Sources:

German Central Bank (ed.), 1975: Deutsches Geld- und Bankwesen in Zahlen 1876 – 1975. (German monetary system and banking system in numbers 1876 – 1975) German Central Bank (ed.), different years: monthly reports of the German Central Bank, statistical part, interest rates German Central Bank (ed.), different years: Supplementary statistical booklets for the monthly reports of the German Central Bank 1959 – 1992, security statistics Reich Statistical Office (ed.), different years: Statistical yearbook of the German empire Statistical Office (ed.), 1985: Geld und Kredit. Index der Aktienkurse (Money and Credit. Index of share prices) – Lange Reihe; Fachserie 9, Reihe 2. Statistical Office (ed.), 1987: Entwicklung der Nahrungsmittelpreise von 1800 – 1880 in Deutschland. (Development of food prices in Germany 1800 – 1880) Statistical Office (ed.), 1987: Entwicklung der Verbraucherpreise (Development of consumer prices) seit 1881 in Deutschland. (Development of consumer prices since 1881 in Germany) Statistical Office (ed.), different years: Fachserie 17, Reihe 7, Preisindex für die Lebenshaltung (price index for costs of living) Donner, 1934: Kursbildung am Aktienmarkt; Grundlagen zur Konjunkturbeobachtung an den Effektenmärkten. (Prices on the stock market; groundwork for observation of economic cycles on the stock market) Homburger, 1905: Die Entwicklung des Zinsfusses in Deutschland von 1870 – 1903. (Development of the interest flow in Germany, 1870 – 1903) Voye, 1902: Über die Höhe der verschiedenen Zinsarten und ihre wechselseitige Abhängigkeit.(On the values of different types of interests and their interdependence).

Graph and download economic data for 20-Year 2-1/2% Treasury Inflation-Indexed Bond, Due 1/15/2029 (DTP20J29) from 2010-01-04 to 2025-09-08 about 20-year, TIPS, bonds, Treasury, interest rate, interest, real, rate, and USA.

At the end of 2024, the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury bond was **** percent. Despite the increase in recent years, the highest yields could be observed in the early 1990s. What affects bond prices? The factors that play a big role in valuation and interest in government bonds are interest rate and inflation. If inflation is expected to be high, investors will demand a higher return on bonds. Country credit ratings indicate how stable the economy is and thus also influence the government bond prices. Risk and bonds Finally, when investors are worried about the bond issuer’s ability to pay at the end of the term, they demand a higher interest rate. For the U.S. Treasury, the vast majority of investors consider the investment to be perfectly safe. Ten-year government bonds from other countries show that countries seen as more risky have a higher bond return. On the other hand, countries in which investors do not expect economic growth have a lower yield.

As of July 18, 2025, the major economy with the highest yield on 10-year government bonds was Turkey, with a yield of ** percent. This is due to the risks investors take when investing in Turkey, notably due to high inflation rates potentially eradicating any profits made when using a foreign currency to investing in securities denominated in Turkish lira. Of the major developed economies, United Kingdom had one the highest yield on 10-year government bonds at this time with **** percent, while Switzerland had the lowest at **** percent. How does inflation influence the yields of government bonds? Inflation reduces purchasing power over time. Due to this, investors seek higher returns to offset the anticipated decrease in purchasing power resulting from rapid price rises. In countries with high inflation, government bond yields often incorporate investor expectations and risk premiums, resulting in comparatively higher rates offered by these bonds. Why are government bond rates significant? Government bond rates are an important indicator of financial markets, serving as a benchmark for borrowing costs, interest rates, and investor sentiment. They affect the cost of government borrowing, influence the price of various financial instruments, and serve as a reflection of expectations regarding inflation and economic growth. For instance, in financial analysis and investing, people often use the 10-year U.S. government bond rates as a proxy for the longer-term risk-free rate.

Until the 90s information on risk premiums based on empirical studies for the German capital market was only available sporadically and for short time horizons. Therefore a long term comparison of risk and return was not possible. Markus Morawietz investigates profitability and risk of German stock and bond investments since 1870. He takes inflation and tax issues into account. His work contains a comprehensive collection of primary data since 1870 on key figures on a monthly basis which describe the German capital market. The goal of the study is to identify empirical statements on parameters of the German capital market. Therefore the exposition of theoretical economic models is not of primary importance in this study. A special focus is on the potential applicability of existing Germen index numbers as base data on the empirical investigation. The first chapter “methodological bases of performance measurement” concludes with the definition of the term “performance”. The following hypothesis is tested within this study: “There is a risk premium on securities taking inflation and influences of taxes into account.” The test of this hypothesis is run over the longest time period possible. Therefore monthly data on stock and bond investment are subject of the investigation because they are the most actively traded assets. Furthermore a substitute for the risk-free investment was developed in order to determine the risk premium. Before the explicit performance measurement of the different assets takes place, empirical starting points for performance measurement will be defined. These starting points contain a relevant demarcation of the investigation period and a description of the historical events during the investigation periods for all periods. Hereby special consideration is given to the specific problems of long term German value series (interruption trough the First World War with the following Hyperinflation and the Second World War). The analysis of the basics of performance measurement concludes the empirical starting points for performance measurement. The starting points contain the definition of a substitute for the certain segment, the description and preparation of the underlying data material and the calculation method used to determine performance. The third chapter contains a concrete empirical evaluation of the available data. This evaluation is subdivided into two parts: (a) performance measurement with unadjusted original data and (b) performance measurement with adjusted primary data (adjusted for inflation and tax influences). Both parts are structured in the same way. First the performance measurement of the specific asset (stocks, bonds and risk-free instruments) will be undertaken each by itself subdivided by partial periods. Afterwards the results of the performance measurement over the entire investigation period will be analyzed. The collection of derived partial results in the then following chapter shows return risk differences between the different assets. To calculate the net performance the nominal primary data is adjusted by inflation and tax influences. Therefore measured values for the changes in price level and for tax influences will be determined in the beginning of the third chapter. Following the performance measurement will be undertaken with the adjusted primary data. A comparison of the most important results of the different analysis in the last chapter concludes.

Data tables in histat (topic: money and currencies):

A. Discount and Lombard rate A.1 Discount rate: monthly average values, yearly average values (1870-1992) A.2 Lombard rate: monthly average values, yearly average values (1870-1992)

B. Stock price index, dividends and bond market und B.1a Stock price index: monthly average values, yearly average values (1870-1992) B.2 Dividends: monthly average values (1870-1992) B.3 Bond market: monthly average values, yearly average values (1870-1992)

C. Risk free instrument C.1 Private discount rate: monthly average values, yearly average values (1870-1991) C.2 Overnight rate: monthly average values, yearly average values (1924-1992)

D. Inflation rate D.1 Price index for costs of living (base1913/14 = 100), monthly average values, yearly average values (1870-1992) D.2 Inflation rate (base 1913 = 100), M monthly average values, yearly average values (1870-1992)

The yield on 10 Year TIPS Yield eased to 1.65% on September 11, 2025, marking a 0.03 percentage point decrease from the previous session. Over the past month, the yield has fallen by 0.26 points, though it remains 0.03 points higher than a year ago, according to over-the-counter interbank yield quotes for this government bond maturity. This dataset includes a chart with historical data for the United States 10 Year TIPS Yield.

Until the 90s information on risk premiums based on empirical studies for the German capital market was only available sporadically and for short time horizons. Therefore a long term comparison of risk and return was not possible. Markus Morawietz investigates profitability and risk of German stock and bond investments since 1870. He takes inflation and tax issues into account. His work contains a comprehensive collection of primary data since 1870 on key figures on a monthly basis which describe the German capital market. The goal of the study is to identify empirical statements on parameters of the German capital market. Therefore the exposition of theoretical economic models is not of primary importance in this study. A special focus is on the potential applicability of existing Germen index numbers as base data on the empirical investigation. The first chapter “methodological bases of performance measurement” concludes with the definition of the term “performance”. The following hypothesis is tested within this study: “There is a risk premium on securities taking inflation and influences of taxes into account.” The test of this hypothesis is run over the longest time period possible. Therefore monthly data on stock and bond investment are subject of the investigation because they are the most actively traded assets. Furthermore a substitute for the risk-free investment was developed in order to determine the risk premium. Before the explicit performance measurement of the different assets takes place, empirical starting points for performance measurement will be defined. These starting points contain a relevant demarcation of the investigation period and a description of the historical events during the investigation periods for all periods. Hereby special consideration is given to the specific problems of long term German value series (interruption trough the First World War with the following Hyperinflation and the Second World War). The analysis of the basics of performance measurement concludes the empirical starting points for performance measurement. The starting points contain the definition of a substitute for the certain segment, the description and preparation of the underlying data material and the calculation method used to determine performance. The third chapter contains a concrete empirical evaluation of the available data. This evaluation is subdivided into two parts: (a) performance measurement with unadjusted original data and (b) performance measurement with adjusted primary data (adjusted for inflation and tax influences). Both parts are structured in the same way. First the performance measurement of the specific asset (stocks, bonds and risk-free instruments) will be undertaken each by itself subdivided by partial periods. Afterwards the results of the performance measurement over the entire investigation period will be analyzed. The collection of derived partial results in the then following chapter shows return risk differences between the different assets. To calculate the net performance the nominal primary data is adjusted by inflation and tax influences. Therefore measured values for the changes in price level and for tax influences will be determined in the beginning of the third chapter. Following the performance measurement will be undertaken with the adjusted primary data. A comparison of the most important results of the different analysis in the last chapter concludes. Data tables in histat (topic: money and currencies): A. Discount and Lombard rate A.1 Discount rate: monthly average values, yearly average values (1870-1992) A.2 Lombard rate: monthly average values, yearly average values (1870-1992) B. Stock price index, dividends and bond market und B.1a Stock price index: monthly average values, yearly average values (1870-1992) B.2 Dividends: monthly average values (1870-1992) B.3 Bond market: monthly average values, yearly average values (1870-1992) C. Risk free instrument C.1 Private discount rate: monthly average values, yearly average values (1870-1991) C.2 Overnight rate: monthly average values, yearly average values (1924-1992) D. Inflation rate D.1 Price index for costs of living (base1913/14 = 100), monthly average values, yearly average values (1870-1992) D.2 Inflation rate (base 1913 = 100), M monthly average values, yearly average values (1870-1992)

Graph and download economic data for Treasury Long-Term Average (Over 10 Years), Inflation-Indexed (DLTIIT) from 2000-01-03 to 2025-09-08 about TIPS, long-term, Treasury, yield, interest rate, interest, real, rate, and USA.

The Federal Reserve's balance sheet has undergone significant changes since 2007, reflecting its response to major economic crises. From a modest *** trillion U.S. dollars at the end of 2007, it ballooned to approximately *** trillion U.S. dollars by August 2025. This dramatic expansion, particularly during the 2008 financial crisis and the COVID-19 pandemic - both of which resulted in negative annual GDP growth in the U.S. - showcases the Fed's crucial role in stabilizing the economy through expansionary monetary policies. Impact on inflation and interest rates The Fed's expansionary measures, while aimed at stimulating economic growth, have had notable effects on inflation and interest rates. Following the quantitative easing in 2020, inflation in the United States reached ***** percent in 2022, the highest since 1991. However, by July 2025, inflation had declined to *** percent. Concurrently, the Federal Reserve implemented a series of interest rate hikes, with the rate peaking at **** percent in August 2023, before the first rate cut since September 2021 occurred in September 2024. Financial implications for the Federal Reserve The expansion of the Fed's balance sheet and subsequent interest rate hikes have had significant financial implications. In 2023, the Fed reported a negative net income of ***** billion U.S. dollars, a stark contrast to the ***** billion U.S. dollars profit in 2022. This unprecedented shift was primarily due to rapidly rising interest rates, which caused the Fed's interest expenses to soar to over *** billion U.S. dollars in 2023. Despite this, the Fed's net interest income on securities acquired through open market operations reached a record high of ****** billion U.S. dollars in the same year.

The U.S. bank prime loan rate has undergone significant fluctuations over the past three decades, reflecting broader economic trends and monetary policy decisions. From a high of **** percent in 1990, the rate has seen periods of decline, stability, and recent increases. As of July 2025, the prime rate stood at *** percent, marking a notable rise from the historic lows seen in the early 2020s. Federal Reserve's impact on lending rates The prime rate's trajectory closely mirrors changes in the federal funds rate, which serves as a key benchmark for the U.S. financial system. In 2023, the Federal Reserve implemented a series of rate hikes, pushing the federal funds target range to ******** percent by year-end. This was followed by several rate cuts in 2024, with the target range standing at 4.25 to 4.5 percent in December 2024. The aggressive monetary tightening in 2023 was aimed at combating rising inflation, and its effects rippled through various lending rates, including the prime rate. Long-term investment outlook While short-term rates have risen, long-term investment yields have also seen changes. The 10-year U.S. Treasury bond, a benchmark for long-term interest rates, showed an average market yield of **** percent in the second quarter of 2024, adjusted for constant maturity and inflation. This figure represents a recovery from negative real returns seen in 2021, reflecting shifting expectations for economic growth and inflation. The evolving yield environment has implications for both borrowers and investors, influencing decisions across the financial landscape.

Ten-Year TIPS Yields versus Real Yields is a part of the Inflation Expectations indicator of the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.

Graph and download economic data for 5-Year Breakeven Inflation Rate (T5YIE) from 2003-01-02 to 2025-09-09 about spread, 5-year, interest rate, interest, inflation, rate, and USA.

Graph and download economic data for 10-Year Real Interest Rate (REAINTRATREARAT10Y) from Jan 1982 to Aug 2025 about 10-year, interest rate, interest, real, rate, and USA.

Für den deutschen Kapitalmarkt lagen bis in die 90er Jahre Informationen über Risikoprämien, die sich auf empirische Untersuchungen stützen konnten, nur vereinzelt und lediglich für die jüngere Zeit vor, so dass ein langfristiger Rendite- und Risikovergleich nicht möglich war. Markus Morawietz untersucht die Rentabilität und das Risiko deutscher Aktien- und Rentenanlagen seit dem Jahr 1870. Dabei werden auch die Geldentwertung und die steuerlichen Einflüsse berücksichtigt. Die Arbeit enthält eine umfassende Sammlung von Primärdaten seit dem Jahr 1870, die auf Monatsbasis die Kennzahlen liefert, die den deutschen Geld- und Kapitalmarkt beschreiben. Ziel der vorliegenden Arbeit sind empirische Aussagen über Parameter des deutschen Kapitalmarktes als solche zu gewinnen. Die Darstellung wirtschaftswissenschaftlicher Modelle hat daher in der Arbeit untergeordneten Charakter. Besonderer Wert wird auf die eventuelle Verwendbarkeit bestehender deutscher Indexzahlen als Basisdaten für die empirische Untersuchung gelegt. Das erste Kapitel „Methodische Grundlagen der Performancemessung“ wird mit einer Definition des Begriffs „Performance“ abgeschlossen. Innerhalb der Arbeit wird folgende Hypothese getestet: „Es existiert eine Risikoprämie bei Wertpapieren unter Berücksichtigung von Geldentwertung und steuerlichen Einflüssen in Deutschland“. Der Test dieser Hypothese wird über einen längstmöglichen Zeitraum für den deutschen Kapitalmarkt durchgeführt. Daher werden die monatlichen Renditen der beiden meistgehandelten Vermögensgüter auf dem Kapitalmarkt, die Aktien- und die Rentenanlage, zum Gegenstand der Untersuchung gemacht. Darüber hinaus wird für die Ermittlung der Risikoprämie ein Substitut für die risikolose bzw. risikofreie Anlage entwickelt. Bevor auf die Performancemessung der jeweiligen Anlageform explizit eingegangen wird, werden die empirischen Ausgangspunkte der Performancemessung gelegt. Diese beinhalten eine für alle Anlageformen gleichermaßen relevante Abgrenzung des Untersuchungszeitraumes und die Darstellung der geschichtlichen Ereignisse innerhalb des Beobachtungszeitraumes. Dabei werden die speziellen Probleme langfristiger deutscher Wertreihen (Unterbrechung durch den ersten Weltkrieg mit anschließender Hyperinflation und durch den zweiten Weltkrieg) besonders berücksichtigt. Die Analyse der Grundlagen der Performancemessung - sowohl für den Aktien- und Rentenmarkt als auch für die risikolose Anlage - die für die jeweiligen Anlageformen obligat sind, schließen die Ausführungen der empirischen Ausgangspunkte für die Performancemessung ab. Die Ausgangspunkte umfassen jeweils die Festlegung eines Substituts im Sinne des Indexkonzeptes für das jeweilige Segment, die Darstellung und die Aufbereitung des zugrunde liegenden Datenmaterials sowie die jeweilige Berechnungsmethode zur Ermittlung der Performance. Im dritten Kapitel erfolgt dann die konkrete empirische Auswertung der verfügbaren Daten. Diese Auswertung ist in zwei Teile gegliedert: (a) Performancemessung mit unbereinigten Ausgangsdaten und (b) Performancemessung mit den um die maßgeblichen Einflüsse (Geldentwertung, und steuerliche Einflüsse) bereinigten Primärdaten. Beide Teilbereiche sind gleich aufgebaut. So wird zunächst in einem Kapitel die Performancemessung der untersuchten Anlageformen (Anlage in Aktien, Renten und risikofreien Papieren) einzeln, d.h. jede für sich und in Teilperioden, durchgeführt. Im Anschluss daran werden die Ergebnisse der Performancemessung über den gesamten Beobachtungszeitraum analysiert. Erst die anschließende Zusammenstellung der gewonnenen Teilergebnisse in einem anschließenden Kapitel zeigt Rendite- und Risikodifferenzen zwischen den untersuchten Anlageformen auf. Zur Ermittlung der Netto – Performance werden die nominalen Primärdaten um die Geldentwertung und um die steuerlichen Einflüsse bereinigt. Daher werden in dem dritten Kapitel zunächst die Maßzahlen zur Darstellung der Veränderungen des Preisniveaus und des Ertragsteuereinflusses für die untersuchten Anlageformen festgelegt. Nach dieser Festlegung und der anschließenden Bereinigung um diese Einflüsse wird die Performancemessung mit den bereinigten Primärdaten durchgeführt. Eine Gegenüberstellung der wichtigsten Analyseergebnisse in dem letzten Kapitel schließt die Untersuchung ab. Datentabellen in HISTAT (Thema: Geld und Währung): A. Diskont- und LombardsatzA.1 Diskontsatz: Monatsdurchschnittswerte, Jahresdurchschnitte (1870-1992)A.2 Lombardsatz: Monatsdurchschnittswerte, Jahresdurchschnitte (1870-1992) B. Aktienkursindex und Dividenden, RentenmarktB.1a Aktienkursindex: Monatsdurchschnittswerte, Jahresdurchschnitte (1870-1992)B.2 Dividenden: Monatdurchschnittswerte (1870-1992)B.3 Rentenmarkt: Monatsdurchschnittswerte, Jahresdurchschnitte (1870-1992) C. Risikolose AnlageC.1 Privatdiskontsatz: Monatsdurchschnittswerte, Jahresdurchschnitte (1870-1991)C.2 Tagesgeldsatz: Monatsdurchschnittswerte, Jahresdurchschnitte (1924-1992) D. InflationsrateD.1 Preisindex für die Lebenshaltung (Basis 1913/14 = 100), Monatsdurchschnittswerte, Jahresdurchschnitte (1870-1992)D.2 Inflationsrate (Basis 1913 = 100), Monatsdurchschnittswerte, Jahresdurchschnitte (1870-1992) Until the 90s information on risk premiums based on empirical studies for the German capital market was only available sporadically and for short time horizons. Therefore a long term comparison of risk and return was not possible. Markus Morawietz investigates profitability and risk of German stock and bond investments since 1870. He takes inflation and tax issues into account. His work contains a comprehensive collection of primary data since 1870 on key figures on a monthly basis which describe the German capital market. The goal of the study is to identify empirical statements on parameters of the German capital market. Therefore the exposition of theoretical economic models is not of primary importance in this study. A special focus is on the potential applicability of existing Germen index numbers as base data on the empirical investigation. The first chapter “methodological bases of performance measurement” concludes with the definition of the term “performance”. The following hypothesis is tested within this study: “There is a risk premium on securities taking inflation and influences of taxes into account.” The test of this hypothesis is run over the longest time period possible. Therefore monthly data on stock and bond investment are subject of the investigation because they are the most actively traded assets. Furthermore a substitute for the risk-free investment was developed in order to determine the risk premium. Before the explicit performance measurement of the different assets takes place, empirical starting points for performance measurement will be defined. These starting points contain a relevant demarcation of the investigation period and a description of the historical events during the investigation periods for all periods. Hereby special consideration is given to the specific problems of long term German value series (interruption trough the First World War with the following Hyperinflation and the Second World War). The analysis of the basics of performance measurement concludes the empirical starting points for performance measurement. The starting points contain the definition of a substitute for the certain segment, the description and preparation of the underlying data material and the calculation method used to determine performance.The third chapter contains a concrete empirical evaluation of the available data. This evaluation is subdivided into two parts: (a) performance measurement with unadjusted original data and (b) performance measurement with adjusted primary data (adjusted for inflation and tax influences). Both parts are structured in the same way. First the performance measurement of the specific asset (stocks, bonds and risk-free instruments) will be undertaken each by itself subdivided by partial periods. Afterwards the results of the performance measurement over the entire investigation period will be analyzed. The collection of derived partial results in the then following chapter shows return risk differences between the different assets. To calculate the net performance the nominal primary data is adjusted by inflation and tax influences. Therefore measured values for the changes in price level and for tax influences will be determined in the beginning of the third chapter. Following the performance measurement will be undertaken with the adjusted primary data. A comparison of the most important results of the different analysis in the last chapter concludes.

The yield on South Africa 10Y Bond Yield eased to 9.38% on September 11, 2025, marking a 0.10 percentage point decrease from the previous session. Over the past month, the yield has fallen by 0.29 points, though it remains 0.38 points higher than a year ago, according to over-the-counter interbank yield quotes for this government bond maturity. South Africa 10-Year Government Bond Yield - values, historical data, forecasts and news - updated on September of 2025.