Unemployment Rate in the United States remained unchanged at 4.20 percent in May. This dataset provides the latest reported value for - United States Unemployment Rate - plus previous releases, historical high and low, short-term forecast and long-term prediction, economic calendar, survey consensus and news.

The Volcker Shock was a period of historically high interest rates precipitated by Federal Reserve Chairperson Paul Volcker's decision to raise the central bank's key interest rate, the Fed funds effective rate, during the first three years of his term. Volcker was appointed chairperson of the Fed in August 1979 by President Jimmy Carter, as replacement for William Miller, who Carter had made his treasury secretary. Volcker was one of the most hawkish (supportive of tighter monetary policy to stem inflation) members of the Federal Reserve's committee, and quickly set about changing the course of monetary policy in the U.S. in order to quell inflation. The Volcker Shock is remembered for bringing an end to over a decade of high inflation in the United States, prompting a deep recession and high unemployment, and for spurring on debt defaults among developing countries in Latin America who had borrowed in U.S. dollars.

Monetary tightening and the recessions of the early '80s

Beginning in October 1979, Volcker's Fed tightened monetary policy by raising interest rates. This decision had the effect of depressing demand and slowing down the U.S. economy, as credit became more expensive for households and businesses. The Fed funds rate, the key overnight rate at which banks lend their excess reserves to each other, rose as high as 17.6 percent in early 1980. The rate was allowed to fall back below 10 percent following this first peak, however, due to worries that inflation was not falling fast enough, a second cycle of monetary tightening was embarked upon starting in August of 1980. The rate would reach its all-time peak in June of 1981, at 19.1 percent. The second recession sparked by these hikes was far deeper than the 1980 recession, with unemployment peaking at 10.8 percent in December 1980, the highest level since The Great Depression. This recession would drive inflation to a low point during Volcker's terms of 2.5 percent in August 1983.

The legacy of the Volcker Shock

By the end of Volcker's terms as Fed Chair, inflation was at a manageable rate of around four percent, while unemployment had fallen under six percent, as the economy grew and business confidence returned. While supporters of Volcker's actions point to these numbers as proof of the efficacy of his actions, critics have claimed that there were less harmful ways that inflation could have been brought under control. The recessions of the early 1980s are cited as accelerating deindustrialization in the U.S., as manufacturing jobs lost in 'rust belt' states such as Michigan, Ohio, and Pennsylvania never returned during the years of recovery. The Volcker Shock was also a driving factor behind the Latin American debt crises of the 1980s, as governments in the region defaulted on debts which they had incurred in U.S. dollars. Debates about the validity of using interest rate hikes to get inflation under control have recently re-emerged due to the inflationary pressures facing the U.S. following the Coronavirus pandemic and the Federal Reserve's subsequent decision to embark on a course of monetary tightening.

Unemployment Rate in Italy decreased to 5.90 percent in April from 6.10 percent in March of 2025. This dataset provides the latest reported value for - Italy Unemployment Rate - plus previous releases, historical high and low, short-term forecast and long-term prediction, economic calendar, survey consensus and news.

Unemployment Rate in France increased to 7.40 percent in the first quarter of 2025 from 7.30 percent in the fourth quarter of 2024. This dataset provides the latest reported value for - France Unemployment Rate - plus previous releases, historical high and low, short-term forecast and long-term prediction, economic calendar, survey consensus and news.

During the period beginning roughly in the mid-1980s until the Global Financial Crisis (2007-2008), the U.S. economy experienced a time of relative economic calm, with low inflation and consistent GDP growth. Compared with the turbulent economic era which had preceded it in the 1970s and the early 1980s, the lack of extreme fluctuations in the business cycle led some commentators to suggest that macroeconomic issues such as high inflation, long-term unemployment and financial crises were a thing of the past. Indeed, the President of the American Economic Association, Professor Robert Lucas, famously proclaimed in 2003 that "central problem of depression prevention has been solved, for all practical purposes". Ben Bernanke, the future chairman of the Federal Reserve during the Global Financial Crisis (GFC) and 2022 Nobel Prize in Economics recipient, coined the term 'the Great Moderation' to describe this era of newfound economic confidence. The era came to an abrupt end with the outbreak of the GFC in the Summer of 2007, as the U.S. financial system began to crash due to a downturn in the real estate market.

Causes of the Great Moderation, and its downfall

A number of factors have been cited as contributing to the Great Moderation including central bank monetary policies, the shift from manufacturing to services in the economy, improvements in information technology and management practices, as well as reduced energy prices. The period coincided with the term of Fed chairman Alan Greenspan (1987-2006), famous for the 'Greenspan put', a policy which meant that the Fed would proactively address downturns in the stock market using its monetary policy tools. These economic factors came to prominence at the same time as the end of the Cold War (1947-1991), with the U.S. attaining a new level of hegemony in global politics, as its main geopolitical rival, the Soviet Union, no longer existed. During the Great Moderation, the U.S. experienced a recession twice, between July 1990 and March 1991, and again from March 2001 tom November 2001, however, these relatively short recessions did not knock the U.S. off its growth path. The build up of household and corporate debt over the early 2000s eventually led to the Global Financial Crisis, as the bursting of the U.S. housing bubble in 2007 reverberated across the financial system, with a subsequent credit freeze and mass defaults.

Japan JP: NAIRU: Equilibrium Unemployment Rate data was reported at 2.858 % in 2022. This records a decrease from the previous number of 2.886 % for 2021. Japan JP: NAIRU: Equilibrium Unemployment Rate data is updated yearly, averaging 3.318 % from Dec 1985 (Median) to 2022, with 38 observations. The data reached an all-time high of 4.375 % in 2003 and a record low of 2.257 % in 1985. Japan JP: NAIRU: Equilibrium Unemployment Rate data remains active status in CEIC and is reported by Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development. The data is categorized under Global Database’s Japan – Table JP.OECD.EO: Non-Accelerating Inflation Rate of Unemployment (NAIRU): Forecast: OECD Member: Annual. NAIRU - Equilibrium unemployment rate The equilibrium unemployment rate (code NAIRU) is estimated using a Kalman filter in a Phillips curve framework which assumes inflation expectations are anchored at the central bank’s inflation target . The NAIRU is then projected forward from the last estimated period using a simple autoregressive rule, exceptionally modified to account for recent labour market reforms, until the end of the forecasting horizon More details on methodology in Rusticelli E., Turner D. and M. C. Cavalleri (2015), Incorporating anchored inflation expectations in the Phillips Curve and in the derivation of OECD measures of equilibrium unemployment, OECD Economics Department Working Papers No.1231 OECD, Economics Department Working Papers: Incorporating anchored inflation expectations in the Phillips Curve and in the derivation of OECD measures of equilibrium unemployment:https://www.oecd-ilibrary.org/economics/incorporating-anchored-inflation-expectations-in-the-phillips-curve-and-in-the-derivation-of-oecd-measures-of-equilibrium-unemployment_5js1gmq551wd-en

Inflation Rate in the United States decreased to 2.30 percent in April from 2.40 percent in March of 2025. This dataset provides - United States Inflation Rate - actual values, historical data, forecast, chart, statistics, economic calendar and news.

This analysis presents a rigorous exploration of financial data, incorporating a diverse range of statistical features. By providing a robust foundation, it facilitates advanced research and innovative modeling techniques within the field of finance.

What is the relationship between unemployment and inflation?

Financial data:

• Historical daily stock prices (open, high, low, close, volume)

• Fundamental data (e.g., market capitalization, price to earnings P/E ratio, dividend yield, earnings per share EPS, price to earnings growth, debt-to-equity ratio, price-to-book ratio, current ratio, free cash flow, projected earnings growth, return on equity, dividend payout ratio, price to sales ratio, credit rating)

• Technical indicators (e.g., moving averages, RSI, MACD, average directional index, aroon oscillator, stochastic oscillator, on-balance volume, accumulation/distribution A/D line, parabolic SAR indicator, bollinger bands indicators, fibonacci, williams percent range, commodity channel index)

Machine learning features:

• Feature engineering based on financial data and technical indicators

• Sentiment analysis data from social media and news articles

• Macroeconomic data (e.g., GDP, unemployment rate, interest rates, consumer spending, building permits, consumer confidence, inflation, producer price index, money supply, home sales, retail sales, bond yields)

Potential Applications:

• Stock price prediction

• Portfolio optimization

• Algorithmic trading

• Market sentiment analysis

• Risk management

Use Cases:

• Researchers investigating the effectiveness of machine learning in stock market prediction

• Analysts developing quantitative trading Buy/Sell strategies

• Individuals interested in building their own stock market prediction models

• Students learning about machine learning and financial applications

Additional Notes:

• The dataset may include different levels of granularity (e.g., daily, hourly)

• Data cleaning and preprocessing are essential before model training

• Regular updates are recommended to maintain the accuracy and relevance of the data

Ireland IE: NAIRU: Equilibrium Unemployment Rate data was reported at 7.152 % in 2022. This records an increase from the previous number of 7.136 % for 2021. Ireland IE: NAIRU: Equilibrium Unemployment Rate data is updated yearly, averaging 8.407 % from Dec 1990 (Median) to 2022, with 33 observations. The data reached an all-time high of 12.280 % in 1990 and a record low of 7.136 % in 2021. Ireland IE: NAIRU: Equilibrium Unemployment Rate data remains active status in CEIC and is reported by Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development. The data is categorized under Global Database’s Ireland – Table IE.OECD.EO: Non-Accelerating Inflation Rate of Unemployment (NAIRU): Forecast: OECD Member: Annual. NAIRU - Equilibrium unemployment rate The equilibrium unemployment rate (code NAIRU) is estimated using a Kalman filter in a Phillips curve framework which assumes inflation expectations are anchored at the central bank’s inflation target . The NAIRU is then projected forward from the last estimated period using a simple autoregressive rule, exceptionally modified to account for recent labour market reforms, until the end of the forecasting horizon More details on methodology in Rusticelli E., Turner D. and M. C. Cavalleri (2015), Incorporating anchored inflation expectations in the Phillips Curve and in the derivation of OECD measures of equilibrium unemployment, OECD Economics Department Working Papers No.1231 OECD, Economics Department Working Papers: Incorporating anchored inflation expectations in the Phillips Curve and in the derivation of OECD measures of equilibrium unemployment:https://www.oecd-ilibrary.org/economics/incorporating-anchored-inflation-expectations-in-the-phillips-curve-and-in-the-derivation-of-oecd-measures-of-equilibrium-unemployment_5js1gmq551wd-en

This statistic shows the unemployment rate of Iran from 1999 to 2024. In 2024, Iran's unemployment rate was estimated to amount to 9.19 percent of the total labor force. Employment and economy in Iran Iran’s unemployment rate has been above 10 percent for the last 10 years, and this rate is estimated to have peaked in 2014, when estimates reached 14 percent. Also, many of those who are considered employed in Iran are also considered underemployed. Unemployment in Iran is especially high among young people and women; over 70 percent of the population’s close to 80 million inhabitants are of working age, increasing the overall demand of these inhabitants for work. Iran’s economy has also been in a recession, which has exacerbated the difficulties to meet the employment demands of its inhabitants. Although the economy is expected to recover slightly in 2014, Iran's GDP is expected to decrease and the real GDP growth rate is either negative or quite low. In times of a struggling economy, it is typically more difficult to create jobs and introduce people to the labor force. Because Iran's economic activity still depends to a large extent on oil revenues, this also reduces the stability of the economy and employment. With a decreasing per capita GDP and a high inflation rate people are also more vulnerable to changes in income and employment, making the unemployment a pressing issue that the country will have to manage.

Unemployment Rate in Germany remained unchanged at 6.30 percent in May. This dataset provides the latest reported value for - Germany Unemployment Rate - plus previous releases, historical high and low, short-term forecast and long-term prediction, economic calendar, survey consensus and news.

United States CSI: Expected Inflation: Next Yr: Up by 1-2% data was reported at 29.000 % in May 2018. This stayed constant from the previous number of 29.000 % for Apr 2018. United States CSI: Expected Inflation: Next Yr: Up by 1-2% data is updated monthly, averaging 18.000 % from Jan 1978 (Median) to May 2018, with 485 observations. The data reached an all-time high of 34.000 % in Oct 2016 and a record low of 1.000 % in May 1980. United States CSI: Expected Inflation: Next Yr: Up by 1-2% data remains active status in CEIC and is reported by University of Michigan. The data is categorized under Global Database’s USA – Table US.H030: Consumer Sentiment Index: Unemployment, Interest Rates, Prices and Government Expectations. The questions were: 'During the next 12 months, do you think that prices in general will go up, or go down, or stay where they are now?' and 'By what percent do you expect prices to go up, on the average, during the next 12 months?'

United States Unemployment Rate Nowcast: sa: Contribution: Breakeven Inflation Rate data was reported at 25.070 % in 12 May 2025. This records an increase from the previous number of 22.595 % for 05 May 2025. United States Unemployment Rate Nowcast: sa: Contribution: Breakeven Inflation Rate data is updated weekly, averaging 3.810 % from Jan 2020 (Median) to 12 May 2025, with 279 observations. The data reached an all-time high of 32.032 % in 28 Feb 2022 and a record low of 0.000 % in 24 Mar 2025. United States Unemployment Rate Nowcast: sa: Contribution: Breakeven Inflation Rate data remains active status in CEIC and is reported by CEIC Data. The data is categorized under Global Database’s United States – Table US.CEIC.NC: CEIC Nowcast: Unemployment Rate.

The average unemployment rate was six percent in Germany in 2024. Since 2005, the rate of unemployment has generally been declining, though a slight increase was evident in recent years. Unemployment in Germany and comparison with other countries Germany has a comparatively low unemployment rate compared to its European neighbors, and they are expected to stay at around three percent over the next few years. This is a result of the damage the economy suffered during the COVID-19 pandemic. During the lockdown, most businesses were closed, and many companies lost revenue meaning employees were let go. It is also possible that higher unemployment figures will continue into later years because of inflation and rising energy prices. There is also a slightly higher unemployment rate among men than there is among women. Social support Social support is money paid out to those who are unable to work for some reason, its purpose is to protect those who are most vulnerable. The status of being unemployed is defined as when an employed person is laid off, fired, or quits his work and is still looking for a job, this is what qualifies someone to receive a citizens allowance (Bürgergeld) in Germany. The payments are only made if you are unemployed and worked for the last 12 months. Otherwise, benefits are received in the form of Arbeitslosengeld II, also called Hartz IV, which distributes social payments to people without an income who cannot work to make a living. Since January 2023 though, Arbeitlosengeld has been replaced by Bürgergeld, since this is a new transition, it is still possible that people will still refer to the benefits as Arbeitlosengeld or Hartz IV.

Canada CA: NAIRU: Equilibrium Unemployment Rate data was reported at 6.243 % in 2022. This records a decrease from the previous number of 6.251 % for 2021. Canada CA: NAIRU: Equilibrium Unemployment Rate data is updated yearly, averaging 7.065 % from Dec 1985 (Median) to 2022, with 38 observations. The data reached an all-time high of 8.006 % in 1993 and a record low of 6.243 % in 2022. Canada CA: NAIRU: Equilibrium Unemployment Rate data remains active status in CEIC and is reported by Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development. The data is categorized under Global Database’s Canada – Table CA.OECD.EO: Non-Accelerating Inflation Rate of Unemployment (NAIRU): Forecast: OECD Member: Annual. NAIRU - Equilibrium unemployment rate The equilibrium unemployment rate (code NAIRU) is estimated using a Kalman filter in a Phillips curve framework which assumes inflation expectations are anchored at the central bank’s inflation target . The NAIRU is then projected forward from the last estimated period using a simple autoregressive rule, exceptionally modified to account for recent labour market reforms, until the end of the forecasting horizon More details on methodology in Rusticelli E., Turner D. and M. C. Cavalleri (2015), Incorporating anchored inflation expectations in the Phillips Curve and in the derivation of OECD measures of equilibrium unemployment, OECD Economics Department Working Papers No.1231 OECD, Economics Department Working Papers: Incorporating anchored inflation expectations in the Phillips Curve and in the derivation of OECD measures of equilibrium unemployment:https://www.oecd-ilibrary.org/economics/incorporating-anchored-inflation-expectations-in-the-phillips-curve-and-in-the-derivation-of-oecd-measures-of-equilibrium-unemployment_5js1gmq551wd-en

The statistic shows the unemployment rate in the United Kingdom from 1999 to 2023. The UK's unemployment rate decreased to 3.98 percent in 2023. Unemployment and the economy of the United Kingdom The global financial crisis of 2008 left many nations with high inflation and increasing unemployment rates. The United Kingdom, however, has attempted and successfully lowered the unemployment rate since 2009. The UK is a member of the Commonwealth of Nations, the Council of Europe, the G7, the G8, the G20, NATO, and World Trade Organization. It is therefore one of the biggest and most important economic powers in the world. It consists of England, Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland, and in 2014, the UK population amounted to over 64 million people. The same year, it reported the sixth largest gross domestic product in the world, reaching more than 2.8 billion U.S. dollars - and with a prospering economy, its GDP is on the upswing: It is estimated that the GDP in the United Kingdom will grow by approximately 3 percent in 2015 in comparison to the previous year. Regarding unemployment, the UK has never been "typically European". Europe's unemployment rate has been relatively high in comparison to other world regions; the unemployment rate in developed countries and the European Union in 2014 was around 7.8 percent. Meanwhile, the global unemployment rate in 2014 was an estimated 5.9 percent. Despite reporting the third highest unemployment rate in major industrial and emerging countries, behind France and India, the unemployment rate in the United Kingdom is much lower than the European Union rate.

Unemployment Rate in China decreased to 5.10 percent in April from 5.20 percent in March of 2025. This dataset provides - China Unemployment Rate - actual values, historical data, forecast, chart, statistics, economic calendar and news.

Nigeria’s inflation has been higher than the average for African and Sub-Saharan countries for years now, and even exceeded 16 percent in 2017 – and a real, significant decrease is nowhere in sight. The bigger problem is its unsteadiness, however: An inflation rate that is bouncing all over the place, like this one, is usually a sign of a struggling economy, causing prices to fluctuate, and unemployment and poverty to increase. Nigeria’s economy - a so-called “mixed economy”, which means the market economy is at least in part regulated by the state – is not entirely in bad shape, though. More than half of its GDP is generated by the services sector, namely telecommunications and finances, and the country derives a significant share of its state revenues from oil.

Because it got high

To simplify: When the inflation rate rises, so do prices, and consequently banks raise their interest rates as well to cope and maintain their profit margin. Higher interest rates often cause unemployment to rise. In certain scenarios, rising prices can also mean more panicky spending and consumption among end users, causing debt and poverty. The extreme version of this is called hyperinflation: A rapid increase of prices that is out of control and leads to bankruptcies en masse, devaluation of money and subsequently a currency reform, among other things. But does that mean that low inflation is better? Maybe, but only to a certain degree; the ECB, for example, aspires to maintain an inflation rate of about two percent so as to keep the economy stable. As soon as we reach deflation territory, however, things are starting to look grim again. The best course is a stable inflation rate, to avoid uncertainty and rash actions.

Nigeria today

Nigeria is one of the countries with the largest populations worldwide and also the largest economy in Africa, with its economy growing rapidly after a slump in the aforementioned year 2017. It is slated to be one of the countries with the highest economic growth over the next few decades. Demographic key indicators, like infant mortality rate, fertility rate, and the median age of the population, all point towards a bright future. Additionally, the country seems to make big leaps forward in manufacturing and technological developments, and boasts huge natural resources, including natural gas. All in all, Nigeria and its inflation seem to be on the upswing – or on the path to stabilization, as it were.

In 1990, the unemployment rate of the United States stood at 5.6 percent. Since then there have been many significant fluctuations to this number - the 2008 financial crisis left millions of people without work, as did the COVID-19 pandemic. By the end of 2022 and throughout 2023, the unemployment rate came to 3.6 percent, the lowest rate seen for decades. However, 2024 saw an increase up to four percent. For monthly updates on unemployment in the United States visit either the monthly national unemployment rate here, or the monthly state unemployment rate here. Both are seasonally adjusted. UnemploymentUnemployment is defined as a situation when an employed person is laid off, fired or quits his work and is still actively looking for a job. Unemployment can be found even in the healthiest economies, and many economists consider an unemployment rate at or below five percent to mean there is 'full employment' within an economy. If former employed persons go back to school or leave the job to take care of children they are no longer part of the active labor force and therefore not counted among the unemployed. Unemployment can also be the effect of events that are not part of the normal dynamics of an economy. Layoffs can be the result of technological progress, for example when robots replace workers in automobile production. Sometimes unemployment is caused by job outsourcing, due to the fact that employers often search for cheap labor around the globe and not only domestically. In 2022, the tech sector in the U.S. experienced significant lay-offs amid growing economic uncertainty. In the fourth quarter of 2022, more than 70,000 workers were laid off, despite low unemployment nationwide. The unemployment rate in the United States varies from state to state. In 2021, California had the highest number of unemployed persons with 1.38 million out of work.

Lithuania LT: NAIRU: Equilibrium Unemployment Rate data was reported at 6.680 % in 2022. This records a decrease from the previous number of 6.683 % for 2021. Lithuania LT: NAIRU: Equilibrium Unemployment Rate data is updated yearly, averaging 7.322 % from Dec 2002 (Median) to 2022, with 21 observations. The data reached an all-time high of 9.571 % in 2011 and a record low of 5.965 % in 2002. Lithuania LT: NAIRU: Equilibrium Unemployment Rate data remains active status in CEIC and is reported by Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development. The data is categorized under Global Database’s Lithuania – Table LT.OECD.EO: Non-Accelerating Inflation Rate of Unemployment (NAIRU): Forecast: OECD Member: Annual. NAIRU - Equilibrium unemployment rate The equilibrium unemployment rate (code NAIRU) is estimated using a Kalman filter in a Phillips curve framework which assumes inflation expectations are anchored at the central bank’s inflation target . The NAIRU is then projected forward from the last estimated period using a simple autoregressive rule, exceptionally modified to account for recent labour market reforms, until the end of the forecasting horizon More details on methodology in Rusticelli E., Turner D. and M. C. Cavalleri (2015), Incorporating anchored inflation expectations in the Phillips Curve and in the derivation of OECD measures of equilibrium unemployment, OECD Economics Department Working Papers No.1231 OECD, Economics Department Working Papers: Incorporating anchored inflation expectations in the Phillips Curve and in the derivation of OECD measures of equilibrium unemployment:https://www.oecd-ilibrary.org/economics/incorporating-anchored-inflation-expectations-in-the-phillips-curve-and-in-the-derivation-of-oecd-measures-of-equilibrium-unemployment_5js1gmq551wd-en