See COUNTRY_GROUPINGS.xlsx for the lists of countries in each group.

Maximum temperature and rainfall observed data files were downloaded from the IRI Data Library as well as the model predicted 850-to-500 geopotential thickness fields (used to predict maximum temperature over southern Africa) and 850 circulation data fields (predictor for rainfall). Model Output statistics in CPT - climate predictability tool, was set up using CCA - canonical correlation analysis to produce retroactive forecasts. MATLAB was further utilized to post-process / fine-tune the output from CPT and to produce other results. The researcher used the output from the global climate model to develop a statistical model for maximum temperature seasonal forecasts for Southern Africa.

Global warming vs climate change

Many people use these two terms interchangeably, but we think it’s important to acknowledge their differences. Global warming is an increase in the Earth’s average surface temperature from human-made greenhouse gas emissions. On the other hand, climate change refers to the long-term changes in the Earth’s climate, or a region on Earth, and includes more than just the average surface temperature. For example, variations in the amount of snow, sea levels, and sea ice can all be consequences of climate change.

Content

Worldwide Climate Change & Global Warming keyword / topic search in Google Search Engine from 2004 - present

Acknowledgements

Google Trends Lab

Context

Data description

The FAOSTAT Temperature Change domain disseminates statistics of mean surface temperature change by country, with annual updates. The current dissemination covers the period 1961–2023. Statistics are available for monthly, seasonal and annual mean temperature anomalies, i.e., temperature change with respect to a baseline climatology, corresponding to the period 1951–1980. The standard deviation of the temperature change of the baseline methodology is also available. Data are based on the publicly available GISTEMP data, the Global Surface Temperature Change data distributed by the National Aeronautics and Space Administration Goddard Institute for Space Studies (NASA-GISS).

Content

Statistical concepts and definitions

Statistical standards: Data in the Temperature Change domain are not an explicit SEEA variable. Nonetheless, country and regional calculations employ a definition of “Land area” consistent with SEEA Land Use definitions, specifically SEEA CF Table 5.11 “Land Use Classification” and SEEA AFF Table 4.8, “Physical asset account for land use.” The Temperature Change domain of the FAOSTAT Agri-Environmental Indicators section is compliant with the Framework for the Development of Environmental Statistics (FDES 2013), contributing to FDES Component 1: Environmental Conditions and Quality, Sub-component 1.1: Physical Conditions, Topic 1.1.1: Atmosphere, climate and weather, Core set/ Tier 1 statistics a.1.

Statistical unit: Countries and Territories.

Statistical population: Countries and Territories.

Reference area: Area of all the Countries and Territories of the world. In 2019: 190 countries and 37 other territorial entities.

Code - reference area: FAOSTAT, M49, ISO2 and ISO3 (http://www.fao.org/faostat/en/#definitions). FAO Global Administrative Unit Layer (GAUL National level – reference year 2014. FAO Geospatial data repository GeoNetwork. Permanent address: http://www.fao.org:80/geonetwork?uuid=f7e7adb0-88fd-11da-a88f-000d939bc5d8.

Code - Number of countries/areas covered: In 2019: 190 countries and 37 other territorial entities.

Time coverage: 1961-2023

Periodicity: Monthly, Seasonal, Yearly

Base period: 1951-1980

Unit of Measure: Celsius degrees °C

Reference period: Months, Seasons, Meteorological year

Acknowledgements

Documentation on methodology: Details on the methodology can be accessed at the Related Documents section of the Temperature Change (ET) domain in the Agri-Environmental Indicators section of FAOSTAT.

Quality documentation: For more information on the methods, coverage, accuracy and limitations of the Temperature Change dataset please refer to the NASA GISTEMP website: https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/

                                                                          Source: http://www.fao.org/faostat/en/#data/ET/metadata

Inspiration

Climate change is one of the important issues that face the world in this technological era. The best proof of this situation is the historical temperature change. You can investigate if any hope there is for stopping global warming :)

• Can you find any correlation between temperature change and any other variable? (Using ISO3 codes for merging any other countries' data sets possible.)

• Prediction of temperature change: there is also an overall world temperature change in the country list as 'World'.

This repository contains data used in figures in Samset et al. 2024, Communications Earth & Environmenthttps://www.nature.com/articles/s43247-024-01637-8https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-024-01637-8Obs_GMST_GreensFunctionFiltered.zip:Global mean surface temperature data series for four observational reconstructions.Key fields:- tas_aa: Global mean surface temperature anomaly, relative to 1850-1899 or 1880-1899, depending on the coverage.- tas_fbr_aa: As tas_aa, but with SST pattern filering applied, as documented in the publicationSimilarly formatted CMIP6 data are available in a separate archive:Underlying data for "Steady global surface warming from 1973 to 2022 but increased warming rate after 1990" (10.1038/s43247-023-01061-4)

As part of this national strategy, the Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports, Science and Technology (MEXT) had launched a 5-year (FY2007 - 2011) initiative called the Innovative Program of Climate Change Projection for the 21st Century (KAKUSHIN Program), using the Earth Simulator (ES) to address emerging research challenges, such as those derived from the outcomes of the MEXT's Kyosei Project (FY2002 - 2006), that had made substantial contributions to the Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). The KAKUSHIN Program was expected to further contribute to the Fifth Assessment Report (AR5).

The research items include the advancement and forecasting of global warming models, the quantification and reduction of model uncertainty, and the evaluation of the impacts of natural disasters based on forecast information. Much of the data submitted to CMIP5 from Japan were generated under this KAKUSHIN program using the global climate models and the Earth system models developed in Japan. This dataset is the result of using the Earth System Model MIROC-ESM.

All CMIP5 data are collected, managed, and published by the Earth System Grid Federation (ESGF), and DIAS serves as an ESGF node. All public datasets, including this dataset, are available from ESGF. For information on how to use these datasets, including this dataset, see "CMIP5 Data - Getting Started" (URL is available in the online information below). Please note that an ESGF account is required to download the CMIP5 data.

Because the terms of use for CMIP5 data are different from CMIP6 in many respects, please check the following Terms of Use carefully: https://pcmdi.llnl.gov/mips/cmip5/terms-of-use.html Currently, all CMIP5 data, including this dataset, is classified as "unrestricted" within it.

According to an April 2024 survey on climate change conducted in the United States, some 36 percent of respondents thought that global warming is affecting the weather a lot. Only eight percent of respondents claimed that global warming was affecting the weather just a little.

This data-set was collected to replicate the findings of Schuldt et al. (2011). It contains data from the UK, USA, and Australia collected between 2nd of January 2018 and the 29th of April 2019. It measures individuals political party, and belief in environmental phenomena.

Scientists state unequivocally that the earth is warming. Climate change is happening, it is caused in large part by human activity, and it will have many serious and potentially damaging effects in the decades ahead. Greenhouse gas emissions from cars, power plants, and other human activities—rather than natural variations in climate—are the primary cause of contemporary global warming. Due largely to the combustion of fossil fuels, atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide (CO2), the principal greenhouse gas, are at a level unequaled for at least 800,000 years. The greenhouse gases from human activities are trapping more of the sun’s heat in the earth’s atmosphere, resulting in warming. Over the last century, average global temperatures rose by more than 1°F and some regions warmed by as much as 4°F. The oceans have also warmed, especially in the upper layers.Available onlineCall Number: [EL]Physical Description: 86 p.

A simulation of projected changes in annual mean temperatures from the period 1975 to 1995 to the period 2080 to 2100 is shown on this map. Geographically, the temperature changes would not be evenly distributed. According to this projection, the Arctic would experience the greatest annual mean warming followed by other areas in northern Canada and central and northern Asia. Temperatures generally increase as the century progresses as a consequence of the projected increase in greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere. The results are based on climate change simulations made with the Coupled Global Climate Model developed by Environment Canada.

This dataset contains the tweet ids of 39,622,026 tweets related to climate change. They were collected between September 21, 2017 and May 17, 2019 from the Twitter API using Social Feed Manager. There is a gap in data collection between January 7, 2019 and April 17, 2019. Tweets were collected using the POST statuses/filter method of the Twitter Stream API, using the track parameter with the following keywords: #climatechange, #climatechangeisreal, #actonclimate, #globalwarming, #climatechangehoax, #climatedeniers, #climatechangeisfalse, #globalwarminghoax, #climatechangenotreal, climate change, global warming, climate hoax Because of the size of the collection, the list of identifiers is split into files of 10 million lines each, with a tweet identifier on each line. There is a README.txt file containing additional documentation on how the tweets were collected. The GET statuses/lookup method supports retrieving the complete tweet for a tweet id (known as hydrating). Tools such as Twarc or Hydrator can be used to hydrate tweets. Per Twitter’s Developer Policy, tweet ids may be publicly shared for academic purposes; tweets may not. Questions about this dataset can be sent to sfm@gwu.edu. George Washington University researchers should contact us for access to the tweets.

[Updated 28/01/25 to fix an issue in the ‘Lower’ values, which were not fully representing the range of uncertainty. ‘Median’ and ‘Higher’ values remain unchanged. The size of the change varies by grid cell and fixed period/global warming levels but the average difference between the 'lower' values before and after this update is 0.09°C.]What does the data show? This dataset shows the change in summer average temperature for a range of global warming levels, including the recent past (2001-2020), compared to the 1981-2000 baseline period. Here, summer is defined as June-July-August. Note, as the values in this dataset are averaged over a season they do not represent possible extreme conditions.The dataset uses projections of daily average air temperature from UKCP18 which are averaged over the summer period to give values for the 1981-2000 baseline, the recent past (2001-2020) and global warming levels. The warming levels available are 1.5°C, 2.0°C, 2.5°C, 3.0°C and 4.0°C above the pre-industrial (1850-1900) period. The recent past value and global warming level values are stated as a change (in °C) relative to the 1981-2000 value. This enables users to compare summer average temperature trends for the different periods. In addition to the change values, values for the 1981-2000 baseline (corresponding to 0.51°C warming) and recent past (2001-2020, corresponding to 0.87°C warming) are also provided. This is summarised in the table below.PeriodDescription1981-2000 baselineAverage temperature (°C) for the period2001-2020 (recent past)Average temperature (°C) for the period2001-2020 (recent past) changeTemperature change (°C) relative to 1981-20001.5°C global warming level changeTemperature change (°C) relative to 1981-20002°C global warming level changeTemperature change (°C) relative to 1981-20002.5°C global warming level changeTemperature change (°C) relative to 1981-20003°C global warming level changeTemperature change (°C) relative to 1981-20004°C global warming level changeTemperature change (°C) relative to 1981-2000What is a global warming level?The Summer Average Temperature Change is calculated from the UKCP18 regional climate projections using the high emissions scenario (RCP 8.5) where greenhouse gas emissions continue to grow. Instead of considering future climate change during specific time periods (e.g. decades) for this scenario, the dataset is calculated at various levels of global warming relative to the pre-industrial (1850-1900) period. The world has already warmed by around 1.1°C (between 1850–1900 and 2011–2020), whilst this dataset allows for the exploration of greater levels of warming. The global warming levels available in this dataset are 1.5°C, 2°C, 2.5°C, 3°C and 4°C. The data at each warming level was calculated using a 21 year period. These 21 year periods are calculated by taking 10 years either side of the first year at which the global warming level is reached. This time will be different for different model ensemble members. To calculate the value for the Summer Average Temperature Change, an average is taken across the 21 year period.We cannot provide a precise likelihood for particular emission scenarios being followed in the real world future. However, we do note that RCP8.5 corresponds to emissions considerably above those expected with current international policy agreements. The results are also expressed for several global warming levels because we do not yet know which level will be reached in the real climate as it will depend on future greenhouse emission choices and the sensitivity of the climate system, which is uncertain. Estimates based on the assumption of current international agreements on greenhouse gas emissions suggest a median warming level in the region of 2.4-2.8°C, but it could either be higher or lower than this level.What are the naming conventions and how do I explore the data?These data contain a field for each warming level and the 1981-2000 baseline. They are named 'tas summer change' (change in air 'temperature at surface'), the warming level or baseline, and 'upper' 'median' or 'lower' as per the description below. e.g. 'tas summer change 2.0 median' is the median value for summer for the 2.0°C warming level. Decimal points are included in field aliases but not in field names, e.g. 'tas summer change 2.0 median' is named 'tas_summer_change_20_median'. To understand how to explore the data, refer to the New Users ESRI Storymap. Please note, if viewing in ArcGIS Map Viewer, the map will default to ‘tas summer change 2.0°C median’ values.What do the 'median', 'upper', and 'lower' values mean?Climate models are numerical representations of the climate system. To capture uncertainty in projections for the future, an ensemble, or group, of climate models are run. Each ensemble member has slightly different starting conditions or model set-ups. Considering all of the model outcomes gives users a range of plausible conditions which could occur in the future.For this dataset, the model projections consist of 12 separate ensemble members. To select which ensemble members to use, the Summer Average Temperature Change was calculated for each ensemble member and they were then ranked in order from lowest to highest for each location.The ‘lower’ fields are the second lowest ranked ensemble member. The ‘higher’ fields are the second highest ranked ensemble member. The ‘median’ field is the central value of the ensemble.This gives a median value, and a spread of the ensemble members indicating the range of possible outcomes in the projections. This spread of outputs can be used to infer the uncertainty in the projections. The larger the difference between the lower and higher fields, the greater the uncertainty.‘Lower’, ‘median’ and ‘upper’ are also given for the baseline period as these values also come from the model that was used to produce the projections. This allows a fair comparison between the model projections and recent past. Useful linksFor further information on the UK Climate Projections (UKCP).Further information on understanding climate data within the Met Office Climate Data Portal.

(1) This is the dataset simulated by high resolution atmospheric model of which horizontal resolution is 60km-mesh over the globe (GCM), and 20km over Japan and surroundings (RCM), respetively. The climate of the latter half of the 20th century is simulated for 6000 years (3000 years for the Japan area), and the climates 1.5 K (*2), 2 K (*1) and 4 K warmer than the pre-industrial climate are simulated for 1566, 3240 and 5400 years, respectivley, to see the effect of global warming. (2) Huge number of ensembles enable not only with statistics but also with high accuracy to estimate the future change of extreme events such as typoons and localized torrential downpours. In addtion, this dataset provides the highly reliable information on the impact of natural disasters due to climate change on future societies. (3) This dataset provides the climate projections which adaptations against global warming are based on in various fields, for example, disaster prevention, urban planning, environmetal protection, and so on. It would realize the global warming adaptations consistent not only among issues but also among regions. (4) Total size of this dataset is 3 PB (3 x the 15th power of 10 bytes).

(*1) Datasets of the climates 2K warmer than the pre-industorial climate is available on 10th August, 2018. (*2) Datasets of the climates 1.5K warmer than the pre-industorial climate is available on 8th February, 2022.

Data and code for the study titled 'Global warming vs. climate change frames. Revisiting framing effects based on new experimental evidence collected in 30 European countries '

Replication data.. Visit https://dataone.org/datasets/sha256%3Af9d6261a6f56d7ba355f0c322b80367a9de35ef5d3f91801f83fa03acc88af23 for complete metadata about this dataset.

Data supporting the results presented in the article Milovac et al: "Regional scaling of sea surface temperature with global warming levels in the CMIP6 ensemble".

1. data_raw.tar contains annual and seasonal, global and regional (i.e. over ocean IPCC regions and ocean biomes), mean sea surface and near surface temperatures, calculated for the selected 26 CMIP6 global climate models (GCMs) at low resolution (listed in the file models_low_res.txt) and 1 GCM at high resolution (listed in the file models_high_res.txt). The original files, downloaded from one of the ESGF data centers, were all interpolated onto a common grid with the 1-degree resolution for low-resolution output and the 0.25-degree resolution for high-resolution output. The output was generated using the cdo tool (https://zenodo.org/record/7112925).

2. data_txt.tar contains the results used to obtain all the figures given in the article.