The Emerging Markets Bond Index (EMBI), commonly known as "riesgo país" in Spanish speaking countries, is a weighted financial benchmark that measures the interest rates paid each day by a selected portfolio of government bonds from emerging countries. It is measured in base points, which reflect the difference between the return rates paid by emerging countries' government bonds and those offered by U.S. Treasury bills. This difference is defined as "spread". Which Latin American country has the highest risk bonds? As of September 19, 2024, Venezuela was the Latin American country with the greatest financial risk and highest expected returns of government bonds, with an EMBI spread of around 254 percent. This means that the annual interest rates paid by Venezuela's sovereign debt titles were estimated to be exponentially higher than those offered by the U.S. Treasury. On the other hand, Brazil's EMBI reached 207 index points at the end of August 2023. In 2023, Venezuela also had the highest average EMBI in Latin America, exceeding 40,000 base points. The impact of COVID-19 on emerging market bonds The economic crisis spawned by the coronavirus pandemic heavily affected the financial market's estimated risks of emerging governmental bonds. For instance, as of June 30, 2020, Argentina's EMBI spread had increased more than four percentage points in comparison to January 30, 2020. All the Latin American economies measured saw a significant increase of the EMBI spread in the first half of the year.

Brazil is Latin America's largest economy based on annual gross domestic product. As of July 2024, Brazil's Emerging Markets Bond Index stood at 228 points, almost 29 points higher than at the same period one year earlier. This index is a weighted capitalization market benchmark that measures the financial returns obtained each day by a selected portfolio of government bonds from emerging countries.The EMBI+, more commonly known as "risco país" in Portuguese, is measured in base points. These show the difference between the return rates paid by emerging countries' government bonds and those offered by the U.S. Treasury. Based on Brazil's EMBI as of October 27, 2020, the annual return rates of Brazilian sovereign debt titles were estimated to be 315 index points higher than those offered by U.S. Treasury bills. This difference is known as "spread".

Index Time Series for Vanguard Whitehall Funds - Vanguard Emerging Markets Government Bond ETF. The frequency of the observation is daily. Moving average series are also typically included. The manager employs an indexing investment approach designed to track the performance of index. All of the fund's investments will be selected through the sampling process, and under normal circumstances at least 80% of the fund's assets will be invested in bonds included in the index. It is non-diversified.

Graph and download economic data for ICE BofA Emerging Markets Corporate Plus Index Option-Adjusted Spread (BAMLEMCBPIOAS) from 1998-12-31 to 2025-12-01 about emerging markets, option-adjusted spread, corporate, indexes, and USA.

Index Time Series for Vanguard USD Emerging Markets Government Bond UCITS ETF EUR. The frequency of the observation is daily. Moving average series are also typically included. NA

Index Time Series for L&G ESG Emerging Markets Government Bond (USD) 0-5 Year UCITS ETF. The frequency of the observation is daily. Moving average series are also typically included. NA

This paper models the dynamics of Chinese yuan–denominated long-term interest rate swap yields. It shows that the short-term interest rate exerts a decisive influence on the long-term swap yield after controlling for various macrofinancial variables, such as core inflation, the growth of industrial production, the percent change in the equity price index, and the percentage change in the Chinese yuan exchange rate. The autoregressive distributed lag approach is applied to model the dynamics of the long-term swap yield. The findings reinforce and extend John Maynard Keynes’s conjecture that in advanced countries, as well as emerging market economies such as China, the central bank’s actions have a decisive role in setting the long-term interest rate on government bonds and over-the-counter financial instruments, such as swaps.

The global capital exchange ecosystem market, valued at $1.06 trillion in 2025, is projected to experience robust growth, driven by increasing global trade, the rise of fintech innovations, and a growing preference for digital trading platforms. The market's Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of 5.80% from 2025 to 2033 signifies a consistently expanding market opportunity. Key segments, including the primary and secondary markets, contribute significantly to this growth, with the primary market fueled by Initial Public Offerings (IPOs) and other new listings, while the secondary market thrives on the continuous trading of existing securities. The diverse range of stock and bond types (common, preferred, growth, value, defensive stocks; government, corporate, municipal, mortgage bonds) caters to a broad spectrum of investor profiles and risk appetites. Technological advancements, including high-frequency trading algorithms and improved data analytics, are further enhancing market efficiency and liquidity. However, regulatory hurdles, geopolitical uncertainties, and cybersecurity threats remain as potential restraints on market growth. The strong presence of established exchanges like the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE), NASDAQ, and the London Stock Exchange, alongside emerging players in Asia and other regions, contributes to the market's competitive landscape. Regional growth will likely be influenced by economic development, regulatory frameworks, and investor confidence, with North America and Asia Pacific anticipated to maintain leading positions. The future of the capital exchange ecosystem hinges on adaptation and innovation. The increasing integration of blockchain technology and decentralized finance (DeFi) is expected to reshape trading infrastructure and potentially challenge traditional exchange models. Increased regulatory scrutiny globally will likely necessitate further transparency and improved risk management practices by exchanges. Furthermore, the growing prominence of Environmental, Social, and Governance (ESG) investing will influence investment strategies and, consequently, trading activity across various asset classes. The market's future success will depend on its ability to effectively manage risks, embrace technological innovation, and meet the evolving needs of a diverse and increasingly sophisticated investor base. Continued growth is anticipated, driven by both established and emerging markets. Recent developments include: In December 2023, Defiance ETFs, introduced the Defiance Israel Bond ETF (NYSE Arca: CHAI) to facilitate investors' access to the Israeli bond market. CHAI commenced trading on the New York Stock Exchange. The ETF, CHAI, mirrors the MCM (Migdal Capital Markets) BlueStar Israel Bond Index, enabling investors to tap into both Israel government and corporate bonds. This index specifically monitors the performance of bonds, denominated in USD and shekels, issued by either the Israeli government or Israeli corporations., In January 2024, the National Stock Exchange (NSE) saw a 22% rise in its investor base, increasing from 70 million to 85.4 million during the calendar year 2023. This growth highlights the increasing participation of retail investors in the stock market.. Key drivers for this market are: Automating all processes, Regulatory Landscape. Potential restraints include: Automating all processes, Regulatory Landscape. Notable trends are: Increasing Stock Exchanges Index affecting Capital Market Exchange Ecosystem.

Index Time Series for SPDR BofA Merrill Lynch 0-5 Emerging Markets Government Bond UCITS. The frequency of the observation is daily. Moving average series are also typically included. NA

Unit root and stationarity tests of the first differences of the variables.

Summary statistics of the first differences of the variables.

An index that can be used to gauge broad financial conditions and assess how these conditions are related to future economic growth. The index is broadly consistent with how the FRB/US model generally relates key financial variables to economic activity. The index aggregates changes in seven financial variables: the federal funds rate, the 10-year Treasury yield, the 30-year fixed mortgage rate, the triple-B corporate bond yield, the Dow Jones total stock market index, the Zillow house price index, and the nominal broad dollar index using weights implied by the FRB/US model and other models in use at the Federal Reserve Board. These models relate households' spending and businesses' investment decisions to changes in short- and long-term interest rates, house and equity prices, and the exchange value of the dollar, among other factors. These financial variables are weighted using impulse response coefficients (dynamic multipliers) that quantify the cumulative effects of unanticipated permanent changes in each financial variable on real gross domestic product (GDP) growth over the subsequent year. The resulting index is named Financial Conditions Impulse on Growth (FCI-G). One appealing feature of the FCI-G is that its movements can be used to measure whether financial conditions have tightened or loosened, to summarize how changes in financial conditions are associated with real GDP growth over the following year, or both.

Unit root and stationarity tests of the variables.

ARDL(p, q) model of SWAP5Y with alternative independent variables.

Index Time Series for Goldman Sachs ETF Trust - Goldman Sachs Access Emerging Markets USD Bond ETF. The frequency of the observation is daily. Moving average series are also typically included. The fund seeks to invest at least 80% of its assets in securities included in its underlying index. The index is a rules-based index that is designed to measure the performance of investment grade and high yield bonds issued by emerging market governments or quasi-government entities denominated in U.S. dollars ("USD") that meet certain liquidity, governance and fundamental screening criteria.

This paper models the dynamics of Chinese yuan–denominated long-term interest rate swap yields. It shows that the short-term interest rate exerts a decisive influence on the long-term swap yield after controlling for various macrofinancial variables, such as core inflation, the growth of industrial production, the percent change in the equity price index, and the percentage change in the Chinese yuan exchange rate. The autoregressive distributed lag approach is applied to model the dynamics of the long-term swap yield. The findings reinforce and extend John Maynard Keynes’s conjecture that in advanced countries, as well as emerging market economies such as China, the central bank’s actions have a decisive role in setting the long-term interest rate on government bonds and over-the-counter financial instruments, such as swaps.

Inflation-Linked Project Bonds Market Outlook

As per our latest research, the global inflation-linked project bonds market size reached USD 82.4 billion in 2024, reflecting the increasing appetite for inflation-hedged investment instruments amid macroeconomic volatility. The market is expanding at a robust CAGR of 7.1% and is forecasted to achieve a value of USD 153.7 billion by 2033. This growth trajectory is primarily fueled by heightened infrastructure spending, growing concerns over inflationary pressures, and the rising demand for resilient financing mechanisms in both developed and emerging economies. The evolution of inflation-linked project bonds is significantly transforming project financing, providing both issuers and investors with innovative tools to mitigate inflation risks while supporting crucial infrastructure development.

One of the primary growth drivers for the inflation-linked project bonds market is the persistent global inflationary environment, which has prompted both public and private sector entities to seek financing mechanisms that offer protection against the erosion of real returns. Governments and institutional investors are increasingly favoring inflation-linked project bonds as a strategic hedge, particularly in long-term infrastructure projects where cost overruns due to inflation can severely impact financial viability. The ability of these bonds to adjust principal and interest payments in line with inflation indices such as the Consumer Price Index (CPI) makes them an attractive option for projects with extended timelines, such as energy, transportation, and water management. This inflation-hedging feature not only ensures the sustainability of project cash flows but also enhances investor confidence, driving the consistent expansion of the market.

Another significant factor propelling the market is the surge in global infrastructure investment, especially in emerging markets where rapid urbanization and population growth are necessitating massive upgrades in transportation, energy, and social infrastructure. Inflation-linked project bonds are increasingly being utilized to finance these capital-intensive projects, as they provide a stable and predictable return structure for investors, even in volatile economic conditions. The availability of inflation-linked instruments has also enabled governments to attract a broader array of investors, including pension funds and insurance companies, who are seeking long-term, inflation-protected assets. This influx of capital is crucial for bridging the infrastructure financing gap, particularly in regions where traditional funding sources are constrained by fiscal limitations or credit risk concerns.

Technological advancements and financial innovation are further catalyzing the adoption of inflation-linked project bonds. The integration of sophisticated risk management tools, transparent pricing mechanisms, and digital issuance platforms has streamlined the structuring and distribution of these bonds, making them more accessible to a diverse investor base. Additionally, the growing involvement of multilateral agencies and development banks in structuring and guaranteeing inflation-linked bonds has enhanced their credibility and reduced perceived risks, especially in frontier markets. These developments are not only broadening the marketÂ’s geographical reach but also fostering a more competitive and dynamic landscape, encouraging further innovation and expansion.

In the realm of inflation-hedged investment instruments, Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS) have emerged as a vital component for investors seeking to safeguard their portfolios against inflationary pressures. TIPS are government-issued bonds that adjust their principal value in line with inflation, as measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI). This unique feature ensures that the real value of the investment is preserved, offering a reliable hedge against the erosion of purchasing power. The growing interest in TIPS is reflective of the broader trend towards inflation-linked securities, as investors increasingly prioritize stability and predictability in their investment strategies. The integration of TIPS into diversified portfolios is not only enhancing resilience but also aligning with the evolving demands of institutional investors who are navigating complex economic landscapes.

As of July 22, 2025, the yield for a ten-year U.S. government bond was 4.38 percent, while the yield for a two-year bond was 3.88 percent. This represents an inverted yield curve, whereby bonds of longer maturities provide a lower yield, reflecting investors' expectations for a decline in long-term interest rates. Hence, making long-term debt holders open to more risk under the uncertainty around the condition of financial markets in the future. That markets are uncertain can be seen by considering both the short-term fluctuations, and the long-term downward trend, of the yields of U.S. government bonds from 2006 to 2021, before the treasury yield curve increased again significantly in the following years. What are government bonds? Government bonds, otherwise called ‘sovereign’ or ‘treasury’ bonds, are financial instruments used by governments to raise money for government spending. Investors give the government a certain amount of money (the ‘face value’), to be repaid at a specified time in the future (the ‘maturity date’). In addition, the government makes regular periodic interest payments (called ‘coupon payments’). Once initially issued, government bonds are tradable on financial markets, meaning their value can fluctuate over time (even though the underlying face value and coupon payments remain the same). Investors are attracted to government bonds as, provided the country in question has a stable economy and political system, they are a very safe investment. Accordingly, in periods of economic turmoil, investors may be willing to accept a negative overall return in order to have a safe haven for their money. For example, once the market value is compared to the total received from remaining interest payments and the face value, investors have been willing to accept a negative return on two-year German government bonds between 2014 and 2021. Conversely, if the underlying economy and political structures are weak, investors demand a higher return to compensate for the higher risk they take on. Consequently, the return on bonds in emerging markets like Brazil are consistently higher than that of the United States (and other developed economies). Inverted yield curves When investors are worried about the financial future, it can lead to what is called an ‘inverted yield curve’. An inverted yield curve is where investors pay more for short term bonds than long term, indicating they do not have confidence in long-term financial conditions. Historically, the yield curve has historically inverted before each of the last five U.S. recessions. The last U.S. yield curve inversion occurred at several brief points in 2019 – a trend which continued until the Federal Reserve cut interest rates several times over that year. However, the ultimate trigger for the next recession was the unpredicted, exogenous shock of the global coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic, showing how such informal indicators may be grounded just as much in coincidence as causation.

The size of the Capital Exchange Ecosystem Market market was valued at USD 1.06 Million in 2023 and is projected to reach USD 1.57 Million by 2032, with an expected CAGR of 5.80% during the forecast period. Recent developments include: In December 2023, Defiance ETFs, introduced the Defiance Israel Bond ETF (NYSE Arca: CHAI) to facilitate investors' access to the Israeli bond market. CHAI commenced trading on the New York Stock Exchange. The ETF, CHAI, mirrors the MCM (Migdal Capital Markets) BlueStar Israel Bond Index, enabling investors to tap into both Israel government and corporate bonds. This index specifically monitors the performance of bonds, denominated in USD and shekels, issued by either the Israeli government or Israeli corporations., In January 2024, the National Stock Exchange (NSE) saw a 22% rise in its investor base, increasing from 70 million to 85.4 million during the calendar year 2023. This growth highlights the increasing participation of retail investors in the stock market.. Key drivers for this market are: Automating all processes, Regulatory Landscape. Potential restraints include: Automating all processes, Regulatory Landscape. Notable trends are: Increasing Stock Exchanges Index affecting Capital Market Exchange Ecosystem.

Index Time Series for SPDR® Bloomberg Emerging Markets Local Bond UCITS ETF (Dist) CHF. The frequency of the observation is daily. Moving average series are also typically included. The fund seeks to replicate, before expenses, the performance of the liquid local currency emerging markets debt market. It aims to do this by tracking the Barclays Capital Emerging Markets Local Currency Liquid Government Index as closely as possible. The index is a country-constrained index designed to provide a broad measure of the performance of liquid local currency emerging markets debt. It limits country exposure to a maximum of 10% and redistributes the excess market value index-wide on a pro-rata basis. To be included in the index, securities must have an amount outstanding of at least US$1 billion equivalent.