High inflation rates of the Russian ruble, subsequent to the COVID-19 expansion and the cruide oil price drop, promoted a high demand on residential real estate. As a result, an increase in housing prices was recorded in most major cities of the country. After a 1.5 percent growth in March 2020, Moscow led the list with the highest average price for residential real estate, measuring at 211.5 thousand Russian rubles per square meter.

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The average sales price of new homes in the United States experienced a slight decrease in 2024, dropping to 512,2000 U.S. dollars from the peak of 521,500 U.S. dollars in 2022. This decline came after years of substantial price increases, with the average price surpassing 400,000 U.S. dollars for the first time in 2021. The recent cooling in the housing market reflects broader economic trends and changing consumer sentiment towards homeownership. Factors influencing home prices and affordability The rapid rise in home prices over the past few years has been driven by several factors, including historically low mortgage rates and increased demand during the COVID-19 pandemic. However, the market has since slowed down, with the number of home sales declining by over two million between 2021 and 2023. This decline can be attributed to rising mortgage rates and decreased affordability. The Housing Affordability Index hit a record low of 98.1 in 2023, indicating that the median-income family could no longer afford a median-priced home. Future outlook for the housing market Despite the recent cooling, experts forecast a potential recovery in the coming years. The Freddie Mac House Price Index showed a growth of 6.5 percent in 2023, which is still above the long-term average of 4.4 percent since 1990. However, homebuyer sentiment remains low across all age groups, with people aged 45 to 64 expressing the most pessimistic outlook. The median sales price of existing homes is expected to increase slightly until 2025, suggesting that affordability challenges may persist in the near future.

Key information about House Prices Growth

• US house prices grew 5.2% YoY in Sep 2024, following an increase of 6.2% YoY in the previous quarter.
• YoY growth data is updated quarterly, available from Mar 1992 to Sep 2024, with an average growth rate of 5.5%.
• House price data reached an all-time high of 17.7% in Sep 2021 and a record low of -12.4% in Dec 2008.

La Rioja was the Spanish region where the pandemic impact on real estate prices was higher compared to the previous year, with a decrease of almost 16% in the last quarter of 2020. The only place in Spain where there was an increase in comparison with the pre-pandemic data was in the autonomous city of Melilla.

The number of U.S. home sales in the United States declined in 2023, after soaring in 2021. A total of four million transactions of existing homes, including single-family, condo, and co-ops, were completed in 2023, down from 6.12 million in 2021. According to the forecast, the housing market is forecast to head for recovery in 2025, despite transaction volumes are expected to remain below the long-term average. Why have home sales declined? The housing boom during the coronavirus pandemic has demonstrated that being a homeowner is still an integral part of the American dream. Nevertheless, sentiment declined in the second half of 2022 and Americans across all generations agreed that the time was not right to buy a home. A combination of factors has led to house prices rocketing and making homeownership unaffordable for the average buyer. A survey among owners and renters found that the high home prices and unfavorable economic conditions were the two main barriers to making a home purchase. People who would like to purchase their own home need to save up a deposit, have a good credit score, and a steady and sufficient income to be approved for a mortgage. In 2022, mortgage rates experienced the most aggressive increase in history, making the total cost of homeownership substantially higher. Only 15 percent of U.S. renters could afford to become homeowners and in metros with highly competitive housing markets such as Los Angeles, CA, and Urban Honolulu, HI, this share was below five percent. Are U.S. home prices expected to fall? The median sales price of existing homes stood at 387,000 U.S. dollars in 2023 and was forecast to increase slightly until 2025. The development of the S&P/Case Shiller U.S. National Home Price Index shows that home prices experienced seven consecutive months of decline between June 2022 and January 2023, but this trend reversed in the following months. Despite mild fluctuations throughout the year, home prices in many metros are forecast to continue to grow, albeit at a much slower rate.

The number of home sales in the United States peaked in 2021 at almost seven million after steadily rising since 2018. Nevertheless, the market contracted in the following year, with transaction volumes falling to 4.8 million. Home sales remained muted in 2024, with a mild increase expected in 2025 and 2026. A major factor driving this trend is the unprecedented increase in mortgage interest rates due to high inflation. How have U.S. home prices developed over time? The average sales price of new homes has also been rising since 2011. Buyer confidence seems to have recovered after the property crash, which has increased demand for homes and also the prices sellers are demanding for homes. At the same time, the affordability of U.S. homes has decreased. Both the number of existing and newly built homes sold has declined since the housing market boom during the coronavirus pandemic. Challenges in housing supply The number of housing units in the U.S. rose steadily between 1975 and 2005 but has remained fairly stable since then. Construction increased notably in the 1990s and early 2000s, with the number of construction starts steadily rising, before plummeting amid the infamous housing market crash. Housing starts slowly started to pick up in 2011, mirroring the economic recovery. In 2022, the supply of newly built homes plummeted again, as supply chain challenges following the COVID-19 pandemic and tariffs on essential construction materials such as steel and lumber led to prices soaring.

Portugal, Canada, and the United States were the countries with the highest house price to income ratio in 2023. In all three countries, the index exceeded 130 index points, while the average for all OECD countries stood at 117.5 index points. The index measures the development of housing affordability and is calculated by dividing nominal house price by nominal disposable income per head, with 2015 set as a base year when the index amounted to 100. An index value of 120, for example, would mean that house price growth has outpaced income growth by 20 percent since 2015. How have house prices worldwide changed since the COVID-19 pandemic? House prices started to rise gradually after the global financial crisis (2007–2008), but this trend accelerated with the pandemic. The countries with advanced economies, which usually have mature housing markets, experienced stronger growth than countries with emerging economies. Real house price growth (accounting for inflation) peaked in 2022 and has since lost some of the gain. Although, many countries experienced a decline in house prices, the global house price index shows that property prices in 2023 were still substantially higher than before COVID-19. Renting vs. buying In the past, house prices have grown faster than rents. However, the home affordability has been declining notably, with a direct impact on rental prices. As people struggle to buy a property of their own, they often turn to rental accommodation. This has resulted in a growing demand for rental apartments and soaring rental prices.

Graph and download economic data for Median Sales Price of Houses Sold for the United States (MSPUS) from Q1 1963 to Q4 2024 about sales, median, housing, and USA.

Codebooks for analyzing property (house, condo, flat, etc.) listing data for each of the 10 select regions in the bay area megaregion of California, USA (SAN JOSE, MODESTO, FRESNO, TURLOCK, LIVINGSTON, ATWATER, MERCED, MADERA, MARIPOSA, OAKHURST) were obtained from Zillow Inc. on a monthly basis between March 2018 and May 2019 (denoted as the period before 2020) and May 2020 and September 2021 (after 2020). Combined, the total number of observations (unique listed properties) is N = 57,414. For each month, we obtained a set of unique listing identifiers (ZPID) by manually scanning across the entire Zillow.com directory for a given region and property type (“For Sale†and “Rent†). Read the enclosed document DataDryad_DataDescription_Petersen_Zillow.pdf for a description of the data and output of provided supporting code. Contact the corresponding author for the raw property-level data files, which are anonymized [property address and property identifier (ZPID) fields]., We used the open-access Zillow Inc. GetSearchResults API to sample house data for each ZPID in accordance with daily API call limits. For more information on the API see the official documentation page: https://www.zillow.com/howto/api/GetSearchResults.htm. We anonymized the property address and ZPID fields. , Programs required: Mathematica 11 (or later version) and STATA 13 (or later version). The workflow for executing Mathematica notebooks is simply Shift+Enter to execute commands contained in any given cell; the initial cells upload the data files, and from there the notebook cells should be executed from start to end in linear order., # Zillow property-level data panel for select California cities before and after 2020

Brief summary

Codebooks for analyzing property (house, condo, etc.) listing data for 10 select regions were obtained from Zillow Inc. on a monthly basis between March 2018 and May 2019 (denoted as the period before 2020) and May 2020 and September 2021 (after 2020). For each month, we obtained a set of unique listing identifiers (ZPID) by manually scanning across the entire Zillow.com directory for a given region and property type ("For Sale" and "Rent"). Combined, the total number of observations (unique listed properties) is N = 57,414.

Description of the Data and file structure

All data files are provided in CSV (comma separated value) format. See DataDryad_DataDescription_Petersen.pdf for data file structure details. Contact the corresponding author for the raw property-level data files, which are anonymized [property address and property identifier (ZPID) fields]. Â

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The data in this paper are divided into two main sections, which are data on the housing market and data on epidemic case information. The time span of the data sample is from December 1, 2019 to April 26, 2020.The original data of the housing market aspect such as the second-hand house price index in Wuhan and the surrounding provincial capital cities were obtained from Chain Home and Baidu Maps. Among them, there are 53,541 valid records of residential transactions in second-hand neighborhoods, with a final total of 347,720 after data cleaning (5582 in Wuhan; 5710 in Hefei; 7988 in Xi'an; 2066 in Changsha; 5910 in Zhengzhou; and 7464 in Chongqing).

Key information about Japan Gold Production

• Japan Real Residential Property Price Index was reported at 121.710 2010=100 in Sep 2024.
• This records an increase from the previous number of 121.633 2010=100 for Jun 2024.
• Japan Real Residential Property Price Index data is updated quarterly, averaging 110.319 2010=100 from Mar 1955 to Sep 2024, with 279 observations.
• The data reached an all-time high of 189.276 2010=100 in Mar 1991 and a record low of 12.662 2010=100 in Mar 1955.
• Japan Real Residential Property Price Index data remains active status in CEIC and is reported by Bank for International Settlements.
• The data is categorized under World Trend Plus’s Association: Property Sector – Table RK.BIS.RPPI: Selected Real Residential Property Price Index: 2010=100: Quarterly. [COVID-19-IMPACT]

Codebooks for analyzing property (house, condo, flat, etc.) listing data for each of the 10 select regions in the bay area megaregion of California, USA (SAN JOSE, MODESTO, FRESNO, TURLOCK, LIVINGSTON, ATWATER, MERCED, MADERA, MARIPOSA, OAKHURST) were obtained from Zillow Inc. on a monthly basis between March 2018 and May 2019 (denoted as the period before 2020) and May 2020 and September 2021 (after 2020). Combined, the total number of observations (unique listed properties) is N = 57,414. For each month, we obtained a set of unique listing identifiers (ZPID) by manually scanning across the entire Zillow.com directory for a given region and property type ("For Sale" and "Rent"). Read the enclosed document DataDryad_DataDescription_Petersen_Zillow.pdf for a description of the data and output of provided supporting code. Contact the corresponding author for the raw property-level data files, which are anonymized [property address and property identifier (ZPID) fields].

Replication code for the analysis and figures in the paper

Key information about Russia Gold Production

• Russia Real Residential Property Price Index was reported at 71.348 2010=100 in Sep 2024.
• This records a decrease from the previous number of 72.130 2010=100 for Jun 2024.
• Russia Real Residential Property Price Index data is updated quarterly, averaging 65.220 2010=100 from Mar 2001 to Sep 2024, with 95 observations.
• The data reached an all-time high of 113.140 2010=100 in Sep 2008 and a record low of 34.944 2010=100 in Mar 2001.
• Russia Real Residential Property Price Index data remains active status in CEIC and is reported by Bank for International Settlements.
• The data is categorized under World Trend Plus’s Association: Property Sector – Table RK.BIS.RPPI: Selected Real Residential Property Price Index: 2010=100: Quarterly. [COVID-19-IMPACT]

Key information about Germany Gold Production

• Germany Real Residential Property Price Index was reported at 126.618 2010=100 in Sep 2024.
• This records a decrease from the previous number of 126.634 2010=100 for Jun 2024.
• Germany Real Residential Property Price Index data is updated quarterly, averaging 124.439 2010=100 from Mar 1970 to Sep 2024, with 219 observations.
• The data reached an all-time high of 160.595 2010=100 in Dec 2021 and a record low of 99.134 2010=100 in Mar 2010.
• Germany Real Residential Property Price Index data remains active status in CEIC and is reported by Bank for International Settlements.
• The data is categorized under World Trend Plus’s Association: Property Sector – Table RK.BIS.RPPI: Selected Real Residential Property Price Index: 2010=100: Quarterly. [COVID-19-IMPACT]

Key information about India Gold Production

• India Real Residential Property Price Index was reported at 152.986 2010=100 in Sep 2024.
• This records a decrease from the previous number of 157.301 2010=100 for Jun 2024.
• India Real Residential Property Price Index data is updated quarterly, averaging 157.919 2010=100 from Mar 2009 to Sep 2024, with 63 observations.
• The data reached an all-time high of 177.067 2010=100 in Jun 2019 and a record low of 88.901 2010=100 in Mar 2009.
• India Real Residential Property Price Index data remains active status in CEIC and is reported by Bank for International Settlements.
• The data is categorized under World Trend Plus’s Association: Property Sector – Table RK.BIS.RPPI: Selected Real Residential Property Price Index: 2010=100: Quarterly. [COVID-19-IMPACT]

The rises in the price of new housing since 2020 are delusional and have never been seen in recent history.

House prices in the UK rose dramatically during the coronavirus pandemic, with growth slowing down in 2022 and turning negative in 2023. The year-on-year annual house price change peaked at 14 percent in July 2022. In June 2024, house prices increased by 2.7 percent. According to the Nationwide Building Society, the average house price exceeded 265,000 British pounds in 2022. Correction in housing prices: a European phenomenon The trend of a growing residential real estate market was not exclusive to the UK during the pandemic. Likewise, many European countries experienced falling prices in 2023. When comparing residential property RHPI (price index in real terms, e.g. corrected for inflation), countries such as Germany, France, Italy, and Spain also saw prices decline. Sweden, one of the countries with the fastest growing residential markets, saw one of the largest declines in prices. How has demand for UK housing changed since the outbreak of the coronavirus? The easing of the lockdown was followed by a dramatic increase in home sales. In November 2020, the number of mortgage approvals reached an all-time high of over 107,000. One of the reasons for the housing boom were the low mortgage rates, allowing home buyers to take out a loan with an interest rate as low as 2.5 percent. That changed as the Bank of England started to raise the base lending rate, resulting in higher borrowing costs and a decline in homebuyer sentiment.

The house price index in Malaysia reached 216.5 in 2023, an increase of more than twofold compared to the base index of 100 in 2010. The price index, which measures the average change in prices over a period of time, indicated that the value of housing in the country continued to increase every year since 2014. Recovery in the housing market Malaysia’s real estate industry was significantly hit by the COVID-19 pandemic but showed signs of recovery in 2022 when the restrictions were finally lifted. Subsequently, the housing market also signaled a positive recovery, with the transaction value of the residential sector growing by approximately 22 percent in the same year. Going into 2024, despite uncertainties in the global economy, the housing market in Malaysia is likely to experience more growth. Demand for more affordable housing Although the real estate market is recovering and the inflation rate in the country has slowed down, the average price of houses reached nearly 450,000 Malaysian ringgit in 2022, an increase of around 12,000 Malaysian ringgit compared to the previous year. According to a survey conducted in the capital city, Kuala Lumpur, the majority of potential home buyers had a housing budget of less than 250,000 Malaysian ringgit. As of 2024, the Malaysian government already has several low-cost housing schemes catered for the B40 lower-income and M40 middle-income groups. Nevertheless, with the rising residential prices and current cost of living, there will be more demand for affordable housing options among home buyers.

The average agreed rent for new tenancies in the UK ranged from 665 British pounds to 2,100 British pounds, depending on the region. On average, renters outside of London paid 1,095 British pounds, whereas in London, this figure amounted to 2,025 British pounds. Rents have been on the rise for many years, but the period after the COVID-19 pandemic accelerated this trend. Since 2015, the average rent in the UK increased by about 25 percent, with about half of that gain achieved in the period after the pandemic. Why have UK rents increased so much? One of the main reasons driving up rental prices is the declining affordability of homeownership. Historically, house prices grew faster than rents, making renting more financially feasible than buying. In 2022, when the house price to rent ratio index peaked, house prices had outgrown rents by nearly 30 percent since 2015. As house prices peaked in 2022, home buying slowed, exacerbating demand for rental properties and leading to soaring rental prices. How expensive is too expensive? Although there is no official requirement about the proportion of income spent on rent for it to be considered affordable, a popular rule is that rent should not exceed more than 30 percent of income. In 2024, most renters in the UK exceeded that threshold, with the southern regions significantly more likely to spend upward of 30 percent of their income on rent. Rental affordability has sparked a move away from the capital to other regions in the UK, such as the South East (Brighton and Southampton), the West Midlands (Birmingham) and the North West (Liverpool, Manchester, Blackpool and Preston).