The number of U.S. home sales in the United States declined in 2024, after soaring in 2021. A total of four million transactions of existing homes, including single-family, condo, and co-ops, were completed in 2024, down from 6.12 million in 2021. According to the forecast, the housing market is forecast to head for recovery in 2025, despite transaction volumes expected to remain below the long-term average. Why have home sales declined? The housing boom during the coronavirus pandemic has demonstrated that being a homeowner is still an integral part of the American dream. Nevertheless, sentiment declined in the second half of 2022 and Americans across all generations agreed that the time was not right to buy a home. A combination of factors has led to house prices rocketing and making homeownership unaffordable for the average buyer. A survey among owners and renters found that the high home prices and unfavorable economic conditions were the two main barriers to making a home purchase. People who would like to purchase their own home need to save up a deposit, have a good credit score, and a steady and sufficient income to be approved for a mortgage. In 2022, mortgage rates experienced the most aggressive increase in history, making the total cost of homeownership substantially higher. Are U.S. home prices expected to fall? The median sales price of existing homes stood at 413,000 U.S. dollars in 2024 and was forecast to increase slightly until 2026. The development of the S&P/Case Shiller U.S. National Home Price Index shows that home prices experienced seven consecutive months of decline between June 2022 and January 2023, but this trend reversed in the following months. Despite mild fluctuations throughout the year, home prices in many metros are forecast to continue to grow, albeit at a much slower rate.

The U.S. housing market continues to evolve, with the median home price forecast to reach ******* U.S. dollars by the second quarter of 2026. This projection comes after a period of significant growth and recent fluctuations, reflecting the complex interplay of economic factors affecting the real estate sector. The rising costs have not only impacted home prices, but also down payments, with the median down payment more than doubling since 2012. Regional variations in housing costs Home prices and down payments vary dramatically across the United States. While the national median down payment stood at approximately ****** U.S. dollars in early 2024, homebuyers in states like California, Massachusetts, and Hawaii faced down payments exceeding ****** U.S. dollars. This disparity highlights the challenges of homeownership in high-cost markets and underscores the importance of location in determining housing affordability. Market dynamics and future outlook The housing market has shown signs of cooling after years of rapid growth, with more modest price increases of *** percent in 2022 and *** percent in 2023. This slowdown can be attributed in part to rising mortgage rates, which have tempered demand. Despite these challenges, most states continued to see year-over-year price growth in the fourth quarter of 2023, with Rhode Island and Vermont leading the pack at over ** percent appreciation. As the market adjusts to new economic realities, potential homebuyers and investors alike will be watching closely for signs of stabilization or renewed growth in the coming years.

The number of home sales in the United States peaked in 2021 at almost ************* after steadily rising since 2018. Nevertheless, the market contracted in the following year, with transaction volumes falling to ***********. Home sales remained muted in 2024, with a mild increase expected in 2025 and 2026. A major factor driving this trend is the unprecedented increase in mortgage interest rates due to high inflation. How have U.S. home prices developed over time? The average sales price of new homes has also been rising since 2011. Buyer confidence seems to have recovered after the property crash, which has increased demand for homes and also the prices sellers are demanding for homes. At the same time, the affordability of U.S. homes has decreased. Both the number of existing and newly built homes sold has declined since the housing market boom during the coronavirus pandemic. Challenges in housing supply The number of housing units in the U.S. rose steadily between 1975 and 2005 but has remained fairly stable since then. Construction increased notably in the 1990s and early 2000s, with the number of construction starts steadily rising, before plummeting amid the infamous housing market crash. Housing starts slowly started to pick up in 2011, mirroring the economic recovery. In 2022, the supply of newly built homes plummeted again, as supply chain challenges following the COVID-19 pandemic and tariffs on essential construction materials such as steel and lumber led to prices soaring.

New Home Sales in the United States decreased to 623 Thousand units in May from 722 Thousand units in April of 2025. This dataset provides the latest reported value for - United States New Home Sales - plus previous releases, historical high and low, short-term forecast and long-term prediction, economic calendar, survey consensus and news.

Housing Index in Australia increased to 183.90 points in the fourth quarter of 2021 from 175.60 points in the third quarter of 2021. This dataset provides the latest reported value for - Australia House Price Index - plus previous releases, historical high and low, short-term forecast and long-term prediction, economic calendar, survey consensus and news.

Housing Index in Sweden decreased to 936 points in the first quarter of 2025 from 937 points in the fourth quarter of 2024. This dataset provides - Sweden House Price Index - actual values, historical data, forecast, chart, statistics, economic calendar and news.

Housing Index in Jordan decreased to 104.30 points in the third quarter of 2021 from 105.40 points in the second quarter of 2021. This dataset provides - Jordan Building Permits - actual values, historical data, forecast, chart, statistics, economic calendar and news.

Analysis of ‘Amsterdam House Price Prediction’ provided by Analyst-2 (analyst-2.ai), based on source dataset retrieved from https://www.kaggle.com/thomasnibb/amsterdam-house-price-prediction on 28 January 2022.

--- Dataset description provided by original source is as follows ---

Context

If you are like me, you might get overwhelmed when having to make big decisions such as buying a house. In such cases, I always like to go for a data driven approach, that will help me find an optimum solution. This involves two steps. First, we need to gather as much data as we can. Second, we need to define a metric for success.

Gathering housing prices requires some effort. A caveat is that the asking prices are not the prices to which the houses were actually sold. Defining a metric for success is somewhat subjective. I consider a house to be a good option if the house price is cheap compared to other listings in the area.

Content

The housing prices have been obtained from Pararius.nl as a snapshot in August 2021. The original data provided features such as price, floor area and the number of rooms. The data has been further enhanced by utilising the Mapbox API to obtain the coordinates of each listing.

Acknowledgements

Thanks to Pararius

--- Original source retains full ownership of the source dataset ---

Nahb Housing Market Index in the United States decreased to 32 points in June from 34 points in May of 2025. This dataset provides the latest reported value for - United States Nahb Housing Market Index - plus previous releases, historical high and low, short-term forecast and long-term prediction, economic calendar, survey consensus and news.

Existing Home Sales in the United States increased to 4030 Thousand in May from 4000 Thousand in April of 2025. This dataset provides the latest reported value for - United States Existing Home Sales - plus previous releases, historical high and low, short-term forecast and long-term prediction, economic calendar, survey consensus and news.

Housing Starts in the United States decreased to 1256 Thousand units in May from 1392 Thousand units in April of 2025. This dataset provides the latest reported value for - United States Housing Starts - plus previous releases, historical high and low, short-term forecast and long-term prediction, economic calendar, survey consensus and news.

SCE: Home Price Change Expectation: 1 Year Ahead: Median Point Prediction data was reported at 5.005 % in Apr 2025. This records an increase from the previous number of 4.936 % for Mar 2025. SCE: Home Price Change Expectation: 1 Year Ahead: Median Point Prediction data is updated monthly, averaging 4.808 % from Jun 2013 (Median) to Apr 2025, with 143 observations. The data reached an all-time high of 9.810 % in May 2021 and a record low of -2.321 % in Apr 2020. SCE: Home Price Change Expectation: 1 Year Ahead: Median Point Prediction data remains active status in CEIC and is reported by Federal Reserve Bank of New York. The data is categorized under Global Database’s United States – Table US.H079: Survey of Consumer Expectations: House Price.

The U.S. mortgage market has declined notably since 2020 and 2021, mostly due to the effect of higher borrowing costs on refinance mortgages. The value of refinancing mortgage originations, amounted to 190 billion U.S. dollars in the fourth quarter of 2024, down from a peak of 851 billion U.S. dollars in the fourth quarter of 2020. The value of mortgage loans for the purchase of a property recorded milder fluctuations, with a value of 304 billion U.S. dollars in the fourth quarter of 2024. According to the forecast, mortgage lending is expected to slightly increase until the end of 2026. The cost of mortgage borrowing in the U.S. Mortgage interest rates in the U.S. rose dramatically in 2022, peaking in the final quarter of 2024. In 2020, a homebuyer could lock in a 30-year fixed interest rate of under three percent, whereas in 2024, the average rate for the same mortgage type exceeded 6.6 percent. This has led to a decline in homebuyer sentiment, and an increasing share of the population pessimistic about buying a home in the current market. The effect of a slower housing market on property prices and rents According to the S&P/Case Shiller U.S. National Home Price Index, housing prices experienced a slight correction in early 2023, as property transactions declined. Nevertheless, the index continued to grow in the following months. On the other hand, residential rents have increased steadily since 2000.

DNB Forecast: House Prices: YoY data was reported at 2.900 % in 2021. This records a decrease from the previous number of 3.600 % for 2020. DNB Forecast: House Prices: YoY data is updated yearly, averaging 3.600 % from Dec 2017 (Median) to 2021, with 5 observations. The data reached an all-time high of 4.000 % in 2017 and a record low of 2.900 % in 2021. DNB Forecast: House Prices: YoY data remains active status in CEIC and is reported by Danmarks Nationalbank. The data is categorized under Global Database’s Denmark – Table DK.P004: House Prices: Year on Year Growth: Forecast: Denmark National Bank.

House prices in Germany rose by about 12 percent in 2021 but price growth is forecast to slow down until 2024. According to a report by the Deutsche Bundesbank, the German housing market is set to experience a 1.2 percent increase in the average house price in 2023 and 3.2 percent increase in 2024. According to the source, despite higher construction costs, financing costs, and overall economic uncertainty, the high housing demand alongside insufficient supply are likely to continue to drive prices up. Residential real estate prices in the largest cities have grown substantially since 2012. In Munich - Germany's most expensive residential market - the square meter price reached almost 11,000 euros per square meter in 2022.

According to Cognitive Market Research, the global Real Estate Sector market size will be USD 3625.5 million in 2024. It will expand at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 5.50% from 2024 to 2031.

North America held the major market share for more than 40% of the global revenue with a market size of USD 1450.20 million in 2024 and will grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 3.7% from 2024 to 2031.
Europe accounted for a market share of over 30% of the global revenue with a market size of USD 1087.65 million.
Asia Pacific held a market share of around 23% of the global revenue with a market size of USD 833.87 million in 2024 and will grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 4.0% from 2024 to 2031.
Latin America had a market share of more than 5% of the global revenue with a market size of USD 181.28 million in 2024 and will grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 4.9% from 2024 to 2031.
Middle East and Africa had a market share of around 2% of the global revenue and was estimated at a market size of USD 72.51 million in 2024 and will grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 5.2% from 2024 to 2031.
The Commercial real estate is the fastest-growing segment, driven by economic development, urbanization, and a shift toward modern, multi-use spaces

Market Dynamics of Real Estate Sector Market

Key Drivers for Real Estate Sector Market

Urbanization and Population Growth to Boost Market Growth

Urbanization is one of the primary drivers of the real estate sector. As more people migrate from rural areas to urban centers, there is an increasing demand for both residential and commercial properties. The growth of megacities around the world has spurred significant development in infrastructure, housing, and office spaces. This trend is expected to continue as populations in cities grow, creating new opportunities for real estate developers to meet the expanding demand for housing, retail spaces, and industrial areas. Additionally, urbanization leads to an increase in disposable income, further boosting the demand for better housing options and modern amenities. For instance, in October 2021, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) stated that the benchmark interest rate would remain at 4%, providing a substantial boost to the country's real estate sector. Low house loan interest rates are predicted to fuel housing demand and boost sales by 35-40% during the holiday season of 2021

Economic Expansion and Rising Income Levels to Drive Market Growth

The overall economic expansion in many countries is another key driver for the real estate market. As economies grow, the demand for residential, commercial, and industrial properties rises in tandem. Rising income levels also contribute to increased purchasing power, allowing more people to invest in homes and businesses. Furthermore, a strong economy often leads to higher investor confidence, attracting more capital into the real estate sector. The construction of new infrastructure projects such as highways, airports, and transport systems also fuels further demand for real estate, thereby benefiting the market.

Restraint Factor for the Real Estate Sector Market

High Construction Costs, will Limit Market Growth

One of the significant restraints in the real estate sector is the rising cost of construction materials and labor. The volatility in the prices of raw materials such as steel, cement, and timber, combined with labor shortages, leads to higher construction costs, which can delay projects and reduce profit margins. Additionally, increased costs can make property prices unaffordable for potential buyers, thus slowing the pace of development. This situation is exacerbated by global supply chain disruptions and inflationary pressures, which negatively affect the overall cost structure in real estate development. Developers must navigate these challenges while maintaining competitive pricing to ensure market viability.

Impact of Covid-19 on the Real Estate Sector Market

Covid-19 pandemic significantly impacted the real estate sector, leading to shifts in both demand and operational dynamics. During the early phases of the pandemic, lockdowns and economic uncertainties caused a slowdown in construction activities, delays in project completions, and a decline in property transactions. The residential market experienced a surge in demand for larger homes and properties in suburban areas as people ...

ANZ Forecast: REINZ House Price Index: YoY data was reported at 4.900 % in 2026. This records a decrease from the previous number of 5.000 % for 2025. ANZ Forecast: REINZ House Price Index: YoY data is updated yearly, averaging 4.900 % from Dec 2018 (Median) to 2026, with 9 observations. The data reached an all-time high of 26.500 % in 2021 and a record low of -12.800 % in 2022. ANZ Forecast: REINZ House Price Index: YoY data remains active status in CEIC and is reported by ANZ Bank New Zealand. The data is categorized under Global Database’s New Zealand – Table NZ.EB006: House Price Index: Forecast: ANZ Bank Ltd.

Key information about House Prices Growth

• Indonesia house prices grew 1.4% YoY in Dec 2024, following an increase of 1.5% YoY in the previous quarter.
• YoY growth data is updated quarterly, available from Mar 2003 to Dec 2024, with an average growth rate of 3.1%.
• House price data reached an all-time high of 13.5% in Sep 2013 and a record low of 1.0% in Jun 2021.

CEIC calculates House Prices Growth from quarterly Residential Property Price Index. Bank Indonesia provides Residential Property Price Index with base 2018=100. House Prices Growth covers 18 major cities. House Prices Growth prior to Q1 2019 is calculated from House Price Index with base 2002=100. House Prices Growth prior to Q1 2013 covers 14 major cities.