Over the past 30 years, the birth rate in the United States has been steadily declining, and in 2022, there were 11 births per 1,000 of the population. In 1990, this figure stood at 16.7 births per 1,000 of the population. Demographics have an impact The average birth rate in the U.S. may be falling, but when broken down along ethnic and economic lines, a different picture is painted: Native Hawaiian and other Pacific Islander women saw the highest birth rate in 2022 among all ethnicities, and Asian women and white women both saw the lowest birth rate. Additionally, the higher the family income, the lower the birth rate; families making between 15,000 and 24,999 U.S. dollars annually had the highest birth rate of any income bracket in the States. Life expectancy at birth In addition to the declining birth rate in the U.S., the total life expectancy at birth has also reached its lowest value in recent years. Studies have shown that the life expectancy of both men and women in the United States has declined as of 2021. Declines in life expectancy, like declines in birth rates, may indicate that there are social and economic factors negatively influencing the overall population health and well-being of the country.

This paper documents a set of facts about the dramatic decline in birth rates in the United States between 2007 and 2020 and explores possible explanations for it. The overall reduction in the birth rate reflects both very large declines within certain groups of women, including teens and Hispanic women – and smaller declines among demographic groups that comprise a large population share, including college-educated white women. We explore potential economic, policy, and social factors that might be responsible for the overall decline. We conclude from our empirical examination of possible factors that there is not a readily identifiable economic or policy factor or set of factors this is likely responsible for a substantial share of the decline. Instead, the patterns observed suggest that widespread, hard to quantify changes in preferences for having children, aspirations for life, and the nature of parenting are more likely behind the recent decline in US births. We conclude with a brief discussion about the societal consequences for a declining birth rate and what the United States might do about it.

In the United States, the crude birth rate in 1800 was 48.3 live births per thousand people, meaning that 4.8 percent of the population had been born in that year. Between 1815 and 1825 the crude birth rate jumped from 46.5 to 54.7 (possibly due to Florida becoming a part of the US, but this is unclear), but from this point until the Second World War the crude birth rate dropped gradually, reaching 19.2 in 1935. Through the 1940s, 50s and 60s the US experienced it's baby boom, and the birth rate reached 24.1 in 1955, before dropping again until 1980. From the 1980s until today the birth rate's decline has slowed, and is expected to reach twelve in 2020, meaning that just over 1 percent of the population will be born in 2020.

The fertility rate of a country is the average number of children that women from that country will have throughout their reproductive years. In the United States in 1800, the average woman of childbearing age would have seven children over the course of their lifetime. As factors such as technology, hygiene, medicine and education improved, women were having fewer children than before, reaching just two children per woman in 1940. This changed quite dramatically in the aftermath of the Second World War, rising sharply to over 3.5 children per woman in 1960 (children born between 1946 and 1964 are nowadays known as the 'Baby Boomer' generation, and they make up roughly twenty percent of todays US population). Due to the end of the baby boom and increased access to contraception, fertility reached it's lowest point in the US in 1980, where it was just 1.77. It did however rise to over two children per woman between 1995 and 2010, although it is expected to drop again by 2020, to just 1.78.

Chart and table of the U.S. birth rate from 1950 to 2025. United Nations projections are also included through the year 2100.

While the standard image of the nuclear family with two parents and 2.5 children has persisted in the American imagination, the number of births in the U.S. has steadily been decreasing since 1990, with about 3.67 million babies born in 2022. In 1990, this figure was 4.16 million. Birth and replacement rates A country’s birth rate is defined as the number of live births per 1,000 inhabitants, and it is this particularly important number that has been decreasing over the past few decades. The declining birth rate is not solely an American problem, with EU member states showing comparable rates to the U.S. Additionally, each country has what is called a “replacement rate.” The replacement rate is the rate of fertility needed to keep a population stable when compared with the death rate. In the U.S., the fertility rate needed to keep the population stable is around 2.1 children per woman, but this figure was at 1.67 in 2022. Falling birth rates Currently, there is much discussion as to what exactly is causing the birth rate to decrease in the United States. There seem to be several factors in play, including longer life expectancies, financial concerns (such as the economic crisis of 2008), and an increased focus on careers, all of which are causing people to wait longer to start a family. How international governments will handle falling populations remains to be seen, but what is clear is that the declining birth rate is a multifaceted problem without an easy solution.

Graph and download economic data for Fertility Rate, Total for the United States (SPDYNTFRTINUSA) from 1960 to 2022 about fertility, rate, and USA.

Today, globally, women of childbearing age have an average of approximately 2.2 children over the course of their lifetime. In pre-industrial times, most women could expect to have somewhere between five and ten live births throughout their lifetime; however, the demographic transition then sees fertility rates fall significantly. Looking ahead, it is believed that the global fertility rate will fall below replacement level in the 2050s, which will eventually lead to population decline when life expectancy plateaus. Recent decades Between the 1950s and 1970s, the global fertility rate was roughly five children per woman - this was partly due to the post-WWII baby boom in many countries, on top of already-high rates in less-developed countries. The drop around 1960 can be attributed to China's "Great Leap Forward", where famine and disease in the world's most populous country saw the global fertility rate drop by roughly 0.5 children per woman. Between the 1970s and today, fertility rates fell consistently, although the rate of decline noticeably slowed as the baby boomer generation then began having their own children. Replacement level fertility Replacement level fertility, i.e. the number of children born per woman that a population needs for long-term stability, is approximately 2.1 children per woman. Populations may continue to grow naturally despite below-replacement level fertility, due to reduced mortality and increased life expectancy, however, these will plateau with time and then population decline will occur. It is believed that the global fertility rate will drop below replacement level in the mid-2050s, although improvements in healthcare and living standards will see population growth continue into the 2080s when the global population will then start falling.

The statistic shows the 20 countries with the lowest fertility rates in 2024. All figures are estimates. In 2024, the fertility rate in Taiwan was estimated to be at 1.11 children per woman, making it the lowest fertility rate worldwide. Fertility rate The fertility rate is the average number of children born per woman of child-bearing age in a country. Usually, a woman aged between 15 and 45 is considered to be in her child-bearing years. The fertility rate of a country provides an insight into its economic state, as well as the level of health and education of its population. Developing countries usually have a higher fertility rate due to lack of access to birth control and contraception, and to women usually foregoing a higher education, or even any education at all, in favor of taking care of housework. Many families in poorer countries also need their children to help provide for the family by starting to work early and/or as caretakers for their parents in old age. In developed countries, fertility rates and birth rates are usually much lower, as birth control is easier to obtain and women often choose a career before becoming a mother. Additionally, if the number of women of child-bearing age declines, so does the fertility rate of a country. As can be seen above, countries like Hong Kong are a good example for women leaving the patriarchal structures and focusing on their own career instead of becoming a mother at a young age, causing a decline of the country’s fertility rate. A look at the fertility rate per woman worldwide by income group also shows that women with a low income tend to have more children than those with a high income. The United States are neither among the countries with the lowest, nor among those with the highest fertility rate, by the way. At 2.08 children per woman, the fertility rate in the US has been continuously slightly below the global average of about 2.4 children per woman over the last decade.

United States Total Fertility Rate: Black data was reported at 1,639.000 % in 2022. This records a decrease from the previous number of 1,675.000 % for 2021. United States Total Fertility Rate: Black data is updated yearly, averaging 2,072.250 % from Dec 1985 (Median) to 2022, with 38 observations. The data reached an all-time high of 2,480.000 % in 1990 and a record low of 1,639.000 % in 2022. United States Total Fertility Rate: Black data remains active status in CEIC and is reported by Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. The data is categorized under Global Database’s United States – Table US.G013: Fertility Rate.

United States Birth Rate: White data was reported at 9.500 % in 2022. This records a decrease from the previous number of 9.700 % for 2021. United States Birth Rate: White data is updated yearly, averaging 13.700 % from Dec 1985 (Median) to 2022, with 38 observations. The data reached an all-time high of 15.800 % in 1990 and a record low of 9.400 % in 2020. United States Birth Rate: White data remains active status in CEIC and is reported by Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. The data is categorized under Global Database’s United States – Table US.G008: Birth Rate.

For most of the past two centuries, falling birth rates have been associated with societal progress. During the demographic transition, where pre-industrial societies modernize in terms of fertility and mortality, falling death rates, especially among infants and children, are the first major change. In response, as more children survive into adulthood, women have fewer children as the need to compensate for child mortality declines. This transition has happened at different times across the world and is an ongoing process, with early industrial countries being the first to transition, and Sub-Saharan African countries being the most recent to do so. Additionally, some Asian countries (particularly China through government policy) have gone through their demographic transitions at a much faster pace than those deemed more developed. Today, in countries such as Japan, Italy, and Germany, birth rates have fallen well below death rates; this is no longer considered a positive demographic trend, as it leads to natural population decline, and may create an over-aged population that could place a burden on healthcare systems.

This is the code replication archive for the paper, "The COVID-19 Baby Bump in the United States," published in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences. The underlying natality microdata are restricted, so this archive contains only the code to replicate our analysis.We use natality microdata covering the universe of U.S. births for 2015-2021 and California births from 2015 through February 2023 to examine childbearing responses to the COVID-19 pandemic. We find that 60% of the 2020 decline in U.S. fertility rates was driven by sharp reductions in births to foreign-born mothers although births to this group comprised only 22% of all U.S. births in 2019. This decline started in January 2020. In contrast, the COVID-19 recession resulted in an overall “baby bump” among U.S.-born mothers which marked the first reversal in declining fertility rates since the Great Recession. Births to U.S.-born mothers fell by 31,000 in 2020 relative to a pre-pandemic trend but increased by 71,000 in 2021. The data for California suggest that U.S. births remained elevated through February 2023. The baby bump was most pronounced for first births and women under age 25, suggesting that the pandemic led some women to start families earlier. Above age 25, the baby bump was most pronounced for women ages 30-34 and women with a college education. The 2021-2022 baby bump is especially remarkable given the large declines in fertility rates that would have been projected by standard statistical models.

In 2021, the birth rate in the United States was highest in families that had under 10,000 U.S. dollars in income per year, at 62.75 births per 1,000 women. As the income scale increases, the birth rate decreases, with families making 200,000 U.S. dollars or more per year having the second-lowest birth rate, at 47.57 births per 1,000 women. Income and the birth rate Income and high birth rates are strongly linked, not just in the United States, but around the world. Women in lower income brackets tend to have higher birth rates across the board. There are many factors at play in birth rates, such as the education level of the mother, ethnicity of the mother, and even where someone lives. The fertility rate in the United States The fertility rate in the United States has declined in recent years, and it seems that more and more women are waiting longer to begin having children. Studies have shown that the average age of the mother at the birth of their first child in the United States was 27.4 years old, although this figure varies for different ethnic origins.

United States Birth Rate: Teenager: 15 to 17: White data was reported at 3.100 % in 2022. This records a decrease from the previous number of 3.200 % for 2021. United States Birth Rate: Teenager: 15 to 17: White data is updated yearly, averaging 19.550 % from Dec 1985 (Median) to 2022, with 38 observations. The data reached an all-time high of 30.500 % in 1991 and a record low of 3.100 % in 2022. United States Birth Rate: Teenager: 15 to 17: White data remains active status in CEIC and is reported by Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. The data is categorized under Global Database’s United States – Table US.G008: Birth Rate.

United States Birth Rate: 20 to 24: White data was reported at 48.300 % in 2022. This records a decrease from the previous number of 52.000 % for 2021. United States Birth Rate: 20 to 24: White data is updated yearly, averaging 101.950 % from Dec 1985 (Median) to 2022, with 38 observations. The data reached an all-time high of 109.800 % in 1990 and a record low of 48.300 % in 2022. United States Birth Rate: 20 to 24: White data remains active status in CEIC and is reported by Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. The data is categorized under Global Database’s United States – Table US.G008: Birth Rate.

Birth Rate: 30 to 34: Asian data was reported at 104.000 % in 2022. This records a decrease from the previous number of 105.000 % for 2021. Birth Rate: 30 to 34: Asian data is updated yearly, averaging 111.200 % from Dec 1985 (Median) to 2022, with 38 observations. The data reached an all-time high of 127.400 % in 2016 and a record low of 92.600 % in 1986. Birth Rate: 30 to 34: Asian data remains active status in CEIC and is reported by Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. The data is categorized under Global Database’s United States – Table US.G008: Birth Rate.

United States Birth Rate: 30 to 34 data was reported at 97.500 % in 2022. This records a decrease from the previous number of 97.600 % for 2021. United States Birth Rate: 30 to 34 data is updated yearly, averaging 95.300 % from Dec 1985 (Median) to 2022, with 38 observations. The data reached an all-time high of 102.700 % in 2016 and a record low of 69.100 % in 1985. United States Birth Rate: 30 to 34 data remains active status in CEIC and is reported by Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. The data is categorized under Global Database’s United States – Table US.G008: Birth Rate.

United States Total Fertility Rate data was reported at 1,656.500 % in 2022. This records a decrease from the previous number of 1,664.000 % for 2021. United States Total Fertility Rate data is updated yearly, averaging 1,977.000 % from Dec 1985 (Median) to 2022, with 38 observations. The data reached an all-time high of 2,120.000 % in 2007 and a record low of 1,641.500 % in 2020. United States Total Fertility Rate data remains active status in CEIC and is reported by Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. The data is categorized under Global Database’s United States – Table US.G013: Fertility Rate.

United States Birth Rate: Teenager: 18 to 19: Native Hawaiian/Oth Pacific Islander data was reported at 40.700 % in 2022. This records a decrease from the previous number of 44.600 % for 2021. United States Birth Rate: Teenager: 18 to 19: Native Hawaiian/Oth Pacific Islander data is updated yearly, averaging 50.600 % from Dec 2016 (Median) to 2022, with 7 observations. The data reached an all-time high of 55.300 % in 2016 and a record low of 40.700 % in 2022. United States Birth Rate: Teenager: 18 to 19: Native Hawaiian/Oth Pacific Islander data remains active status in CEIC and is reported by Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. The data is categorized under Global Database’s United States – Table US.G008: Birth Rate.