In May 2025, global inflation rates and central bank interest rates showed significant variation across major economies. Most economies initiated interest rate cuts from mid-2024 due to declining inflationary pressures. The U.S., UK, and EU central banks followed a consistent pattern of regular rate reductions throughout late 2024. In early 2025, Russia maintained the highest interest rate at 20 percent, while Japan retained the lowest at 0.5 percent. Varied inflation rates across major economies The inflation landscape varies considerably among major economies. China had the lowest inflation rate at -0.1 percent in May 2025. In contrast, Russia maintained a high inflation rate of 9.9 percent. These figures align with broader trends observed in early 2025, where China had the lowest inflation rate among major developed and emerging economies, while Russia's rate remained the highest. Central bank responses and economic indicators Central banks globally implemented aggressive rate hikes throughout 2022-23 to combat inflation. The European Central Bank exemplified this trend, raising rates from 0 percent in January 2022 to 4.5 percent by September 2023. A coordinated shift among major central banks began in mid-2024, with the ECB, Bank of England, and Federal Reserve initiating rate cuts, with forecasts suggesting further cuts through 2025 and 2026.

The benchmark interest rate in the United States was last recorded at 4.50 percent. This dataset provides the latest reported value for - United States Fed Funds Rate - plus previous releases, historical high and low, short-term forecast and long-term prediction, economic calendar, survey consensus and news.

The Volcker Shock was a period of historically high interest rates precipitated by Federal Reserve Chairperson Paul Volcker's decision to raise the central bank's key interest rate, the Fed funds effective rate, during the first three years of his term. Volcker was appointed chairperson of the Fed in August 1979 by President Jimmy Carter, as replacement for William Miller, who Carter had made his treasury secretary. Volcker was one of the most hawkish (supportive of tighter monetary policy to stem inflation) members of the Federal Reserve's committee, and quickly set about changing the course of monetary policy in the U.S. in order to quell inflation. The Volcker Shock is remembered for bringing an end to over a decade of high inflation in the United States, prompting a deep recession and high unemployment, and for spurring on debt defaults among developing countries in Latin America who had borrowed in U.S. dollars.

Monetary tightening and the recessions of the early '80s

Beginning in October 1979, Volcker's Fed tightened monetary policy by raising interest rates. This decision had the effect of depressing demand and slowing down the U.S. economy, as credit became more expensive for households and businesses. The Fed funds rate, the key overnight rate at which banks lend their excess reserves to each other, rose as high as 17.6 percent in early 1980. The rate was allowed to fall back below 10 percent following this first peak, however, due to worries that inflation was not falling fast enough, a second cycle of monetary tightening was embarked upon starting in August of 1980. The rate would reach its all-time peak in June of 1981, at 19.1 percent. The second recession sparked by these hikes was far deeper than the 1980 recession, with unemployment peaking at 10.8 percent in December 1980, the highest level since The Great Depression. This recession would drive inflation to a low point during Volcker's terms of 2.5 percent in August 1983.

The legacy of the Volcker Shock

By the end of Volcker's terms as Fed Chair, inflation was at a manageable rate of around four percent, while unemployment had fallen under six percent, as the economy grew and business confidence returned. While supporters of Volcker's actions point to these numbers as proof of the efficacy of his actions, critics have claimed that there were less harmful ways that inflation could have been brought under control. The recessions of the early 1980s are cited as accelerating deindustrialization in the U.S., as manufacturing jobs lost in 'rust belt' states such as Michigan, Ohio, and Pennsylvania never returned during the years of recovery. The Volcker Shock was also a driving factor behind the Latin American debt crises of the 1980s, as governments in the region defaulted on debts which they had incurred in U.S. dollars. Debates about the validity of using interest rate hikes to get inflation under control have recently re-emerged due to the inflationary pressures facing the U.S. following the Coronavirus pandemic and the Federal Reserve's subsequent decision to embark on a course of monetary tightening.

In June 2024, the European Central Bank (ECB) began reducing its fixed interest rate for the first time since 2016, implementing a series of cuts. The rate decreased from 4.5 percent to 3.15 percent by year-end: a 0.25 percentage point cut in June, followed by additional reductions in September, October, and December. The central bank implemented other cuts in early 2025, setting the rate at 2.4 percent in April 2025. This marked a significant shift from the previous rate hike cycle, which began in July 2022 when the ECB raised rates to 0.5 percent and subsequently increased them almost monthly, reaching 4.5 percent by December 2023 - the highest level since the 2007-2008 global financial crisis. How does this ensure liquidity? Banks typically hold only a fraction of their capital in cash, measured by metrics like the Tier 1 capital ratio. Since this ratio is low, banks prefer to allocate most of their capital to revenue-generating loans. When their cash reserves fall too low, banks borrow from the ECB to cover short-term liquidity needs. On the other hand, commercial banks can also deposit excess funds with the ECB at a lower interest rate. Reasons for fluctuations
The ECB’s primary mandate is to maintain price stability. The Euro area inflation rate is, in theory, the key indicator guiding the ECB's actions. When the fixed interest rate is lower, commercial banks are more likely to borrow from the ECB, increasing the money supply and, in turn, driving inflation higher. When inflation rises, the ECB increases the fixed interest rate, which slows borrowing and helps to reduce inflation.

The U.S. federal funds effective rate underwent a dramatic reduction in early 2020 in response to the COVID-19 pandemic. The rate plummeted from 1.58 percent in February 2020 to 0.65 percent in March, and further decreased to 0.05 percent in April. This sharp reduction, accompanied by the Federal Reserve's quantitative easing program, was implemented to stabilize the economy during the global health crisis. After maintaining historically low rates for nearly two years, the Federal Reserve began a series of rate hikes in early 2022, with the rate moving from 0.33 percent in April 2022 to 5.33 percent in August 2023. The rate remained unchanged for over a year, before the Federal Reserve initiated its first rate cut in nearly three years in September 2024, bringing the rate to 5.13 percent. By December 2024, the rate was cut to 4.48 percent, signaling a shift in monetary policy in the second half of 2024. In January 2025, the Federal Reserve implemented another cut, setting the rate at 4.33 percent, which remained unchanged throughout the following months. What is the federal funds effective rate? The U.S. federal funds effective rate determines the interest rate paid by depository institutions, such as banks and credit unions, that lend reserve balances to other depository institutions overnight. Changing the effective rate in times of crisis is a common way to stimulate the economy, as it has a significant impact on the whole economy, such as economic growth, employment, and inflation. Central bank policy rates The adjustment of interest rates in response to the COVID-19 pandemic was a coordinated global effort. In early 2020, central banks worldwide implemented aggressive monetary easing policies to combat the economic crisis. The U.S. Federal Reserve's dramatic reduction of its federal funds rate - from 1.58 percent in February 2020 to 0.05 percent by April - mirrored similar actions taken by central banks globally. While these low rates remained in place throughout 2021, mounting inflationary pressures led to a synchronized tightening cycle beginning in 2022, with central banks pushing rates to multi-year highs. By mid-2024, as inflation moderated across major economies, central banks began implementing their first rate cuts in several years, with the U.S. Federal Reserve, Bank of England, and European Central Bank all easing monetary policy.

Inflation Rate in the United States increased to 2.70 percent in June from 2.40 percent in May of 2025. This dataset provides - United States Inflation Rate - actual values, historical data, forecast, chart, statistics, economic calendar and news.

The U.S. federal funds rate peaked in 2023 at its highest level since the 2007-08 financial crisis, reaching 5.33 percent by December 2023. A significant shift in monetary policy occurred in the second half of 2024, with the Federal Reserve implementing regular rate cuts. By December 2024, the rate had declined to 4.48 percent. What is a central bank rate? The federal funds rate determines the cost of overnight borrowing between banks, allowing them to maintain necessary cash reserves and ensure financial system liquidity. When this rate rises, banks become more inclined to hold rather than lend money, reducing the money supply. While this decreased lending slows economic activity, it helps control inflation by limiting the circulation of money in the economy. Historic perspective The federal funds rate historically follows cyclical patterns, falling during recessions and gradually rising during economic recoveries. Some central banks, notably the European Central Bank, went beyond traditional monetary policy by implementing both aggressive asset purchases and negative interest rates.

The benchmark interest rate in Russia was last recorded at 18 percent. This dataset provides the latest reported value for - Russia Interest Rate - plus previous releases, historical high and low, short-term forecast and long-term prediction, economic calendar, survey consensus and news.

The benchmark interest rate in Brazil was last recorded at 15 percent. This dataset provides - Brazil Interest Rate - actual values, historical data, forecast, chart, statistics, economic calendar and news.

The benchmark interest rate In the Euro Area was last recorded at 2.15 percent. This dataset provides - Euro Area Interest Rate - actual values, historical data, forecast, chart, statistics, economic calendar and news.

Graph and download economic data for 5-Year Breakeven Inflation Rate (T5YIE) from 2003-01-02 to 2025-07-30 about spread, interest rate, interest, 5-year, inflation, rate, and USA.

August 2024 marked a significant shift in the UK's monetary policy, as it saw the first reduction in the official bank base interest rate since August 2023. This change came after a period of consistent rate hikes that began in late 2021. In a bid to minimize the economic effects of the COVID-19 pandemic, the Bank of England cut the official bank base rate in March 2020 to a record low of *** percent. This historic low came just one week after the Bank of England cut rates from **** percent to **** percent in a bid to prevent mass job cuts in the United Kingdom. It remained at *** percent until December 2021 and was increased to one percent in May 2022 and to **** percent in October 2022. After that, the bank rate increased almost on a monthly basis, reaching **** percent in August 2023. It wasn't until August 2024 that the first rate decrease since the previous year occurred, signaling a potential shift in monetary policy. Why do central banks adjust interest rates? Central banks, including the Bank of England, adjust interest rates to manage economic stability and control inflation. Their strategies involve a delicate balance between two main approaches. When central banks raise interest rates, their goal is to cool down an overheated economy. Higher rates curb excessive spending and borrowing, which helps to prevent runaway inflation. This approach is typically used when the economy is growing too quickly or when inflation is rising above desired levels. Conversely, when central banks lower interest rates, they aim to encourage borrowing and investment. This strategy is employed to stimulate economic growth during periods of slowdown or recession. Lower rates make it cheaper for businesses and individuals to borrow money, which can lead to increased spending and investment. This dual approach allows central banks to maintain a balance between promoting growth and controlling inflation, ensuring long-term economic stability. Additionally, adjusting interest rates can influence currency values, impacting international trade and investment flows, further underscoring their critical role in a nation's economic health. Recent interest rate trends Between 2021 and 2024, most advanced and emerging economies experienced a period of regular interest rate hikes. This trend was driven by several factors, including persistent supply chain disruptions, high energy prices, and robust demand pressures. These elements combined to create significant inflationary trends, prompting central banks to raise rates in an effort to temper spending and borrowing. However, in 2024, a shift began to occur in global monetary policy. The European Central Bank (ECB) was among the first major central banks to reverse this trend by cutting interest rates. This move signaled a change in approach aimed at addressing growing economic slowdowns and supporting growth.

Brazil's inflation rate and central bank interest rate have experienced significant fluctuations from 2018 to 2025, reflecting broader global economic trends. The country's inflation peaked at ***** percent in April 2020, followed by a gradual decline and subsequent rise, while the central bank adjusted its Selic rate in response to these economic dynamics. This pattern of volatility and monetary policy adjustments mirrors similar experiences in other major economies during the same period. Global context of inflation and interest rates Brazil's economic indicators align with the global trend of rising inflation and subsequent central bank responses observed in many countries. Like Brazil, other major economies such as the United States, United Kingdom, and European Union implemented aggressive rate hikes throughout 2022-2023 to combat inflationary pressures. However, a coordinated shift began in mid-2024, with many central banks initiating rate cuts. This global trend is reflected in Brazil's monetary policy decisions, as the country began reducing its Selic rate in August 2023 after maintaining it at ***** percent for several months. Comparison with other economies While Brazil's inflation rate reached **** percent in April 2025, other major economies exhibited varying levels of inflationary pressure. For instance, China reported a deflationary rate of **** percent, while Russia maintained a high inflation rate of **** percent during the same period. The United Kingdom, which experienced similar volatility in its inflation rate, saw it peak at *** percent in October 2022 before moderating to *** percent by September 2024. These comparisons highlight the diverse economic conditions and policy responses across different countries, with Brazil's experience falling somewhere in the middle of this spectrum.

The benchmark interest rate in the United Kingdom was last recorded at 4.25 percent. This dataset provides - United Kingdom Interest Rate - actual values, historical data, forecast, chart, statistics, economic calendar and news.

Inflation Nowcasting Monthly Month-Over-Month is a part of the Inflation Nowcasting indicator of the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.

Core consumer prices in the United States increased 2.90 percent in June of 2025 over the same month in the previous year. This dataset provides - United States Core Inflation Rate - actual values, historical data, forecast, chart, statistics, economic calendar and news.

Revenue growth for the Finance and Insurance sector has varied in recent years, as a result of differing economic trends. The sector plays a vital role in facilitating necessary financial transactions between consumers, businesses and government agencies. The core services provided by operators in this sector include providing insurance products needed by businesses and consumers to legally operate corporations and assets; offering, borrowing and depository services needed to finance new projects and safely save money; and investing to create and preserve investors' assets. A wide range of operators in the sector benefited from improving macroeconomic conditions over the past five years. For example, In 2022, the Fed increased interest rates in an effort to curb historically high inflation. Although higher interest rates increased investment income from fixed-income securities for the finance and insurance sector. Recently in 2024, the Fed cut interest rates as inflationary pressured have eased. Reduced interest rates will enable consumers to borrow money at lower interest rates which will increase loan demand although reduced rates will hinder investment income from fixed-income securities for the sector. The Fed is anticipated to cut rates further in 2025, boosting loan demand but hindering interest income from each loan. In addition, the growing prevalence of emerging technologies such as AI and data analytic tools has streamlined operations and helped reduce operational costs. These tools help industry companies identify trends and potential risks more efficiently. Also the growth of mobile and digital platforms has increased customer satisfaction and accessibility, boosting demand for finance and insurance products and services. Over the past five years, industry revenue grew at a CAGR of 3.8% to $7.4 trillion, including a 2.9% jump in 2025 alone, with profit climbing to 23.6% in the same year. Sector revenue will increase at a CAGR of 2.5% to $8.4 trillion over the five years to 2030. As the economy continues to improve, per capita disposable income is expected to increase. This will likely lead to increased financial activity by consumers, which will likely be processed and facilitated by operators in the sector. The Federal Reserve is also anticipated to cut interest rates further. Reduced interest rates will reduce interest income for operators but will increase the volume of loans. In addition, the acquisition of financial technology start-ups to compete in a changing technological and financial environment will increase.

In 2020, the inflation rate in Brazil amounted to about 3.21 percent compared to the previous year, a slight increase from the previous year’s 3.73 percent, but a large improvement compared to 2015 with more than 9 percent.

Superlative Brazil

Brazil is not only one of the largest countries in the world, it is also one of the largest economies and a member of the so-called BRIC states, four up-and-coming emerging economies. Unfortunately, Brazil also struggles due to an on-going recession; In 2017, the majority of Brazilians described the state of the country’s economy as “bad”.

The state of Brazil’s economy

Brazil’s mixed economy suffered a severe political and economic crisis in 2014 that only ended in 2016. The country’s GDP slumped dramatically and inflation skyrocketed. As of today, Brazil has recovered, GDP is on the rise again, and inflation is below four percent – however, as a result of the recession that saw millions of job cuts, unemployment is at an all-time high.

Brokers benefit in these times as the higher the business's net profit, the higher the valuation, meaning the higher commission earned. However, uncertainty-inducing events like Brexit, COVID-19 and high inflation have severely dented business confidence leading to a dip in business transactions. As a result, industry revenue is estimated to fall at a compound annual rate of 5% to £268.1 million over the five years through 2024-25. The COVID-19 pandemic forced businesses to shift away from expansion and towards cost-cutting and restructuring, limiting the need for brokers. The high-inflation landscape in 2022 and 2023 led to the Bank of England raising the base rate to its highest since the global financial crisis. High-interest rates weigh on buyers' purchasing power, constraining brokers' commissions. Although larger brokers like Christie Group were able to maintain revenue growth by raising fees in 2022-23, having less exposure to price competition thanks to their established brand image, smaller players saw their revenue drop in line with M&A activity. With a renewed decline in M&A activity during 2023-24 amid rising interest rates and inflation, even Christie Group cited a decrease in its transactional brokerage incomes. 2024-25 is set to mark a turnaround for the industry as business confidence recovers in anticipation of interest rate cuts and subsiding economic uncertainty, driving revenue growth of 3.1%. Over the five years through 2029-30, business brokers' revenue is estimated to grow at a compound annual rate of 5% to £342.3 million. SMEs are positioned for solid growth in the coming years as interest rates come down, alleviating cost of debt pressures, and economic growth picks up. This will lift revenue growth through greater M&A activity as they seek to expand. The critical change for business brokers will be the ability to leverage artificial intelligence (AI) powered tools and data analytics to raise productivity. AI and data analytics will boost the efficiency of the day-to-day tasks of brokers, like market research, valuations, matching buyers and sellers and due diligence. Brokers can become more client-focused and focus their time on strategic activities like deal negotiation, client engagement and relationship building.

The benchmark interest rate in Mexico was last recorded at 8 percent. This dataset provides - Mexico Interest Rate - actual values, historical data, forecast, chart, statistics, economic calendar and news.