In 2022, house price growth in the UK slowed, after a period of decade-long increase. Nevertheless, in August 2024, prices reached a new peak, with the average home costing close to 290,000 British pounds. That figure refers to all property types, including detached, semi-detached, terraced houses, and flats and maisonettes. Compared to other European countries, the UK had some of the highest house prices. How have UK house prices increased over the last 10 years? Property prices have risen dramatically over the past decade. According to the UK house price index, the average house price has grown by over 50 percent since 2015. This price development has led to the gap between the cost of buying and renting a property to close. In 2023, buying a three-bedroom house in the UK was no longer more affordable than renting one. Consequently, Brits have become more likely to rent longer and push off making a house purchase until they have saved up enough for a down payment and achieved the financial stability required to make the step. What caused the decline in house prices in 2022? House prices are affected by multiple factors, such as mortgage rates, supply, and demand on the market. For nearly a decade, the UK experienced uninterrupted house price growth as a result of strong demand and a chronic undersupply. Homebuyers who purchased a property at the peak of the housing boom in July 2022 paid 14 percent more compared to what they would have paid a year before. Additionally, 2022 saw the most dramatic increase in mortgage rates in recent history. Between December 2021 and December 2022, the 10-year fixed mortgage rate doubled, adding further strain to prospective homebuyers. As a result, the market cooled, leading to a correction in pricing.

Mean price paid for existing residential property in England and Wales, by property type and administrative geographies. Annual data.

The statistic displays a five year forecast for house price growth in the United Kingdom (UK) from 2020 to 2024, revised with the coronavirus (covid-19) impact on the market. According to the forecast, 2020 and 2021 will likely see a slower to no increase in house prices followed by a gradual recovery between 2022 and 2024. North West, North East, Yorkshire & the Humber, and Scotland prices are forecast to bounce back quicker than other UK regions with higher five year price increase.

The UK housing market continued to show significant regional variations in 2024, with London maintaining its position as the most expensive city for homebuyers. The average house price in the capital stood at 519,579 British pounds in October, nearly double the national average of 292,059 British pounds. However, the market dynamics are shifting, with London experiencing only a modest 0.2 percent annual increase, while other cities like Newcastle upon Tyne and Belfast saw more substantial growth of 8.8 percent and 6.8 percent respectively. Affordability challenges and market slowdown Despite the continued price growth in many cities, the UK housing market is facing headwinds. The affordability of mortgage repayments has become the biggest barrier to property purchases, with the majority of the respondents in a recent survey citing it as their main challenge. Moreover, a rising share of Brits have reported affordability as a challenge since 2021, reflecting the impact of rising house prices and higher mortgage rates. The market slowdown is evident in the declining housing transaction volumes, which have plummeted since 2021. European context The stark price differences are mirrored in the broader European context. While London boasts some of the highest property prices among European cities, a comparison of the average transaction price for new homes in different European countries shows a different picture. In 2023, the highest prices were found in Austria, Germany, and France.

The house price index (HPI) shows changes in the value of residential properties in England, Scotland, Wales, and Northern Ireland. With the HPI set at a base of 100 in January 2015, a value of over 100 would mark an increase in the average dwelling price. A value of under 100 points, on the other hand, would indicate that the average price has dropped. House price index in the UK The HPI fluctuated in 2023, after peaking in November 2022. In December 2023, the index stood at 149 index points, which was a slight decline from December 2022. This trend in the index, and therefore the value of UK residential properties, has also been observed by the Halifax house price index. Average house prices Average house prices are affected by several factors. Economic growth, unemployment, interest rates and mortgage availability can all drive them up or down. A shortage of supply means that the need for housing and the competitive market created will push house prices up. An excess of housing, on the other hand, means prices fall to stimulate buyers.

House prices in the UK rose dramatically during the coronavirus pandemic, with growth slowing down in 2022 and turning negative in 2023. The year-on-year annual house price change peaked at 14 percent in July 2022. In June 2024, house prices increased by 2.7 percent. According to the Nationwide Building Society, the average house price exceeded 265,000 British pounds in 2022. Correction in housing prices: a European phenomenon The trend of a growing residential real estate market was not exclusive to the UK during the pandemic. Likewise, many European countries experienced falling prices in 2023. When comparing residential property RHPI (price index in real terms, e.g. corrected for inflation), countries such as Germany, France, Italy, and Spain also saw prices decline. Sweden, one of the countries with the fastest growing residential markets, saw one of the largest declines in prices. How has demand for UK housing changed since the outbreak of the coronavirus? The easing of the lockdown was followed by a dramatic increase in home sales. In November 2020, the number of mortgage approvals reached an all-time high of over 107,000. One of the reasons for the housing boom were the low mortgage rates, allowing home buyers to take out a loan with an interest rate as low as 2.5 percent. That changed as the Bank of England started to raise the base lending rate, resulting in higher borrowing costs and a decline in homebuyer sentiment.

Quarterly and annual growth tracking of changes in prime residential property prices in the United Kingdom (UK) up to March 2021 shows increases of up to 5.7 percent in prices. When the observation period was expanded to five years, an increase of 13.6 percent in prices of city prime properties was reported. The property type with the highest annual price growth was prime real estate in rural areas, followed by city properties. Nevertheless, compared with 2007 peak prices, rural properties still underperformed.

According to the forecast, prime property prices will continue to grow in the period between 2021 and 2025.

The average house price in England started to increase in the first half of 2024, after falling by over three percent year-on-year in December 2023. In June 2024, the house price index amounted to 149.7 index points, suggesting an increase in house prices of 2.4 percent since the same month in 2023 and a roughly 50 percent rise since 2015 - the baseline year for the index. Among the different regions in the UK, West and East Midlands experienced the strongest growth.

The Nationwide index for newly built houses increased overall during the period under observation, reaching a value of almost 13,900 index points as of the fourth quarter of 2022. This was an increase of roughly 1,200 index points over the same quarter in 2021.

Median price paid for residential property in England and Wales by property type and electoral ward. Annual data.

During the COVID-19 pandemic, the number of house sales in the UK spiked, followed by a period of decline. In 2023, the housing market slowed notably, and in September 2024, transaction volumes fell below 50,000. House sales volumes are affected by a number of factors, including mortgage rates, house prices, supply, demand, as well as the overall health of the market. The economic uncertainty and rising unemployment rates has also affected the homebuyer sentiment of Brits. How have UK house prices developed over the past 10 years? House prices in the UK have increased year-on-year since 2015, except for a brief period of decline in the second half of 2023 and the beginning of 2024. That is based on the 12-month percentage change of the UK house price index. At the peak of the housing boom in 2022, prices soared by nearly 14 percent. The decline that followed was mild, at under three percent. The cooling in the market was more pronounced in England and Wales, where the average house price declined in 2023. Conversely, growth in Scotland and Northern Ireland continued. What is the impact of mortgage rates on house sales? For a long period, mortgage rates were at record-low, allowing prospective homebuyers to take out a 10-year loan at a mortgage rate of less than three percent. In the last quarter of 2021, this period came to an end as the Bank of England rose the bank lending rate to contain the spike in inflation. Naturally, the higher borrowing costs affected consumer sentiment, urging many homebuyers to place their plans on hold and leading to a drop in sales.

The average mix-adjusted house price in London, England, peaked in August 2022, followed by a slight correction in 2023. In June 2024, the average house price amounted to about 523,134 British pounds, up from 519,795 British pounds a year ago. These recent fluctuations have also been observed by other measures, such as the house price index. The house price index is an important measure for the residential real estate market and is used to show changes in the value of residential properties.

Quarterly house price data based on a sub-sample of the Regulated Mortgage Survey.

Prime London flats in Outer and Central London, have reduced in prices in the period between March 2020 and 2021 and so have the Central London prime houses. Outer London prime houses, regional and coastal prime properties, on the other hand, saw prices grow in the same period. The highest increase in prices was recorded among prime country houses over two million British pounds. According to the forecast, prime property prices both in Central and in Outer London are expected to increase in the next five year.

Median price paid for residential property in England and Wales, for all property types by lower layer super output area. Annual data..

Affordability ratios calculated by dividing house prices for existing dwellings, by gross annual residence-based earnings. Based on the median and lower quartiles of both house prices and earnings in England and Wales.

After a very slow second quarter of 2020 due to the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic, the housing market in the United Kingdom (UK) experienced dramatic surge in home sales. In the first quarter of 2021, the residential property supply varied between 2.2 and 2.9 months of available stock for sale in different regions of the UK, and 3.8 months in Inner London. Considering the limited supply and the spike in demand, house prices have been on an upward trend.