Inflation is generally defined as the continued increase in the average prices of goods and services in a given region. Following the extremely high global inflation experienced in the 1980s and 1990s, global inflation has been relatively stable since the turn of the millennium, usually hovering between three and five percent per year. There was a sharp increase in 2008 due to the global financial crisis now known as the Great Recession, but inflation was fairly stable throughout the 2010s, before the current inflation crisis began in 2021. Recent years Despite the economic impact of the coronavirus pandemic, the global inflation rate fell to 3.26 percent in the pandemic's first year, before rising to 4.66 percent in 2021. This increase came as the impact of supply chain delays began to take more of an effect on consumer prices, before the Russia-Ukraine war exacerbated this further. A series of compounding issues such as rising energy and food prices, fiscal instability in the wake of the pandemic, and consumer insecurity have created a new global recession, and global inflation in 2024 is estimated to have reached 5.76 percent. This is the highest annual increase in inflation since 1996. Venezuela Venezuela is the country with the highest individual inflation rate in the world, forecast at around 200 percent in 2022. While this is figure is over 100 times larger than the global average in most years, it actually marks a decrease in Venezuela's inflation rate, which had peaked at over 65,000 percent in 2018. Between 2016 and 2021, Venezuela experienced hyperinflation due to the government's excessive spending and printing of money in an attempt to curve its already-high inflation rate, and the wave of migrants that left the country resulted in one of the largest refugee crises in recent years. In addition to its economic problems, political instability and foreign sanctions pose further long-term problems for Venezuela. While hyperinflation may be coming to an end, it remains to be seen how much of an impact this will have on the economy, how living standards will change, and how many refugees may return in the coming years.

The Volcker Shock was a period of historically high interest rates precipitated by Federal Reserve Chairperson Paul Volcker's decision to raise the central bank's key interest rate, the Fed funds effective rate, during the first three years of his term. Volcker was appointed chairperson of the Fed in August 1979 by President Jimmy Carter, as replacement for William Miller, who Carter had made his treasury secretary. Volcker was one of the most hawkish (supportive of tighter monetary policy to stem inflation) members of the Federal Reserve's committee, and quickly set about changing the course of monetary policy in the U.S. in order to quell inflation. The Volcker Shock is remembered for bringing an end to over a decade of high inflation in the United States, prompting a deep recession and high unemployment, and for spurring on debt defaults among developing countries in Latin America who had borrowed in U.S. dollars.

Monetary tightening and the recessions of the early '80s

Beginning in October 1979, Volcker's Fed tightened monetary policy by raising interest rates. This decision had the effect of depressing demand and slowing down the U.S. economy, as credit became more expensive for households and businesses. The Fed funds rate, the key overnight rate at which banks lend their excess reserves to each other, rose as high as 17.6 percent in early 1980. The rate was allowed to fall back below 10 percent following this first peak, however, due to worries that inflation was not falling fast enough, a second cycle of monetary tightening was embarked upon starting in August of 1980. The rate would reach its all-time peak in June of 1981, at 19.1 percent. The second recession sparked by these hikes was far deeper than the 1980 recession, with unemployment peaking at 10.8 percent in December 1980, the highest level since The Great Depression. This recession would drive inflation to a low point during Volcker's terms of 2.5 percent in August 1983.

The legacy of the Volcker Shock

By the end of Volcker's terms as Fed Chair, inflation was at a manageable rate of around four percent, while unemployment had fallen under six percent, as the economy grew and business confidence returned. While supporters of Volcker's actions point to these numbers as proof of the efficacy of his actions, critics have claimed that there were less harmful ways that inflation could have been brought under control. The recessions of the early 1980s are cited as accelerating deindustrialization in the U.S., as manufacturing jobs lost in 'rust belt' states such as Michigan, Ohio, and Pennsylvania never returned during the years of recovery. The Volcker Shock was also a driving factor behind the Latin American debt crises of the 1980s, as governments in the region defaulted on debts which they had incurred in U.S. dollars. Debates about the validity of using interest rate hikes to get inflation under control have recently re-emerged due to the inflationary pressures facing the U.S. following the Coronavirus pandemic and the Federal Reserve's subsequent decision to embark on a course of monetary tightening.

Graph and download economic data for Inflation, consumer prices for the United States (FPCPITOTLZGUSA) from 1960 to 2023 about consumer, CPI, inflation, price index, indexes, price, and USA.

During the period beginning roughly in the mid-1980s until the Global Financial Crisis (2007-2008), the U.S. economy experienced a time of relative economic calm, with low inflation and consistent GDP growth. Compared with the turbulent economic era which had preceded it in the 1970s and the early 1980s, the lack of extreme fluctuations in the business cycle led some commentators to suggest that macroeconomic issues such as high inflation, long-term unemployment and financial crises were a thing of the past. Indeed, the President of the American Economic Association, Professor Robert Lucas, famously proclaimed in 2003 that "central problem of depression prevention has been solved, for all practical purposes". Ben Bernanke, the future chairman of the Federal Reserve during the Global Financial Crisis (GFC) and 2022 Nobel Prize in Economics recipient, coined the term 'the Great Moderation' to describe this era of newfound economic confidence. The era came to an abrupt end with the outbreak of the GFC in the Summer of 2007, as the U.S. financial system began to crash due to a downturn in the real estate market.

Causes of the Great Moderation, and its downfall

A number of factors have been cited as contributing to the Great Moderation including central bank monetary policies, the shift from manufacturing to services in the economy, improvements in information technology and management practices, as well as reduced energy prices. The period coincided with the term of Fed chairman Alan Greenspan (1987-2006), famous for the 'Greenspan put', a policy which meant that the Fed would proactively address downturns in the stock market using its monetary policy tools. These economic factors came to prominence at the same time as the end of the Cold War (1947-1991), with the U.S. attaining a new level of hegemony in global politics, as its main geopolitical rival, the Soviet Union, no longer existed. During the Great Moderation, the U.S. experienced a recession twice, between July 1990 and March 1991, and again from March 2001 tom November 2001, however, these relatively short recessions did not knock the U.S. off its growth path. The build up of household and corporate debt over the early 2000s eventually led to the Global Financial Crisis, as the bursting of the U.S. housing bubble in 2007 reverberated across the financial system, with a subsequent credit freeze and mass defaults.

In 2020, the inflation rate in Brazil amounted to about 3.21 percent compared to the previous year, a slight increase from the previous year’s 3.73 percent, but a large improvement compared to 2015 with more than 9 percent.

Superlative Brazil

Brazil is not only one of the largest countries in the world, it is also one of the largest economies and a member of the so-called BRIC states, four up-and-coming emerging economies. Unfortunately, Brazil also struggles due to an on-going recession; In 2017, the majority of Brazilians described the state of the country’s economy as “bad”.

The state of Brazil’s economy

Brazil’s mixed economy suffered a severe political and economic crisis in 2014 that only ended in 2016. The country’s GDP slumped dramatically and inflation skyrocketed. As of today, Brazil has recovered, GDP is on the rise again, and inflation is below four percent – however, as a result of the recession that saw millions of job cuts, unemployment is at an all-time high.

On October 29, 1929, the U.S. experienced the most devastating stock market crash in it's history. The Wall Street Crash of 1929 set in motion the Great Depression, which lasted for twelve years and affected virtually all industrialized countries. In the United States, GDP fell to it's lowest recorded level of just 57 billion U.S dollars in 1933, before rising again shortly before the Second World War. After the war, GDP fluctuated, but it increased gradually until the Great Recession in 2008. Real GDP Real GDP allows us to compare GDP over time, by adjusting all figures for inflation. In this case, all numbers have been adjusted to the value of the US dollar in FY2012. While GDP rose every year between 1946 and 2008, when this is adjusted for inflation it can see that the real GDP dropped at least once in every decade except the 1960s and 2010s. The Great Recession Apart from the Great Depression, and immediately after WWII, there have been two times where both GDP and real GDP dropped together. The first was during the Great Recession, which lasted from December 2007 until June 2009 in the US, although its impact was felt for years after this. After the collapse of the financial sector in the US, the government famously bailed out some of the country's largest banking and lending institutions. Since recovery began in late 2009, US GDP has grown year-on-year, and reached 21.4 trillion dollars in 2019. The coronavirus pandemic and the associated lockdowns then saw GDP fall again, for the first time in a decade. As economic recovery from the pandemic has been compounded by supply chain issues, inflation, and rising global geopolitical instability, it remains to be seen what the future holds for the U.S. economy.

We argue that the vast bulk of movements in aggregate real economic activity during the Great Recession were due to financial frictions. We reach this conclusion by looking through the lens of an estimated New Keynesian model in which firms face moderate degrees of price rigidities, no nominal rigidities in wages, and a binding zero lower bound constraint on the nominal interest rate. Our model does a good job of accounting for the joint behavior of labor and goods markets, as well as inflation, during the Great Recession. According to the model the observed fall in total factor productivity and the rise in the cost of working capital played critical roles in accounting for the small drop in inflation that occurred during the Great Recession. (JEL E12, E23, E24, E31, E32, E52)

Inflation in Argentina was 54 percent in 2019, before falling to 42 percent in 2020. Despite Argentina's fluctuating economic instability over the twentieth century, the largest factor in its current economic status is the legacy of poor fiscal discipline left by the economic depression from 1998 to 2002. Although data is not available from 2014 to 2016, Argentina's inflation rate has been among the highest in the world for the past five years.

What causes inflation?

Inflation is a rise in price levels for all goods. Major causes of inflation include an increase in money supply, low central bank interest rates, and expectation of inflation. In a country such as Argentina, the expectation can be one of the biggest obstacles. People expect inflation to be high and demand increasing wages, and firms continue raising prices because they expect the costs of inputs to increase. Banks follow suit, charging high interest rates on fixed deposits.

Effects of inflation

Inflation negatively affects savers. 100 Argentinian pesos in 2018 was worth just under 75 pesos in 2019, after adjusting for the 34 percent inflation rate. Similarly, frequently changing prices has its own inherent cost, called “menu cost” after the price of printing new menus. Inflation will also have a positive effect on national debt when that debt is denominated in Argentinian pesos, because the pesos will be cheaper when the loan matures. However, the majority of Argentina’s debts are in foreign currency, which means that inflation will make these debts larger in peso terms.

The Covid-19 pandemic saw growth fall by 2.2 percent, compared with an increase of 2.5 percent the year before. The last time the real GDP growth rates fell by a similar level was during the Great Recession in 2009, and the only other time since the Second World War where real GDP fell by more than one percent was in the early 1980s recession. The given records began following the Wall Street Crash in 1929, and GDP growth fluctuated greatly between the Great Depression and the 1950s, before growth became more consistent.

The rate on 15-year fixed rate mortgages in the United States decreased in the period after the Great Recession and reached its lowest level in 2021, followed by a steep increase in the next two years. In the early 1990s, the rate on a 15-year fixed rate mortgage was between six and nine percent. The rate then fell to 2.27 percent in 2021. After the Federal Reserve introduced several bank rate hikes to tackle the rising inflation, the mortgage rate soared to 6.11 percent - the highest rate observed since 2008. The rate for 30-year fixed mortgages and five-year ARM mortgages followed a similar trend.

After a period of gradual decline, the average annual rate on a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage in the United States rose to 6.81 percent in 2023, up from the record-low 2.96 percent in 2021. The rate for 15-year fixed mortgages and five-year ARM mortgages followed a similar trend. This was a result of the Federal Reserve increasing the bank rate - a measure introduced to tackle the rising inflation. U.S. home prices going through the roof Mortgage rates have a strong impact on the market – the lower the rate, the lower the loan repayment. The rate on a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage decreasing after the Great Recession has stimulated the market and boosted home sales. Another problem consumers face is the fact that house prices are rising at an unaffordable level. The median sales price of a new home sold surged in 2021, while the median weekly earnings of a full-time employee maintained a more moderate increase. What are the differences between 15-year and 30-year mortgages? Two of the most popular loan terms available to homebuyers are the 15-year fixed-rate mortgage and the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage. The 30-year option appeals to more consumers because the repayment is spread out over 30 years, meaning the monthly payments are lower. Consumers choosing the 15-year option will have to pay higher monthly payments but benefit from lower interest rates.

With the collapse of the U.S. housing market and the subsequent financial crisis on Wall Street in 2007 and 2008, economies across the globe began to enter into deep recessions. What had started out as a crisis centered on the United States quickly became global in nature, as it became apparent that not only had the economies of other advanced countries (grouped together as the G7) become intimately tied to the U.S. financial system, but that many of them had experienced housing and asset price bubbles similar to that in the U.S.. The United Kingdom had experienced a huge inflation of housing prices since the 1990s, while Eurozone members (such as Germany, France and Italy) had financial sectors which had become involved in reckless lending to economies on the periphery of the EU, such as Greece, Ireland and Portugal. Other countries, such as Japan, were hit heavily due their export-led growth models which suffered from the decline in international trade. Unemployment during the Great Recession As business and consumer confidence crashed, credit markets froze, and international trade contracted, the unemployment rate in the most advanced economies shot up. While four to five percent is generally considered to be a healthy unemployment rate, nearing full employment in the economy (when any remaining unemployment is not related to a lack of consumer demand), many of these countries experienced rates at least double that, with unemployment in the United States peaking at almost 10 percent in 2010. In large countries, unemployment rates of this level meant millions or tens of millions of people being out of work, which led to political pressures to stimulate economies and create jobs. By 2012, many of these countries were seeing declining unemployment rates, however, in France and Italy rates of joblessness continued to increase as the Euro crisis took hold. These countries suffered from having a monetary policy which was too tight for their economies (due to the ECB controlling interest rates) and fiscal policy which was constrained by EU debt rules. Left with the option of deregulating their labor markets and pursuing austerity policies, their unemployment rates remained over 10 percent well into the 2010s. Differences in labor markets The differences in unemployment rates at the peak of the crisis (2009-2010) reflect not only the differences in how economies were affected by the downturn, but also the differing labor market institutions and programs in the various countries. Countries with more 'liberalized' labor markets, such as the United States and United Kingdom experienced sharp jumps in their unemployment rate due to the ease at which employers can lay off workers in these countries. When the crisis subsided in these countries, however, their unemployment rates quickly began to drop below those of the other countries, due to their more dynamic labor markets which make it easier to hire workers when the economy is doing well. On the other hand, countries with more 'coordinated' labor market institutions, such as Germany and Japan, experiences lower rates of unemployment during the crisis, as programs such as short-time work, job sharing, and wage restraint agreements were used to keep workers in their jobs. While these countries are less likely to experience spikes in unemployment during crises, the highly regulated nature of their labor markets mean that they are slower to add jobs during periods of economic prosperity.

The statistic depicts the average inflation rate in Mexico from 1987 to 2022, with projections up until 2029. The inflation rate measures price changes for a fixed basket of goods which includes a representative selection of goods and services. In 2022, Mexico's average inflation rate was around 7.9 percent compared to the previous year.

Mexico’s economy

Mexico’s gross domestic product (GDP) has been increasing slightly over the last decade, however, its national debt still amounts to almost half of its GDP. The majority of Mexico’s GDP is yielded by the services sector, as a look at the distribution of gross domestic product in Mexico by sector shows. More than 60 percent of GDP are generated in this sector; the majority of the Mexican workforce is employed in services. One important contributor to Mexico’s GDP is tourism. The total unemployment rate in Mexico took a turn for the worse during the recession of 2008 and is still to bounce back to previous levels.

Mexico’s main export and import partner is the United States which accounts for approximately half of the value of both. Thus, the trade balance of goods in Mexico, showing the value of exports minus the value of imports, is heavily dependant on the United States. For the past decade, Mexico’s trade balance has run at a deficit of more than 10 billion US dollars. The trade balance of services sector in Mexico has also been in the red with a deficit of more than 6 percent since the recession and higher than 9 percent since 2011.

Mexico is also one of the largest drug exporting countries worldwide. Specific trade figures are not available, however, Mexico is among the top countries for opium cultivation based on acreage, and thousands of illegal poppy fields, processed into opium, have been destroyed in Mexico year after year.

The Survey of Consumer Attitudes and Behavior series (also known as the Surveys of Consumers) was undertaken to measure changes in consumer attitudes and expectations, to understand why such changes occur, and to evaluate how they relate to consumer decisions to save, borrow, or make discretionary purchases. The data regularly include the Index of Consumer Sentiment, the Index of Current Economic Conditions, and the Index of Consumer Expectations. Since the 1940s, these surveys have been produced quarterly through 1977 and monthly thereafter. The surveys conducted in 2010 focused on topics such as evaluations and expectations about personal finances, employment, price changes, and the national business situation. Opinions were collected regarding respondents' appraisals of present market conditions for purchasing houses, automobiles, and other durables. Explored in this survey were respondents' types of savings and financial investments, loan use, family income, and retirement planning. This survey also asked respondents about financial and health literacy; adult and online education; and technology use in health, finances, travel, and communication. Additional questions on independent living communities and general feelings were asked. Other topics in this series typically include ownership, lease, and use of automobiles, respondents' use of personal computers at home and in the office, and respondents' familiarity with and use of the Internet. Demographic information include ethnic origin, sex, age, marital status, and education.

In 2023, it was estimated that over 161 million Americans were in some form of employment, while 3.64 percent of the total workforce was unemployed. This was the lowest unemployment rate since the 1950s, although these figures are expected to rise in 2023 and beyond. 1980s-2010s Since the 1980s, the total United States labor force has generally risen as the population has grown, however, the annual average unemployment rate has fluctuated significantly, usually increasing in times of crisis, before falling more slowly during periods of recovery and economic stability. For example, unemployment peaked at 9.7 percent during the early 1980s recession, which was largely caused by the ripple effects of the Iranian Revolution on global oil prices and inflation. Other notable spikes came during the early 1990s; again, largely due to inflation caused by another oil shock, and during the early 2000s recession. The Great Recession then saw the U.S. unemployment rate soar to 9.6 percent, following the collapse of the U.S. housing market and its impact on the banking sector, and it was not until 2016 that unemployment returned to pre-recession levels. 2020s 2019 had marked a decade-long low in unemployment, before the economic impact of the Covid-19 pandemic saw the sharpest year-on-year increase in unemployment since the Great Depression, and the total number of workers fell by almost 10 million people. Despite the continuation of the pandemic in the years that followed, alongside the associated supply-chain issues and onset of the inflation crisis, unemployment reached just 3.67 percent in 2022 - current projections are for this figure to rise in 2023 and the years that follow, although these forecasts are subject to change if recent years are anything to go by.

Stagflation (stagnation and inflation in one word) depicts a time period when an economy is not only suffering from a recession (declining GDP), but high unemployment and inflation rates as well. Usually unemployment and inflation are inversely related, which makes stagflation a rare occurrence. It first happened in the 1970s, when OPEC put an oil embargo on the United States, resulting in oil prices skyrocketing to three times the standard value at that time. As of September 2023, the price of oil fell by 20 percent in comparison to last year after having increased by 76 perent as a result of Russian invasion of Ukraine. The has been signs of stagflation in some countries through 2022 and 2023, but falling inflation rates indicate that the worst has been avoided.

In 2023 and through 2024, the world saw inflation rates increase amid, among other things, post-COVID-19 effects and the Russia-Ukraine war. Argentina and Turkey were both plagued by hyperinflation, with over 219 and 58 percent in 2024, respectively. Except for these, Russia had the highest inflation rate, at nearly eight percent. On the other hand, China had the lowest rate of the countries included here, at 0.2 percent. Argentinian inflation crisis During the 2020s, Argentina was struck by extreme levels of inflation, which severely impacted the livelihoods of Argentinians. Specifically, the costs of goods have presented numerous challenges to Argentinian consumers. In Argentina, a basic food basket that costs around 26,000 Argentinian pesos cost over 100,000 by February 2024. Similarly, a basic consumer goods basket that cost around 57,000 Argentinian pesos in February 2023 rose to over 220,000 by February 2024. While these rising costs have been challenging for consumers, Argentina’s inflation rate is expected to decrease beginning in 2024 and is estimated to reach 8.9% by 2029.

British recession Besides the outliers of Argentina and Turkey, the United Kingdom had a comparatively high CPI rate. As of 2024, the British economy has entered a recession, the only G7 country to do so. Just before the general election held in July 2024, British voters indicated that health, mostly the lack of financial support and staff shortages, as well as the economy was the most important issue to them.

In 2021, the inflation rate in Ghana amounted to about 9.98 percent compared to the previous year. Ghana’s inflation peaked at almost 17.5 percent in 2016 and is predicted to decrease to 8 percent by 2029.

Steady is best for inflation

According to economists, a steady inflation rate between two and three percent is desirable to achieve a stable economy in a country. Inflation is the increase in the price level of consumer goods and services over a certain time period. A high inflation rate is often caused by excessive money supply and can turn into hyperinflation, i.e. if inflation occurs too quickly and rapidly, it can devalue currency and cause a recession and even economic collapse. This scenario is currently taking place in Venezuela , for example. The opposite of inflation, the decrease in the price level of goods and services below zero percent, is called deflation. While hyperinflation devalues money, deflation usually increases its value. Both events can damage an economy severely.

Is Ghana’s economy at risk?

Ghana’s economy is considered quite stable and fast-growing, and is rich in oil, diamonds, and gold. After struggling in the years around 2015 due to increased government spending and plummeting oil prices, it is now on an upswing again. This is also reflected in the decreasing inflation rate, and other key indicators like unemployment and rapid GDP growth support this theory. However, Ghana’s government debt is still struggling with the consequences of the 2015 crisis and forecast to keep skyrocketing during the next few years.

In 2022 and through 2023, the world saw inflation rates increase amid, among other, post-COVID-19 effects and the Russia-Ukraine war. Argentina and Turkey were both plagued by hyperinflation at over 130 and 50 percent in 2023, respectively. Except for these, the United Kingdom had the highest inflation rate at nearly seven percent. On the other hand, China had the lowest rate of the countries included here at 0.2 percent. Argentinian inflation crisis During the 2020’s, Argentina has been struck by extreme levels of inflation, which has severely impacted the livelihoods of Argentinians. Specifically, the costs of goods have presented numerous challenges to Argentinian consumers. In Argentina, a basic food basket that cost around 26,000 Argentinian pesos cost over 100,000 Argentinian pesos by February 2024. Similarly, a basic consumer goods basket that cost around 57,000 Argentinian pesos in February 2023 rose to over 220,000 Argentinian pesos by February 2024. While these rising costs have been challenging for consumers, Argentina’s inflation rate is expected to decrease beginning in 2024 and is estimated to reach 8.9% by 2029.

British recession Besides the outliers of Argentina and Turkey, the United Kingdom had a comparatively high CPI rate. As of 2024, the British economy has entered a recession, the only G7 country to do so. As a general election will be held in July 2024, British voters indicate health, citing lack of financial support and staff shortages, as well as the economy as the most important issues to them.

In 2023, the inflation rate in Ireland amounted to about 5.21 percent compared to the previous year. Ireland’s inflation is forecast to stabilize over the coming years at around two percent.

The Irish recession

Ireland’s economy was the first one in the EU to collapse and enter a recession during the financial crisis of 2008. Unemployment skyrocketed, gross domestic product declined, many Irish workers emigrated to find jobs elsewhere, and even a decade later, Ireland still struggles to return to its former standards. GDP growth, for example, still fluctuates considerably, just like inflation, and unemployment seems to have only just recovered.

To good health and a stable economy

The Central European Bank recommends a stable inflation around two percent as ideal, and Ireland seems to be on the right track. Most of its GDP is generated by services, for example tourism and financial services. However, the alcohol industry is also an important player: In 2018, more than 3.7 billion U.S. dollars in revenue were reported by the Irish alcoholic drinks market.