The average house price in England started to increase in the first half of 2024, after falling by over three percent year-on-year in December 2023. In June 2024, the house price index amounted to 149.7 index points, suggesting an increase in house prices of 2.4 percent since the same month in 2023 and a roughly 50 percent rise since 2015 - the baseline year for the index. Among the different regions in the UK, West and East Midlands experienced the strongest growth.

In 2022, house price growth in the UK slowed, after a period of decade-long increase. Nevertheless, in August 2024, prices reached a new peak, with the average home costing close to 290,000 British pounds. That figure refers to all property types, including detached, semi-detached, terraced houses, and flats and maisonettes. Compared to other European countries, the UK had some of the highest house prices. How have UK house prices increased over the last 10 years? Property prices have risen dramatically over the past decade. According to the UK house price index, the average house price has grown by over 50 percent since 2015. This price development has led to the gap between the cost of buying and renting a property to close. In 2023, buying a three-bedroom house in the UK was no longer more affordable than renting one. Consequently, Brits have become more likely to rent longer and push off making a house purchase until they have saved up enough for a down payment and achieved the financial stability required to make the step. What caused the decline in house prices in 2022? House prices are affected by multiple factors, such as mortgage rates, supply, and demand on the market. For nearly a decade, the UK experienced uninterrupted house price growth as a result of strong demand and a chronic undersupply. Homebuyers who purchased a property at the peak of the housing boom in July 2022 paid 14 percent more compared to what they would have paid a year before. Additionally, 2022 saw the most dramatic increase in mortgage rates in recent history. Between December 2021 and December 2022, the 10-year fixed mortgage rate doubled, adding further strain to prospective homebuyers. As a result, the market cooled, leading to a correction in pricing.

House prices in the UK rose dramatically during the coronavirus pandemic, with growth slowing down in 2022 and turning negative in 2023. The year-on-year annual house price change peaked at 14 percent in July 2022. In June 2024, house prices increased by 2.7 percent. According to the Nationwide Building Society, the average house price exceeded 265,000 British pounds in 2022. Correction in housing prices: a European phenomenon The trend of a growing residential real estate market was not exclusive to the UK during the pandemic. Likewise, many European countries experienced falling prices in 2023. When comparing residential property RHPI (price index in real terms, e.g. corrected for inflation), countries such as Germany, France, Italy, and Spain also saw prices decline. Sweden, one of the countries with the fastest growing residential markets, saw one of the largest declines in prices. How has demand for UK housing changed since the outbreak of the coronavirus? The easing of the lockdown was followed by a dramatic increase in home sales. In November 2020, the number of mortgage approvals reached an all-time high of over 107,000. One of the reasons for the housing boom were the low mortgage rates, allowing home buyers to take out a loan with an interest rate as low as 2.5 percent. That changed as the Bank of England started to raise the base lending rate, resulting in higher borrowing costs and a decline in homebuyer sentiment.

The house price index in London reached 129.9 index points in June 2024, which was an increase from a year ago, despite a mild correction. The house price index (HPI) is an easy way of illustrating trends in the house sales market and help simplify house purchase decisions. By using hedonic regression, the index models property price data for all dwellings and shows how much the price has changed since January 2015. How have regional house prices in the UK developed? House prices in other UK regions have risen even more than in London. In the North West, the house price index exceeded 160 index points, ranking it among the regions with the highest property appreciation. The UK house price index stood at 151 index points, suggesting an increase of 51 percent since 2015. Average house prices Location plays a huge role in the price of a home. Kensington and Chelsea and City of Westminster are undoubtedly the most expensive boroughs in London, with an average house price that can exceed one million British pounds. In comparison, a house in Barking and Dagenham cost approximately one third. Nevertheless, the housing market is the busiest in the boroughs with average house prices.

Just as in many other countries, the housing market in the UK grew substantially during the coronavirus pandemic, fueled by robust demand and low borrowing costs. Nevertheless, high inflation and the increase in mortgage rates has led to house price growth slowing down. According to the forecast, 2024 is expected to see house prices decrease by three percent. Between 2024 and 2028, the average house price growth is projected at 2.7 percent. A contraction after a period of continuous growth In June 2022, the UK's house price index exceeded 150 index points, meaning that since 2015 which was the base year for the index, house prices had increased by 50 percent. In just two years, between 2020 and 2022, the index surged by 30 index points. As the market stood in December 2023, the average price for a home stood at approximately 284,691 British pounds. Rents are expected to continue to grow According to another forecast, the prime residential market is also expected to see rental prices grow in the next years. Growth is forecast to be stronger in 2024 and slow down in the period between 2025 and 2028. The rental market in London is expected to follow a similar trend, with Central London slightly outperforming Greater London.

The average house price in Northern Ireland has increased since 2015, with minor fluctuations over time. The house price index is calculated using data on housing transactions and measures the development of house prices, with 2015 chosen as a base year when the index value was set to 100. In June 2024, the house price index reached 166.8, meaning that house prices have grown by nearly 67 percent since 2015 and 6.4 percent since the same month a year ago. Among the different regions in the UK, West and East Midlands experienced the strongest growth.

Affordability ratios calculated by dividing house prices by gross annual residence-based earnings. Based on the median and lower quartiles of both house prices and earnings in England and Wales.

The average house price in Wales has increased since 2015, with minor fluctuations over time. The house price index is calculated using data on housing transactions and measures the development of house prices, with 2015 chosen as a base year when the index value is set to 100. In June 2024, the house price index reached 158.3 index points, meaning that house prices have grown by 58 percent since 2015 and 1.8 percent since June 2023. Among the different regions in the UK, West and East Midlands experienced the strongest growth.

The monthly house price index in London has been steadily increasing in recent years. In June 2024, the index reached 129.9, up from 129 a year before. Nevertheless, prices widely varied in different London boroughs, with Kensington and Chelsea being the priciest boroughs for an apartment purchase.

Affordability ratios calculated by dividing house prices by gross annual workplace-based earnings. Based on the median and lower quartiles of both house prices and earnings in England and Wales.

This statistic illustrates the average house prices in London by local authority district as of December 1997 and December 2017. the graph shows the price rises that have occurred for housing in a twenty year period. The average house price in Kensington and Chelsea at the end of 1997 was over 265 thousand British pounds which rose to over 1.21 million British pounds in 2017. The entirety of London has seen huge price increases over the last twenty years.

Investment in office real estate in London declined in 2022 and remained low in 2023. In the fourth quarter of 2023, the value of investment allocated to offices stood at 1.82 billion British pounds, which was an increase from the same period in 2022 but shy from previous years. Demand for offices has stalled since the pandemic, causing an increase in vacancy rates.

The average house price in Scotland has increased since 2015, with minor fluctuations over time. The house price index is calculated using data on housing transactions and measures the development of house prices, with 2015 chosen as a base year when the index value was set to 100. In June 2024, the index reached 142.6, suggesting a house price growth of 4.3 percent since June 2023 and nearly 43 percent since 2015. Among the different regions in the UK, West and East Midlands experienced the strongest growth.

Construction Output Price Indices (OPIs) from January 2014 to December 2024, UK. Summary.

Homelessness in Scotland This publication gives an overview of key trends and features of homelessness in Scotland. It provides information on homelessness applications, assessments and outcomes to 31 March 2017. Data on households in temporary accommodation as at 31 March 2017 are also presented, together with data on households placed in unsuitable accommodation. Source: http://www.gov.scot/Publications/2017/06/8907/downloads UK House Price Index 2004-2017 Describes various types of housing published between 2004-2017 and their price indices. Area codes included and percentage price change are also included. This file includes a derived back series for the new UK HPI Link: https://www.gov.uk/government/statistical-data-sets/uk-house-price-index-data-downloads-december-2017?utm_medium=GOV.UK&utm_source=scotland&utm_campaign=UKHPI_Scotlandreport&utm_term=9.30_13_02_18&utm_content=download_data Youth Homelessness Analysis 2016-17 Data focusing on populations between 16-24 years of age, covering the periods between 2007/2008 and 2016/2017 and defined by locality. Data includes age at application, rate of youth homelessness, household compositions and other descriptors of the population. http://www.gov.scot/Topics/Statistics/Browse/Housing-Regeneration/RefTables/adhoc-analysis/adhoc-analysis

Average House Prices: England: London在2020-05达479,018.000 GBP，相较于2020-04的484,597.000 GBP有所下降。Average House Prices: England: London数据按月度更新，2005-01至2020-05期间平均值为308,962.000 GBP，共185份观测结果。该数据的历史最高值出现于2017-07，达488,527.000 GBP，而历史最低值则出现于2005-03，为231,263.000 GBP。CEIC提供的Average House Prices: England: London数据处于定期更新的状态，数据来源于HM Land Registry，数据归类于Global Database的英国 – Table UK.EB016: Average House Prices: HM Land Registry。

Trend-based projections

Four variants of trend-based population projections and corresponding household projections are currently available to download. These are labelled as High, Central and Low and differ in their domestic migration assumptions beyond 2017. The economic crisis has been linked to a fall in migration from London to the rest of the UK and a rise in flows from the UK to London. The variants reflect a range of scenarios relating to possible return to pre-crisis trends in migration.

High: In this scenario, the changes to domestic migration flows are considered to be structural and recent patterns persist regardless of an improving economic outlook.

Low: Changes to domestic migration patterns are assumed to be transient and return to pre-crisis trends beyond 2018. Domestic outflow propensities increase by 10% and inflows decrease by 6% as compared to the High variant.

Central: Assumes recent migration patterns are partially transient and partially structural. Beyond 2018, domestic outlow propensities increase by 5% and inflows by 3% as compared to the High variant.

Central - incorporating 2012-based fertility assumptions: Uses the same migration assumptions as the Central projeciton above, but includes updated age-specific-fertility-rates based on 2011 birth data and future fertility trends taken from ONS's 2012-based National Population Projections. The impact of these changes is to increase fertility by ~10% in the long term.

GLA 2013 round trend-based population projections:
Borough: High
Borough: Low
Borough: Central
Borough: Central - incorporating 2012-based NPP fertility assumptions
Ward: Central

GLA 2013 round trend-based household projections:
Borough: High
Borough: Low
Borough: Central

GLA 2013 round ethnic group population projections:
Borough: Central

Updates:
Update 03-2014: GLA 2013 round of trend-based population projections - Methodology
Update 04-2014: GLA 2013 round of trend-based population projections - Results
Data to accompany Update 04-2014
Update 12-2014: GLA 2013 round ethnic group population projections
Data to accompany Update 12-2014

Housing linked projections

Two variants of housing-linked projections are available based on housing trajectories derived from the 2013 Strategic Housing Land Availability Assessment (SHLAA). The two variants are produced using different models to constrain the population to available dwellings. These are referred to as the DCLG-based model and the Capped Household Size model. These models will be explained in greater detail in an upcoming Intelligence Unit Update.

Projection Models:

DCLG-Based Model

This model makes use of Household Representative Rates (HRR) from DCLG’s 2011-based household projections to convert populations by age and gender into households. The models uses iteration to find a population that yields a total number of households that matches the number of available household spaces implied by the development data. This iterative process involves modulating gross migration flows between each London local authority and UK regions outside of London. HRRs beyond 2021 have been extrapolated forward by the GLA. The model also produces a set of household projections consistent with the population outputs.

Capped Household Size Model

This model was introduced to provide an alternative projection based on the SHLAA housing trajectories. While the projections given by the DCLG-Based Model appear realistic for the majority of London, there are concerns that it could lead to under projection for certain local authorities, namely those in Outer London where recent population growth has primarily been driven by rising household sizes. For these boroughs, the Capped Household Size model provides greater freedom for the population to follow the growth patterns shown in the Trend-based projections, but caps average household size at 2012 levels. For boroughs where the DCLG-based SHLAA model gave higher results than the Trend-based model, the projections follow the results of the former.

Household projections are not available from this model.

Development assumptions:

SHLAA housing data

These projections incorporate development data from the 2013 Strategic Housing Land Availability Assessment (SHLAA) database to determine populations for 2012 onwards. Development trajectories are derived from this data for four phases: 2015-20, 2021-25, 2026-30, and 2031-36. For 2012-14, data is taken from the 2009 SHLAA trajectories. No data is included in the database for beyond 2036 and the 2031-36 trajectories are extended forward to 2041. This data was correct as at February 2014 and may be updated in future. Assumed development figures will not necessarily match information in the SHLAA report as some data on estate renewals is not included in the database at this time.

GLA 2013 round SHLAA-based population projections:
Borough: SHLAA-based
Borough: capped SHLAA-based
Ward: SHLAA-based
Ward: capped SHLAA-based

GLA 2013 round SHLAA-based household projections:
Borough: SHLAA-based

GLA 2013 round SHLAA-based ethnic group population projections:
Borough: SHLAA-based

Zero-development projections

The GLA produces so-called zero-development projections for London that assume that future dwelling stocks remain unchanged. These projections can be used in conjunction with the SHLAA-based projections to give an indication of the modelled impact of the assumed development. Variants are produced consistent with the DCLG-based and Capped Household Size projections. Due to the way the models operate, the former assumes no development beyond 2011 and the latter no development after 2012.

GLA 2013 round zero development population projections:
Borough: DCLG zero development
Borough: capped zero development
Ward: DCLG zero development
Ward: capped zero development

Frequently asked question: which projection should I use?

The GLA Demography Team recommends using the Capped Household Size SHLAA projection for most purposes. The main exception to this is for work estimating future housing need, where it is more appropriate to use the trend-based projections.

The custom-age population tool is here.

To access the GLA's full range of demographic projections please click here.

Snapshot img

Commercial Real Estate Market Size 2025-2029

The commercial real estate market size is forecast to increase by USD 427.3 billion at a CAGR of 4.6% between 2024 and 2029.

The market is experiencing significant shifts driven by key trends and challenges. The flexible office segment is gaining popularity due to the increasing preference for remote work and the rise of coworking spaces. Digital transformation is another major trend, with the integration of artificial intelligence, smart buildings, and virtual reality in real estate. Additionally, modular and portable buildings are becoming increasingly common, particularly in the logistics and industrial sectors, due to their cost-effectiveness and flexibility. Moreover, the advent of smart cities is revolutionizing the commercial real estate landscape. Visual content and analytics are becoming essential tools for real estate developers and investors, providing valuable insights into consumer behavior and market trends.
Hence, the market is undergoing a digital revolution, with flexible offices, smart buildings, and virtual reality leading the way. The increasing emphasis on remote work and online shopping, coupled with the rise of smart cities, is driving market growth. The integration of artificial intelligence, data analytics, and industrial automation is enabling automation solutions to transform the industry and enhance productivity.

What will be the Size of the Commercial Real Estate Market During the Forecast Period?

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The market encompasses various property types, including offices, retail and hospitality, industrial and logistics, and multifamily. Current market dynamics exhibit activity, driven by the increasing demand for flexible workspaces, such as coworking spaces and conventional offices. Technology development plays a pivotal role, with virtual property tours and artificial intelligence enhancing the real estate consultancy process. Business owners in diverse sectors, from IT to boutique businesses, continue to lease or sell offices and industrial spaces. The Smart Cities mission propels the integration of technology into commercial real estate, fostering energy efficiency and improved tenant experiences. The overall size of the market remains substantial, reflecting the essential role of commercial real estate in driving economic growth. Data analytics and industrial automation are also critical components of this digital transformation, enabling automation solutions to streamline operations and enhance efficiency.

How is this Commercial Real Estate Industry segmented and which is the largest segment?

The commercial real estate industry research report provides comprehensive data (region-wise segment analysis), with forecasts and estimates in 'USD billion' for the period 2025-2029, as well as historical data from 2019-2023 for the following segments.

End-user

  Offices
  Retail
  Leisure
  Others


Channel

  Rental
  Lease
  Sales


Geography

  APAC

    China
    India
    Japan


  North America

    Canada
    US


  Europe

    Germany
    UK
    France
    Italy


  South America

    Brazil


  Middle East and Africa

By End-user Insights

The offices segment is estimated to witness significant growth during the forecast period.

The offices segment In the market is experiencing significant growth due to evolving work patterns and corporate demands. Flexible work arrangements, hybrid models, and technological integration are driving the need for adaptable and technologically advanced office spaces. Businesses prioritize contemporary workplaces to attract and retain talent. Co-working spaces like Regus and WeWork, offering flexible office solutions, are gaining popularity. Major corporations, such as Google and Amazon, are investing in innovative office designs that foster collaboration and employee satisfaction. The offices end-user segment is projected to expand from 2024 to 2028, reflecting the ongoing transformation of workspaces to align with modern business trends.

This shift includes the integration of technology, such as virtual property tours, artificial intelligence, data analytics, and virtual reality, into commercial real estate. Additionally, sectors like IT, engineering, manufacturing, e-commerce, start-ups, and hospitality, retail are key contributors to the market's growth. The stable economic environment further supports the expansion of commercial real estate, particularly in Smart Cities and the industrial and logistics sectors. Developers, flex space centers, and information technology companies are actively responding to these trends by providing flexible and technologically advanced office solutions.

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The offices segment was valued at USD 476.50 billion in 2019 and showed a gradual increase during the f