By April 2026, it is projected that there is a probability of ***** percent that the United States will fall into another economic recession. This reflects a significant decrease from the projection of the preceding month.

The Long Depression was, by a large margin, the longest-lasting recession in U.S. history. It began in the U.S. with the Panic of 1873, and lasted for over five years. This depression was the largest in a series of recessions at the turn of the 20th century, which proved to be a period of overall stagnation as the U.S. financial markets failed to keep pace with industrialization and changes in monetary policy. Great Depression The Great Depression, however, is widely considered to have been the most severe recession in U.S. history. Following the Wall Street Crash in 1929, the country's economy collapsed, wages fell and a quarter of the workforce was unemployed. It would take almost four years for recovery to begin. Additionally, U.S. expansion and integration in international markets allowed the depression to become a global event, which became a major catalyst in the build up to the Second World War. Decreasing severity When comparing recessions before and after the Great Depression, they have generally become shorter and less frequent over time. Only three recessions in the latter period have lasted more than one year. Additionally, while there were 12 recessions between 1880 and 1920, there were only six recessions between 1980 and 2020. The most severe recession in recent years was the financial crisis of 2007 (known as the Great Recession), where irresponsible lending policies and lack of government regulation allowed for a property bubble to develop and become detached from the economy over time, this eventually became untenable and the bubble burst. Although the causes of both the Great Depression and Great Recession were similar in many aspects, economists have been able to use historical evidence to try and predict, prevent, or limit the impact of future recessions.

Business recessions are notoriously hard to predict accurately, hence the quip that economists have predicted eight of the last five recessions. This article derives a six-month-ahead recession signal that reduces the number of false signals outside of recession, without impairing the ability to signal the recessions that occur. In terms of predicting the 1990-1991 and 2001 recessions out of sample, the new recession signal, like other signals, largely misses the 1990-1991 recession with its six-month-ahead forecasts. In contrast, a recession onset in April or May 2001 was predicted six months ahead of the 2001 recession, which is close to the actual turning point of March 2001.

Graph and download economic data for Real-time Sahm Rule Recession Indicator (SAHMREALTIME) from Dec 1959 to Sep 2025 about recession indicators, academic data, and USA.

The Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in Hong Kong expanded 0.70 percent in the third quarter of 2025 over the previous quarter. This dataset provides - Hong Kong GDP Growth Rate - actual values, historical data, forecast, chart, statistics, economic calendar and news.

In 2024, the gross domestic product (GDP) of the United Kingdom grew by 0.9 percent and is expected to grow by just one percent in 2025 and by 1.9 percent in 2026. Growth is expected to slow down to 1.8 percent in 2027, and then grow by 1.7, and 1.8 percent in 2027 and 2028 respectively. The sudden emergence of COVID-19 in 2020 and subsequent closure of large parts of the economy were the cause of the huge 9.4 percent contraction in 2020, with the economy recovering somewhat in 2021, when the economy grew by 7.6 percent. UK growth downgraded in 2025 Although the economy is still expected to grow in 2025, the one percent growth anticipated in this forecast has been halved from two percent in October 2024. Increased geopolitical uncertainty as well as the impact of American tariffs on the global economy are some of the main reasons for this mark down. The UK's inflation rate for 2025 has also been revised, with an annual rate of 3.2 percent predicated, up from 2.6 percent in the last forecast. Unemployment is also anticipated to be higher than initially thought, with the annual unemployment rate likely to be 4.5 percent instead of 4.1 percent. Long-term growth problems In the last two quarters of 2023, the UK economy shrank by 0.1 percent in Q3 and by 0.3 percent in Q4, plunging the UK into recession for the first time since the COVID-19 pandemic. Even before that last recession, however, the UK economy has been struggling with weak growth. Although growth since the pandemic has been noticeably sluggish, there has been a clear long-term trend of declining growth rates. The economy has consistently been seen as one of the most important issues to people in Britain, ahead of health, immigration and the environment. Achieving strong levels of economic growth is one of the main aims of the Labour government elected in 2024, although after almost one year in power it has so far proven elusive.

The Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in Germany stagnated 0 percent in the third quarter of 2025 over the previous quarter. This dataset provides the latest reported value for - Germany GDP Growth Rate - plus previous releases, historical high and low, short-term forecast and long-term prediction, economic calendar, survey consensus and news.

Some analysts and economists recently warned that the United States economy faces a much higher risk of recession should the price of oil rise to $100 per barrel or more. In February 2008, spot crude oil prices closed above $100 per barrel for the first time ever, and since then they have climbed even higher. Meanwhile, according to some surveys of economists, it is highly probable that a recession began in the United States in late 2007 or early 2008. Although the findings in this paper are consistent with the view that the United States economy has become much less sensitive to large changes in oil prices, a simple forecasting exercise using Hamilton's model augmented with the first principal component of 85 macroeconomic variables reveals that a permanent increase in the price of crude oil to $150 per barrel by the end of 2008 could have a significant negative effect on the growth rate of real gross domestic product in the short run. Moreover, the model also predicts that such an increase in oil prices would produce much higher overall and core inflation rates in 2009 than most policymakers expect.

This white paper provides two separate analyses conducted by SCAG staff which present an initial assessment of potential employment and taxable sales implications of the COVID-19 pandemic. A discussion of data and information used in their development is also provided. The pandemic is having severe and unprecedented implications on a wide range of areas and the forecast toolkit of an economist is challenged because, in contrast to the Great Recession, this crisis is driven by a disease rather than financial factors.

Since the beginning of the 21st century, the BRICS countries have been considered the five foremost developing economies in the world. Originally, the term BRIC was used by economists when talking about the emerging economies of Brazil, Russia, India, and China, however these countries have held annual summits since 2009, and the group has expanded to include South Africa since 2010. China has the largest GDP of the BRICS country, at 16.86 trillion U.S. dollars in 2021, while the others are all below three trillion. Combined, the BRICS bloc has a GDP over 25.85 trillion U.S. dollars in 2022, which is slightly more than the United States. BRICS economic development China has consistently been the largest economy of this bloc, and its rapid growth has seen it become the second largest economy in the world, behind the U.S.. China's growth has also been much faster than the other BRICS countries; for example, when compared with the second largest BRICS economy, its GDP was less than double the size of Brazil's in 2000, but is almost six times larger than India's in 2021. Since 2000, the country with the second largest GDP has fluctuated between Brazil, Russia, and India, due to a variety of factors, although India has held this position since 2015 (when the other two experienced recession), and it's growth rate is on track to surpass China's in the coming decade. South Africa has consistently had the smallest economy of the BRICS bloc, and it has just the third largest economy in Africa; its inclusion in this group is due to the fact that it is the most advanced and stable major economy in Africa, and it holds strategic importance due to the financial potential of the continent in the coming decades. Future developments It is predicted that China's GDP will overtake that of the U.S. by the end of the 2020s, to become the largest economy in the world, while some also estimate that India will also overtake the U.S. around the middle of the century. Additionally, the BRICS group is more than just an economic or trading bloc, and its New Development Bank was established in 2014 to invest in sustainable infrastructure and renewable energy across the globe. While relations between its members were often strained or of less significance in the 20th century, their current initiatives have given them a much greater international influence. The traditional great powers represented in the Group of Seven (G7) have seen their international power wane in recent decades, while BRICS countries have seen theirs grow, especially on a regional level. Today, the original BRIC countries combine with the Group of Seven (G7), to make up 11 of the world's 12 largest economies, but it is predicted that they will move further up on this list in the coming decades.

The outcome of any important macroeconomic policy change is the net effect of forces operating on different parts of the economy. A central challenge facing policymakers is how to assess the relative strength of those forces. Economists have a range of tools that can be used to make such assessments. Dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) models are the leading tool for making such assessments in an open and transparent manner. We review the state of mainstream DSGE models before the financial crisis and the Great Recession. We then describe how DSGE models are estimated and evaluated. We address the question of why DSGE modelers—like most other economists and policymakers—failed to predict the financial crisis and the Great Recession, and how DSGE modelers responded to the financial crisis and its aftermath. We discuss how current DSGE models are actually used by policymakers. We then provide a brief response to some criticisms of DSGE models, with special emphasis on criticism by Joseph Stiglitz, and offer some concluding remarks.

Unemployment Rate in Denmark remained unchanged at 2.60 percent in October. This dataset provides - Denmark Unemployment Rate - actual values, historical data, forecast, chart, statistics, economic calendar and news.

In the December 2022 Summary of Economic Projections (SEP), the median projection for four-quarter core PCE inflation in the fourth quarter of 2025 is 2.1 percent. This same SEP has unemployment rising by nine-tenths, to 4.6 percent, by the end of 2023. We assess the plausibility of this projection using a specific nonlinear model that embeds an empirically successful nonlinear Phillips curve specification into a structural model, identifying it via an underutilized data-dependent method. We model core PCE inflation using three components that align with those noted by Chair Powell in his December 14, 2022, press conference: housing, core goods, and core-services-less-housing. Our model projects that conditional on the SEP unemployment rate path and a rapid deceleration of core goods prices, core PCE inflation moderates to only 2.75 percent by the end of 2025: inflation will be higher for longer. A deep recession would be necessary to achieve the SEP’s projected inflation path. A simple reduced-form welfare analysis, which abstracts from any danger of inflation expectations becoming unanchored, suggests that such a recession would not be optimal.

Singapore recorded a real gross domestic product (GDP) growth rate of around 4.4 percent in 2024 compared to the previous year. While up from the previous year, this number is expected to decline in 2025, settling around 2.5 percent in the future. What is GDP? GDP is a measure of a country’s income, and most economists agree that slow but steady GDP growth is best for a developed economy. GDP measures the total value of all goods and services produced within a country during a certain time period. With the highest GDP per capita in ASEAN, Singapore certainly qualifies as developed, meaning that it should target GDP growth around 2 to 3 percent. Singapore’s context Singapore is a small, open economy. As such, it has little influence on, and high exposure to, international trends. For example, a shift in the exchange rate with a major trading partner can have significant effects on the economy. For Singapore, who relies heavily on exports, these kinds of shocks can affect the entire economy. For example, a weaker Singapore dollar would increase GDP by raising net exports, but this would also lead to higher inflation. As a result, policymakers in Singapore have to follow many factors if they want to continue enjoying healthy GDP growth.

The Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in Puerto Rico expanded 2.10 percent in the fourth quarter of 2024 over the same quarter of the previous year. This dataset provides - Puerto Rico GDP Annual Growth Rate - actual values, historical data, forecast, chart, statistics, economic calendar and news.

The Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in Argentina contracted 0.10 percent in the second quarter of 2025 over the previous quarter. This dataset provides - Argentina GDP Growth Rate - actual values, historical data, forecast, chart, statistics, economic calendar and news.

The Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in Austria expanded 0.10 percent in the third quarter of 2025 over the previous quarter. This dataset provides - Austria GDP Growth Rate - actual values, historical data, forecast, chart, statistics, economic calendar and news.

The Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in Mozambique contracted 0.90 percent in the second quarter of 2025 over the same quarter of the previous year. This dataset provides the latest reported value for - Mozambique GDP Annual Growth Rate - plus previous releases, historical high and low, short-term forecast and long-term prediction, economic calendar, survey consensus and news.