Graph and download economic data for Unemployment Rate for United States (M0892AUSM156SNBR) from Apr 1929 to Jun 1942 about unemployment, rate, and USA.

We study banking panics in the Great Depression using a newly digitized dataset on panic intensity, regional monetary aggregates and economic activity.

The estimated number of banks and thrifts in the United States fell from around ****** in 1920 to ****** in 1929, when the onset of the Great Depression would then see it fall further, below ****** in 1933. This marks a cumulative decline of over ****** banks and thrifts, which is equal to a drop of more than ** percent in 13 years. Tumultuous Twenties Despite the economic prosperity associated with the Roarin' 1920s in the U.S., it was a tumultuous decade in financial terms, with more separate recessions than any other decade. However, the ***** was also privy to frivolous lending policies among many banks, which saw the banking sector collapse in the wake of the Wall Street Crash in 1929. Many banks failed as the Great Depression and unemployment spread across the country, and customers or businesses could not afford to repay their loans. It was only after this financial crisis where the federal government began keeping more stringent and accurate records on its banking sector, therefore precise figures and the reasons behind these bank failures are not always clear. Franklin D. Roosevelt Just two days after assuming office in 1933, Franklin D. Roosevelt drastically declared a bank holiday, and all banks in the country were closed from ******* until ********. This break allowed Congress to pass the Emergency Banking Act on *******, which saw the Federal Reserve provide deposit insurance for all reopened banks thereafter. Through his first fireside chat, Roosevelt then encouraged Americans to re-deposit their money in the banks again, which successfully restored much of the public's faith in the banking system - it is estimated that over half of the cash withdrawn during the Great Depression was then returned to the banks by ********.

The financial crisis of 2007-09 is widely viewed as the worst financial disruption since the Great Depression of 1929-1933. However, the accompanying economic recession was mild compared with the Great Depression, though severe by postwar standards.

Data supporting the chapter "A Second Look at the U.S. Great Depression from a Neoclassical Perspective."

Graph and download economic data for Dates of U.S. recessions as inferred by GDP-based recession indicator (JHDUSRGDPBR) from Q4 1967 to Q4 2024 about recession indicators, GDP, and USA.

Graph and download economic data for NBER based Recession Indicators for the United States from the Period following the Peak through the Trough (USRECD) from 1854-12-01 to 2025-07-10 about peak, trough, recession indicators, and USA.

Data supporting the chapter "The Great Depression in Italy: Trade Restrictions and Real Wage Rigidities."

This essay assesses whether network linkages within the banking system amplified the real effects of bank failures during the Great Contraction. In 1929, nearly all interbank deposits held by Federal Reserve member banks belonged to "shadowy" nonmember banks which were outside the regulatory reach of federal regulators. Regional banking panics in the early 1930s drained these interbank deposits from central reserve city banks. Money-center banks in Chicago and New York responded to volatile and declining interbank deposits by changing their asset composition. They reduced their lending to businesses and individuals, and increased their holdings of cash and government bonds.

Data supporting the chapter "The Great Depression in Canada and the United States: A Neoclassical Perspective."

The U.S. federal funds rate peaked in 2023 at its highest level since the 2007-08 financial crisis, reaching 5.33 percent by December 2023. A significant shift in monetary policy occurred in the second half of 2024, with the Federal Reserve implementing regular rate cuts. By December 2024, the rate had declined to 4.48 percent. What is a central bank rate? The federal funds rate determines the cost of overnight borrowing between banks, allowing them to maintain necessary cash reserves and ensure financial system liquidity. When this rate rises, banks become more inclined to hold rather than lend money, reducing the money supply. While this decreased lending slows economic activity, it helps control inflation by limiting the circulation of money in the economy. Historic perspective The federal funds rate historically follows cyclical patterns, falling during recessions and gradually rising during economic recoveries. Some central banks, notably the European Central Bank, went beyond traditional monetary policy by implementing both aggressive asset purchases and negative interest rates.

Graph and download economic data for Real-time Sahm Rule Recession Indicator (SAHMREALTIME) from Dec 1959 to Jun 2025 about recession indicators, academic data, and USA.

Data supporting the chapter "The Role of Real Wages, Productivity, and Fiscal Policy in Germany’s Great Depression, 1928-37."

United States banking professionals believed in Q2 2022 that a Fed overcorrection was a probable cause for a recession. ** percent of the respondents believed that the too fast and too highly increasing Fed rates would result in an economic recession. ** percent of the respondents predicted that a recession would occur because of supply chain problems, while **** percent mentioned the conflict in Eastern Europe as the main cause for a possible recession.

The Volcker Shock was a period of historically high interest rates precipitated by Federal Reserve Chairperson Paul Volcker's decision to raise the central bank's key interest rate, the Fed funds effective rate, during the first three years of his term. Volcker was appointed chairperson of the Fed in August 1979 by President Jimmy Carter, as replacement for William Miller, who Carter had made his treasury secretary. Volcker was one of the most hawkish (supportive of tighter monetary policy to stem inflation) members of the Federal Reserve's committee, and quickly set about changing the course of monetary policy in the U.S. in order to quell inflation. The Volcker Shock is remembered for bringing an end to over a decade of high inflation in the United States, prompting a deep recession and high unemployment, and for spurring on debt defaults among developing countries in Latin America who had borrowed in U.S. dollars.

Monetary tightening and the recessions of the early '80s

Beginning in October 1979, Volcker's Fed tightened monetary policy by raising interest rates. This decision had the effect of depressing demand and slowing down the U.S. economy, as credit became more expensive for households and businesses. The Fed funds rate, the key overnight rate at which banks lend their excess reserves to each other, rose as high as 17.6 percent in early 1980. The rate was allowed to fall back below 10 percent following this first peak, however, due to worries that inflation was not falling fast enough, a second cycle of monetary tightening was embarked upon starting in August of 1980. The rate would reach its all-time peak in June of 1981, at 19.1 percent. The second recession sparked by these hikes was far deeper than the 1980 recession, with unemployment peaking at 10.8 percent in December 1980, the highest level since The Great Depression. This recession would drive inflation to a low point during Volcker's terms of 2.5 percent in August 1983.

The legacy of the Volcker Shock

By the end of Volcker's terms as Fed Chair, inflation was at a manageable rate of around four percent, while unemployment had fallen under six percent, as the economy grew and business confidence returned. While supporters of Volcker's actions point to these numbers as proof of the efficacy of his actions, critics have claimed that there were less harmful ways that inflation could have been brought under control. The recessions of the early 1980s are cited as accelerating deindustrialization in the U.S., as manufacturing jobs lost in 'rust belt' states such as Michigan, Ohio, and Pennsylvania never returned during the years of recovery. The Volcker Shock was also a driving factor behind the Latin American debt crises of the 1980s, as governments in the region defaulted on debts which they had incurred in U.S. dollars. Debates about the validity of using interest rate hikes to get inflation under control have recently re-emerged due to the inflationary pressures facing the U.S. following the Coronavirus pandemic and the Federal Reserve's subsequent decision to embark on a course of monetary tightening.

This data package includes the underlying data and files to replicate the calculations, charts, and tables presented in A program for strengthening the Federal Reserve’s ability to fight the next recession, PIIE Working Paper 20-5.

If you use the data, please cite as: Reifschneider, David, and David Wilcox. (2020). A program for strengthening the Federal Reserve’s ability to fight the next recession. PIIE Working Paper 20-5. Peterson Institute for International Economics.

Graph and download economic data for GDP-Based Recession Indicator Index (JHGDPBRINDX) from Q4 1967 to Q4 2024 about recession indicators, percent, GDP, and indexes.

Data supporting the chapter "Tariffs and the Great Depression Revisited."

United States NBER-Based Recession Indicators from the Peak Through the Trough data was reported at 0.000 Unit in 14 May 2025. This stayed constant from the previous number of 0.000 Unit for 13 May 2025. United States NBER-Based Recession Indicators from the Peak Through the Trough data is updated daily, averaging 0.000 Unit from Dec 1854 (Median) to 14 May 2025, with 62256 observations. The data reached an all-time high of 1.000 Unit in 15 Apr 2020 and a record low of 0.000 Unit in 14 May 2025. United States NBER-Based Recession Indicators from the Peak Through the Trough data remains active status in CEIC and is reported by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. The data is categorized under Global Database’s United States – Table US.S: NBER-Based Recession Indicators.

United States - Smoothed U.S. Recession Probabilities was 0.48% in April of 2025, according to the United States Federal Reserve. Historically, United States - Smoothed U.S. Recession Probabilities reached a record high of 100.00 in March of 2020 and a record low of 0.00 in November of 1967. Trading Economics provides the current actual value, an historical data chart and related indicators for United States - Smoothed U.S. Recession Probabilities - last updated from the United States Federal Reserve on June of 2025.