Evaluating multiple signals of climate change across the conterminous United States during three 30-year periods (2010�2039, 2040�2069, 2070�2099) during this century to a baseline period (1980�2009) emphasizes potential changes for growing degree days (GDD), plant hardiness zones (PHZ), and heat zones. These indices were derived using the CCSM4 and GFDL CM3 models under the representative concentration pathways 4.5 and 8.5, respectively, and included in Matthews et al. (2018). Daily temperature was downscaled by Maurer et al.�(https://doi.org/10.1029/2007EO470006 at a 1/8 degree grid scale and used to obtain growing degree days, plant hardiness zones, and heat zones.�Each of these indices provides unique information about plant health related to changes in climatic conditions that influence establishment, growth, and survival. These data and the calculated changes are provided as 14 individual IMG files for each index to assist with management planning and decision making into the future. For each of the four indices the following are included: two baseline files (1980�2009), three files representing 30-year periods for the scenario CCSM4 under RCP 4.5 along with three files of changes, and three files representing 30-year periods for the scenario GFDL CM3 under RCP 8.5 along with three files of changes. Growing degree days address an important component to general patterns of plant growth by accumulating the degree days across the growing season. This metric provides a level of detail related to defining the growing season potential. Here, we evaluate the accumulation of growing degree days at or above 5 �C (41 �F), assuming that limited growth occurs below 5 �C.�Specifically, we calculate growing degree days by first calculating the average daily temperature, based on the maximum and minimum projected daily temperature. We then subtract 5 �C from each mean value and then accumulate the positive difference values for all days within each year. The mean GDD values for the conterminous United States during the baseline period ranged from less than 100 to over 7,000 degree days, increasing from north to south with highest values in the Florida panhandle, southern Texas, southwestern Arizona, and southeastern California. GDD projections throughout the century suggest a ubiquitous increase across the United States with slightly less change in the Northeast and much greater increases throughout the southern United States under the high scenario. Original data and associated metadata can be downloaded from this website:�https://www.fs.usda.gov/rds/archive/Product/RDS-2019-0001This record was taken from the USDA Enterprise Data Inventory that feeds into the https://data.gov catalog. Data for this record includes the following resources: ISO-19139 metadata ArcGIS Hub Dataset ArcGIS GeoService For complete information, please visit https://data.gov.

A pre-configured, multi-layer web map for viewing all Growing Degree Days scenarios. (To launch the map from the Climate Change Open Data site, select "View Metadata" under the "About" heading, then look for the button labeled "Open in Map Viewer" to the upper right.) The map layers depict historical and projected changes in growing degree days (GDD), a measure of heat accumulation in plants which indicates cumulative seasonal warming above a base temperature of 50°F. Geographic units: HUC10. Map layer data include historical (1970-1999) values plus two projections each for two future time periods, 2050s (2040-2069) and 2080s (2070-2099), based on lower and higher greenhouse gas emission scenarios, RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5. Data classes and symbology by Robert Norheim, Climate Impacts Group, based on the CMIP5 projections used in the IPCC 2013 report. Data source: Mote et al. 2015.

Each of these indices provides unique information about plant health related to changes in climatic conditions that influence establishment, growth, and survival. These data and the calculated changes are provided as 14 individual IMG files for each index to assist with management planning and decision making into the future. For each of the four indices the following are included: two baseline files (1980�2009), three files representing 30-year periods for the scenario CCSM4 under RCP 4.5 along with three files of changes, and three files representing 30-year periods for the scenario GFDL CM3 under RCP 8.5 along with three files of changes. Growing degree days address an important component to general patterns of plant growth by accumulating the degree days across the growing season. This metric provides a level of detail related to defining the growing season potential. Here, we evaluate the accumulation of growing degree days at or above 5 �C (41 �F), assuming that limited growth occurs below 5 �C.�Specifically, we calculate growing degree days by first calculating the average daily temperature, based on the maximum and minimum projected daily temperature. We then subtract 5 �C from each mean value and then accumulate the positive difference values for all days within each year. The mean GDD values for the conterminous United States during the baseline period ranged from less than 100 to over 7,000 degree days, increasing from north to south with highest values in the Florida panhandle, southern Texas, southwestern Arizona, and southeastern California. GDD projections throughout the century suggest a ubiquitous increase across the United States with slightly less change in the Northeast and much greater increases throughout the southern United States under the high scenario. Original data and associated metadata can be downloaded from this website:�https://www.fs.usda.gov/rds/archive/Product/RDS-2019-0001

Heat accumulation in the spring is commonly used to predict the timing of phenological transitions in plants and animals. This accumulation is typically reported in Growing Degree Days. The USA-NPN is currently generating daily Accumulated Growing Degree Day (AGDD) maps using a January 1 start date and two base temperatures, 32°F and 50°F. In many plants and animals, phenological transitions – especially those in spring - happen when enough warmth has accumulated. This warmth is often measured using growing degree days (GDDs). Growing degrees days are defined as the number of degrees the average daily temperature exceeds a base temperature, or the temperature below which the organism will remain in dormancy. Growing Degree Days are calculated as: GDD = ((Tmax + Tmin)/2) - Tbase If the average temperature for a day is lower than the base temperature, then no Growing Degree Days are counted. Growing Degrees are accumulated daily, starting 1 January, by adding each day’s total to all previous days’ totals. -USA National Phenology Network - https://www.usanpn.org/data/agdd_mapsA compliant implementation of WMS plus most of the SLD extension (dynamic styling). Can also generate PDF, SVG, KML, GeoRSS

This map shows trends in the total number of growing degree days per year at 305 weather stations . The color and size of the symbols represent percent change between 1948 and 2020, based on the long-term average rate of change. For more information: https://www.epa.gov/climatechange/science/indicators.

Contained within the 5th Edition (1978 to 1995) of the National Atlas of Canada is a map that shows the annual sum of normal degree-days above 5 C (an indicator of total heat available for plants in the growing season). Data for period 1941 to 1970. Companion sheet to Frost-Free Period, Heating Degree-Days, Last Frost in Spring and First Frost in Autumn.

Growing degree days (GDDs) are used to estimate the growth and development of plants and insects during the growing season. Growing Degree Day are computed by subtracting a base value temperature from the mean daily temperature and are assigned a value of zero if negative. Base temperatures are a point below which development does not occur for the organism in question. Growing Degree Day products are created for base 0, 5, 10 and 15 degrees Celsius. GDD values are only accumulated during the Growing Season, April 1 through October 31.

A regression model that estimates monthly temperature and precipitation as a function of latitude, longitude, and elevation for the New England area was used to estimate annual growing degree days and precipitation for the state of Massachusetts. For details of the regression model please see the published paper (Ollinger, S.V., Aber, J.D., Federer, C.A., Lovett, G.M., Ellis, J.M., 1995. Modeling Physical and Chemical Climate of the Northeastern United States for a Geographic Information System. US Dept of Agriculture, Forest Service, Radnor, PA, USA).

A statewide grid surface (80m spatial resolution) delineating Degree Day accumulation across the state of Tasmania is produced daily for the Tasmanian growing season (i.e. between months October …Show full descriptionA statewide grid surface (80m spatial resolution) delineating Degree Day accumulation across the state of Tasmania is produced daily for the Tasmanian growing season (i.e. between months October through to April). The outputs are dynamic with the map products updated daily. Three map products are produced: GDD accumulation to date for the current growing season (i.e. heat accumulation tracker updated daily) GDD accumulation to date based on the 5 year average (i.e. averaged GDD units garnered from data 5 years prior to the current growing season; updated daily) GDD deviation from average (the difference between 1 and 2). Negative values indicate that the current growing season is cooler relative to the 5 year average, whereas positive values indicate a warmer season. Map outputs are based on daily records produced from 43 Bureau of Meteorology (BoM) weather station observation sites with further bias correction provided by 267 independent air temperature logger recording sites (courtesy of the Tasmanian Government Department of Primary Industries, Parks, Water and Environment (DPIPWE)). For operational real-time application, the mapping was fully automated in the R programming language and hosted on a cloud-based computing platform courtesy of Sense-T and hosted on the high performance computing cluster provided by the Tasmanian Partnership of Advanced Computing (TPAC) of the University of Tasmania. Refer to the following link for details of the latest map updates: https://www.dropbox.com/s/zcmq7c9aq5isq3s/Air_Temperature_TAS_map_log.txt

This dataset shows the trends of annual growing degree days (GDD) for 30 sites across New Zealand from at least 1972 to 2019. GDD are the total number of degrees Celsius above a base threshold temperature for each day. We use a base threshold of 10 degrees Celsius to report on the annual GDD for each of these sites and trends. Growing degree days (GDD) indicate the amount of warmth available for plant and insect growth and can be used to predict when flowers will bloom, and crops and insects will mature. Increased GDD means that plants and insects reach maturity faster, provided that other conditions necessary for growth are favourable, such as sufficient moisture and nutrients.

VARIABLES: Variables: site: NIWA monitoring site Base_temperature: The base temperature to calculate the total GDD period_start: Start of the period for which the trend was assessed period_end: End of the period for which the trend was assessed p_value: P value slope, conf_low, conf_high: Rate of change per year and their lower and upper confidence intervals conf_level: confidence level (66% or 90% to match IPCC likelihood levels) z: Z score trend_method: Whether the information in this row correspond to the Sen slope or the Mann-Kendall test n: number of observations used to calculate the trend note: analysis note s, var_s, tau: Mann-Kendall trend statistics alternative: the alternative hypothesis used for the Mann-Kendall test trend_likelihood: Likelihood categories adapted from IPCC. Indicates the likelihood that a trend is increasing, decreasing, or indeterminate lat: Latitude lon: Longitude Pretty_site_name: Pretty site name Unit: unit Region_simple: Region of NIWA monitoring site Site_simple: Pretty site name without macrons

Contained within the 5th Edition (1978 to 1995) of the National Atlas of Canada is a map that shows the annual sum of heating degree days (an indicator of building heating needs). Data for period 1941 to 1970. Companion sheet to Frost-Free Period, Growing Degree-Days, Last Frost in Spring and First Frost in Autumn.

Evaluating multiple signals of climate change across the conterminous United States during three 30-year periods (2010�2039, 2040�2069, 2070�2099) during this century to a baseline period (1980�2009) emphasizes potential changes for growing degree days (GDD), plant hardiness zones (PHZ), and heat zones. These indices were derived using the CCSM4 and GFDL CM3 models under the representative concentration pathways 4.5 and 8.5, respectively, and included in Matthews et al. (2018). Daily temperature was downscaled by Maurer et al. (https://doi.org/10.1029/2007EO470006) at a 1/8 degree grid scale and used to obtain growing degree days, plant hardiness zones, and heat zones. Each of these indices provides unique information about plant health related to changes in climatic conditions that influence establishment, growth, and survival. These data and the calculated changes are provided as 14 individual IMG files for each index to assist with management planning and decision making into the future. For each of the four indices the following are included: two baseline files (1980�2009), three files representing 30-year periods for the scenario CCSM4 under RCP 4.5 along with three files of changes, and three files representing 30-year periods for the scenario GFDL CM3 under RCP 8.5 along with three files of changes.�Plant hardiness zones provide a general indication of the extent of overwinter stress experienced by plants. PHZ are based on the average annual extreme minimum temperatures and have been used by horticulturists to evaluate the cold hardiness of plants. Specifically, the value used here is the absolute minimum temperature achieved for each year and reported as the 30-year mean. Because they reflect cold tolerance for many plant species, including woody ones, hardiness zones are most likely to reflect plant range limits. The zonal variations caused by warming temperatures in the future will therefore be useful to approximately delineate niche constraints of many plant species and hence their future range potential. Plant hardiness zones and subzones were delineated according to the USDA definitions, which break the geography into zones by 10 �F (5.56 �C) increments from zone 1 (-55 to -45.6 �C) to zone 13 (15.7 to 22 �C) of annual extreme minimum temperature. To define the coldest day per year, daily minimum temperatures were identified within the period July 1 to June 30, with the nominal year assigned to the first 6 months of the 12-month period.�Original data and associated metadata can be downloaded from this website:�https://www.fs.usda.gov/rds/archive/Product/RDS-2019-0001

Contained within the 3rd Edition (1957) of the Atlas of Canada is a plate that shows four maps of certain climatic aspects of the growing seasons. The first map shows the mean annual length of the growing season throughout Canada, assuming the growing season to be that part of the year when the mean daily temperature is above 42 degrees F (5.6 degrees C). The map was constructed from data for the period 1921-1950 inclusive and is based on the mean annual number of days on which the mean temperature, as estimated from the smoothed annual course of temperature, was above 42 degrees F (5.6 degrees C). The number of degree-days above 42 degrees F (5.6 degrees C) is the difference between the daily mean temperature and 42 degrees F (5.6 degrees C) when the former is more than 42 degrees F (5.6 degrees C). The annual number of degree-days, as shown on the second map, is the sum of such daily values during the year. The mean growing season precipitation map shows the average precipitation during the growing season for the period 1921 to 1950 inclusive. For this purpose, the growing season for all of Canada was arbitrarily assumed to be the period from April 1st to August 31st inclusive. There is also a map showing the variability of growing season precipitation. The variability is expressed in terms of the coefficient of variation. For any one place it would be the standard deviation of growing season precipitation divided by the mean growing season precipitation. The result is multiplied by 100 so that it can be shown as a percentage.

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The US Global Change Research Program sponsors the semi-annual National Climate Assessment, which is the authoritative analysis of climate change and its potential impacts in the United States. The 4th National Climate Assessment (NCA4), issued in 2018, used high resolution, downscaled LOCA climate data for many of its national and regional analyses. The LOCA downscaling was applied to multi-model mean weighted averages, using the following 32 CMIP5 model ensemble:ACCESS1-0, ACCESS1-3, bcc-csm1-1, bcc-csm1-1-m, CanESM2, CCSM4, CESM1-BGC, CESM1-CAM5, CMCC-CM, CMCC-CMS, CNRM-CM5, CSIRO-Mk3-6-0, EC EARTH, FGOALS-g2, GFDL-CM3, GFDL-ESM2G, GFDL-ESM2M, GISS-E2-H-p1, GISS-E2-R-p1, HadGEM2-AO, HadGEM2-CC, HadGEM2-ES, inmcm4, IPSL-CM5A-LR, IPSL-CM5A-MR, MIROC5, MIROC-ESM-CHEM, MIROC-ESM, MPI-ESM-LR, MPI-ESM-MR, MRI-CGCM3, NorESM1-M.All of the LOCA variables used in NCA4 are presented here. Many are thresholded to provide 47 actionable statistics, like days with precipitation greater than 3", length of the growing season, or days above 90 degrees F. Time RangesStatistics for each variables were calculated over a 30-year period. Four different time ranges are provided:Historical: 1976-2005Early-Century: 2016-2045Mid-Century: 2036-2065Late-Century: 2070-2099Climate ScenariosClimate models use estimates of greenhouse gas concentrations to predict overall change. These difference scenarios are called the Relative Concentration Pathways. Two different RCPs are presented here: RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5. The number indicates the amount of radiative forcing(watts per meter square) associated with the greenhouse gas concentration scenario in the year 2100 (higher forcing = greater warming). It is unclear which scenario will be the most likely, but RCP 4.5 aligns with the international targets of the COP-26 agreement, while RCP 8.5 is aligns with a more "business as usual" approach. Detailed documentation and the original data from USGCRP, processed by NOAA's National Climate Assessment Technical Support Unit at the North Carolina Institute for Climate Studies, can be accessed from the NCA Atlas. Variable DefinitionsCooling Degree Days: Cooling degree days (annual cumulative number of degrees by which the daily average temperature is greater than 65°F) [degree days (degF)]Consecutive Dry Days: Annual maximum number of consecutive dry days (days with total precipitation less than 0.01 inches)Consecutive Dry Days Jan Jul Aug: Summer maximum number of consecutive dry days (days with total precipitation less than 0.01 inches in June, July, and August)Consecutive Wet Days: Annual maximum number of consecutive wet days (days with total precipitation greater than or equal to 0.01 inches)First Freeze Day: Date of the first fall freeze (annual first occurrence of a minimum temperature at or below 32degF in the fall)Growing Degree Days: Growing degree days, base 50 (annual cumulative number of degrees by which the daily average temperature is greater than 50°F) [degree days (degF)]Growing Degree Days Modified: Modified growing degree days, base 50 (annual cumulative number of degrees by which the daily average temperature is greater than 50°F; before calculating the daily average temperatures, daily maximum temperatures above 86°F and daily minimum temperatures below 50°F are set to those values) [degree days (degF)]growing-season: Length of the growing (frost-free) season (the number of days between the last occurrence of a minimum temperature at or below 32degF in the spring and the first occurrence of a minimum temperature at or below 32degF in the fall)Growing Season 28F: Length of the growing season, 28°F threshold (the number of days between the last occurrence of a minimum temperature at or below 28°F in the spring and the first occurrence of a minimum temperature at or below 28°F in the fall)Growing Season 41F: Length of the growing season, 41°F threshold (the number of days between the last occurrence of a minimum temperature at or below 41°F in the spring and the first occurrence of a minimum temperature at or below 41°F in the fall)Heating Degree Days: Heating degree days (annual cumulative number of degrees by which the daily average temperature is less than 65°F) [degree days (degF)]Last Freeze Day: Date of the last spring freeze (annual last occurrence of a minimum temperature at or below 32degF in the spring)Precip Above 99th pctl: Annual total precipitation for all days exceeding the 99th percentile, calculated with reference to 1976-2005 [inches]Precip Annual Total: Annual total precipitation [inches]Precip Days Above 99th pctl: Annual number of days with precipitation exceeding the 99th percentile, calculated with reference to 1976-2005 [inches]Precip 1in: Annual number of days with total precipitation greater than 1 inchPrecip 2in: Annual number of days with total precipitation greater than 2 inchesPrecip 3in: Annual number of days with total precipitation greater than 3 inchesPrecip 4in: Annual number of days with total precipitation greater than 4 inchesPrecip Max 1 Day: Annual highest precipitation total for a single day [inches]Precip Max 5 Day: Annual highest precipitation total over a 5-day period [inches]Daily Avg Temperature: Daily average temperature [degF]Daily Max Temperature: Daily maximum temperature [degF]Temp Max Days Above 99th pctl: Annual number of days with maximum temperature greater than the 99th percentile, calculated with reference to 1976-2005Temp Max Days Below 1st pctl: Annual number of days with maximum temperature lower than the 1st percentile, calculated with reference to 1976-2005Days Above 100F: Annual number of days with a maximum temperature greater than 100degFDays Above 105F: Annual number of days with a maximum temperature greater than 105degFDays Above 110F: Annual number of days with a maximum temperature greater than 110degFDays Above 115F: Annual number of days with a maximum temperature greater than 115degFTemp Max 1 Day: Annual single highest maximum temperature [degF]Days Above 32F: Annual number of icing days (days with a maximum temperature less than 32degF)Temp Max 5 Day: Annual highest maximum temperature averaged over a 5-day period [degF]Days Above 86F: Annual number of days with a maximum temperature greater than 86degFDays Above 90F: Annual number of days with a maximum temperature greater than 90degFDays Above 95F: Annual number of days with a maximum temperature greater than 95degFTemp Min: Daily minimum temperature [degF]Temp Min Days Above 75F: Annual number of days with a minimum temperature greater than 75degFTemp Min Days Above 80F: Annual number of days with a minimum temperature greater than 80degFTemp Min Days Above 85F: Annual number of days with a minimum temperature greater than 85degFTemp Min Days Above 90F: Annual number of days with a minimum temperature greater than 90degFTemp Min Days Above 99th pctl: Annual number of days with minimum temperature greater than the 99th percentile, calculated with reference to 1976-2005Temp Min Days Below 1st pctl: Annual number of days with minimum temperature lower than the 1st percentile, calculated with reference to 1976-2005Temp Min Days Below 28F: Annual number of days with a minimum temperature less than 28degFTemp Min Max 5 Day: Annual highest minimum temperature averaged over a 5-day period [degF]Temp Min 1 Day: Annual single lowest minimum temperature [degF]Temp Min 32F: Annual number of frost days (days with a minimum temperature less than 32degF)Temp Min 5 Day: Annual lowest minimum temperature averaged over a 5-day period [degF]For For freeze-related variables:The first fall freeze is defined as the date of the first occurrence of 32degF or lower in the nine months starting midnight August 1. Grid points with more than 10 of the 30 years not experiencing an occurrence of 32degF or lower are excluded from the analysis.No freeze occurrence, value = 999The last spring freeze is defined as the date of the last occurrence of 32degF or lower in the nine months prior to midnight August 1. Grid points with more than 10 of the 30 years not experiencing an occurrence of 32degF or lower are excluded from the analysis.No freeze occurrence, value = 999The growing season is defined as the number of days between the last occurrence of 28degF/32degF/41degF or lower in the nine months prior to midnight August 1 and the first occurrence of 28degF/32degF/41degF or lower in the nine months starting August 1. Grid points with more than 10 of the 30 years not experiencing an occurrence of 28degF/32degF/41degF or lower are excluded from the analysis.No freeze occurrence, value = 999

This data set provides global forest area, forest growing stock, and forest biomass data at 1-degree resolution for the period 1950-2010. The data set is based on a compilation of forest area and growing stock data reported in international assessments performed by FAO, MCPFE (now Forest Europe), and UNECE. Data of different assessments are to the extent possible harmonized to reflect both forest area and other wooded land, to be comparable between countries and assessments.

🇺🇸 미국 English Evaluating multiple signals of climate change across the conterminous United States during three 30-year periods (2010�2039, 2040�2069, 2070�2099) during this century to a baseline period (1980�2009) emphasizes potential changes for growing degree days (GDD), plant hardiness zones (PHZ), and heat zones. These indices were derived using the CCSM4 and GFDL CM3 models under the representative concentration pathways 4.5 and 8.5, respectively, and included in Matthews et al. (2018). Daily temperature was downscaled by Maurer et al. (https://doi.org/10.1029/2007EO470006) at a 1/8 degree grid scale and used to obtain growing degree days, plant hardiness zones, and heat zones. Each of these indices provides unique information about plant health related to changes in climatic conditions that influence establishment, growth, and survival. These data and the calculated changes are provided as 14 individual IMG files for each index to assist with management planning and decision making into the future. For each of the four indices the following are included: two baseline files (1980�2009), three files representing 30-year periods for the scenario CCSM4 under RCP 4.5 along with three files of changes, and three files representing 30-year periods for the scenario GFDL CM3 under RCP 8.5 along with three files of changes.Heat zones map the distribution of potential heat stress for plants and animals, including humans. We define heat zones as the number of days with maximum daily temperature >30 �C (86 �F). Because species have unique adaptations and abilities to tolerate a wide variety of conditions, this metric is used merely as an indicator of change in �hot� conditions. The 30 �C value is set primarily for agricultural production and is a general temperature threshold at which photosynthesis can be negatively impacted for C3 plants (e.g., most species including trees), but it certainly also captures temperatures that induce stress in humans as well. In addition, increases in temperature above these thresholds for longer periods, especially when accompanied with prolonged dry conditions, are linked to reduced performance and likely mortality of trees. Each day surpassing the 30 �C threshold was tallied and summed for each year and reported as the mean number of days, per year, over each 30-year period: baseline, early, mid, and late century.�Original data and associated metadata can be downloaded from this website:�https://www.fs.usda.gov/rds/archive/Product/RDS-2019-0001

The US Global Change Research Program sponsors the semi-annual National Climate Assessment, which is the authoritative analysis of climate change and its potential impacts in the United States. The 4th National Climate Assessment (NCA4), issued in 2018, used high resolution, downscaled LOCA climate data for many of its national and regional analyses. The LOCA downscaling was applied to multi-model mean weighted averages, using the following 32 CMIP5 model ensemble:ACCESS1-0, ACCESS1-3, bcc-csm1-1, bcc-csm1-1-m, CanESM2, CCSM4, CESM1-BGC, CESM1-CAM5, CMCC-CM, CMCC-CMS, CNRM-CM5, CSIRO-Mk3-6-0, EC EARTH, FGOALS-g2, GFDL-CM3, GFDL-ESM2G, GFDL-ESM2M, GISS-E2-H-p1, GISS-E2-R-p1, HadGEM2-AO, HadGEM2-CC, HadGEM2-ES, inmcm4, IPSL-CM5A-LR, IPSL-CM5A-MR, MIROC5, MIROC-ESM-CHEM, MIROC-ESM, MPI-ESM-LR, MPI-ESM-MR, MRI-CGCM3, NorESM1-M.All of the LOCA variables used in NCA4 are presented here. Many are thresholded to provide 47 actionable statistics, like days with precipitation greater than 3", length of the growing season, or days above 90 degrees F. Time RangesStatistics for each variables were calculated over a 30-year period. Four different time ranges are provided:Historical: 1976-2005Early-Century: 2016-2045Mid-Century: 2036-2065Late-Century: 2070-2099Climate ScenariosClimate models use estimates of greenhouse gas concentrations to predict overall change. These difference scenarios are called the Relative Concentration Pathways. Two different RCPs are presented here: RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5. The number indicates the amount of radiative forcing(watts per meter square) associated with the greenhouse gas concentration scenario in the year 2100 (higher forcing = greater warming). It is unclear which scenario will be the most likely, but RCP 4.5 aligns with the international targets of the COP-26 agreement, while RCP 8.5 is aligns with a more "business as usual" approach. Detailed documentation and the original data from USGCRP, processed by NOAA's National Climate Assessment Technical Support Unit at the North Carolina Institute for Climate Studies, can be accessed from the NCA Atlas. Variable DefinitionsCooling Degree Days: Cooling degree days (annual cumulative number of degrees by which the daily average temperature is greater than 65°F) [degree days (degF)]Consecutive Dry Days: Annual maximum number of consecutive dry days (days with total precipitation less than 0.01 inches)Consecutive Dry Days Jan Jul Aug: Summer maximum number of consecutive dry days (days with total precipitation less than 0.01 inches in June, July, and August)Consecutive Wet Days: Annual maximum number of consecutive wet days (days with total precipitation greater than or equal to 0.01 inches)First Freeze Day: Date of the first fall freeze (annual first occurrence of a minimum temperature at or below 32degF in the fall)Growing Degree Days: Growing degree days, base 50 (annual cumulative number of degrees by which the daily average temperature is greater than 50°F) [degree days (degF)]Growing Degree Days Modified: Modified growing degree days, base 50 (annual cumulative number of degrees by which the daily average temperature is greater than 50°F; before calculating the daily average temperatures, daily maximum temperatures above 86°F and daily minimum temperatures below 50°F are set to those values) [degree days (degF)]growing-season: Length of the growing (frost-free) season (the number of days between the last occurrence of a minimum temperature at or below 32degF in the spring and the first occurrence of a minimum temperature at or below 32degF in the fall)Growing Season 28F: Length of the growing season, 28°F threshold (the number of days between the last occurrence of a minimum temperature at or below 28°F in the spring and the first occurrence of a minimum temperature at or below 28°F in the fall)Growing Season 41F: Length of the growing season, 41°F threshold (the number of days between the last occurrence of a minimum temperature at or below 41°F in the spring and the first occurrence of a minimum temperature at or below 41°F in the fall)Heating Degree Days: Heating degree days (annual cumulative number of degrees by which the daily average temperature is less than 65°F) [degree days (degF)]Last Freeze Day: Date of the last spring freeze (annual last occurrence of a minimum temperature at or below 32degF in the spring)Precip Above 99th pctl: Annual total precipitation for all days exceeding the 99th percentile, calculated with reference to 1976-2005 [inches]Precip Annual Total: Annual total precipitation [inches]Precip Days Above 99th pctl: Annual number of days with precipitation exceeding the 99th percentile, calculated with reference to 1976-2005 [inches]Precip 1in: Annual number of days with total precipitation greater than 1 inchPrecip 2in: Annual number of days with total precipitation greater than 2 inchesPrecip 3in: Annual number of days with total precipitation greater than 3 inchesPrecip 4in: Annual number of days with total precipitation greater than 4 inchesPrecip Max 1 Day: Annual highest precipitation total for a single day [inches]Precip Max 5 Day: Annual highest precipitation total over a 5-day period [inches]Daily Avg Temperature: Daily average temperature [degF]Daily Max Temperature: Daily maximum temperature [degF]Temp Max Days Above 99th pctl: Annual number of days with maximum temperature greater than the 99th percentile, calculated with reference to 1976-2005Temp Max Days Below 1st pctl: Annual number of days with maximum temperature lower than the 1st percentile, calculated with reference to 1976-2005Days Above 100F: Annual number of days with a maximum temperature greater than 100degFDays Above 105F: Annual number of days with a maximum temperature greater than 105degFDays Above 110F: Annual number of days with a maximum temperature greater than 110degFDays Above 115F: Annual number of days with a maximum temperature greater than 115degFTemp Max 1 Day: Annual single highest maximum temperature [degF]Days Above 32F: Annual number of icing days (days with a maximum temperature less than 32degF)Temp Max 5 Day: Annual highest maximum temperature averaged over a 5-day period [degF]Days Above 86F: Annual number of days with a maximum temperature greater than 86degFDays Above 90F: Annual number of days with a maximum temperature greater than 90degFDays Above 95F: Annual number of days with a maximum temperature greater than 95degFTemp Min: Daily minimum temperature [degF]Temp Min Days Above 75F: Annual number of days with a minimum temperature greater than 75degFTemp Min Days Above 80F: Annual number of days with a minimum temperature greater than 80degFTemp Min Days Above 85F: Annual number of days with a minimum temperature greater than 85degFTemp Min Days Above 90F: Annual number of days with a minimum temperature greater than 90degFTemp Min Days Above 99th pctl: Annual number of days with minimum temperature greater than the 99th percentile, calculated with reference to 1976-2005Temp Min Days Below 1st pctl: Annual number of days with minimum temperature lower than the 1st percentile, calculated with reference to 1976-2005Temp Min Days Below 28F: Annual number of days with a minimum temperature less than 28degFTemp Min Max 5 Day: Annual highest minimum temperature averaged over a 5-day period [degF]Temp Min 1 Day: Annual single lowest minimum temperature [degF]Temp Min 32F: Annual number of frost days (days with a minimum temperature less than 32degF)Temp Min 5 Day: Annual lowest minimum temperature averaged over a 5-day period [degF]For For freeze-related variables:The first fall freeze is defined as the date of the first occurrence of 32degF or lower in the nine months starting midnight August 1. Grid points with more than 10 of the 30 years not experiencing an occurrence of 32degF or lower are excluded from the analysis.No freeze occurrence, value = 999The last spring freeze is defined as the date of the last occurrence of 32degF or lower in the nine months prior to midnight August 1. Grid points with more than 10 of the 30 years not experiencing an occurrence of 32degF or lower are excluded from the analysis.No freeze occurrence, value = 999The growing season is defined as the number of days between the last occurrence of 28degF/32degF/41degF or lower in the nine months prior to midnight August 1 and the first occurrence of 28degF/32degF/41degF or lower in the nine months starting August 1. Grid points with more than 10 of the 30 years not experiencing an occurrence of 28degF/32degF/41degF or lower are excluded from the analysis.No freeze occurrence, value = 999

Evaluating multiple signals of climate change across the conterminous United States during three 30-year periods (2010–2039, 2040–2069, 2070–2099) during this century to a baseline period (1980–2009) emphasizes potential changes for growing degree days (GDD), plant hardiness zones (PHZ), heat zones (HeatZone), and cumulative drought severity (CDSI). These indices were derived using the CCSM4 and GFDL CM3 models under the representative concentration pathways 4.5 and 8.5, respectively, and included in Matthews et al. (2018). Daily temperature was downscaled by Maurer et al. (2007) at a 1/8 degree grid scale and used to obtain growing degree days, plant hardiness zones, and heat zones. Monthly precipitation and temperature downscaled to 30 arc-seconds (~800 meters) by Daly et al. (2008) for the period 1980–2015 and Thrasher et al. (2013) for the period 2016–2099, were aggregated to a 10 square kilometer grid and used to calculate a self-calibrated palmer drought severity index that was then aggregated into 30-year cumulative drought severity index values. Each of these indices provides unique information about plant health related to changes in climatic conditions that influence establishment, growth, and survival. These data and the calculated changes are provided as 13 (CDSI) or 14 (GDD, HeatZone, PHZ) individual IMG files for each index to assist with management planning and decision making into the future. For each of the four indices the following are included: one [two for nonCDSI] baseline file (1980–2009), three files representing 30-year periods for the scenario CCSM4 under RCP 4.5 along with three files of changes, and three files representing 30-year periods for the scenario GFDL CM3 under RCP 8.5 along with three files of changes.Forest managers planning for potential changes in precipitation, temperatures, and extreme events during the later parts of this century need information on how conditions are likely to change. The Research Map NRS-9 (Matthews et al. 2018), provides maps and regional summaries for four climatic indices across the conterminous United States that provide information on stressors related to tree establishment, growth, and survival. These climate data will support user specific evaluations and analyses.*These data are also available as a story map: https://usfs.maps.arcgis.com/apps/MapSeries/index.html?appid=96088b1c086a4b39b3a75d0fd97a4c40

This web map is a subset of World Bioclimate Image Layer.Climate plays a major role in determining the distribution of plants and animals. Bioclimatology, the study of climate as it affects and is affected by living organisms, is key to understanding the patterns of forests and deserts on the landscape, where productive agricultural lands may be found, and how changes in the climate will affect rare species. This layer is part of the Ecophysiographic Project and is one of the four input layers used to create the World Ecological Land Units Map.Dataset Summary This layer provides access to a 250m cell-sized raster with a bioclimatic stratification. The source dataset was a 30-arcsecond resolution raster (equivalent to 0.86 km2 at the equator or about a 920m pixel size). The layer has the following attributes: Temperature Description - Seven classes based on the number of growing degree days (the monthly mean temperature multiplied by number of days in the month summed for all months). The 1950 to 2000 monthly average temperature was used to calculate growing degree days. Values in this field and associated number of growing degree days are:Temperature DescriptionGrowing Degree DaysVery Hot9,000 – 13,500Hot7,000 – 9,000Warm4,500 – 7,000Cool2,500 – 4,500Cold1,000 – 2,500Very Cold300 – 1,000Arctic0 - 300Aridity Description - Six classes based on an index of aridity calculated by dividing precipitation by evapotranspiration. Precipitation and evapotranspiration are average values from 1950 to 2000.Aridity DescriptionAridity IndexVery Wet1.5 – 70Wet1.0 – 1.5Moist0.6 – 1.0Semi-dry0.3 – 0.6Dry0.1 – 0.3Very Dry0.01 – 0.1Bioclimate Class - a 2-part description that combines the value of the Temperature Description field and the Aridity Description field. The alias for this field is ELU Bioclimate Reclass. This layer was created by modifying the dataset documented in the publication: Metzger and others. 2012. A high-resolution bioclimate map of the world: a unifying framework for global biodiversity research and monitoring. What can you do with this layer? This layer is suitable for both visualization and analysis. It can be used in ArcGIS Online in web maps and applications and can be used in ArcGIS Desktop.This layer has query, identify, and export image services available. This layer is restricted to a maximum area of 16,000 x 16,000 pixels - an area 4,000 kilometers on a side or an area approximately the size of Europe. A service is available providing access to the data table associated with this layer. The data table services can be used by developers to quickly and efficiently query the data and to create custom applications. For more information see the World Ecophysiographic Tables.This layer is part of a larger collection of landscape layers that you can use to perform a wide variety of mapping and analysis tasks.The Living Atlas of the World provides an easy way to explore the landscape layers and many other beautiful and authoritative maps on hundreds of topics.Geonet is a good resource for learning more about landscape layers and the Living Atlas of the World. To get started see the Living Atlas Discussion Group.The Esri Insider Blog provides an introduction to the Ecophysiographic Mapping project.