In 2020, global gross domestic product declined by 6.7 percent as a result of the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic outbreak. In Latin America, overall GDP loss amounted to 8.5 percent.

As of April 2021, Mexico's gross domestic product (GDP) was forecasted to increase by five percent during 2021. Mexico was one of the Latin American countries that faced the worst recession after the COVID-19 pandemic, as its GDP fell over eight percent in 2020. Among the biggest economies in the region, Brazil was expected to experience one of the lowest GDP growth in 2021, at around 3.7 percent.

For further information about the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic, please visit our dedicated Facts and Figures page.

According to the source, in the baseline scenario, the coronavirus epidemic lowers Poland's GDP growth by 0.4 percentage points in 2020. In this scenario, the most important are disruptions in supply chains, which lower GDP growth by 0.20 percentage points. In the pessimistic scenario, the coronavirus epidemic lowers Poland's GDP growth by 1.3 percentage points in 2020. In this scenario, the problems in the internal market, such as a drop in domestic demand, are estimated to lower GDP growth by 0.57 points. The implementation of the pessimistic scenario would mean that Poland's economic growth in 2020 would decrease from 3.7 percent previously forecast to around 2.0 percent. It is worth to notice that one of the biggest banks in Poland - mBank, estimated that GDP will reach 1.6 percent in 2020. The key assumption in both situations was that the epidemic is a temporary phenomenon, i.e., it would last for a maximum of several weeks, after which the economy would gradually recover.

In 2023 the real gross domestic product (GDP) of the United States increased by 2.5 percent compared to 2022. This rate of annual growth indicates a return to economy normalcy after 2020 saw a dramatic decline in the GDP growth rate due to the the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic, and high growth in 2021.

What does GDP growth mean?

Essentially, the annual GDP of the U.S. is the monetary value of all goods and services produced within the country over a given year. On the surface, an increase in GDP therefore means that more goods and services have been produced between one period than another. In the case of annualized GDP, it is compared to the previous year. In 2023, for example, the U.S. GDP grew 2.5 percent compared to 2022.

Countries with highest GDP growth rate

Although the United States has by far the largest GDP of any country, it does not have the highest GDP growth, nor the highest GDP at purchasing power parity. In 2021, Libya had the highest growth in GDP, growing more than 177 percent compared to 2020. Furthermore, Luxembourg had the highest GDP per capita at purchasing power parity, a better measure of living standards than nominal or real GDP.

Poland is characterized by the lowest sensitivity to the coronavirus epidemic, as measured under the outlined scenario. The GDP dynamics in Poland is expected to decrease by 3.3 percentage points. Hungary will be most affected by the coronavirus epidemic, where the GDP dynamics will decline by 6.9 percentage points.

For further information about the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic, please visit our dedicated Facts and Figures page.

According to quarterly pulse monitors, the Dutch economy will face a recession in 2020 due to the coronavirus and geopolitical events. This according to one of five sources in the Netherlands that presented an economic outlook for 2020. From 2018 to 2019, GDP in the Netherlands showed a *** percent growth. On March 9, 2020, Rabobank economists calculated that a *** percent of GDP growth was expected for 2020. The source originally noted, however, that this is not only due to the coronavirus outbreak. The Netherlands also was going to feel the future effects of the United Kingdom leaving the EU, as the UK was one of the Netherlands’ biggest trading partners. During March 2020, the Dutch economy was also negatively impacted by events such as the U.S. -China trade war or the sudden drop in oil prices. By June 2020, the *** percent GDP growth forecast was revised to minus *** percent.

Is COVID-19 going to have a bigger impact in the Netherlands than in other European countries?

According to a forecast from the European Commission conducted in July 2020, the Dutch economy suffered a GDP hit of *** percent quarter-to-quarter in Q1 2020. In addition, a projected quarterly GDP decline of **** percent was estimated in Q2 2020. Real GDP for the year 2020 was predicted to decline by **** percent, a figure that was lower than real GDP losses predicted for other European countries. While the Netherlands successfully adopted emergency measures to protect employment, it was expected that the Dutch economy would be affected by lower private consumption and exports. Economic consequences in the Netherlands were predicted to be not as negative as in other countries. Belgium, for instance, was expected to face a GDP loss of **** percent.

Back to reality: Dutch economic consequences so far

The coronavirus and its resulting quarantine measures caused, the largest decrease in domestic household consumption in the Netherlands in over 20 years. Restaurants were believed to be especially hit by the pandemic, whereas expenditure on food, beverages, and tobacco went up. Furthermore, between May and June 2020, the monthly unemployment rate of the Netherlands increased greatly. In January 2020, the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate for ages 15 until 75 years stood at ***** percent, whereas by July it had increased to *** percent.

According to a median projection in July 2025, China's GDP was expected to grow by *** percent in 2025. In the first quarter of 2020, the second-largest economy recorded the first contraction in decades due to the epidemic.  A root-to-branch shutdown of factories To curb the spread of the virus, the Chinese government imposed a lockdown in Wuhan, the epicenter, and other cities in Hubei province on January 23, 2020. A strict nationwide lockdown soon followed. Many factories remained closed in February, resulting in a plunge in manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI). The shutdown of the “world’s factory” had severely disrupted global supply chains, especially automobile production. In March 2020, very few industrial sectors reported positive production growth.  The pharmaceuticals sector recorded a production increase, which was mainly driven by the global demand for vital medical supplies. China had exported over seven billion yuan worth of face masks. Ripple effects on global tourism Apart from the manufacturing industry, the prolonged closures of business had caused significant losses in various sectors in China. The travel and tourism sector was massively affected by a drastic decline in flight ticket sales  and hotel occupancy rates. The domestic tourism market expects a loss of 20 percent in revenues for 2020. Industry experts predicted that the global travel and tourism industry could lose about *** trillion U.S. dollars in that year. 

With the global impact of the 2020 Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19), there has been a surge in public debt and uncertainty in the global economy. As the likelihood of a recession and a higher debt for Canada increases, the utility of a forecasting model is a realistic choice to both predict and determine optimal fiscal decisions for the government. This paper seeks to ratify existing historical trends in three developed economies (Canada, Japan, and the U.K.) as well as offer a time series forecast for the proceeding five years’ debt to GDP ratio. As per the International Monetary Fund (IMF), a limit of 60% in debt to GDP ratio was employed to measure how far off these three countries were from a considerably recoverable amount of debt. The time series forecast that the U.K. will drop to 65.436% by 2025, however, Japan and Canada will continue to accumulate debt to 254.3851% and 80.107% respectively.

India's quarterly GDP was estimated to grow by 8.4 percent in the second quarter of financial year 2022 compared to the same quarter in the previous fiscal year. While continuing to be a positive change, it was a significant reduction from the performance during the first quarter of fiscal year 2022 when GDP growth peaked by 20 percent.

Cost of the pandemic

As a result of the various lockdowns enforced since the onset of the coronavirus pandemic in 2020, the Indian economy has been reeling from a multibillion dollar setback. The GDP contribution as well as the employment rate among most major sectors, especially services and trade, had taken a hit. The agriculture sector was an exception, having experienced positive changes on both these fronts.

A slowly recovering economy

With the outbreak of the second wave of the pandemic in March 2021, the government redirected financial support to boost India’s vaccination campaign. As of February 2022, over a billion vaccine doses had been administered across the country. Furthermore, inflation within the country was expected to decline 2021 onwards. However, the stagnation of employment continued to remain a matter of concern with protests erupting across different states in 2022.

The economic landscape of the United Kingdom has been significantly shaped by the intertwined issues of Brexit, COVID-19, and their interconnected impacts. Despite the country’s robust and diverse economy, the disruptions caused by Brexit and the COVID-19 pandemic have created uncertainty and upheaval for both businesses and individuals. Recognizing the magnitude of these challenges, academic literature has directed its attention toward conducting immediate research in this crucial area. This study sets out to investigate key economic factors that have influenced various sectors of the UK economy and have broader economic implications within the context of Brexit and COVID-19. The factors under scrutiny include the unemployment rate, GDP index, earnings, and trade. To accomplish this, a range of data analysis tools and techniques were employed, including the Box-Jenkins method, neural network modeling, Google Trend analysis, and Twitter-sentiment analysis. The analysis encompassed different periods: pre-Brexit (2011-2016), Brexit (2016-2020), the COVID-19 period, and post-Brexit (2020-2021). The findings of the analysis offer intriguing insights spanning the past decade. For instance, the unemployment rate displayed a downward trend until 2020 but experienced a spike in 2021, persisting for a six-month period. Meanwhile, total earnings per week exhibited a gradual increase over time, and the GDP index demonstrated an upward trajectory until 2020 but declined during the COVID-19 period. Notably, trade experienced the most significant decline following both Brexit and the COVID-19 pandemic. Furthermore, the impact of these events exhibited variations across the UK’s four regions and twelve industries. Wales and Northern Ireland emerged as the regions most affected by Brexit and COVID-19, with industries such as accommodation, construction, and wholesale trade particularly impacted in terms of earnings and employment levels. Conversely, industries such as finance, science, and health demonstrated an increased contribution to the UK’s total GDP in the post-Brexit period, indicating some positive outcomes. It is worth highlighting that the impact of these economic factors was more pronounced on men than on women. Among all the variables analyzed, trade suffered the most severe consequences in the UK. By early 2021, the macroeconomic situation in the country was characterized by a simple dynamic: economic demand rebounded at a faster pace than supply, leading to shortages, bottlenecks, and inflation. The findings of this research carry significant value for the UK government and businesses, empowering them to adapt and innovate based on forecasts to navigate the challenges posed by Brexit and COVID-19. By doing so, they can promote long-term economic growth and effectively address the disruptions caused by these interrelated issues.

The economic landscape of the United Kingdom has been significantly shaped by the intertwined issues of Brexit, COVID-19, and their interconnected impacts. Despite the country’s robust and diverse economy, the disruptions caused by Brexit and the COVID-19 pandemic have created uncertainty and upheaval for both businesses and individuals. Recognizing the magnitude of these challenges, academic literature has directed its attention toward conducting immediate research in this crucial area. This study sets out to investigate key economic factors that have influenced various sectors of the UK economy and have broader economic implications within the context of Brexit and COVID-19. The factors under scrutiny include the unemployment rate, GDP index, earnings, and trade. To accomplish this, a range of data analysis tools and techniques were employed, including the Box-Jenkins method, neural network modeling, Google Trend analysis, and Twitter-sentiment analysis. The analysis encompassed different periods: pre-Brexit (2011-2016), Brexit (2016-2020), the COVID-19 period, and post-Brexit (2020-2021). The findings of the analysis offer intriguing insights spanning the past decade. For instance, the unemployment rate displayed a downward trend until 2020 but experienced a spike in 2021, persisting for a six-month period. Meanwhile, total earnings per week exhibited a gradual increase over time, and the GDP index demonstrated an upward trajectory until 2020 but declined during the COVID-19 period. Notably, trade experienced the most significant decline following both Brexit and the COVID-19 pandemic. Furthermore, the impact of these events exhibited variations across the UK’s four regions and twelve industries. Wales and Northern Ireland emerged as the regions most affected by Brexit and COVID-19, with industries such as accommodation, construction, and wholesale trade particularly impacted in terms of earnings and employment levels. Conversely, industries such as finance, science, and health demonstrated an increased contribution to the UK’s total GDP in the post-Brexit period, indicating some positive outcomes. It is worth highlighting that the impact of these economic factors was more pronounced on men than on women. Among all the variables analyzed, trade suffered the most severe consequences in the UK. By early 2021, the macroeconomic situation in the country was characterized by a simple dynamic: economic demand rebounded at a faster pace than supply, leading to shortages, bottlenecks, and inflation. The findings of this research carry significant value for the UK government and businesses, empowering them to adapt and innovate based on forecasts to navigate the challenges posed by Brexit and COVID-19. By doing so, they can promote long-term economic growth and effectively address the disruptions caused by these interrelated issues.

The gross domestic product of the United Kingdom was around 2.56 trillion British pounds, an increase when compared to the previous year, when UK GDP amounted to about 2.54 trillion pounds. The significant drop in GDP visible in 2020 was due to the COVID-19 pandemic, with the smaller declines in 2008 and 2009 because of the global financial crisis of the late 2000s. Low growth problem in the UK Despite growing by 0.9 percent in 2024, and 0.4 percent in 2023 the UK economy is not that much larger than it was before the COVID-19 pandemic. Since recovering from a huge fall in GDP in the second quarter of 2020, the UK economy has alternated between periods of contraction and low growth, with the UK even in a recession at the end of 2023. While economic growth picked up somewhat in 2024, GDP per capita is lower than it was in 2022, following two years of negative growth. UK's global share of GDP falling As of 2024, the UK had the sixth-largest economy in the world, behind the United States, China, Japan, Germany, and India. Among European nations, this meant that the UK currently has the second-largest economy in Europe, although the economy of France, Europe's third-largest economy, is of a similar size. The UK's global economic ranking will likely fall in the coming years, however, with the UK's share of global GDP expected to fall from 2.16 percent in 2025 to 2.02 percent by 2029.  

This is not going to be an article or Op-Ed about Michael Jordan. Since 2009 we've been in the longest bull-market in history, that's 11 years and counting. However a few metrics like the stock market P/E, the call to put ratio and of course the Shiller P/E suggest a great crash is coming in-between the levels of 1929 and the dot.com bubble. Mean reversion historically is inevitable and the Fed's printing money experiment could end in disaster for the stock market in late 2021 or 2022. You can read Jeremy Grantham's Last Dance article here. You are likely well aware of Michael Burry's predicament as well. It's easier for you just to skim through two related videos on this topic of a stock market crash. Michael Burry's Warning see this YouTube. Jeremy Grantham's Warning See this YouTube. Typically when there is a major event in the world, there is a crash and then a bear market and a recovery that takes many many months. In March, 2020 that's not what we saw since the Fed did some astonishing things that means a liquidity sloth and the risk of a major inflation event. The pandemic represented the quickest decline of at least 30% in the history of the benchmark S&P 500, but the recovery was not correlated to anything but Fed intervention. Since the pandemic clearly isn't disappearing and many sectors such as travel, business travel, tourism and supply chain disruptions appear significantly disrupted - the so-called economic recovery isn't so great. And there's this little problem at the heart of global capitalism today, the stock market just keeps going up. Crashes and corrections typically occur frequently in a normal market. But the Fed liquidity and irresponsible printing of money is creating a scenario where normal behavior isn't occurring on the markets. According to data provided by market analytics firm Yardeni Research, the benchmark index has undergone 38 declines of at least 10% since the beginning of 1950. Since March, 2020 we've barely seen a down month. September, 2020 was flat-ish. The S&P 500 has more than doubled since those lows. Look at the angle of the curve: The S&P 500 was 735 at the low in 2009, so in this bull market alone it has gone up 6x in valuation. That's not a normal cycle and it could mean we are due for an epic correction. I have to agree with the analysts who claim that the long, long bull market since 2009 has finally matured into a fully-fledged epic bubble. There is a complacency, buy-the dip frenzy and general meme environment to what BigTech can do in such an environment. The weight of Apple, Amazon, Alphabet, Microsoft, Facebook, Nvidia and Tesla together in the S&P and Nasdaq is approach a ridiculous weighting. When these stocks are seen both as growth, value and companies with unbeatable moats the entire dynamics of the stock market begin to break down. Check out FANG during the pandemic. BigTech is Seen as Bullet-Proof me valuations and a hysterical speculative behavior leads to even higher highs, even as 2020 offered many younger people an on-ramp into investing for the first time. Some analysts at JP Morgan are even saying that until retail investors stop charging into stocks, markets probably don’t have too much to worry about. Hedge funds with payment for order flows can predict exactly how these retail investors are behaving and monetize them. PFOF might even have to be banned by the SEC. The risk-on market theoretically just keeps going up until the Fed raises interest rates, which could be in 2023! For some context, we're more than 1.4 years removed from the bear-market bottom of the coronavirus crash and haven't had even a 5% correction in nine months. This is the most over-priced the market has likely ever been. At the night of the dot-com bubble the S&P 500 was only 1,400. Today it is 4,500, not so many years after. Clearly something is not quite right if you look at history and the P/E ratios. A market pumped with liquidity produces higher earnings with historically low interest rates, it's an environment where dangerous things can occur. In late 1997, as the S&P 500 passed its previous 1929 peak of 21x earnings, that seemed like a lot, but nothing compared to today. For some context, the S&P 500 Shiller P/E closed last week at 38.58, which is nearly a two-decade high. It's also well over double the average Shiller P/E of 16.84, dating back 151 years. So the stock market is likely around 2x over-valued. Try to think rationally about what this means for valuations today and your favorite stock prices, what should they be in historical terms? The S&P 500 is up 31% in the past year. It will likely hit 5,000 before a correction given the amount of added liquidity to the system and the QE the Fed is using that's like a huge abuse of MMT, or Modern Monetary Theory. This has also lent to bubbles in the housing market, crypto and even commodities like Gold with long-term global GDP meeting many headwinds in the years ahead due to a demographic shift of an ageing population and significant technological automation. So if you think that stocks or equities or ETFs are the best place to put your money in 2022, you might want to think again. The crash of the OTC and small-cap market since February 2021 has been quite an indication of what a correction looks like. According to the Motley Fool what happens after major downturns in the market historically speaking? In each of the previous four instances that the S&P 500's Shiller P/E shot above and sustained 30, the index lost anywhere from 20% to 89% of its value. So what's what we too are due for, reversion to the mean will be realistically brutal after the Fed's hyper-extreme intervention has run its course. Of course what the Fed stimulus has really done is simply allowed the 1% to get a whole lot richer to the point of wealth inequality spiraling out of control in the decades ahead leading us likely to a dystopia in an unfair and unequal version of BigTech capitalism. This has also led to a trend of short squeeze to these tech stocks, as shown in recent years' data. Of course the Fed has to say that's its done all of these things for the people, employment numbers and the labor market. Women in the workplace have been set behind likely 15 years in social progress due to the pandemic and the Fed's response. While the 89% lost during the Great Depression would be virtually impossible today thanks to ongoing intervention from the Federal Reserve and Capitol Hill, a correction of 20% to 50% would be pretty fair and simply return the curve back to a normal trajectory as interest rates going back up eventually in the 2023 to 2025 period. It's very unlikely the market has taken Fed tapering into account (priced-in), since the euphoria of a can't miss market just keeps pushing the markets higher. But all good things must come to an end. Earlier this month, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics released inflation data from July. This report showed that the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers rose 5.2% over the past 12 months. While the Fed and economists promise us this inflation is temporary, others are not so certain. As you print so much money, the money you have is worth less and certain goods cost more. Wage gains in some industries cannot be taken back, they are permanent - in the service sector like restaurants, hospitality and travel that have been among the hardest hit. The pandemic has led to a paradigm shift in the future of work, and that too is not temporary. The Great Resignation means white collar jobs with be more WFM than ever before, with a new software revolution, different transport and energy behaviors and so forth. Climate change alone could slow down global GDP in the 21st century. How can inflation be temporary when so many trends don't appear to be temporary? Sure the price of lumber or used-cars could be temporary, but a global chip shortage is exasperating the automobile sector. The stock market isn't even behaving like it cares about anything other than the Fed, and its $billions of dollars of buying bonds each month. Some central banks will start to taper about December, 2021 (like the European). However Delta could further mutate into a variant that makes the first generation of vaccines less effective. Such a macro event could be enough to trigger the correction we've been speaking about. So stay safe, and keep your money safe. The Last Dance of the 2009 bull market could feel especially more painful because we've been spoiled for so long in the markets. We can barely remember what March, 2020 felt like. Some people sold their life savings simply due to scare tactics by the likes of Bill Ackman. His scare tactics on CNBC won him likely hundreds of millions as the stock market tanked. Hedge funds further gamed the Reddit and Gamestop movement, orchestrating them and leading the new retail investors into meme speculation and a whole bunch of other unsavory things like options trading at such scale we've never seen before. It's not just inflation and higher interest rates, it's how absurdly high valuations have become. Still correlation does not imply causation. Just because inflation has picked up, it doesn't guarantee that stocks will head lower. Nevertheless, weaker buying power associated with higher inflation can't be overlooked as a potential negative for the U.S. economy and equities. The current S&P500 10-year P/E Ratio is 38.7. This is 97% above the modern-era market average of 19.6, putting the current P/E 2.5 standard deviations above the modern-era average. This is just math, folks. History is saying the stock market is 2x its true value. So why and who would be full on the market or an asset class like crypto that is mostly speculative in nature to begin with? Study the following on a historical basis, and due your own due diligence as to the health of the markets: Debt-to-GDP ratio Call to put ratio

As of May 11, 2025, nearly 1.8 million people have died due COVID-19 in Latin America and the Caribbean. The country with the highest number was Brazil, reporting around 700,000 deaths. As a result of the pandemic, Brazil's GDP was forecast to decline by approximately six percent in 2020. Meanwhile, Mexico ranked second in number of deaths, with approximately 335 thousand occurrences. For further information about the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic, please visit our dedicated Facts and Figures page.

Different estimations on Italy's GDP growth for 2020 have been published since the outbreak of the coronavirus pandemic. The most pessimistic forecasts estimated a contraction of the country's Gross Domestic Product of almost ** percent. The actual data, published during the Spring 2021, revealed that Italy's GDP decreased by *** percent over the course of 2020. An economic outlook published in ************* forecasted a slight growth for the upcoming year. However, the source could not take into account the COVID-19 pandemic.

For a wider overview on the economic impact of the coronavirus in Italy, please consult this report. For further global information about the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic, please visit our dedicated Facts and Figures page.

In 2023, the share of travel and tourism's total contribution to global gross domestic product (GDP) showed a decline of 1.3 percentage points compared to 2019, the year before the COVID-19 pandemic. Overall, these industries represented 9.1 percent of the global GDP in 2023. That year, the total contribution of travel and tourism to the global GDP amounted to nearly 10 trillion U.S. dollars. The impact of COVID-19 on global travel and tourism The lockdowns and travel restrictions enforced across the globe to limit the spread of COVID-19 turned travel and tourism upside down. In 2023, the number of travel and tourism jobs worldwide experienced a sharp annual increase, but was still slightly below pre-pandemic levels. Meanwhile, total travel and tourism spending worldwide followed a similar trend. International tourist arrivals still lagged pre-pandemic levels After sinking in 2020 to the lowest point recorded since 1989, the number of international tourist arrivals worldwide bounced back in 2022, then rose further in 2023. That said, it remained below the peak of nearly 1.5 billion reported in 2019. Both before and after the impact of the health crisis, Europe was the global region with the highest number of international tourist arrivals.

Starting in 2021, the Community of Madrid's gross domestic product has returned to positive territory after a decline of 10.4 percent in 2020. The forecast for 2023 points to a growth of three percent, while a growth of 2.9 percent is expected for 2024. GDP per capita of Spain The GDP per capita of Spain faced a decline during the COVID-19 pandemic, when the value dropped to 29,799 U.S. dollars in 2022. Nevertheless, since then, the GDP per capita of the Iberian country has been growing and is estimated to be at 34,045 dollars in 2024. In regional terms, the Community of Madrid was the autonomous community with the highest GDP per capita, at 38,435 euros in 2022. The employment scene in Madrid Employment in the autonomous Community of Madrid has been growing every year since 2021. The Spanish region favors the service sector, having over 87 percent of its employed population inserted in this sector. The average monthly income has also increased in recent years and, in 2023, reached 2,271 euros.

Cabo Verde’s climate exposure, partly also because of its geography, is compounded by economic vulnerabilities. The country has experienced robust economic growth since the early 1990s and achieved a substantial reduction in poverty, but growth has been volatile and has slowed in recent years. Reflecting the comparative advantage of its attractive natural geography, growth has primarily been driven by the tourism sector, which accounts for a quarter of gross domestic product (GDP), over half of exports, and most foreign direct investment. For similar reasons, the archipelago is heavily reliant on imports, notably those of fuel and food. High levels of remittance and concessional international financing serve to bridge its external financing needs, but they generate additional external vulnerabilities. Adding to this, although recurrent fiscal deficits have recently resorbed, public spending is rigid, and public debt remains above 100 percent of GDP. The COVID-19 pandemic put Cabo Verde’s external vulnerabilities on display, causing a steep decline in tourism revenue and a surge in the food and fuel import bill before the economy returned to pre-pandemic conditions in 2023. This CCDR analyzes how Cabo Verde can build climate resilience and stimulate low carbon development, while identifying key enablers. The Country Climate and Development Report (CCDR) estimates the projected economic and social damage from climate change in chapter 1. The report then proceeds to a discussion of the country’s relevant institutional and legal framework in chapter 2, the main ways in which a climate-resilient economy can be achieved at the water-land nexus and through the blue economy and infrastructure systems in chapter 3, the green transition in the energy, transport, waste, and digital sectors in chapter 4, the core actions to support the private sector and people to become more climate shock-resilient though social protection, and finally, the skills needed for, and the strengthening of, the health system in chapter 5. Chapter 6 brings together the recommendations presented in the earlier chapters, estimating their costs and benefits and modeling their effects on the economy.

The gross domestic product (GDP) of all G7 countries decreased sharply in 2009 and 2020 due to the financial crisis and COVID-19 pandemic, respectively. The growth decline was heavier after the COVID-19 pandemic than the financial crisis. Moreover, Italy had a negative GDP growth rate in 2012 and 2013 following the euro crisis. In 2023, Germany experienced an economic recession.

In 2025, the annual unemployment rate of the United Kingdom is expected to be *** percent, compared with *** percent in 2024. Unemployment is forecast to fall to *** percent in 2026, gradually declining to *** percent by 2028. In the UK's last government budget in October 2024, the country's unemployment rate for 2025 was forecast to average out at *** percent, but this was increased to *** percent in the "Spring Statement" on public finances in March 2025. Uptick in unemployment after falling to historic lows A common indicator of an economy’s relative health, the unemployment rate in the UK generally fell throughout most of the 2010s, after reaching *** percent in late 2011. After a sudden increase in unemployment during the COVID-19 pandemic, there was a steep decline that lasted until August 2022, when the unemployment rate was just *** percent. There was then a rise in unemployment from 2023 onwards, which continued throughout 2024 and into 2025. This has been matched by a fall in UK job vacancies, which peaked at *** million in May 2022, but has been falling in most months since then, with approximately ******* vacancies in February 2025. Revisions to GDP and inflation for 2025 Since the global financial crisis of the late 2000s, and especially since the COVID-19 pandemic, the UK's economic growth has been poor, with the UK alternating between weak growth and slight contractions. For 2025, the UK economy is set to grow by just *** percent, a downgrade from *** percent predicted in late 2024. Inflation, which skyrocketed from late 2021 onwards, reached a peak of **** percent in October 2022, and although down to more usual levels by 2024, is expected to rise in 2025, reaching around *** percent by the second half of the year.