26 datasets found
  1. Treasury yield curve in the U.S. June 2024

    • statista.com
    Updated Oct 16, 2024
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    Statista (2024). Treasury yield curve in the U.S. June 2024 [Dataset]. https://www.statista.com/statistics/1058454/yield-curve-usa/
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    Dataset updated
    Oct 16, 2024
    Dataset authored and provided by
    Statistahttp://statista.com/
    Time period covered
    Oct 16, 2024
    Area covered
    United States
    Description

    As of October 16, 2024, the yield for a ten-year U.S. government bond was 4.04 percent, while the yield for a two-year bond was 3.96 percent. This represents an inverted yield curve, whereby bonds of longer maturities provide a lower yield, reflecting investors' expectations for a decline in long-term interest rates. Hence, making long-term debt holders open to more risk under the uncertainty around the condition of financial markets in the future. That markets are uncertain can be seen by considering both the short-term fluctuations, and the long-term downward trend, of the yields of U.S. government bonds from 2006 to 2021, before the treasury yield curve increased again significantly in 2022 and 2023. What are government bonds? Government bonds, otherwise called ‘sovereign’ or ‘treasury’ bonds, are financial instruments used by governments to raise money for government spending. Investors give the government a certain amount of money (the ‘face value’), to be repaid at a specified time in the future (the ‘maturity date’). In addition, the government makes regular periodic interest payments (called ‘coupon payments’). Once initially issued, government bonds are tradable on financial markets, meaning their value can fluctuate over time (even though the underlying face value and coupon payments remain the same). Investors are attracted to government bonds as, provided the country in question has a stable economy and political system, they are a very safe investment. Accordingly, in periods of economic turmoil, investors may be willing to accept a negative overall return in order to have a safe haven for their money. For example, once the market value is compared to the total received from remaining interest payments and the face value, investors have been willing to accept a negative return on two-year German government bonds between 2014 and 2021. Conversely, if the underlying economy and political structures are weak, investors demand a higher return to compensate for the higher risk they take on. Consequently, the return on bonds in emerging markets like Brazil are consistently higher than that of the United States (and other developed economies). Inverted yield curves When investors are worried about the financial future, it can lead to what is called an ‘inverted yield curve’. An inverted yield curve is where investors pay more for short term bonds than long term, indicating they do not have confidence in long-term financial conditions. Historically, the yield curve has historically inverted before each of the last five U.S. recessions. The last U.S. yield curve inversion occurred at several brief points in 2019 – a trend which continued until the Federal Reserve cut interest rates several times over that year. However, the ultimate trigger for the next recession was the unpredicted, exogenous shock of the global coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic, showing how such informal indicators may be grounded just as much in coincidence as causation.

  2. Worldwide 10-year government bond yield by country 2024

    • statista.com
    • flwrdeptvarieties.store
    Updated Jan 7, 2025
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    Statista (2025). Worldwide 10-year government bond yield by country 2024 [Dataset]. https://www.statista.com/statistics/1211855/ten-year-government-bond-yield-country/
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    Dataset updated
    Jan 7, 2025
    Dataset authored and provided by
    Statistahttp://statista.com/
    Time period covered
    Dec 30, 2024
    Area covered
    Worldwide
    Description

    As of December 30, 2024, the major economy with the highest yield on 10-year government bonds was Turkey, with a yield of 27.38 percent. This is due to the risks investors take when investing in Turkey, notably due to high inflation rates potentially eradicating any profits made when using a foreign currency to investing in securities denominated in Turkish lira. Of the major developed economies, United States had one the highest yield on 10-year government bonds at this time with 4.59 percent, while Switzerland had the lowest at 0.27 percent. How does inflation influence the yields of government bonds? Inflation reduces purchasing power over time. Due to this, investors seek higher returns to offset the anticipated decrease in purchasing power resulting from rapid price rises. In countries with high inflation, government bond yields often incorporate investor expectations and risk premiums, resulting in comparatively higher rates offered by these bonds. Why are government bond rates significant? Government bond rates are an important indicator of financial markets, serving as a benchmark for borrowing costs, interest rates, and investor sentiment. They affect the cost of government borrowing, influence the price of various financial instruments, and serve as a reflection of expectations regarding inflation and economic growth. For instance, in financial analysis and investing, people often use the 10-year U.S. government bond rates as a proxy for the longer-term risk-free rate.

  3. F

    ICE BofA AA US Corporate Index Effective Yield

    • fred.stlouisfed.org
    json
    Updated Mar 12, 2025
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    (2025). ICE BofA AA US Corporate Index Effective Yield [Dataset]. https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/BAMLC0A2CAAEY
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    jsonAvailable download formats
    Dataset updated
    Mar 12, 2025
    License

    https://fred.stlouisfed.org/legal/#copyright-pre-approvalhttps://fred.stlouisfed.org/legal/#copyright-pre-approval

    Description

    Graph and download economic data for ICE BofA AA US Corporate Index Effective Yield (BAMLC0A2CAAEY) from 1996-12-31 to 2025-03-11 about AA, yield, corporate, interest rate, interest, rate, and USA.

  4. 10-year government bond yield in the U.S. 1990-2023

    • statista.com
    Updated Nov 1, 2024
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    Statista (2024). 10-year government bond yield in the U.S. 1990-2023 [Dataset]. https://www.statista.com/statistics/698047/yield-on-10y-us-treasury-bond/
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    Dataset updated
    Nov 1, 2024
    Dataset authored and provided by
    Statistahttp://statista.com/
    Area covered
    United States
    Description

    At the end of 2023, the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury bond was 3.96 percent. The highest yields could be observed in the early 1990s. What affects bond prices? The factors that play a big role in valuation and interest in government bonds are interest rate and inflation. If inflation is expected to be high, investors will demand a higher return on bonds. Country credit ratings indicate how stable the economy is and thus also influence the government bond prices. Risk and bonds Finally, when investors are worried about the bond issuer’s ability to pay at the end of the term, they demand a higher interest rate. For the U.S. Treasury, the vast majority of investors consider the investment to be perfectly safe. Ten-year government bonds from other countries show that countries seen as more risky have a higher bond return. On the other hand, countries in which investors do not expect economic growth have a lower yield.

  5. S

    Sri Lanka Short Term Government Bond Yield

    • ceicdata.com
    Updated Feb 15, 2025
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    CEICdata.com (2025). Sri Lanka Short Term Government Bond Yield [Dataset]. https://www.ceicdata.com/en/indicator/sri-lanka/short-term-government-bond-yield
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    Dataset updated
    Feb 15, 2025
    Dataset provided by
    CEICdata.com
    License

    Attribution 4.0 (CC BY 4.0)https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
    License information was derived automatically

    Time period covered
    Aug 1, 2021 - Jan 1, 2024
    Area covered
    Sri Lanka
    Description

    Key information about Sri Lanka Short Term Government Bond Yield

    • Sri Lanka Short Term Government Bond Yield: Month End: Sri Lanka: 2 Years was reported at 13.83 % pa in Jan 2024, compared with 13.87 % pa in the previous month.
    • Sri Lanka Short Term Government Bond Yield data is updated monthly, available from Jan 2003 to Jan 2024.
    • The data reached an all-time high of 33.01 % pa in Dec 2022 and a record low of 5.65 % pa in Sep 2020.
    • Short Term Government Bond Yield is reported by CEIC Data.

    The Central Bank of Sri Lanka provides monthly weighted average Short Term Government Bond Yield.

  6. Monthly yield on ten-year Benelux government bonds in 2017-2022, by country

    • statista.com
    Updated Jul 15, 2017
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    Statista (2017). Monthly yield on ten-year Benelux government bonds in 2017-2022, by country [Dataset]. https://www.statista.com/statistics/609641/monthly-yield-on-ten-year-government-bonds-in-benelux-by-country/
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    Dataset updated
    Jul 15, 2017
    Dataset authored and provided by
    Statistahttp://statista.com/
    Time period covered
    Jul 2017 - Nov 2022
    Area covered
    Belgium, Luxembourg, Netherlands
    Description

    In November 2022, the long-term interest rate of the Netherlands reached a value of approximately 2.35, compared to 2.7 percent in Luxembourg. A ten-year government bond, or treasury note, is a debt obligation issued by a government which matures in ten years. They are considered to be a low-risk investment as they are backed by the government and their ability to raise taxes to cover its obligations. Investors track them, however, for several reasons. First, these bonds are the benchmark that guides other financial interest rates, such as fixed mortgage rates. Second, their yield will tell how investors feel about the economy. The higher the yield on a ten-year government bond, the better the economic outlook.

  7. Monthly yield on ten-year government bonds in the Netherlands 2000-2024

    • statista.com
    Updated Dec 30, 2024
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    Statista (2024). Monthly yield on ten-year government bonds in the Netherlands 2000-2024 [Dataset]. https://www.statista.com/statistics/604283/yield-on-ten-year-government-bonds-in-the-netherlands/
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    Dataset updated
    Dec 30, 2024
    Dataset authored and provided by
    Statistahttp://statista.com/
    Area covered
    Netherlands
    Description

    Due to financial unrest caused by the coronavirus outbreak in March 2020, the yield of ten-year governments in the Netherlands dropped significantly. During the last quarter 2021, the yield on 10-year government bonds was on average -0.26 percent. The beginning of 2022 saw the start of a positive yield with the rate resting at an average of 2.79 percent as of the second quarter of 2024. A ten-year government bond, or treasury note, is a debt obligation issued by a government which matures in ten years. They are considered to be a low-risk investment as they are backed by the government and their ability to raise taxes to cover its obligations. Investors track them, however, for several reasons. First, these bonds are the benchmark that guides other financial interest rates, such as fixed mortgage rates. Second, their yield will tell how investors feel about the economy. The higher the yield on a ten-year government bond, the better the economic outlook.

  8. A

    Afghanistan AF: External Debt: DIS: PPG: Bonds

    • ceicdata.com
    Updated Dec 14, 2023
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    CEICdata.com (2023). Afghanistan AF: External Debt: DIS: PPG: Bonds [Dataset]. https://www.ceicdata.com/en/afghanistan/external-debt-disbursements-and-interest-payment-annual/af-external-debt-dis-ppg-bonds
    Explore at:
    Dataset updated
    Dec 14, 2023
    Dataset provided by
    CEICdata.com
    License

    Attribution 4.0 (CC BY 4.0)https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
    License information was derived automatically

    Time period covered
    Dec 1, 2011 - Dec 1, 2022
    Area covered
    Afghanistan
    Description

    Afghanistan External Debt: DIS: PPG: Bonds data was reported at 0.000 USD mn in 2022. This stayed constant from the previous number of 0.000 USD mn for 2021. Afghanistan External Debt: DIS: PPG: Bonds data is updated yearly, averaging 0.000 USD mn from Dec 2006 (Median) to 2022, with 17 observations. The data reached an all-time high of 0.000 USD mn in 2022 and a record low of 0.000 USD mn in 2022. Afghanistan External Debt: DIS: PPG: Bonds data remains active status in CEIC and is reported by World Bank. The data is categorized under Global Database’s Afghanistan – Table AF.World Bank.IDS: External Debt: Disbursements and Interest Payment: Annual. Public and publicly guaranteed debt from bonds that are either publicly issued or privately placed. Disbursements are drawings by the borrower on loan commitments during the year specified. Data are in current U.S. dollars.

  9. Average monthly yield from UK government bonds 2013-2024

    • statista.com
    Updated Jan 7, 2025
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    Statista (2025). Average monthly yield from UK government bonds 2013-2024 [Dataset]. https://www.statista.com/statistics/1117437/monthly-average-yield-from-british-government-securities-by-nominal-par-yield/
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    Dataset updated
    Jan 7, 2025
    Dataset authored and provided by
    Statistahttp://statista.com/
    Time period covered
    Jan 2013 - Nov 2024
    Area covered
    United Kingdom
    Description

    The monthly average yield on five, ten, and twenty-year nominal zero coupon British Government securities in the United Kingdom (UK) have all seen a continued decrease from December 2019 to July 2020. January 2021 saw a slight increase, progressing to October 2022 when yields reached a new high. At the end of December 2024, the monthly average yield of 20-year British Government Securities stood at 4.65 percent.

  10. 美国 公司债券:ADTV:HY:ATS:> = 1,000,000 <5,000,000

    • ceicdata.com
    Updated Jan 15, 2023
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    CEICdata.com (2023). 美国 公司债券:ADTV:HY:ATS:> = 1,000,000 <5,000,000 [Dataset]. https://www.ceicdata.com/zh-hans/united-states/us-corporate-bond-average-daily-trading-volume-high-yield/corp-bond-adtv-hy-ats--1000000--5000000
    Explore at:
    Dataset updated
    Jan 15, 2023
    Dataset provided by
    CEICdata.com
    License

    Attribution 4.0 (CC BY 4.0)https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
    License information was derived automatically

    Time period covered
    Mar 1, 2020 - Dec 1, 2022
    Area covered
    美国
    Variables measured
    Turnover
    Description

    公司债券:ADTV:HY:ATS:> = 1,000,000 <5,000,000在12-01-2022达294.648百万美元,相较于09-01-2022的299.754百万美元有所下降。公司债券:ADTV:HY:ATS:> = 1,000,000 <5,000,000数据按季更新,06-01-2019至12-01-2022期间平均值为390.552百万美元,共15份观测结果。该数据的历史最高值出现于03-01-2021,达611.095百万美元,而历史最低值则出现于09-01-2019,为266.638百万美元。CEIC提供的公司债券:ADTV:HY:ATS:> = 1,000,000 <5,000,000数据处于定期更新的状态,数据来源于Financial Industry Regulatory Authority, Inc.,数据归类于全球数据库的美国 – Table US.Z033: US Corporate Bond Average Daily Trading Volume: High Yield。

  11. Yearly yield on ten-year government bonds in the Netherlands 1995-2023

    • statista.com
    Updated Nov 19, 2024
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    Statista (2024). Yearly yield on ten-year government bonds in the Netherlands 1995-2023 [Dataset]. https://www.statista.com/statistics/754287/yearly-yield-on-ten-year-government-bonds-in-the-netherlands/
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    Dataset updated
    Nov 19, 2024
    Dataset authored and provided by
    Statistahttp://statista.com/
    Area covered
    Netherlands
    Description

    Ten-year government bonds in the Netherlands had a yield of 2.8 percent in 2023, compared to 1.47 percent in 2022. A ten-year government bond, or treasury note, is a debt obligation issued by a government which matures in ten years. They are considered to be a low-risk investment as they are backed by the government and their ability to raise taxes to cover its obligations. Investors track them, however, for several reasons. First, these bonds are the benchmark that guides other financial interest rates, such as fixed mortgage rates. Second, their yield will tell how investors feel about the economy. The higher the yield on a ten-year government bond, the better the economic outlook.

  12. S

    Samoa WS: External Debt: DIS: PS: Bonds

    • ceicdata.com
    Updated Jan 9, 2023
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    CEICdata.com (2023). Samoa WS: External Debt: DIS: PS: Bonds [Dataset]. https://www.ceicdata.com/en/samoa/external-debt-disbursements-and-interest-payment-annual/ws-external-debt-dis-ps-bonds
    Explore at:
    Dataset updated
    Jan 9, 2023
    Dataset provided by
    CEICdata.com
    License

    Attribution 4.0 (CC BY 4.0)https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
    License information was derived automatically

    Time period covered
    Dec 1, 2011 - Dec 1, 2022
    Area covered
    Samoa
    Description

    Samoa WS: External Debt: DIS: PS: Bonds data was reported at 0.000 USD mn in 2022. This stayed constant from the previous number of 0.000 USD mn for 2021. Samoa WS: External Debt: DIS: PS: Bonds data is updated yearly, averaging 0.000 USD mn from Dec 1970 (Median) to 2022, with 53 observations. The data reached an all-time high of 2.102 USD mn in 1974 and a record low of 0.000 USD mn in 2022. Samoa WS: External Debt: DIS: PS: Bonds data remains active status in CEIC and is reported by World Bank. The data is categorized under Global Database’s Samoa – Table WS.World Bank.IDS: External Debt: Disbursements and Interest Payment: Annual. Public sector debt from bonds that are either publicly issued or privately placed. Disbursements are drawings by the borrower on loan commitments during the year specified. Data are in current U.S. dollars.

  13. Treasury yield rates in the U.S. 2005-2024, by maturity

    • statista.com
    Updated Jan 10, 2025
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    Statista (2025). Treasury yield rates in the U.S. 2005-2024, by maturity [Dataset]. https://www.statista.com/statistics/1059669/yield-curve-usa/
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    Dataset updated
    Jan 10, 2025
    Dataset authored and provided by
    Statistahttp://statista.com/
    Area covered
    United States
    Description

    At the end of 2024, the yield for a 30-year U.S. Treasury bond was 4.78 percent, slightly higher than the yields for bonds with short-term maturities. Bonds of longer maturities generally have higher yields as a reward for the uncertainty about the condition of financial markets in the future.

  14. V

    Vanuatu VU: External Debt: DIS: PRVG: Bonds

    • ceicdata.com
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    CEICdata.com, Vanuatu VU: External Debt: DIS: PRVG: Bonds [Dataset]. https://www.ceicdata.com/en/vanuatu/external-debt-disbursements-and-interest-payment-annual/vu-external-debt-dis-prvg-bonds
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    Dataset provided by
    CEICdata.com
    License

    Attribution 4.0 (CC BY 4.0)https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
    License information was derived automatically

    Time period covered
    Dec 1, 2011 - Dec 1, 2022
    Area covered
    Vanuatu
    Description

    Vanuatu VU: External Debt: DIS: PRVG: Bonds data was reported at 0.000 USD mn in 2022. This stayed constant from the previous number of 0.000 USD mn for 2021. Vanuatu VU: External Debt: DIS: PRVG: Bonds data is updated yearly, averaging 0.000 USD mn from Dec 1981 (Median) to 2022, with 42 observations. The data reached an all-time high of 0.000 USD mn in 2022 and a record low of 0.000 USD mn in 2022. Vanuatu VU: External Debt: DIS: PRVG: Bonds data remains active status in CEIC and is reported by World Bank. The data is categorized under Global Database’s Vanuatu – Table VU.World Bank.IDS: External Debt: Disbursements and Interest Payment: Annual. Private sector guaranteed by Public Sector debt from bonds that are either publicly issued or privately placed. Disbursements are drawings by the borrower on loan commitments during the year specified. Data are in current U.S. dollars.

  15. Three and six month bonds yields in the Netherlands 2018-2024

    • statista.com
    Updated Jun 20, 2024
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    Statista (2024). Three and six month bonds yields in the Netherlands 2018-2024 [Dataset]. https://www.statista.com/statistics/1220966/three-six-month-dutch-government-bonds-yields/
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    Dataset updated
    Jun 20, 2024
    Dataset authored and provided by
    Statistahttp://statista.com/
    Time period covered
    Jan 2018 - May 2024
    Area covered
    Netherlands
    Description

    The yield on three-month bonds issued by the Government of the Netherlands reached 3.56 percent as of May 2024. This is lower than the 2.03 percent seen for six month bonds at the same time. Since July 2022, three and six month bonds issued by the Government of the Netherlands have been positive yields. Negative bond yields signify that investors receive less money at the bond's maturity than the original purchase price of the bond, owing to high demand for the bond on money or capital markets.

  16. C

    China Bond Redemption: Interest Payment: Financial Bond: Non Bank Financial...

    • ceicdata.com
    Updated Jan 19, 2025
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    CEICdata.com (2025). China Bond Redemption: Interest Payment: Financial Bond: Non Bank Financial Inst Bond [Dataset]. https://www.ceicdata.com/en/indicator/china/data/bond-redemption-interest-payment-financial-bond-non-bank-financial-inst-bond
    Explore at:
    Dataset updated
    Jan 19, 2025
    Dataset provided by
    CEICdata.com
    License

    Attribution 4.0 (CC BY 4.0)https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
    License information was derived automatically

    Time period covered
    Jan 1, 2024 - Dec 1, 2024
    Area covered
    China
    Variables measured
    Turnover
    Description

    China Bond Redemption: Interest Payment: Financial Bond: Non Bank Financial Inst Bond data was reported at 1,496.819 RMB mn in Dec 2024. This records an increase from the previous number of 1,173.650 RMB mn for Nov 2024. China Bond Redemption: Interest Payment: Financial Bond: Non Bank Financial Inst Bond data is updated monthly, averaging 146.150 RMB mn from Jan 1999 (Median) to Dec 2024, with 312 observations. The data reached an all-time high of 6,473.375 RMB mn in Mar 2022 and a record low of 0.000 RMB mn in Apr 2016. China Bond Redemption: Interest Payment: Financial Bond: Non Bank Financial Inst Bond data remains active status in CEIC and is reported by China Central Depository & Clearing Co., Ltd. The data is categorized under China Premium Database’s Financial Market – Table CN.ZD: CCDC: Bond Redemption.

  17. Yearly yield on ten-year government bonds in Belgium 1995-2023

    • statista.com
    Updated Nov 19, 2024
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    Statista (2024). Yearly yield on ten-year government bonds in Belgium 1995-2023 [Dataset]. https://www.statista.com/statistics/754221/yearly-yield-on-ten-year-government-bonds-in-belgium/
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    Dataset updated
    Nov 19, 2024
    Dataset authored and provided by
    Statistahttp://statista.com/
    Area covered
    Belgium
    Description

    Ten-year government bonds in Belgium had a yield of 3.1 percent in 2023, compared to 1.74 percent in 2022. A ten-year government bond, or treasury note, is a debt obligation issued by a government which matures in ten years. They are considered to be a low-risk investment as they are backed by the government and their ability to raise taxes to cover its obligations. Investors track them, however, for several reasons. First, these bonds are the benchmark that guides other financial interest rates, such as fixed mortgage rates. Second, their yield will tell how investors feel about the economy. The higher the yield on a ten-year government bond, the better the economic outlook.

  18. Monthly yield on ten-year government bonds in Belgium 2000-2023

    • statista.com
    Updated Aug 28, 2023
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    Statista (2023). Monthly yield on ten-year government bonds in Belgium 2000-2023 [Dataset]. https://www.statista.com/statistics/609571/monthly-yield-on-ten-year-government-bonds-in-belgium/
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    Dataset updated
    Aug 28, 2023
    Dataset authored and provided by
    Statistahttp://statista.com/
    Time period covered
    Jan 2000 - Feb 2023
    Area covered
    Belgium
    Description

    The yield of ten-year government bonds in Belgium have started declining from April 2020 due to the financial unrest caused by the coronavirus outbreak in early March 2020, spending much of 2020 in negative territory. By July 2021, Belgian bond yields had dropped back to a negative value of -0.13 percent, before just creeping into positive territory again in September 2021 with a yield of 0.01 percent. From the beginning of 2022, ten-year yield of Belgian government bonds started to increase and reached 3.06 percent as of June 2023.

    A ten-year government bond, or treasury note, is a debt obligation issued by a government which matures in ten years. They are considered to be a low-risk investment as they are backed by the government and their ability to raise taxes to cover its obligations. Investors track them, however, for several reasons. First, these bonds are the benchmark that guides other financial interest rates, such as fixed mortgage rates. Second, their yield will tell how investors feel about the economy. The higher the yield on a ten-year government bond, the better the economic outlook.

  19. Yearly yield on ten-year government bonds in Luxembourg 1995-2023

    • statista.com
    Updated Nov 19, 2024
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    Statista (2024). Yearly yield on ten-year government bonds in Luxembourg 1995-2023 [Dataset]. https://www.statista.com/statistics/754272/yearly-yield-on-ten-year-government-bonds-in-luxembourg/
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    Dataset updated
    Nov 19, 2024
    Dataset authored and provided by
    Statistahttp://statista.com/
    Area covered
    Luxembourg
    Description

    The yield of ten-year government bonds in Luxembourg was 1.54 percent in 2023, compared to 1.54 percent in 2022. A ten-year government bond, or treasury note, is a debt obligation issued by a government which matures in ten years. They are considered to be a low-risk investment as they are backed by the government and their ability to raise taxes to cover its obligations. Investors track them, however, for several reasons. First, these bonds are the benchmark that guides other financial interest rates, such as fixed mortgage rates. Second, their yield will tell how investors feel about the economy. The higher the yield on a ten-year government bond, the better the economic outlook.

  20. Days yield curve was inverted before recession 1978-2022

    • statista.com
    Updated Jul 13, 2022
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    Days yield curve was inverted before recession 1978-2022 [Dataset]. https://www.statista.com/statistics/1087253/days-yield-curve-was-inverted-before-recession/
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    Dataset updated
    Jul 13, 2022
    Dataset authored and provided by
    Statistahttp://statista.com/
    Area covered
    United States
    Description

    Prior to the 2020 recession, the yield curve was only inverted for 141 days, which was much shorter than the average 248 days preceding the previous five U.S. recessions. For instance, the yield curve was inverted for 235 days between the inversion in January 2006 and the start of the 2007-2009 recession. A yield curve inversion refers to the event where short-term Treasury bonds, such as one or three month bonds, have higher yields than longer term bonds, such as three or five year bonds. This is unusual, because long-term investments typically have higher yields than short-term ones in order to reward investors for taking on the extra risk of longer term investments. Monthly updates on the Treasury yield curve can be seen here.

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Statista (2024). Treasury yield curve in the U.S. June 2024 [Dataset]. https://www.statista.com/statistics/1058454/yield-curve-usa/
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Treasury yield curve in the U.S. June 2024

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4 scholarly articles cite this dataset (View in Google Scholar)
Dataset updated
Oct 16, 2024
Dataset authored and provided by
Statistahttp://statista.com/
Time period covered
Oct 16, 2024
Area covered
United States
Description

As of October 16, 2024, the yield for a ten-year U.S. government bond was 4.04 percent, while the yield for a two-year bond was 3.96 percent. This represents an inverted yield curve, whereby bonds of longer maturities provide a lower yield, reflecting investors' expectations for a decline in long-term interest rates. Hence, making long-term debt holders open to more risk under the uncertainty around the condition of financial markets in the future. That markets are uncertain can be seen by considering both the short-term fluctuations, and the long-term downward trend, of the yields of U.S. government bonds from 2006 to 2021, before the treasury yield curve increased again significantly in 2022 and 2023. What are government bonds? Government bonds, otherwise called ‘sovereign’ or ‘treasury’ bonds, are financial instruments used by governments to raise money for government spending. Investors give the government a certain amount of money (the ‘face value’), to be repaid at a specified time in the future (the ‘maturity date’). In addition, the government makes regular periodic interest payments (called ‘coupon payments’). Once initially issued, government bonds are tradable on financial markets, meaning their value can fluctuate over time (even though the underlying face value and coupon payments remain the same). Investors are attracted to government bonds as, provided the country in question has a stable economy and political system, they are a very safe investment. Accordingly, in periods of economic turmoil, investors may be willing to accept a negative overall return in order to have a safe haven for their money. For example, once the market value is compared to the total received from remaining interest payments and the face value, investors have been willing to accept a negative return on two-year German government bonds between 2014 and 2021. Conversely, if the underlying economy and political structures are weak, investors demand a higher return to compensate for the higher risk they take on. Consequently, the return on bonds in emerging markets like Brazil are consistently higher than that of the United States (and other developed economies). Inverted yield curves When investors are worried about the financial future, it can lead to what is called an ‘inverted yield curve’. An inverted yield curve is where investors pay more for short term bonds than long term, indicating they do not have confidence in long-term financial conditions. Historically, the yield curve has historically inverted before each of the last five U.S. recessions. The last U.S. yield curve inversion occurred at several brief points in 2019 – a trend which continued until the Federal Reserve cut interest rates several times over that year. However, the ultimate trigger for the next recession was the unpredicted, exogenous shock of the global coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic, showing how such informal indicators may be grounded just as much in coincidence as causation.

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