The average market risk premium in the United States decreased slightly to *** percent in 2023. This suggests that investors demand a slightly lower return for investments in that country, in exchange for the risk they are exposed to. This premium has hovered between *** and *** percent since 2011. What causes country-specific risk? Risk to investments come from two main sources. First, inflation causes an asset’s price to decrease in real terms. A 100 U.S. dollar investment with three percent inflation is only worth ** U.S. dollars after one year. Investors are also interested in risks of project failure or non-performing loans. The unique U.S. context Analysts have historically considered the United States Treasury to be risk-free. This view has been shifting, but many advisors continue to use treasury yield rates as a risk-free rate. Given the fact that U.S. government securities are available at a variety of terms, this gives investment managers a range of tools for predicting future market developments.

Market risk premiums (MRP) measure the expected return on investment an investor looks to make. For potential investors looking to add to their portfolio, the perfect scenario for a risk-based investment would be a high rate of return with as small a risk as possible. There are three main concepts to MRP’s, including required market risk premiums, historical market risk premiums and expected market risk premiums. In 2024, average market risk premiums in Germany stood at *** percent. MRP in Europe As of 2024, Germany had one of the ****** average market risk premium in Europe. At the same time, market risk premiums in Ukraine were almost ***** as high due to the risk of investment involved. Risk free rates Risk free rates are closely associated to market risk premiums and measure the rate of return on an investment with no risk. As there is no risk associated, the rate of return is lower than that of an MRP. Average risk free rates across Europe were relatively low in 2024. The risk free rate of investment in Germany was less than three percent as of 2024.

Graph and download economic data for Real Risk Premium (TENEXPCHAREARISPRE) from Jan 1982 to Aug 2025 about premium, real, and USA.

With LSEG's StarMine Equity Risk Premium (ERP) model, gain transparent, high-quality ERP estimates for all major equity markets around the globe.

Split into three categories (required, historical, expected), market risk premiums measure the rate of return investors expect on an investment over the risk that investment holds. In Europe, average market risk premiums (MRP) sit between **** and *** percent. Greece sees hike in MRP Although it has a relatively high market risk premium, Greece has seen its rates significantly decrease since 2020. Greece also saw a ****** than average return rate on risk free investments. The same correlation can be seen with Europe’s less risky countries for investment. With Germany seeing some of the ****** market risk premiums and risk free returns in Europe. Required, historical and expected Separating the three types of market risk premiums is straightforward. Required MRP’s differ between investors, as approaches to investment change and measure the rate of return needed for an investment to be made. Expected premiums look at the rate of return, and what they are calculated to come out as, while historical MRP’s look back over a period at the average rate of return that investors previously got in the past.

Replication data for manuscript "The Historical and Expected Equity Risk Premium in Spain: A Long-Run View, 1900-2020". We present revised estimates of the historical (ex post) equity risk premium and an original estimate of the expected (ex ante) premium for the Madrid stock market over a period of 120 years. The results are based on a new equity index, the H-IBEX (1900-1987), built on high-quality monthly data hand-collected from primary sources and methodologically aligned with the modern Spanish index, IBEX35. We also reconstructed an original weighted index of government bonds (1900-1987) which can be smoothly connected with recent data. Data include original series for equities, bonds and bills for the Madrid Stock Exchange from 1900 to 1987, at monthly and annual frequency, spliced with more recent data on equities (IBEX35) and bonds, to cover the period until 2020. Documentation includes three Excel files: monthly series, annual series and a summary of annual data.

Market risk premiums (MRP) measure the expected return on investment an investor looks to make. For potential investors looking to add to their portfolio, the perfect scenario for a risk-based investment would be a high rate of return with as small a risk as possible. There are ***** main concepts to MRP’s, including required market risk premiums, historical market risk premiums and expected market risk premiums. In 2023, average market risk premiums in Turkey increased from the previous year. Turkey has second-highest MRP in Europe In 2023, Turkey had the third-highest average market risk premium rates in Europe. That year, right above Turkey, Russia and Ukraine recorded the highest MRP rates in Europe. At the other end of the scale was Netherlands and Switzerland, whose market risk premiums averaged almost quarter of those seen in Ukraine. Risk-free rates Risk-free rates are closely associated to market risk premiums and measure the rate of return on an investment with no risk. As there is no risk associated, the rate of return is lower than that of an MRP. Average risk-free rates across Europe were relatively low in 2023, with exceptions. The risk-free rate of investment in Turkey in 2023 was **** percent.

Market risk premiums (MRP) measure the expected return on investment an investor looks to make. For potential investors looking to add to their portfolio, the perfect scenario for a risk-based investment would be a high rate of return with as small a risk as possible. There are * main concepts to MRPs, including required market risk premiums, historical market risk premiums and expected market risk premiums. In 2025, average market risk premiums in Poland decreased from the previous year to reach *** percent. Greece and Ukraine with the highest MRP in Europe In 2023, Poland was relatively well-placed for average market risk premiums in Europe, compared to other countries. Countries with the highest MRP, and therefore of the highest investment risk included Ukraine and Russia. Poland's risk premiums reached *** percent. Ukraine risk premiums averaged at ** percent in 2023. Risk-free rates Risk-free rates are closely associated to market risk premiums and measure the rate of return on an investment with no risk. As there is no risk associated, the rate of return is lower than that of an MRP. Average risk-free rates across Europe (except for Turkey and Ukraine) were relatively low in 2023. The risk-free rate of investment in Poland was *** percent as of 2023.

Average market risk premiums (MRP’s) in Sweden have fluctuated between 2011 and 2024. As of 2024, the average market risk premium in Sweden amounted to *** percent. Compared to other countries in Europe, Sweden’s average MRP was relatively low. Similar countries included the Netherlands and Norway, among others. Required, historical and expected Separating the three types of market risk premiums is straightforward. Required MRP’s differ between investors, as approaches to investment change, and measure the rate of return needed for an investment to be made. Expected premiums look at the rate of return, and what they are calculated to come out as, while historical MRP’s look back over a period at the average rate of return that investors previously got in the past. Risk-free rates Risk-free rates are closely associated to market risk premiums and measure the rate of return on an investment with no risk. As there is no risk associated, the rate of return is lower than that of an MRP. Average risk-free rates across Europe (with some exceptions) were relatively low in 2022. As of 2023, The average risk-free rate of investment in Sweden was roughly *** percent, the highest ratio recorded since 2015.

Risk premium on lending (lending rate minus treasury bill rate, %) in Brazil was reported at 29.05 % in 2024, according to the World Bank collection of development indicators, compiled from officially recognized sources. Brazil - Risk premium on lending (prime rate minus treasury bill rate, %) - actual values, historical data, forecasts and projections were sourced from the World Bank on July of 2025.

Risk premium on lending (lending rate minus treasury bill rate, %) in Georgia was reported at 4.0433 % in 2024, according to the World Bank collection of development indicators, compiled from officially recognized sources. Georgia - Risk premium on lending (prime rate minus treasury bill rate, %) - actual values, historical data, forecasts and projections were sourced from the World Bank on August of 2025.

Market risk premiums (MRP) measure the expected return on investment an investor looks to make. For potential investors looking to add to their portfolio, the perfect scenario for a risk-based investment would be a high rate of return with as small a risk as possible. There are three main concepts to MRP’s, including required market risk premiums, historical market risk premiums and expected market risk premiums. United Kingdom shows little return for risk Europe wide, Finland had one of the lowest MRP alongside Poland and Germany. Ukraine had average risk premiums of **** percent in 2024. Having a lower market risk premium may seem bad, but for countries such as the UK and Germany where rates have been consistent for several years, it is because the market is stable as an environment for investment. Risk free rates Risk free rates are closely associated to market risk premiums and measure the rate of return on an investment with no risk. As there is no risk associated, the rate of return is lower than that of an MRP. Average risk free rates across Europe are relatively low.

Market risk premiums (MRP) measure the expected return on investment an investor looks to make. For potential investors looking to add to their portfolio, the perfect scenario for a risk-based investment would be a high rate of return with as small a risk as possible. Unfortunately for investors, this is unlikely to happen as average market risks increase due to the added risk of investment. There are ***** main concepts to MRP’s, including required market risk premiums, historical market risk premiums and expected market risk premiums. In 2025, average market risk premiums in Portugal decreased from the previous year to reach *** percent. Greece and Turkey highest MRP in Europe In 2023, Portugal, compared to other European countries had a relatively higher market risk premium. Countries with the highest MRP and therefore of the highest investment risk included Turkey and Ukraine. At the other end of the scale was Switzerland, whose market risk premiums averaged half of those seen in Ukraine. Risk free rates Risk free rates are closely associated to market risk premiums and measure the rate of return on an investment with no risk. As there is no risk associated, the rate of return is lower than that of an MRP. Average market risk free rates in Europe (with some exceptions) were relatively low in 2023. The risk-free rate of investment in Portugal as of 2025 was *** percent.

Risk premium on lending (lending rate minus treasury bill rate, %) in Nigeria was reported at 9.278 % in 2023, according to the World Bank collection of development indicators, compiled from officially recognized sources. Nigeria - Risk premium on lending (prime rate minus treasury bill rate, %) - actual values, historical data, forecasts and projections were sourced from the World Bank on July of 2025.

Armenia AM: Risk Premium on Lending: Lending Rate Minus Treasury Bill Rate data was reported at 1.253 % pa in 2023. This records an increase from the previous number of 1.131 % pa for 2022. Armenia AM: Risk Premium on Lending: Lending Rate Minus Treasury Bill Rate data is updated yearly, averaging 7.526 % pa from Dec 2001 (Median) to 2023, with 23 observations. The data reached an all-time high of 13.934 % pa in 2005 and a record low of 1.131 % pa in 2022. Armenia AM: Risk Premium on Lending: Lending Rate Minus Treasury Bill Rate data remains active status in CEIC and is reported by World Bank. The data is categorized under Global Database’s Armenia – Table AM.World Bank.WDI: Interest Rates. Risk premium on lending is the interest rate charged by banks on loans to private sector customers minus the 'risk free' treasury bill interest rate at which short-term government securities are issued or traded in the market. In some countries this spread may be negative, indicating that the market considers its best corporate clients to be lower risk than the government. The terms and conditions attached to lending rates differ by country, however, limiting their comparability.;International Monetary Fund, International Financial Statistics database.;;

The average market risk premium used in Norway fluctuated between 2011 and 2024. As of 2024, the average market risk premium (MRP) in the country reached a value of *** percent. In 2024, Norway had one of the lowest MRP rates in Europe.

United States US: Risk Premium on Lending: Lending Rate Minus Treasury Bill Rate data was reported at 3.186 % pa in 2016. This records a decrease from the previous number of 3.201 % pa for 2015. United States US: Risk Premium on Lending: Lending Rate Minus Treasury Bill Rate data is updated yearly, averaging 2.868 % pa from Dec 1960 (Median) to 2016, with 57 observations. The data reached an all-time high of 4.793 % pa in 1981 and a record low of 0.587 % pa in 1965. United States US: Risk Premium on Lending: Lending Rate Minus Treasury Bill Rate data remains active status in CEIC and is reported by World Bank. The data is categorized under Global Database’s United States – Table US.World Bank.WDI: Interest Rates. Risk premium on lending is the interest rate charged by banks on loans to private sector customers minus the 'risk free' treasury bill interest rate at which short-term government securities are issued or traded in the market. In some countries this spread may be negative, indicating that the market considers its best corporate clients to be lower risk than the government. The terms and conditions attached to lending rates differ by country, however, limiting their comparability.; ; International Monetary Fund, International Financial Statistics database.; ;

Until the 90s information on risk premiums based on empirical studies for the German capital market was only available sporadically and for short time horizons. Therefore a long term comparison of risk and return was not possible. Markus Morawietz investigates profitability and risk of German stock and bond investments since 1870. He takes inflation and tax issues into account. His work contains a comprehensive collection of primary data since 1870 on key figures on a monthly basis which describe the German capital market. The goal of the study is to identify empirical statements on parameters of the German capital market. Therefore the exposition of theoretical economic models is not of primary importance in this study. A special focus is on the potential applicability of existing Germen index numbers as base data on the empirical investigation. The first chapter “methodological bases of performance measurement” concludes with the definition of the term “performance”. The following hypothesis is tested within this study: “There is a risk premium on securities taking inflation and influences of taxes into account.” The test of this hypothesis is run over the longest time period possible. Therefore monthly data on stock and bond investment are subject of the investigation because they are the most actively traded assets. Furthermore a substitute for the risk-free investment was developed in order to determine the risk premium. Before the explicit performance measurement of the different assets takes place, empirical starting points for performance measurement will be defined. These starting points contain a relevant demarcation of the investigation period and a description of the historical events during the investigation periods for all periods. Hereby special consideration is given to the specific problems of long term German value series (interruption trough the First World War with the following Hyperinflation and the Second World War). The analysis of the basics of performance measurement concludes the empirical starting points for performance measurement. The starting points contain the definition of a substitute for the certain segment, the description and preparation of the underlying data material and the calculation method used to determine performance. The third chapter contains a concrete empirical evaluation of the available data. This evaluation is subdivided into two parts: (a) performance measurement with unadjusted original data and (b) performance measurement with adjusted primary data (adjusted for inflation and tax influences). Both parts are structured in the same way. First the performance measurement of the specific asset (stocks, bonds and risk-free instruments) will be undertaken each by itself subdivided by partial periods. Afterwards the results of the performance measurement over the entire investigation period will be analyzed. The collection of derived partial results in the then following chapter shows return risk differences between the different assets. To calculate the net performance the nominal primary data is adjusted by inflation and tax influences. Therefore measured values for the changes in price level and for tax influences will be determined in the beginning of the third chapter. Following the performance measurement will be undertaken with the adjusted primary data. A comparison of the most important results of the different analysis in the last chapter concludes. Data tables in histat (topic: money and currencies): A. Discount and Lombard rate A.1 Discount rate: monthly average values, yearly average values (1870-1992) A.2 Lombard rate: monthly average values, yearly average values (1870-1992) B. Stock price index, dividends and bond market und B.1a Stock price index: monthly average values, yearly average values (1870-1992) B.2 Dividends: monthly average values (1870-1992) B.3 Bond market: monthly average values, yearly average values (1870-1992) C. Risk free instrument C.1 Private discount rate: monthly average values, yearly average values (1870-1991) C.2 Overnight rate: monthly average values, yearly average values (1924-1992) D. Inflation rate D.1 Price index for costs of living (base1913/14 = 100), monthly average values, yearly average values (1870-1992) D.2 Inflation rate (base 1913 = 100), M monthly average values, yearly average values (1870-1992)

Angola AO: Risk Premium on Lending: Lending Rate Minus Treasury Bill Rate data was reported at 6.398 % pa in 2023. This records a decrease from the previous number of 9.772 % pa for 2022. Angola AO: Risk Premium on Lending: Lending Rate Minus Treasury Bill Rate data is updated yearly, averaging 9.772 % pa from Dec 2004 (Median) to 2023, with 17 observations. The data reached an all-time high of 36.091 % pa in 2005 and a record low of -0.542 % pa in 2017. Angola AO: Risk Premium on Lending: Lending Rate Minus Treasury Bill Rate data remains active status in CEIC and is reported by World Bank. The data is categorized under Global Database’s Angola – Table AO.World Bank.WDI: Interest Rates. Risk premium on lending is the interest rate charged by banks on loans to private sector customers minus the 'risk free' treasury bill interest rate at which short-term government securities are issued or traded in the market. In some countries this spread may be negative, indicating that the market considers its best corporate clients to be lower risk than the government. The terms and conditions attached to lending rates differ by country, however, limiting their comparability.;International Monetary Fund, International Financial Statistics database.;;

Tanzania TZ: Risk Premium on Lending: Lending Rate Minus Treasury Bill Rate data was reported at -0.215 % pa in 2016. This records a decrease from the previous number of 3.234 % pa for 2015. Tanzania TZ: Risk Premium on Lending: Lending Rate Minus Treasury Bill Rate data is updated yearly, averaging 7.378 % pa from Dec 1995 (Median) to 2016, with 22 observations. The data reached an all-time high of 18.668 % pa in 1996 and a record low of -0.215 % pa in 2016. Tanzania TZ: Risk Premium on Lending: Lending Rate Minus Treasury Bill Rate data remains active status in CEIC and is reported by World Bank. The data is categorized under Global Database’s Tanzania – Table TZ.World Bank.WDI: Interest Rates. Risk premium on lending is the interest rate charged by banks on loans to private sector customers minus the 'risk free' treasury bill interest rate at which short-term government securities are issued or traded in the market. In some countries this spread may be negative, indicating that the market considers its best corporate clients to be lower risk than the government. The terms and conditions attached to lending rates differ by country, however, limiting their comparability.; ; International Monetary Fund, International Financial Statistics database.; ;