The Federal Reserve's balance sheet has undergone significant changes since 2007, reflecting its response to major economic crises. From a modest 0.9 trillion U.S. dollars at the end of 2007, it ballooned to approximately 6.76 trillion U.S. dollars by March 2025. This dramatic expansion, particularly during the 2008 financial crisis and the COVID-19 pandemic - both of which resulted in negative annual GDP growth in the U.S. - showcases the Fed's crucial role in stabilizing the economy through expansionary monetary policies. Impact on inflation and interest rates The Fed's expansionary measures, while aimed at stimulating economic growth, have had notable effects on inflation and interest rates. Following the quantitative easing in 2020, inflation in the United States reached eight percent in 2022, the highest since 1991. However, by November 2024, inflation had declined to 2.7 percent. Concurrently, the Federal Reserve implemented a series of interest rate hikes, with the rate peaking at 5.33 percent in August 2023, before the first rate cut since September 2021 occurred in September 2024. Financial implications for the Federal Reserve The expansion of the Fed's balance sheet and subsequent interest rate hikes have had significant financial implications. In 2023, the Fed reported a negative net income of 114.3 billion U.S. dollars, a stark contrast to the 58.84 billion U.S. dollars profit in 2022. This unprecedented shift was primarily due to rapidly rising interest rates, which caused the Fed's interest expenses to soar to over 281 billion U.S. dollars in 2023. Despite this, the Fed's net interest income on securities acquired through open market operations reached a record high of 174.53 billion U.S. dollars in the same year.

Graph and download economic data for Deposits, All Commercial Banks (DPSACBW027SBOG) from 1973-01-03 to 2025-03-12 about deposits, banks, depository institutions, and USA.

Graph and download economic data for Monetary Base: Total (BOGMBASE) from Jan 1959 to Feb 2025 about monetary base and USA.

The euro and U.S. dollar made up more than seven of 10 SWIFT payments worldwide in 2024, outperforming many other currencies. This is according to a monthly report meant to track the market share of China's yuan renminbi within the international bank transfer system SWIFT. Although China holds the largest forex reserves in the world, the yuan ranked as the eighth-used currency in international payments. The figures concern customer-initiated and institutional payments and exclude trade. Discussions on the potential weakening role of the U.S. dollar especially touch world trade and forex. For example, the share of the USD in forex reserves declined visibly against the euro and Japanese yen in 2023. What sparked this de-dollarization trend, and will it continue? Trade sanctions and de-dollarization De-dollarization in 2023 is mentioned mostly alongside trade and the BRICS countries - an informal name given to Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa. The combined GDP of BRICS is about 25 percent of the world's economy. After the start of the Ukraine war and Russia received economic sanctions, the BRICS slowly evolved into a trading bloc. The group increasingly wanted its own currency to settle payments within the trade bloc, to avoid using the U.S. dollar. In August 2023, BRICS will gather in South Africa to discuss the creation of such a new joint currency. Additionally, 19 countries - including Argentina, Algeria, Egypt, Saudi Arabia, Turkey, and Yemen - expressed interest in joining the BRICS group. CBDC, or projects into a digital payment settlement A factor of future uncertainty for the U.S. dollar is how central bank digital currencies (CBDC) develop in emerging countries. Several projects exist between individual countries that specifically target cross-border interbank payments. A cooperation between Thailand and Hong Kong, Inthanon-Lionrock, ranks as the most advanced of these projects. CBDC does not require the U.S. dollar to function. Tangible such as commodities or gold can back them. The value of transactions processed with CBDC is to grow by 260,000 percent between 2023 and 2030.

The U.S. federal funds rate peaked in 2023 at its highest level since the 2007-08 financial crisis, reaching 5.33 percent by December 2023. A significant shift in monetary policy occurred in the second half of 2024, with the Federal Reserve implementing regular rate cuts. By December 2024, the rate had declined to 4.48 percent. What is a central bank rate? The federal funds rate determines the cost of overnight borrowing between banks, allowing them to maintain necessary cash reserves and ensure financial system liquidity. When this rate rises, banks become more inclined to hold rather than lend money, reducing the money supply. While this decreased lending slows economic activity, it helps control inflation by limiting the circulation of money in the economy. Historic perspective The federal funds rate historically follows cyclical patterns, falling during recessions and gradually rising during economic recoveries. Some central banks, notably the European Central Bank, went beyond traditional monetary policy by implementing both aggressive asset purchases and negative interest rates.