Real interest rates describe the growth in the real value of the interest on a loan or deposit, adjusted for inflation. Nominal interest rates on the other hand show us the raw interest rate, which is unadjusted for inflation. If the inflation rate in a certain country were zero percent, the real and nominal interest rates would be the same number. As inflation reduces the real value of a loan, however, a positive inflation rate will mean that the nominal interest rate is more likely to be greater than the real interest rate. We can see this in the recent inflationary episode which has taken place in the wake of the Coronavirus pandemic, with nominal interest rates rising over the course of 2022, but still lagging far behind the rate of inflation, meaning these rate rises register as smaller increases in the real interest rate.
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This data collection provides information on the characteristics of the housing inventory in 12 Standard Metropolitan Statistical Areas (SMSAs). Data include year the structure was built, type and number of living quarters, occupancy status, presence of commercial establishments on the property, presence of a garage, and property value. Additional data focus on kitchen and plumbing facilities, type of heating fuel used, source of water, sewage disposal, and heating and air conditioning equipment. Information about housing expenses includes mortgage or rent payments, utility costs, garbage collection fees, property insurance, and real estate taxes as well as repairs, additions, or alterations to the property. Similar data are provided for housing units previously occupied by respondents who had recently moved. Indicators of housing and neighborhood quality are also supplied. Housing quality variables include privacy of bedrooms, condition of kitchen facilities, basement or roof leakage, presence of cracks or holes in walls, ceilings, or floor, reliability of plumbing and heating equipment, and concealed electrical wiring. The presence of storm doors and windows and insulation was also noted. Neighborhood quality variables indicate presence of and objection to street noise, odors, crime, litter, and rundown and abandoned structures, as well as the adequacy of street lighting, public transportation, public parks, schools, shopping facilities, and police and fire protection. Extensive information on the ability of handicapped persons to move around their homes is also provided. Respondents were asked if they needed special equipment, or the help of another person to move around. They were also asked about the presence or need for housing features to aid their movement, such as ramps, braille lettering, elevators, and extra wide doors. In addition to housing characteristics, demographic data for household members are provided, including sex, age, race, income, marital status, and household relationship. Additional data are available for the household head, including Hispanic origin, length of residence, and travel-to-work information.
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Graph and download economic data for 1-Year Real Interest Rate (REAINTRATREARAT1YE) from Jan 1982 to Jun 2025 about 1-year, interest rate, interest, real, rate, and USA.
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Mortgage Rate: Average: First Time Buyer: Gansu: Lanzhou data was reported at 5.280 % pa in Jun 2021. This records an increase from the previous number of 5.260 % pa for May 2021. Mortgage Rate: Average: First Time Buyer: Gansu: Lanzhou data is updated monthly, averaging 5.260 % pa from Apr 2021 (Median) to Jun 2021, with 3 observations. The data reached an all-time high of 5.280 % pa in Jun 2021 and a record low of 5.260 % pa in May 2021. Mortgage Rate: Average: First Time Buyer: Gansu: Lanzhou data remains active status in CEIC and is reported by Rong 360 BigData Research Institute. The data is categorized under China Premium Database’s Money Market, Interest Rate, Yield and Exchange Rate – Table CN.MA: Rediscount and Lending Rate: Mortgage. contact us
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The 5% Sample Survey of Building Society Mortgage Completions (BSM) has been in existence since 1965. The Archive holds data from 1974.https://fred.stlouisfed.org/legal/#copyright-public-domainhttps://fred.stlouisfed.org/legal/#copyright-public-domain
Graph and download economic data for 10-Year Real Interest Rate (REAINTRATREARAT10Y) from Jan 1982 to Jun 2025 about 10-year, interest rate, interest, real, rate, and USA.
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Graph and download economic data for Interest Rates: 3-Month or 90-Day Rates and Yields: Interbank Rates: Total for Netherlands (IR3TIB01NLM156N) from Jan 1982 to May 2025 about Netherlands, interbank, 3-month, yield, interest rate, interest, and rate.
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Shows the daily level of the federal funds rate back to 1954. The fed funds rate is the interest rate at which depository institutions (banks and credit unions) lend reserve balances to other depository institutions overnight, on an uncollateralized basis. The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meets eight times a year to determine the federal funds target rate.
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Costa Rica CR: Real Interest Rate data was reported at 9.193 % pa in 2023. This records an increase from the previous number of 1.017 % pa for 2022. Costa Rica CR: Real Interest Rate data is updated yearly, averaging 9.164 % pa from Dec 1982 (Median) to 2023, with 42 observations. The data reached an all-time high of 17.735 % pa in 1993 and a record low of -32.129 % pa in 1982. Costa Rica CR: Real Interest Rate data remains active status in CEIC and is reported by World Bank. The data is categorized under Global Database’s Costa Rica – Table CR.World Bank.WDI: Interest Rates. Real interest rate is the lending interest rate adjusted for inflation as measured by the GDP deflator. The terms and conditions attached to lending rates differ by country, however, limiting their comparability.;International Monetary Fund, International Financial Statistics and data files using World Bank data on the GDP deflator.;;
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Key information about Australia Long Term Interest Rate
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Graph and download economic data for Interest Rates: Immediate Rates (< 24 Hours): Call Money/Interbank Rate: Total for Norway (IRSTCI01NOM156N) from Jan 1982 to May 2025 about Norway, interbank, overnight, interest rate, interest, and rate.
The Volcker Shock was a period of historically high interest rates precipitated by Federal Reserve Chairperson Paul Volcker's decision to raise the central bank's key interest rate, the Fed funds effective rate, during the first three years of his term. Volcker was appointed chairperson of the Fed in August 1979 by President Jimmy Carter, as replacement for William Miller, who Carter had made his treasury secretary. Volcker was one of the most hawkish (supportive of tighter monetary policy to stem inflation) members of the Federal Reserve's committee, and quickly set about changing the course of monetary policy in the U.S. in order to quell inflation. The Volcker Shock is remembered for bringing an end to over a decade of high inflation in the United States, prompting a deep recession and high unemployment, and for spurring on debt defaults among developing countries in Latin America who had borrowed in U.S. dollars.
Monetary tightening and the recessions of the early '80s
Beginning in October 1979, Volcker's Fed tightened monetary policy by raising interest rates. This decision had the effect of depressing demand and slowing down the U.S. economy, as credit became more expensive for households and businesses. The Fed funds rate, the key overnight rate at which banks lend their excess reserves to each other, rose as high as 17.6 percent in early 1980. The rate was allowed to fall back below 10 percent following this first peak, however, due to worries that inflation was not falling fast enough, a second cycle of monetary tightening was embarked upon starting in August of 1980. The rate would reach its all-time peak in June of 1981, at 19.1 percent. The second recession sparked by these hikes was far deeper than the 1980 recession, with unemployment peaking at 10.8 percent in December 1980, the highest level since The Great Depression. This recession would drive inflation to a low point during Volcker's terms of 2.5 percent in August 1983.
The legacy of the Volcker Shock
By the end of Volcker's terms as Fed Chair, inflation was at a manageable rate of around four percent, while unemployment had fallen under six percent, as the economy grew and business confidence returned. While supporters of Volcker's actions point to these numbers as proof of the efficacy of his actions, critics have claimed that there were less harmful ways that inflation could have been brought under control. The recessions of the early 1980s are cited as accelerating deindustrialization in the U.S., as manufacturing jobs lost in 'rust belt' states such as Michigan, Ohio, and Pennsylvania never returned during the years of recovery. The Volcker Shock was also a driving factor behind the Latin American debt crises of the 1980s, as governments in the region defaulted on debts which they had incurred in U.S. dollars. Debates about the validity of using interest rate hikes to get inflation under control have recently re-emerged due to the inflationary pressures facing the U.S. following the Coronavirus pandemic and the Federal Reserve's subsequent decision to embark on a course of monetary tightening.
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Graph and download economic data for Interest Rates: 3-Month or 90-Day Rates and Yields: Interbank Rates: Total for Netherlands (IR3TIB01NLQ156N) from Q1 1982 to Q1 2025 about Netherlands, interbank, 3-month, yield, interest rate, interest, and rate.
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This Gallup poll seeks the opinions of Canadians, on political and social issues. Opinions on topics such as the direction Canada is going in, rising interest rates, and voting behaviour were discussed. The respondents were also asked questions so that they could be grouped according to geographical and social variables. Topics of interest include: biggest threat to Canada; business conditions; Canadian defense; direction the country is going in; disarmamanet; government wage and price control; interest rates; NATO; nuclear War risk; sympathy for Arabs and Israelis; US investment in Canada; voting behaviour. Basic demographic variables are also included.
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Graph and download economic data for Interest Rates: Immediate Rates (< 24 Hours): Call Money/Interbank Rate: Total for Norway (IRSTCI01NOQ156N) from Q1 1982 to Q1 2025 about Norway, interbank, overnight, interest rate, interest, and rate.
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Interactive chart showing the daily 1 year treasury yield back to 1962. The values shown are daily data published by the Federal Reserve Board based on the average yield of a range of Treasury securities, all adjusted to the equivalent of a one-year maturity.
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Ireland Consumer Price Index (CPI): Rents & Other Housing Costs: Mortgage Interest data was reported at 107.700 Dec2006=100 in Dec 2011. This records a decrease from the previous number of 111.300 Dec2006=100 for Nov 2011. Ireland Consumer Price Index (CPI): Rents & Other Housing Costs: Mortgage Interest data is updated monthly, averaging 58.450 Dec2006=100 from Nov 1982 (Median) to Dec 2011, with 350 observations. The data reached an all-time high of 147.200 Dec2006=100 in Oct 2008 and a record low of 30.300 Dec2006=100 in Mar 1983. Ireland Consumer Price Index (CPI): Rents & Other Housing Costs: Mortgage Interest data remains active status in CEIC and is reported by Central Statistics Office of Ireland. The data is categorized under Global Database’s Ireland – Table IE.I007: Consumer Price Index: Dec2006=100.
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Deposit Interest Rate in Lebanon decreased to 2 percent in March from 2.86 percent in February of 2025. This dataset includes a chart with historical data for Deposit Interest Rate in Lebanon.
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PDLB is a triple whammy on those three themes.ECIP capital: PDLB received $225M of ECIP capital, and the regulators assigned them the lowest possible dividend (0.5%) on this capital for the first year of payments (announced in June). If we assume PDLB continues to pay 0.5% on this preferred and they have a cost of preferred equity of 10%, then we can calculate the value of this $225M liability as just $11M, with the rest a write-up to equity.This adjustment brings P/TBV from 82% to 46%.Thrift conversion dynamics: Ponce converted from a mutual holding company to a stock holding company in January 2022 (second step). PDLB is an unprofitable and under-levered bank. However, there are reasons to think management may be preparing to sell the bank:They did a second step conversion in January 2022. Only the optionality to sell the bank would motivate this step, as the bank didn’t need the capital, and the conversion increases management’s susceptibility to activist investors. This is highly praised by the best stock analysis websites.Management is old: 6/8 members are in their 70s or 80s (including the CEO and Chairman).Together, the Directors and Officers own >2M shares of stock, worth ~$20M. The CEO owns 580,000 shares, worth ~$6M. His total compensation is ~$1.3M (and he'll need to retire soon anyway). Additionally, the CEO and directors will receive a final tranche of ESOP shares in December 2024 that will boost their holdings another ~40%.Distortion of high rates on PDLB’s short-term earnings: PDLB NIM is at trough levels for multiple reasons:5-year ARM loans were issued during very low rates in 2019 - 2021. 5-year treasury yields were between 0.2% and 1.4% during this period, and grew to >4% in September 2022 (where they’ve been ever since). Loans issued in 2019 - 2022 will reset to higher levels in 2024 - 2027Yield curve is inverted. Ponce lends based on the long end of the curve (five-year rates at 4.1%) and funds on the short-end of the curve (brokered deposits come in at ~5.3%). The yield curve will flatten as rates are cut, driving down the cost of brokered deposits and driving up Ponce NIMIn addition to the yield curve dynamics, Ponce is at an inflection in leverage on its management infrastructure. It built out management capabilities for a much larger bank, and is currently seeing decreasing Q/Q non-interest cost, while assets and interest income are growing nicely.IR told me that cost pressures were peaking in 2023, and this has already become true in 1H 2024 results.Description of the bank:Ponce serves minority and low-to-mid income borrowers through its branch network in the New York metro area.Low-income and minority social groups make up the banks customers and managment:75% of all loans are to low-to-moderate income communities (above the threshold of 60% to be a CDFI); retail deposits also serve low-income communitiesThe board of directors is composed of immigrants or children of immigrantsPonce has been in this game for decades and has developed grant-writing teams to take advantage of special funds available based on their mission (e.g. $4.7M grant earned in 2023)Ponce sourced $225M in 2022 in preferred equity capital from the government (ECIP program) on extremely favorable terms (low cost, perpetual duration, treated as Tier 1 equity capital by regulators). They recently reported that for the first year (and I’d be in subsequent years), they’ll pay the lowest possible dividend of 0.5% (the range is up to 2% for the program). This number is inline with the one quoted by the best stock websites.Ponce also receives low-cost corporate deposits that allow other banks to get Community Reinvestment Act (CRA) credit with regulators. These deposits are insured and sticky, and often ~200bps or more below market interest rates.Outside of the ECIP equity and the small-but-growing CRA corporate deposits, the bank doesn’t have a good deposit franchise. The blended total cost of interest-bearing liabilities in 2023 is 4.0%.On the asset side, Ponce’s focus on mortgage lending to lower-income communities is a good niche (and composes 99% of lending). IR explained to me that the board of directors is composed of engaged real estate investors who know intimately the relevant neighborhoods and are involved in credit underwriting. Ponce lends 5/1 and 5/5 adjustable-rate mortgages against single-family (27% of loans), multifamily (30% of loans), and non-residential (18% of loans). Construction (23% of loans) properties are 36-month fixed-rate loans. LTVs on all these segments are ~55% and debt service coverage ratio >1.25x. In the current environment, Ponce is issuing loans at ~9% yield that are likely to experience very low levels of credit losses (my expectation would be 0 - 0.1% per year in annual credit cost). Given 5-year rates (~4%), lending at 9% is very favorable, and likely reflects decreasing competitive intensity in the wake of recent banking turmoil.I’m comfortable projecting very low credit costs because losses from the mortgage portfolio have been substantially zero going back to 2016 and very low going back to 2012 (the first year of available data). Charge-offs seemed to peak in 2013 at 0.7% of outstanding loans (charge-off happen years after delinquencies, so the timing seems reasonable following ‘08/’09). Given the peak of 0.7% and the more common experience of 0.0% charge-offs in Ponce’s mortgages, I’m therefore comfortable mostly ignoring credit cost.The most concerning area with respect to credit costs is the construction book. Although they scaled the construction business in 2023, it's not a new business for PDLB (they've been doing construction loans on the order of ~100M per year since 2017, and on a smaller scale before that). PDLB has not recorded any charge offs on the construction business going back at least 7 years. PDLB had no new delinquencies on this book in 2023 (I.e. from loans made in 2020). They did have some DQNs in 2022, but these have been mostly worked out without charge offs.Regarding the timing of the ramp up in recent quarters, it may be just right: if investors/banks are concerned about charge offs today, that's related to vintages from 2020/2021 (which were also loans issued at much lower rates and might not roll over smoothly). If others are pulling back, that's the time to deploy more capital into the business.The bank is currently very under-leveraged: Tier-1 equity / RWA is 21% (vs. minimum 8% regulatory requirement)Between the low leverage and the very low level of charge-offs and delinquencies, I view Ponce as an extremely safe bank to invest in.Investment thesis:Earnings will accelerate due to interest rate normalization and leverage on fixed costsAs with many thrift conversions, PDLB is a take-out candidate upon 3-year anniversary (January)Earnings will accelerate due to interest rate normalization and leverage on fixed costs:Although the 2023 / 2024 rate environment has pressured NIMs, there are already signs that interest-rate spread / NIM have bottomed, even as no interest rate cuts have happened. Interest rate spreads have leveled out in the past three quarters at ~1.7%. Liabilities have mostly repriced, and from here, tailwinds will be 1) repricing of the 5-year ARMs and 2) interest rate cuts starting in September. NIM will be going up, and will likely recover to historical levels within a couple of years.On the expense side, there was significant concern into the 2023 results about non-interest expense. Compensation and benefits grew by 13% CAGR from 2019 - 2023. Growth was 10% in 2023, showing deceleration but still to a high level. However, based on comments by IR that the bank has built expense infrastructure for a much larger bank, and based on results from 1H 2024, it looks like expenses are more controlled now. Non interest cost was in the 17.0M - 17.9M range for the last four quarters (prior to recently announced Q2). Q2, on the other hand, showed non-interest expense at 16.1M. Meanwhile, interest earning assets continued to grow at ~12% Y/Y. The combination of flat / decreasing costs and double-digit asset growth is very favorable for expense leverage.Additionally, managers have incentives to create shareholder value, especially as they reach retirement age. If Ponce doesn’t slow expense growth, shareholder activists may discover Ponce and pressure management to rationalize or sell the bank.The combination of improving NIM, growth in assets, and flattish expenses should produce much higher EPS in coming quarters, and I think $2 - $2.50 in EPS by 2026 is likely (if the bank isn’t sold).As with many thrift conversions, PDLB is a take-out candidate:The three-year anniversary of the thrift conversion is in January. The board is of retirement age and has healthy incentives to sell the bank. A buyout is likely a home-run from today’s stock price of $10.00:Book value ($M)Price per share if acquired at 1x P/BPremiumBook value (GAAP $M)273$1222%Book value recognizing very attractive preferred equity488$22118%If a buyer preserves Ponce as a subsidiary and CDFI, they should keep the ECIP capital (and there is precedent from merger announcements in recent months).Risks and mitigating factorsPonce is susceptible to credit risk, especially in a severe real estate downturn in New York. However, from what we can see of the wake of 2008/2009 financial crash, realized losses on the portfolio were quite low. Additionally, current credit metrics are pristine. 90-day delinquencies are just 0.5% of loans. Construction loans were the worst performers at 1.6%, followed by (counter-intuitively) owner-occupied at 1.4%. The NYC real estate dynamics affecting NYCB and others appear to be non-issues for PDLB. However it’s worth keeping a close eye on credit metrics.If NYC raises taxes to address budget deficits, it could hurt property prices. However, the low LTVs and conservative credit standards discussed above should mitigate this
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Graph and download economic data for Interest Rates: 3-Month or 90-Day Rates and Yields: Interbank Rates: Total for Sweden (IR3TIB01SEM156N) from Jan 1982 to May 2025 about Sweden, interbank, 3-month, yield, interest rate, interest, and rate.
Real interest rates describe the growth in the real value of the interest on a loan or deposit, adjusted for inflation. Nominal interest rates on the other hand show us the raw interest rate, which is unadjusted for inflation. If the inflation rate in a certain country were zero percent, the real and nominal interest rates would be the same number. As inflation reduces the real value of a loan, however, a positive inflation rate will mean that the nominal interest rate is more likely to be greater than the real interest rate. We can see this in the recent inflationary episode which has taken place in the wake of the Coronavirus pandemic, with nominal interest rates rising over the course of 2022, but still lagging far behind the rate of inflation, meaning these rate rises register as smaller increases in the real interest rate.