Average house prices are affected by several factors: Economic growth, unemployment, interest rates and mortgage availability can all affect average prices. A shortage of supply means that the need for housing and, therefore, competitive market created will push up house prices, whereas an excess of housing means prices fall to stimulate buyers. Location, location, location In December 2023, the average house price in England was more expensive than in any other country. This huge disparity in average house prices is in no small part down to the country's capital city, where the average asking price was more than double that of the UK’s average. Even in London, for those who can afford a mortgage, the savings made through buying over renting can be beneficial. House prices still set to grow In 2024, the number of housing transactions in the UK is set to fall to 1.1 million. With the expected decline in transactions, the average house price is also set to stagnate across the UK.

The average house price in England started to increase in the first half of 2024, after falling by over three percent year-on-year in December 2023. In June 2024, the house price index amounted to 149.7 index points, suggesting an increase in house prices of 2.4 percent since the same month in 2023 and a roughly 50 percent rise since 2015 - the baseline year for the index. Among the different regions in the UK, West and East Midlands experienced the strongest growth.

House prices in the UK rose dramatically during the coronavirus pandemic, with growth slowing down in 2022 and turning negative in 2023. The year-on-year annual house price change peaked at 14 percent in July 2022. In June 2024, house prices increased by 2.7 percent. According to the Nationwide Building Society, the average house price exceeded 265,000 British pounds in 2022. Correction in housing prices: a European phenomenon The trend of a growing residential real estate market was not exclusive to the UK during the pandemic. Likewise, many European countries experienced falling prices in 2023. When comparing residential property RHPI (price index in real terms, e.g. corrected for inflation), countries such as Germany, France, Italy, and Spain also saw prices decline. Sweden, one of the countries with the fastest growing residential markets, saw one of the largest declines in prices. How has demand for UK housing changed since the outbreak of the coronavirus? The easing of the lockdown was followed by a dramatic increase in home sales. In November 2020, the number of mortgage approvals reached an all-time high of over 107,000. One of the reasons for the housing boom were the low mortgage rates, allowing home buyers to take out a loan with an interest rate as low as 2.5 percent. That changed as the Bank of England started to raise the base lending rate, resulting in higher borrowing costs and a decline in homebuyer sentiment.

Just as in many other countries, the housing market in the UK grew substantially during the coronavirus pandemic, fueled by robust demand and low borrowing costs. Nevertheless, high inflation and the increase in mortgage rates has led to house price growth slowing down. According to the forecast, 2024 is expected to see house prices decrease by three percent. Between 2024 and 2028, the average house price growth is projected at 2.7 percent. A contraction after a period of continuous growth In June 2022, the UK's house price index exceeded 150 index points, meaning that since 2015 which was the base year for the index, house prices had increased by 50 percent. In just two years, between 2020 and 2022, the index surged by 30 index points. As the market stood in December 2023, the average price for a home stood at approximately 284,691 British pounds. Rents are expected to continue to grow According to another forecast, the prime residential market is also expected to see rental prices grow in the next years. Growth is forecast to be stronger in 2024 and slow down in the period between 2025 and 2028. The rental market in London is expected to follow a similar trend, with Central London slightly outperforming Greater London.

In 2022, house price growth in the UK slowed, after a period of decade-long increase. Nevertheless, in August 2024, prices reached a new peak, with the average home costing close to 290,000 British pounds. That figure refers to all property types, including detached, semi-detached, terraced houses, and flats and maisonettes. Compared to other European countries, the UK had some of the highest house prices. How have UK house prices increased over the last 10 years? Property prices have risen dramatically over the past decade. According to the UK house price index, the average house price has grown by over 50 percent since 2015. This price development has led to the gap between the cost of buying and renting a property to close. In 2023, buying a three-bedroom house in the UK was no longer more affordable than renting one. Consequently, Brits have become more likely to rent longer and push off making a house purchase until they have saved up enough for a down payment and achieved the financial stability required to make the step. What caused the decline in house prices in 2022? House prices are affected by multiple factors, such as mortgage rates, supply, and demand on the market. For nearly a decade, the UK experienced uninterrupted house price growth as a result of strong demand and a chronic undersupply. Homebuyers who purchased a property at the peak of the housing boom in July 2022 paid 14 percent more compared to what they would have paid a year before. Additionally, 2022 saw the most dramatic increase in mortgage rates in recent history. Between December 2021 and December 2022, the 10-year fixed mortgage rate doubled, adding further strain to prospective homebuyers. As a result, the market cooled, leading to a correction in pricing.

The UK housing market continued to show significant regional variations in 2024, with London maintaining its position as the most expensive city for homebuyers. The average house price in the capital stood at 519,579 British pounds in October, nearly double the national average of 292,059 British pounds. However, the market dynamics are shifting, with London experiencing only a modest 0.2 percent annual increase, while other cities like Newcastle upon Tyne and Belfast saw more substantial growth of 8.8 percent and 6.8 percent respectively. Affordability challenges and market slowdown Despite the continued price growth in many cities, the UK housing market is facing headwinds. The affordability of mortgage repayments has become the biggest barrier to property purchases, with the majority of the respondents in a recent survey citing it as their main challenge. Moreover, a rising share of Brits have reported affordability as a challenge since 2021, reflecting the impact of rising house prices and higher mortgage rates. The market slowdown is evident in the declining housing transaction volumes, which have plummeted since 2021. European context The stark price differences are mirrored in the broader European context. While London boasts some of the highest property prices among European cities, a comparison of the average transaction price for new homes in different European countries shows a different picture. In 2023, the highest prices were found in Austria, Germany, and France.

The house price index (HPI) shows changes in the value of residential properties in England, Scotland, Wales, and Northern Ireland. With the HPI set at a base of 100 in January 2015, a value of over 100 would mark an increase in the average dwelling price. A value of under 100 points, on the other hand, would indicate that the average price has dropped. House price index in the UK The HPI fluctuated in 2023, after peaking in November 2022. In December 2023, the index stood at 149 index points, which was a slight decline from December 2022. This trend in the index, and therefore the value of UK residential properties, has also been observed by the Halifax house price index. Average house prices Average house prices are affected by several factors. Economic growth, unemployment, interest rates and mortgage availability can all drive them up or down. A shortage of supply means that the need for housing and the competitive market created will push house prices up. An excess of housing, on the other hand, means prices fall to stimulate buyers.

Mortgage rates increased at a record pace in 2022, with the 10-year fixed mortgage rate doubling between March 2022 and December 2022. With inflation increasing, the Bank of England introduced several bank rate hikes, resulting in higher mortgage rates. In September 2023, the average 10-year fixed rate interest rate reached 5.1 percent. As borrowing costs get higher, demand for housing is expected to decrease, leading to declining market sentiment and slower house price growth. How have the mortgage hikes affected the market? After surging in 2021, the number of residential properties sold declined in 2022, reaching close to 1.3 million. Despite the number of transactions falling, this figure was higher than the period before the COVID-10 pandemic. The falling transaction volume also impacted mortgage borrowing. Between the first quarter of 2023 and the first quarter of 2024, the value of new mortgage loans fell year-on-year for fourth straight quarters in a row. How are higher mortgages affecting homebuyers? Homeowners with a mortgage loan usually lock in a fixed rate deal for two to ten years, meaning that after this period runs out, they need to renegotiate the terms of the loan. Many of the mortgages outstanding were taken out during the period of record-low mortgage rates and have since faced notable increases in their monthly repayment. About five million homeowners are projected to see their deal expire by the end of 2026. About two million of these loans are projected to experience a monthly payment increase of up to 199 British pounds by 2026.

According to the forecast, the UK regional prime property real estate market is to increase by almost 14 percent by 2028. In 2024, prime property prices are expected to fall by two percent. In the following four years, growth will recover.

Home Ownership Rate in the United Kingdom decreased to 64.50 percent in 2023 from 64.70 percent in 2022. This dataset provides the latest reported value for - United Kingdom Home Ownership Rate - plus previous releases, historical high and low, short-term forecast and long-term prediction, economic calendar, survey consensus and news.

The average agreed rent for new tenancies in the UK ranged from 665 British pounds to 2,100 British pounds, depending on the region. On average, renters outside of London paid 1,095 British pounds, whereas in London, this figure amounted to 2,025 British pounds. Rents have been on the rise for many years, but the period after the COVID-19 pandemic accelerated this trend. Since 2015, the average rent in the UK increased by about 25 percent, with about half of that gain achieved in the period after the pandemic. Why have UK rents increased so much? One of the main reasons driving up rental prices is the declining affordability of homeownership. Historically, house prices grew faster than rents, making renting more financially feasible than buying. In 2022, when the house price to rent ratio index peaked, house prices had outgrown rents by nearly 30 percent since 2015. As house prices peaked in 2022, home buying slowed, exacerbating demand for rental properties and leading to soaring rental prices. How expensive is too expensive? Although there is no official requirement about the proportion of income spent on rent for it to be considered affordable, a popular rule is that rent should not exceed more than 30 percent of income. In 2024, most renters in the UK exceeded that threshold, with the southern regions significantly more likely to spend upward of 30 percent of their income on rent. Rental affordability has sparked a move away from the capital to other regions in the UK, such as the South East (Brighton and Southampton), the West Midlands (Birmingham) and the North West (Liverpool, Manchester, Blackpool and Preston).

During the COVID-19 pandemic, the number of house sales in the UK spiked, followed by a period of decline. In 2023, the housing market slowed notably, and in September 2024, transaction volumes fell below 50,000. House sales volumes are affected by a number of factors, including mortgage rates, house prices, supply, demand, as well as the overall health of the market. The economic uncertainty and rising unemployment rates has also affected the homebuyer sentiment of Brits. How have UK house prices developed over the past 10 years? House prices in the UK have increased year-on-year since 2015, except for a brief period of decline in the second half of 2023 and the beginning of 2024. That is based on the 12-month percentage change of the UK house price index. At the peak of the housing boom in 2022, prices soared by nearly 14 percent. The decline that followed was mild, at under three percent. The cooling in the market was more pronounced in England and Wales, where the average house price declined in 2023. Conversely, growth in Scotland and Northern Ireland continued. What is the impact of mortgage rates on house sales? For a long period, mortgage rates were at record-low, allowing prospective homebuyers to take out a 10-year loan at a mortgage rate of less than three percent. In the last quarter of 2021, this period came to an end as the Bank of England rose the bank lending rate to contain the spike in inflation. Naturally, the higher borrowing costs affected consumer sentiment, urging many homebuyers to place their plans on hold and leading to a drop in sales.

In 2023, the UK Real Estate Market reached a value of USD 816.7 million, and it is projected to surge to USD 919.0 million by 2030.

According to the forecast, the North East and Wales are the regions in the United Kingdom estimated to see the highest overall growth in house prices over the five-year period between 2024 and 2028. Just behind are North West, Yorkshire & the Humber, and Scotland, which are forecast to see house prices increase by 20.2 percent over the five-year period. In London, house prices are expected to rise by 13.9 percent.

The average house price in London increased slightly year-on-year as of June 2024, amid a slowdown in the UK housing market. Barking and Dagenham was the most affordable borough to buy a house, with an average price of 340,403 British pounds. Kensington and Chelsea stood at the other end of the spectrum, with an average price of 1.2 million British pounds. Nevertheless, it was also one of the boroughs where prices fell the most. Demand for housing and house prices With vastly more job and cultural opportunities, megacities continue attracting people from all over the world. Since the beginning of the 1980s, the population of London has increased by more than 2 million inhabitants and in the next 20 years, it is forecast to increase by almost 1.5 million. That makes London properties a valuable asset. Historically, property prices in London have risen steadily, albeit minor fluctuations. Residential properties transactions Since 2006, the number of residential property sales has varied between 1.7 million and 0.8 million transactions annually. The housing boom in 2021 led to an increase in home purchases, but the economic uncertainty, stubborn inflation, and dramatically higher interest rates have led to transactions falling.

The Direct Real Estate Activities industry have come up against numerous headwinds in recent years, ranging from the COVID-19 outbreak in 2020 to the rising base rate environment in the years since, which have inflated borrowing costs for potential buyers. This is a sharp contrast to the ultra-low interest environment seen over the decade following the 2008 financial crisis. Revenue is forecast to fall at a compound annual rate of 4.0% over the five years through 2024 to €588.2 billion, including an anticipated drop of 3.1% in 2024. However, profitability remains strong, with the average industry profit margin standing at an estimated 41.6% in 2024. Central banks across Europe adopted aggressive monetary policy in the two years through 2023 in an effort to curb spiralling inflation. This ratcheted up borrowing costs and hit the real estate sector. In the residential property market, mortgage rates picked up and hit housing transaction levels. However, the level of mortgage rate hikes has varied across Europe, with the UK experiencing the largest hike, meaning the dent to UK real estate demand was more pronounced. Commercial real estate has also struggled due to inflationary pressures, supply chain disruptions and rising rates. Alongside this, the market’s stock of office space isn’t able to satisfy business demand, with companies placing a greater emphasis on high-quality space and environmental impact – properties in many areas aren’t suitable due to their lack of green credentials. Revenue is slated to inch upwards at a compound annual rate of 3.1% over the five years through 2029 to €651.3 billion. Although economic conditions are set to improve in the short term, elevated mortgage rates will continue to weigh on demand for residential property. However, the warehousing market is positioned for solid growth, benefitting from the rise in e-commerce. This is particularly relevant to Poland, which leads the EU warehouse market.

The UK has an ageing population – for the Residential Nursing Care industry, this is an opportunity for growth with demand for more beds expanding. Homes have upped their average weekly fees, contributing to revenue. High inflation over the two years through 2023-24 has raised fees further. However, state involvement has limited growth, which has kept care fees artificially low for many nursing home residents. Residential nursing care revenue is anticipated to remain stable at £9.3 billion over the five years through 2024-25, including revenue growth of 3% in 2024-25. Weak government funding and wage cost pressures caused by the rising National Living Wage (which will increase to £12.21 in April 2025) have constrained profitability. Labour supply shortages caused by high turnover rates have been of particular concern. According to Skills For Care, the job vacancy rate in 2023-24 in the adult care sector was 8.3%, way above the average rate in the UK economy. That being said, the vacancy rate is declining thanks mainly to a government-driven recruitment drive to attract overseas workers, which has been helped by reducing visa requirements. Rising real household disposable income had supported more self-funded residents, aiding residential nursing care. However, data from the ONS revealed the percentage of self-funded residents fell from 36.7% in 2019-20 to 34.9% over the year through February 2022. In the year through February 2023, this has risen again to 37% of the 372,035 care home residents. Families are still struggling with the rising cost of living, reducing the number of people able to afford private care home costs, which has somewhat constrained revenue growth. Over the five years through 2029-30, residential and nursing care revenue is estimated to expand at a compound annual rate of 4.1% to £11.4 billion. Robust demand from an ageing population will support industry growth. However, plans for adult social care reforms are to be released in two stages (the first in 2026 and the second in 2028), which has caused greater uncertainty for the sector's future. Staff shortage concerns will continue to plague nursing care.