This graph show how interest rates hikes by the U.S. Federal Reserve affect gold's price. While gold underperforms during the period leading up to rate hikes, its performance improves during the year after the interest rates increase.

Context

Real time prices in the diamond market are reflected by the so-called Diamond Financial Index (DFX) which is available on a daily base since April 2018.

As diamond prices are influenced by many factors like trade barriers, political instability, operational disruptions like mine closures or economic downturns resp. upturns, it is not an easy task to predict the development of future diamond prices.

To predict prices, indicators are needed. Empirical findings support the argument that diamond prices respond to economic downturns resp. upturns and are therefore also correlated with inflation rates and interest rates resp. fed rates. Also gold prices could be an indicator for the development of diamond prices.

Because the US are playing quite a big role in the diamond business, the following US rates can be considered:

o inflation rate (10-year breakeven inflation rate) o interest rate (10-year treasury inflation-indexed security, constant maturity, risk-free) o fed rate (effective federal funds rate)

Moreover, gold prices could be considered as an indicator.

Content

The following five datasets have been downloaded from the following websites and merged to one dataset:

o diamond price (DFX): https://www.investing.com/indices/get-diamonds-general o inflation rate: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/T10YIE o interest rate: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DFII10 o fed rate: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DFF o gold price: https://www.boerse-online.de/rohstoffe/historisch/goldpreis/usd/

To merge the datasets, date has been used as index. A few missing values in the datasets have been filled in by copying the value from the day before (see file "diamond_data_merged_with_other_variables.csv").

Please note: I added one additional version of the dataset where ID is used as index (not date). Missing values are not filled in in this version (see file "df_diamond_data_merged_with_other_variables.csv"). I would recommend using the dataset "diamond_data_merged_with_other_variables.csv" with date as index.

Inspiration

The following questions could be answered:

o How did diamond prices, inflation rate, interest rate, fed rate and gold price develop since 2018? o How is the correlation between diamond prices and inflation rate, interest rate, fed rate and gold prices? o How will diamond prices develop in the future?

When it comes to price prediction machine learning has been successful in predicting stock market prices through a host of different time series models. There is also a limited but quite restrictive application in predicting cryptocurrency prices. Often neural networks like LSTM (Long Short Term Memory) are used. LSTM oder other models, e.g. ARIMA, could be also used here.

Gold fell to 4,199.97 USD/t.oz on December 2, 2025, down 0.75% from the previous day. Over the past month, Gold's price has risen 4.93%, and is up 58.92% compared to the same time last year, according to trading on a contract for difference (CFD) that tracks the benchmark market for this commodity. Gold - values, historical data, forecasts and news - updated on December of 2025.

Gold Loan Market Market size is growing at a moderate pace with substantial growth rates over the last few years and is estimated that the market will grow significantly in the forecasted period i.e. 2024 to 2030.

Global Gold Loan Market Drivers

The market drivers for the Gold Loan Market can be influenced by various factors. These may include:

Easy Access to Credit: Gold loans provide quick access to funds without extensive credit checks, making them attractive for individuals with limited credit history or poor credit scores. Liquidity Solution: Gold loans offer a liquid asset (gold) as collateral, providing lenders with security and borrowers with immediate cash flow solutions. Flexible Loan Terms: Borrowers can typically choose flexible repayment terms and loan amounts based on the value of the gold pledged as collateral. Lower Interest Rates: Compared to unsecured loans, gold loans often have lower interest rates due to the collateralization of the loan, making them a cost-effective borrowing option. Minimal Documentation: The documentation requirements for gold loans are generally simpler and less stringent compared to other types of loans, reducing processing time and hassle for borrowers. Financial Inclusion: Gold loans cater to a wide range of borrowers, including those in rural and semi-urban areas who may not have access to traditional banking services. Emergency Funding: Gold loans are often used for emergencies, such as medical expenses, business needs, or sudden financial crises, providing a quick source of funds. Stable Asset Value: Gold is considered a stable and valuable asset, providing assurance to lenders and reducing the risk associated with loan defaults. Cultural and Social Factors: In many cultures, gold is considered a valuable asset and holds sentimental value, encouraging its use as collateral for loans. Regulatory Support: Favorable regulatory frameworks and government policies supporting gold-backed lending practices can stimulate growth in the gold loan market.

Explore the factors affecting gold prices, including inflation, interest rates, supply and demand dynamics, currency fluctuations, and geopolitical events, and learn how these elements influence gold's value in the global market.

Historical dataset of the 12 month LIBOR rate back to 1986. The London Interbank Offered Rate is the average interest rate at which leading banks borrow funds from other banks in the London market. LIBOR is the most widely used global "benchmark" or reference rate for short term interest rates.

Between January 1971 and May 2025, gold had average annual returns of **** percent, which was only slightly more than the return of commodities, with an annual average of around eight percent. The annual return of gold was over ** percent in 2024. What is the total global demand for gold? The global demand for gold remains robust owing to its historical importance, financial stability, and cultural appeal. During economic uncertainty, investors look for a safe haven, while emerging markets fuel jewelry demand. A distinct contrast transpired during COVID-19, when the global demand for gold experienced a sharp decline in 2020 owing to a reduction in consumer spending. However, the subsequent years saw an increase in demand for the precious metal. How much gold is produced worldwide? The production of gold depends mainly on geological formations, market demand, and the cost of production. These factors have a significant impact on the discovery, extraction, and economic viability of gold mining operations worldwide. In 2024, the worldwide production of gold was expected to reach *** million ounces, and it is anticipated that the rate of growth will increase as exploration technologies improve, gold prices rise, and mining practices improve.

Gold prices, recently at $3,057.31, may drop to $1,820 due to supply-demand dynamics, interest rates, and new mines, says Morningstar's David Sekera.

1. Size: 3,904 rows × 47 columns
2. Content: The dataset contains financial market data related to gold price prediction. It includes:
3. Stock market indices (S&P 500, Nasdaq)
4. Precious metal prices (Gold, Silver, Platinum, Palladium)
5. Economic indicators (Interest rates, GDP, CPI)
6. Foreign exchange rates (USD/CHF, EUR/USD)

Oil price data Usage: Suitable for gold price regression analysis, financial forecasting, and market trend analysis.

As of April 2024, WisdomTree Core Physical Gold was the leading gold back exchange-traded commodity (ETC) listed on the London stock exchange, providing a return of ** percent on euro investments annually. Invesco Physical Gold A followed closely in second place, providing a return of ***** percent on investments made in euros. What is an exchange-traded commodity? An exchange-traded commodity (ETC) is a commodity such as silver, wheat, oats, and gold traded on the stock exchange. Unlike exchange-traded funds (ETFs) which allows investment in a basket of securities, ETCs allow investment in a single commodity. Gold-backed ETCs aim to track the spot price of gold. This results in the price of the ETC moving up and down in correlation with the underlying gold price. The annual return rate The return on investment (ROI) is a way to measure the performance of an investment. The ROI is calculated by dividing the amount gained or lost from an investment by the original invested amount. This number is then represented as a percentage. Different gains and losses can be generated on foreign investments due to changes in the value of the security in foreign markets. If the local home currency of an investor is rising in value, this leads to lower returns on foreign investments. Similarly, a decreasing home currency will increase the returns on foreign investments. The difference in currency performance, inflation levels in the home market or abroad, and interest rates are all factors that can lead to differing ROI rates.

Gold prices surged to their highest in a year amid global market volatility and a weakened US dollar, influenced by Trump's new import tariffs affecting major trading partners.

As of September 2023, NBFCs dominated the gold loan market with a ** percent market share. Banks, on the other hand, held only ** percent of market share. Indian population has traditionally relied on gold as a means of investment. The country is the second-largest importer of gold in the world. Banks and non-banking financial companies are currently the major players in offering secured loans with gold as collateral. Process of taking a gold loan To apply for a gold loan, a borrower usually approaches these institutions, which is followed by a purity check of gold to evaluate its market value. A borrower usually keeps their gold ranging from 18 to 24 carats with the lender for getting credit. The interest rates on gold loans can range between 7.35 percent to 29 percent per annum, depending on the bank. Gold’s present market value called the loan-to-value (LTV) ratio, usually fixed by the Reserve bank of India determines the amount a consumer is eligible to get against gold. New digital players Online gold loan options are increasingly being offered; however, a customer is still required to visit the bank or NBFC branch for depositing the gold and its purity check. But a large part of the gold loan market is still unorganized, leaving customers exposed to high-interest rates. Certain fintech startups are now entering the market space offering services with lower interest, flexible EMIs, and door-to-door delivery and pickup. The entry of new players in this traditional marketplace is expected to increase the penetration rate of the gold loan market.

Gold is the most popular precious metal in the investment industry. The rate of return for gold investments fluctuated significantly during the period from 2002 to 2024 but generated positive returns in most years of the observed period. The return of gold as an investment reached almost ** percent in 2024, one of the highest recorded. Why is gold valuable? Gold is a precious metal with several practical uses, particularly in technology. For example, NASA uses gold to improve its lasers and protect sensitive things in space, including a part of the visor for its astronauts. However, a large share of the demand for gold worldwide is as an investment, particularly by central banks. Gold serves the purpose of an alternative to currency because it is relatively scarce but still has enough mine production to serve the financial sector. Gold as an investment Under the Bretton Woods agreement after World War II, the world’s major currencies were tied to the value of gold. This system, called the Gold Standard, ended in 1971. Still, most countries maintain significant gold reserves. Due to this history and the overall faith in the value of gold, the average gold price tends to increase in times of recession, making it an attractive investment in uncertain times.

The global gold loan market is projected to reach USD 1,504.3 million by 2033, exhibiting a CAGR of 5.7% during the forecast period. The growing demand for gold loans as a secure and flexible financing option is primarily driving the market growth. Gold loans offer several advantages over traditional loans, including lower interest rates, higher loan-to-value (LTV) ratios, and minimal documentation requirements. The market is also witnessing increasing demand from the unbanked population, particularly in developing countries, who often lack access to formal financial services. The increasing preference for gold as an investment instrument is another major factor contributing to the growth of the gold loan market. Gold is considered a safe haven asset during economic uncertainty, and investors often turn to gold loans to raise funds without selling their physical gold holdings. The rising price of gold is further expected to drive the demand for gold loans, as borrowers can pledge less gold to secure the same amount of loan. The growing popularity of digital gold lending platforms is also expected to boost market growth by making gold loans more accessible and convenient for consumers. Market Size and Growth: The global gold loan market is valued at over USD 500 billion and is projected to grow at a CAGR of 5% over the next five years. This growth is attributed to factors such as the rising demand for gold as a safe haven asset, increasing gold prices, and the growing popularity of gold loans as a source of financing.

This dataset provides values for INTEREST RATE reported in several countries. The data includes current values, previous releases, historical highs and record lows, release frequency, reported unit and currency.

Permutable AI’s Gold Intelligence dataset (XAU) tracks the drivers of gold prices, from Federal Reserve interest rate policy and inflation trends to central bank buying and geopolitical risk. Advanced story signal detection identifies new narratives, sentiment shifts, and sustained coverage that move gold markets. With structured historical data and real-time sentiment analytics, traders and institutions can forecast gold price movements and hedge risk effectively. Delivered through the Co-Pilot API, gold market intelligence is available with millisecond latency.

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The raw data that is used in this dataset is the basic OHLC time series dataset for a gold market of the last 20 years collected and verified from different exchanges. This dataset contains over 8677 daily candle prices (rows) and in order to make it wealthy, extra datasets were merged with it to provide more details to each data frame. The sub-datasets contain historical economic information such as interest rates, inflation rates, and others that are highly related and affecting the gold market movement.

Raw dataset:

Time Range: 1988-08-01 to 2023-11-10 Number of data entries: 4050 Number of features: 4 (open, high, low, close OHLC daily candle price)

What are done to prepare this dataset : 1. Starting Exploratory Data Analysis (EDA) for all the raw datasets. 2. Find and fill in missing days. 3. Merge all the datasets into one master dataset based on the time index. 4. Verify the merge process. 5. Check and remove Duplicates. 6. Check and fill in missing values. 7. Including the basic technical indicators and price moving averages. 8. Outliers Inspection and treatment by different methods. 9. Adding targets. 10. Feature Analysis to identify the importance of each feature. 11. Final check.

After data preparation and feature engineering:

Time Range: 1999-12-30 to 2023-10-01

Number of data entries: 8677

Number of featuers: 28

Features list: open, high, low, close (OHLC daily candle price) dxy_open, dxy_close, dxy_high, dxy_low, fred_fedfunds, usintr, usiryy (Ecnomic inducators) RSI, MACD, MACD_signal, MACD_hist, ADX, CCI (Technical indicators) ROC SMA_10, SMA_20, EMA_10, EMA_20, SMA_50, EMA_50, SMA_100, SMA_200, EMA_100, EMA_200 (Moving avrages)

Targets List: next_1_day_price next_3_day_price next_7_day_price next_30_day_price next_1_day_Price_Change next_3_day_Price_Change next_7_day_Price_Change next_30_day_Price_Change next_30_day_Price_Change next_1_day_price_direction( Up, Same ,Down) next_3_day_price_direction( Up, Same ,Down) next_7_day_price_direction( Up, Same ,Down) next_30_day_price_direction( Up, Same ,Down)

Abbreviations of Features: dxy = US Dollar Index fred_fedfunds= Effective Federal Funds Rate usintr= US Interest Rate usiryy= US Inflation Rate YOY RSI= Relative Strength Index MACD= Moving Average Convergence Divergence ADX= Avrerage Directional Index CCI=Commodity Channel Index ROC= Rate of Change SMA= Simple Moving Average EMA= Exponential Moving Average

Explore the intricacies of the spot price of gold, its role as a safe haven investment, and the factors influencing its value such as inflation, currency strength, geopolitical tensions, interest rates, and supply-demand dynamics. Learn why understanding this real-time market price is essential for investors globally.

This January marked the 150th anniversary of a major event in American history: the discovery of gold at Sutter’s Mill, California. Fittingly, gold made news again this year by dropping past $300 an ounce to hit its lowest price in nearly two decades. While some of the subject’s interest undoubtedly springs from an almost voyeuristic fascination with the precious metal itself, gold prices are nonetheless legitimate news, since they are considered harbingers of stability or future inflation. Careful observers’ acquaintance with the gold market’s particular twists, turns, and idiosyncrasies gives them a more reasoned understanding of its uses as an economic indicator. This Economic Commentary takes the confluence of historical and current events as an excuse to refine our understanding of gold, gold prices, and inflation.

This data is the month-end data of the time series from January 2009 to March 2023 for four commodities such as gold soybean crude oil and natural gas. These time series data can be used to estimate the market's short-term interest rate along with the Vasicek model and joint radiation term structure model., , , # Short-term interest rate estimates based on futures markets

Abstract: This data is the month-end data of the time series from January 2009 to March 2023 for four commodities such as gold soybean crude oil and natural gas. These time series data can be used to estimate the market short-term interest rate together with the Vasicek model and the joint radiation term structure model

Usage: The data in Table 1 and Table 2 can be read into the established interest rate estimation model code using python to estimate the short-term interest rate

Data structure: month-end time series data; The xlsx tables mainly include Table 1 and Table 2

Source: Bloomberg Data Terminal

Specific variable definition:

• The gold futures price is the futures price data from the end of January 2009 to the end of March 2023, in ounces per dollar
• Soybean futures prices are futures price data from the end of January 2009 to the end of March 2023, in tons per dollar
• Natural gas futures price...