During the COVID-19 pandemic, the number of house sales in the UK spiked, followed by a period of decline. In 2023, the housing market slowed notably, and in September 2024, transaction volumes fell below 50,000. House sales volumes are affected by a number of factors, including mortgage rates, house prices, supply, demand, as well as the overall health of the market. The economic uncertainty and rising unemployment rates has also affected the homebuyer sentiment of Brits. How have UK house prices developed over the past 10 years? House prices in the UK have increased year-on-year since 2015, except for a brief period of decline in the second half of 2023 and the beginning of 2024. That is based on the 12-month percentage change of the UK house price index. At the peak of the housing boom in 2022, prices soared by nearly 14 percent. The decline that followed was mild, at under three percent. The cooling in the market was more pronounced in England and Wales, where the average house price declined in 2023. Conversely, growth in Scotland and Northern Ireland continued. What is the impact of mortgage rates on house sales? For a long period, mortgage rates were at record-low, allowing prospective homebuyers to take out a 10-year loan at a mortgage rate of less than three percent. In the last quarter of 2021, this period came to an end as the Bank of England rose the bank lending rate to contain the spike in inflation. Naturally, the higher borrowing costs affected consumer sentiment, urging many homebuyers to place their plans on hold and leading to a drop in sales.

England accounts for the majority of sales in the residential real estate market in the United Kingdom. In September 2024, the total number of housing transactions in the country amounted to nearly 92,000, with approximately 80,000 of these property sales being completed in England. Historically, sales activity has observed notable fluctuations because of the seasonal nature of the market, but also other trends in the market, such as the slump in April 2020 related to the COVID-19 pandemic A declining number of home sales The annual number of home sales in the UK has declined since 2021, with 2023 exhibiting the lowest transaction volume since 2012. The main reason for that trend is the increase in the cost of housing. House prices grew year-on-year between 2012 and 2022, with growth accelerating toward the end of the period due to the record-low mortgage rates. As the cost of living crisis hit in 2022, the Bank of England hiked interest rates, resulting in dramatically higher home finance costs. With house prices at their peak and a double increase in borrowing costs, many prospective homebuyers could not afford to buy and placed their plans on hold. How will prices develop in the next five years? After a slight decline in 2024, house prices in the UK are expected to pick up in the next year and continue on an upward trend until 2028. On average, house prices are projected to grow by 2.7 percent per year.

The housing market in England cooled in 2022 and 2023, after a record year in 2021. In 2023, the number of housing transactions reached approximately 858,000, which was the lowest figure since 2012 when the market was still recovering from the global financial crisis. Some of the main factors that have led to the decline in home buying are the cost of living crisis, higher mortgage rates, low inventory, and the rapid increase in house prices across the UK.

Just as in many other countries, the housing market in the UK grew substantially during the coronavirus pandemic, fueled by robust demand and low borrowing costs. Nevertheless, high inflation and the increase in mortgage rates has led to house price growth slowing down. According to the forecast, 2024 is expected to see house prices decrease by three percent. Between 2024 and 2028, the average house price growth is projected at 2.7 percent. A contraction after a period of continuous growth In June 2022, the UK's house price index exceeded 150 index points, meaning that since 2015 which was the base year for the index, house prices had increased by 50 percent. In just two years, between 2020 and 2022, the index surged by 30 index points. As the market stood in December 2023, the average price for a home stood at approximately 284,691 British pounds. Rents are expected to continue to grow According to another forecast, the prime residential market is also expected to see rental prices grow in the next years. Growth is forecast to be stronger in 2024 and slow down in the period between 2025 and 2028. The rental market in London is expected to follow a similar trend, with Central London slightly outperforming Greater London.

The volume of residential property sales in London dropped substantially after 2007 as a result of the global financial crisis. Though housing transactions gradually increased until 2014, sales volumes remained shy from the period before the financial crisis. The housing boom in 2021 led to transactions jumping to nearly 108,000, up from 75,000 the year before. That substantial increase was followed by two years of the market contracting.

Portugal, Canada, and the United States were the countries with the highest house price to income ratio in 2023. In all three countries, the index exceeded 130 index points, while the average for all OECD countries stood at 117.5 index points. The index measures the development of housing affordability and is calculated by dividing nominal house price by nominal disposable income per head, with 2015 set as a base year when the index amounted to 100. An index value of 120, for example, would mean that house price growth has outpaced income growth by 20 percent since 2015. How have house prices worldwide changed since the COVID-19 pandemic? House prices started to rise gradually after the global financial crisis (2007–2008), but this trend accelerated with the pandemic. The countries with advanced economies, which usually have mature housing markets, experienced stronger growth than countries with emerging economies. Real house price growth (accounting for inflation) peaked in 2022 and has since lost some of the gain. Although, many countries experienced a decline in house prices, the global house price index shows that property prices in 2023 were still substantially higher than before COVID-19. Renting vs. buying In the past, house prices have grown faster than rents. However, the home affordability has been declining notably, with a direct impact on rental prices. As people struggle to buy a property of their own, they often turn to rental accommodation. This has resulted in a growing demand for rental apartments and soaring rental prices.

In 2023, Germany had the largest housing stock among European countries with a total of 43.6 million housing units. Other countries heading the ranking were France, Spain, and the United Kingdom (UK). This was not surprising, considering that the top four countries have some of the largest population in Europe. In terms of the number of housing units per 1,000 citizens, however, the top three countries were Bulgaria, Spain and France. Which European countries build the most housing? Supply of new housing varies greatly in different countries. In 2023, Ireland and Poland delivered the highest number of housing completions, but when it comes to construction starts, Ireland topped the ranking, leaving Serbia and Austria in second and third place, respectively. How did house prices change in 2023? Demand for housing remained strong in 2023, causing house prices to grow in almost all European countries. The United Kingdom was one of the few countries where home prices declined - a result of the soaring interest rates and cost of living crisis. Hungary was at the other side of the spectrum, with house prices surging by more than 13 percent.

With the collapse of the U.S. housing market and the subsequent financial crisis on Wall Street in 2007 and 2008, economies across the globe began to enter into deep recessions. What had started out as a crisis centered on the United States quickly became global in nature, as it became apparent that not only had the economies of other advanced countries (grouped together as the G7) become intimately tied to the U.S. financial system, but that many of them had experienced housing and asset price bubbles similar to that in the U.S.. The United Kingdom had experienced a huge inflation of housing prices since the 1990s, while Eurozone members (such as Germany, France and Italy) had financial sectors which had become involved in reckless lending to economies on the periphery of the EU, such as Greece, Ireland and Portugal. Other countries, such as Japan, were hit heavily due their export-led growth models which suffered from the decline in international trade. Unemployment during the Great Recession As business and consumer confidence crashed, credit markets froze, and international trade contracted, the unemployment rate in the most advanced economies shot up. While four to five percent is generally considered to be a healthy unemployment rate, nearing full employment in the economy (when any remaining unemployment is not related to a lack of consumer demand), many of these countries experienced rates at least double that, with unemployment in the United States peaking at almost 10 percent in 2010. In large countries, unemployment rates of this level meant millions or tens of millions of people being out of work, which led to political pressures to stimulate economies and create jobs. By 2012, many of these countries were seeing declining unemployment rates, however, in France and Italy rates of joblessness continued to increase as the Euro crisis took hold. These countries suffered from having a monetary policy which was too tight for their economies (due to the ECB controlling interest rates) and fiscal policy which was constrained by EU debt rules. Left with the option of deregulating their labor markets and pursuing austerity policies, their unemployment rates remained over 10 percent well into the 2010s. Differences in labor markets The differences in unemployment rates at the peak of the crisis (2009-2010) reflect not only the differences in how economies were affected by the downturn, but also the differing labor market institutions and programs in the various countries. Countries with more 'liberalized' labor markets, such as the United States and United Kingdom experienced sharp jumps in their unemployment rate due to the ease at which employers can lay off workers in these countries. When the crisis subsided in these countries, however, their unemployment rates quickly began to drop below those of the other countries, due to their more dynamic labor markets which make it easier to hire workers when the economy is doing well. On the other hand, countries with more 'coordinated' labor market institutions, such as Germany and Japan, experiences lower rates of unemployment during the crisis, as programs such as short-time work, job sharing, and wage restraint agreements were used to keep workers in their jobs. While these countries are less likely to experience spikes in unemployment during crises, the highly regulated nature of their labor markets mean that they are slower to add jobs during periods of economic prosperity.

Repossessions occur when a borrower fails to repay their loan on time or a tenant is late on their rent, and the lender takes possession of the property. To avoid a spike in repossessions during the coronavirus (COVID-19) crisis, the Financial Conduct Authority (FCA) introduced measures for renters and mortgage borrowers. As a result, the number of repossessions fell to a record low in 2020. In the second quarter of 2024, there were 854 repossessions of mortgaged homes and 6,927 repossessions of rental properties by landlords.