The United States recorded a Government Debt to GDP of 124.30 percent of the country's Gross Domestic Product in 2024. This dataset provides - United States Government Debt To GDP - actual values, historical data, forecast, chart, statistics, economic calendar and news.

This lecture focuses on the costs of public debt when safe interest rates are low. I develop four main arguments. First, I show that the current US situation, in which safe interest rates are expected to remain below growth rates for a long time, is more the historical norm than the exception. If the future is like the past, this implies that debt rollovers, that is the issuance of debt without a later increase in taxes, may well be feasible. Put bluntly, public debt may have no fiscal cost. Second, even in the absence of fiscal costs, public debt reduces capital accumulation, and may therefore have welfare costs. I show that welfare costs may be smaller than typically assumed. The reason is that the safe rate is the risk-adjusted rate of return to capital. If it is lower than the growth rate, it indicates that the risk-adjusted rate of return to capital is in fact low. The average risky rate however also plays a role. I show how both the average risky rate and the average safe rate determine welfare outcomes. Third, I look at the evidence on the average risky rate, i.e., the average marginal product of capital. While the measured rate of earnings has been and is still quite high, the evidence from asset markets suggests that the marginal product of capital may be lower, with the difference reflecting either mismeasurement of capital or rents. This matters for debt: the lower the marginal product, the lower the welfare cost of debt. Fourth, I discuss a number of arguments against high public debt, and in particular the existence of multiple equilibria where investors believe debt to be risky and, by requiring a risk premium, increase the fiscal burden and make debt effectively more risky. This is a very relevant argument, but it does not have straightforward implications for the appropriate level of debt. My purpose in the lecture is not to argue for more public debt, especially in the current political environment. It is to have a richer discussion of the costs of debt and of fiscal policy than is currently the case.

The long-term interest rate on government debt is a key indicator of the economic health of a country. The rate reflects financial market actors' perceptions of the creditworthiness of the government and the health of the domestic economy, with a strong and robust economic outlook allowing governments to borrow for essential investments in their economies, thereby boosting long-term growth.

The Euro and converging interest rates in the early 2000s

In the case of many Eurozone countries, the early 2000s were a time where this virtuous cycle of economic growth reduced the interest rates they paid on government debt to less than 5 percent, a dramatic change from the pre-Euro era of the 1990s. With the outbreak of the Global Financial Crisis and the subsequent deep recession, however, the economies of Greece, Italy, Spain, Portugal, and Ireland were seen to be much weaker than previously assumed by lenders. Interest rates on their debt gradually began to rise during the crisis, before rapidly increasing beginning in 2010, as first Greece and then Ireland and Portugal lost the faith of financial markets.

The Eurozone crisis

This market adjustment was initially triggered due to revelations by the Greek government that the country's budget deficit was much larger than had been previously expected, with investors seeing the country as an unreliable debtor. The crisis, which became known as the Eurozone crisis, spread to Ireland and then Portugal, as lenders cut-off lending to highly indebted Eurozone members with weak fundamentals. During this period there was also intense speculation that due to unsustainable debt loads, some countries would have to leave the Euro currency area, further increasing the interest on their debt. Interest rates on their debt began to come back down after ECB Chief Mario Draghi signaled to markets that the central bank would intervene to keep the states within the currency area in his famous "whatever it takes" speech in Summer 2012.

The return of higher interest rates in the post-COVID era

Since this period of extremely high interest rates on government debt for these member states, the interest they are charged for borrowing has shrunk considerably, as the financial markets were flooded with "cheap money" due to the policy measures of central banks in the aftermath of the financial crisis, such as near-zero policy rates and quantitative easing. As interest rates have risen to combat inflation since 2022, so have the interest rates on government debt in the Eurozone also risen, however, these rises are modest compared to during the Eurozone crisis.

Graph and download economic data for Federal Debt: Total Public Debt (GFDEBTN) from Q1 1966 to Q1 2025 about public, debt, federal, government, and USA.

Graph and download economic data for Federal government current expenditures: Interest payments (A091RC1Q027SBEA) from Q1 1947 to Q1 2025 about payments, expenditures, federal, government, interest, GDP, and USA.

Uruguay Gross Debt: Public Sector: By Types of Interest Rate: Net Deposits and Other Liabilities data was reported at 975.778 USD mn in Jun 2018. This records an increase from the previous number of 926.201 USD mn for Mar 2018. Uruguay Gross Debt: Public Sector: By Types of Interest Rate: Net Deposits and Other Liabilities data is updated quarterly, averaging 1.301 USD bn from Dec 2000 (Median) to Jun 2018, with 71 observations. The data reached an all-time high of 2.801 USD bn in Sep 2015 and a record low of 682.831 USD mn in Dec 2003. Uruguay Gross Debt: Public Sector: By Types of Interest Rate: Net Deposits and Other Liabilities data remains active status in CEIC and is reported by Central Bank of Uruguay. The data is categorized under Global Database’s Uruguay – Table UY.F012: Government Debt: By Type of Interest Rate.

As of October 2024, the United States government has a monthly interest rate of *** percent on its debt, continuing an upward trend in interest rates that began at the beginning of 2022. In April 2024, U.S. debt reached ***** trillion U.S. dollars.

Uruguay Gross Debt: Public Sector: By Types of Interest Rate: Floating: Inter-American Development Bank (IADB) data was reported at 1.592 USD bn in Jun 2018. This records an increase from the previous number of 1.581 USD bn for Mar 2018. Uruguay Gross Debt: Public Sector: By Types of Interest Rate: Floating: Inter-American Development Bank (IADB) data is updated quarterly, averaging 1.531 USD bn from Dec 2000 (Median) to Jun 2018, with 71 observations. The data reached an all-time high of 2.247 USD bn in Jun 2009 and a record low of 1.322 USD bn in Mar 2013. Uruguay Gross Debt: Public Sector: By Types of Interest Rate: Floating: Inter-American Development Bank (IADB) data remains active status in CEIC and is reported by Central Bank of Uruguay. The data is categorized under Global Database’s Uruguay – Table UY.F012: Government Debt: By Type of Interest Rate.

United States CBO Projection: Federal Debt Held by Public: Average Interest Rate data was reported at 3.448 % in 2028. This records an increase from the previous number of 3.442 % for 2027. United States CBO Projection: Federal Debt Held by Public: Average Interest Rate data is updated yearly, averaging 3.289 % from Sep 2014 (Median) to 2028, with 15 observations. The data reached an all-time high of 3.531 % in 2023 and a record low of 1.654 % in 2015. United States CBO Projection: Federal Debt Held by Public: Average Interest Rate data remains active status in CEIC and is reported by Congressional Budget Office. The data is categorized under Global Database’s USA – Table US.F006: Federal Debt: Projection: Congressional Budget Office.

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Debt Financing Market Size 2025-2029

The debt financing market size is forecast to increase by USD 7.89 billion at a CAGR of 6.4% between 2024 and 2029.

The market is experiencing significant growth, driven by the tax advantages of debt financing for businesses. The ability to deduct interest payments from taxable income makes debt financing an attractive option for companies seeking capital. Another key trend in the market is the increasing collaboration and mergers and acquisitions (M&A) activity, which often involves the use of debt financing to fund transactions. However, it is important to note that collateral may be necessary for some forms of debt financing, adding layer of complexity to the process.
Companies seeking to capitalize on these opportunities must navigate the challenges of securing adequate collateral and managing debt levels to maintain financial health and wellness. Effective debt management strategies, such as optimizing debt structures and maintaining strong credit ratings, will be essential for companies looking to succeed in this dynamic market. Debt financing is a significant component of the regional capital markets, with financial institutions, banks, and insurance companies serving as major players.

What will be the Size of the Debt Financing Market during the forecast period?

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The market encompasses various debt instruments issued by entities to secure funds for business operations and growth. Market dynamics are influenced by several factors, including interest rate cycles, monetary policy, and economic growth. Basel Accords and the Financial Stability Board set standards for financial institutions' risk management and capital adequacy, impacting debt issuance. Government debt, securitization transactions, and various debt instruments like interest rate swaps, loan-to-value ratios, and credit-linked notes, shape the market landscape. Market volatility, driven by factors such as business cycles, credit spreads, and risk appetite, influences investor sentiment. Debt sustainability, fiscal policy, and ESG investing are increasingly important considerations for issuers and investors.
Asset managers are focusing on leveraging technology and data analytics to improve operational efficiency and meet the evolving needs of investors. The market is, however, not without challenges, with regulatory compliance and interest rate risks being major concerns. Overall, the income asset management market in North America is poised for steady growth, driven by the demand for debt financing and wealth management solutions, and the increasing adoption of advanced analytics and ETFs.

How is this Debt Financing Industry segmented?

The debt financing industry research report provides comprehensive data (region-wise segment analysis), with forecasts and estimates in 'USD million' for the period 2025-2029, as well as historical data from 2019-2023 for the following segments.

Source

  Private
  Public


Type

  Long-term
  Short-term
  Long-term


Geography

  North America

    US
    Canada


  Europe

    France
    Germany
    Italy
    Spain
    UK


  APAC

    China
    Japan
    South Korea


  Middle East and Africa



  South America

By Source Insights

The private segment is estimated to witness significant growth during the forecast period. Debt financing is a popular financing method for businesses seeking to expand operations while maintaining ownership. Private debt financing, in particular, has gained significant traction among financial specialists worldwide due to its importance in funding small- and mid-sized organizations globally. The demand for debt financing by startups has increased annually, leading to the sector's substantial growth over the last five years. This financing option's flexibility enables businesses to customize their financing solutions to address specific needs, making it an allure for numerous organizations. Private debt financing encompasses various instruments such as Real Estate Debt, Term Loans, Leveraged Buyouts, Asset Securitization, Infrastructure Financing, Loan Servicing, and more.

Financial Leverage, Debt Covenants, Credit Risk, and Interest Rate Risk are essential considerations in this sector. Hedge Funds, Collateralized Loan Obligations, High Yield Debt, and Investment Grade Debt are alternative investment areas. Private Equity, Syndicated Loans, Venture Debt, Bridge Financing, and Mezzanine Financing are also integral components. Financial Institutions offer various debt financing solutions, including Capital Markets, Expansion Financing, Growth Capital, Debt Refinancing, and Debt Consolidation. Financial Modeling, Return on Investment, and Risk Management are crucial aspects of debt financing. Debt Advisory, Financial Engineering, and Debt Capital Markets are essential services in this field. Small Business Loans, Supp

PSND: Implicit Interest Rate: Last 12 Months Accumulated: Internal Net Debt: Federal Government & Central Bank of Brazil data was reported at 8.729 % pa in Apr 2019. This records an increase from the previous number of 8.646 % pa for Mar 2019. PSND: Implicit Interest Rate: Last 12 Months Accumulated: Internal Net Debt: Federal Government & Central Bank of Brazil data is updated monthly, averaging 12.492 % pa from Nov 2002 (Median) to Apr 2019, with 198 observations. The data reached an all-time high of 25.168 % pa in Apr 2006 and a record low of 8.329 % pa in Jan 2019. PSND: Implicit Interest Rate: Last 12 Months Accumulated: Internal Net Debt: Federal Government & Central Bank of Brazil data remains active status in CEIC and is reported by Central Bank of Brazil. The data is categorized under Brazil Premium Database’s Government and Public Finance – Table BR.FB034: Public Sector Net Debt: Implicit Interest Rate: Last 12 Months Accumulated.

India recorded a Government Debt to GDP of 81.59 percent of the country's Gross Domestic Product in 2023. This dataset provides - India Government Debt To GDP - actual values, historical data, forecast, chart, statistics, economic calendar and news.

In September 2023, the national debt of the United States had risen up to 33.17 trillion U.S. dollars. The national debt per capita had risen to 85,552 U.S. dollars in 2021. As represented by the statistic above, the public debt of the United States has been continuously rising.

U.S. public debt Public debt, also known as national and governmental debt, is the debt owed by a nations’ central government. In the case of the U.S., national debt is owed by the federal government to Treasury security holders. Generally speaking, government debt increases with government spending, and can be decreased through taxes. During the COVID-19 pandemic, the U.S. government increased spending significantly to finance virus infrastructure, aid, and various forms of economic relief.

International public debt

Venezuela leads the global ranking of the 20 countries with the highest public debt in 2021. In relation to the Gross Domestic Product (GDP), Venezuela's public debt amounted to around 306.95 percent of GDP. Eritrea was ranked fifth, with an estimated debt of 170 percent of the Gross Domestic Product.

The national debt of the United Kingdom is forecasted to grow from 87 percent in 2022 to 70 percent in 2027, in relation to the Gross Domestic Product. These figures include England, Wales, Scotland as well as Northern Ireland.

Greece had the highest national debt among EU countries as of the 4th quarter of 2020 in relation to the Gross Domestic Product. Germany ranked 13th in the EU, with its national debt amounting to 69 percent of GDP in the same time period.

Tuvalu was one of the 20 countries with the lowest national debt in 2021 in relation to the GDP, while Macao had an estimated level of national debt of zero percent, the lowest of any country. The data refer to the debts of the entire state, including the central government, the provinces, municipalities, local authorities and social insurance.

Brazil Gross External Debt: Interest Rate Distribution: Floating Rates: Others data was reported at 15.507 USD bn in 2018. This records an increase from the previous number of 12.441 USD bn for 2017. Brazil Gross External Debt: Interest Rate Distribution: Floating Rates: Others data is updated yearly, averaging 17.813 USD bn from Dec 1983 (Median) to 2018, with 36 observations. The data reached an all-time high of 44.504 USD bn in 2003 and a record low of 8.357 USD bn in 1983. Brazil Gross External Debt: Interest Rate Distribution: Floating Rates: Others data remains active status in CEIC and is reported by Central Bank of Brazil. The data is categorized under Brazil Premium Database’s Government and Public Finance – Table BR.FD013: Gross External Debt: by Interest Rate Type: Annual.

The statistic shows the national debt of the United States from 2019 to 2022 in relation to the gross domestic product (GDP), with projections up until 2029. In 2022, the national debt of the United States was at around 120.03 percent of the gross domestic product. See the US GDP for further information. US finances There has been a dramatic increase in the public debt of the United States since 1990, although the month-to-month change has been quite stable over the last few months. Public debt is defined as the amount of money borrowed by a country to cover budget deficits. A ranking of individual state debt in the United States shows that California is leading by a clear margin, with more than double the amount of runner-up New York. Vermont, North Dakota and South Dakota are the states with the lowest amount of debt. Even before the recession of 2008, the national debt of the United States had been increasing steadily and excessively, and it is predicted to rise even further. Budget cuts and fewer job opportunities as a result of the crisis are taking their toll on the American economy, which is still recovering. Trade figures as well as unemployment are still below average. Subsequently, the national debt and the national debt of the United States per capita have more or less quadrupled since the 1990s. Interestingly, the United States is not even among the top ten of countries with the highest public debt in relation to gross domestic product in international comparison. Japan, Greece and Italy – among others – report far higher figures than the United States.

Turkey recorded a Government Debt to GDP of 24.70 percent of the country's Gross Domestic Product in 2024. This dataset provides the latest reported value for - Turkey Government Debt to GDP - plus previous releases, historical high and low, short-term forecast and long-term prediction, economic calendar, survey consensus and news.

Uruguay Gross Debt: Public Sector: By Types of Interest Rate: Floating: International Bank of Reconstruction and Development (IBRD) data was reported at 800.325 USD mn in Jun 2018. This records an increase from the previous number of 794.788 USD mn for Mar 2018. Uruguay Gross Debt: Public Sector: By Types of Interest Rate: Floating: International Bank of Reconstruction and Development (IBRD) data is updated quarterly, averaging 794.329 USD mn from Dec 2000 (Median) to Jun 2018, with 71 observations. The data reached an all-time high of 1.142 USD bn in Mar 2011 and a record low of 398.053 USD mn in Jun 2005. Uruguay Gross Debt: Public Sector: By Types of Interest Rate: Floating: International Bank of Reconstruction and Development (IBRD) data remains active status in CEIC and is reported by Central Bank of Uruguay. The data is categorized under Global Database’s Uruguay – Table UY.F012: Government Debt: By Type of Interest Rate.

Brazil Gross External Debt: Interest Rate Distribution: Floating Rates data was reported at 160.079 USD bn in 2018. This records an increase from the previous number of 156.627 USD bn for 2017. Brazil Gross External Debt: Interest Rate Distribution: Floating Rates data is updated yearly, averaging 98.675 USD bn from Dec 1983 (Median) to 2018, with 36 observations. The data reached an all-time high of 172.481 USD bn in 2014 and a record low of 64.051 USD bn in 2005. Brazil Gross External Debt: Interest Rate Distribution: Floating Rates data remains active status in CEIC and is reported by Central Bank of Brazil. The data is categorized under Brazil Premium Database’s Government and Public Finance – Table BR.FD013: Gross External Debt: by Interest Rate Type: Annual.

Public sector net debt amounted to 95.8 percent of gross domestic product in the United Kingdom during the 2024/25 financial year, or 90 percent when the Bank of England is excluded. UK government debt is at its highest levels since the early 1960s, due to a significant increase in borrowing during the COVID-19 pandemic. After peaking at 251.7 percent shortly after the end of the Second World War, government debt in the UK gradually fell, before a sharp increase in the late 2000s at the time of the global financial crisis. Debt not expected to start falling until 2029/30 In 2024/25, the UK's government expenditure was approximately 1.28 trillion pounds, around 44.7 percent of GDP. This spending was financed by 1.13 trillion pounds of revenue raised, and 151 billion pounds of borrowing. Although the UK government can still borrow money in the future to finance its spending, the amount spent on debt interest has increased significantly recently. Recent forecasts suggest that while the debt is eventually expected to start declining, this is based on falling government deficits in the next five years. Government facing hard choices Hitting fiscal targets, such as reducing the national debt, will require a careful balancing of the books from the current government, and the possibility for either spending cuts or tax rises. Although Labour ruled out raising the main government tax sources, Income Tax, National Insurance, and VAT, at the 2024 election, they did raise National Insurance for employers (rather than employees) and also cut Winter Fuel allowances for large numbers of pensioners. Less than a year after implementing cuts to Winter Fuel, the government performed a U-Turn on the issue, and will make it widely available by the winter of 2025.

In 2023, the U.S. government spent a total of 875 billion U.S. dollars on interest of public debt. 497 billion U.S. dollars was on interest for debt held by the public.

The national debt of the United Stated can be found here.