Chinese housing prices rose by over 10 percent per year in real terms between 2003 and 2014 and are now between two and ten times higher than the construction cost of apartments. At the same time, Chinese developers built 100 billion square feet of residential real estate. This boom has been accompanied by a large increase in the number of vacant homes, held by both developers and households. This boom may turn out to be a housing bubble followed by a crash, yet that future is far from certain. The demand for real estate in China is so strong that current prices might be sustainable, especially given the sparse alternative investments for Chinese households, so long as the level of new supply is radically curtailed. Whether that happens depends on the policies of the Chinese government, which must weigh the benefits of price stability against the costs of restricting urban growth.

The China Residential Real Estate Market is Segmented by Property Type (Apartments & Condominiums and Villas & Landed Houses), Price Band (Affordable, Mid-Market and Luxury), Mode of Sale (Primary and Secondary), Business Model (Sales and Rental) and Key Cities (Shenzhen, Beijing, Shanghai, Hangzhou, Guangzhou, and Other Key Cities). The Market Forecasts are Provided in Terms of Value (USD).

Graph and download economic data for Real Residential Property Prices for China (QCNR628BIS) from Q2 2005 to Q1 2025 about China, residential, HPI, housing, real, price index, indexes, and price.

Housing Index in China decreased by 2.80 percent in July from -3.20 percent in June of 2025. This dataset provides the latest reported value for - China Newly Built House Prices YoY Change - plus previous releases, historical high and low, short-term forecast and long-term prediction, economic calendar, survey consensus and news.

Revenue for the Residential Real Estate industry in China is expected to decrease at a CAGR of 9.8% over the five years through 2025. This trend includes an expected decrease of 9.6% in the current year.Since August 2020, the People's Bank of China and the China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission have proposed three debt indicators for real estate development and management companies through which the company's financial health can be rated. This new policy has exacerbated the company's debt pressure, making it unable to repay old debts by borrowing new debt. Some real estate companies faced a liquidity crisis.In 2022, the city's lockdown and laying-off caused by COVID-19 epidemic led to the pressure of delaying the delivery of houses. The industry's newly constructed and completed areas decreased significantly throughout the year. In addition, the epidemic has impacted sales in the industry, and some sales offices have been forced to close temporarily. In 2022, the residential sales area decreased by 26.8%, and the residential sales decreased by 31.2%.Industry revenue will recover at an annualized 0.7% over the five years through 2030. Over the next five years, the industry's drag on GDP will weaken, and industry growth will stabilize. However, high housing prices have become a major social problem in China. Under the measures on the principle that residential real estate is used for living, not speculation, the financial attributes of real estate will gradually weaken, and housing prices will tend to stabilize.

In 2024, the value of personal housing loans in China amounted to ************** yuan, representing a slight drop of *** percent compared to the previous year. The overall value of outstanding mortgages more than doubled between 2016 and 2021 before it plateaued afterwards. A key factor to the growth of the real estate market China's personal housing loan market emerged in the 1990s in tandem with the marketization of the country's real estate sector. Its subsequent expansion also mirrored the growth in the property industry. Thanks to the dramatic rise in home prices across China since the early 2000s, substantial capital has poured into the market through real estate development loans and personal housing credits. For almost two decades, many Chinese middle class citizens accumulated their personal wealth through the considerable appreciation of their properties, which they financed with the help of mortgages. Risks The persistently high level of outstanding personal mortgage is becoming increasingly concerning amidst China’s current economic and market situation. With the country’s economic slowdown and the oversupply in the property sector, the housing market is losing steam, resulting in elevated risks of bad debts to financial institutions. At the same time, the household debt in China is now staying above ** percent of the country’s GDP, undermining the ability to consume and invest in the Chinese population.

In 2023, the average price of real estate in China was approximately ****** yuan per square meter, representing a decrease from the previous year. Rising prices in the real estate market Since the 1998 housing reform, property prices in China have been rising continuously. Housing in the country is now often unaffordable, especially considering the modest per capita income of Chinese households. Shanghai and Beijing even have some of the most competitive real estate markets in the world. The rapid growth in housing prices has increased wealth among homeowners, while it also led to a culture of speculation among buyers and real estate developers. Housing was treated as investments, with owners expecting the prices to grow further every year. Risk factors The expectation of a steadily growing real estate market has created a property bubble and a potential debt crisis. As Chinese real estate giants, such as China Evergrande and Country Garden, operate by continuously acquiring land plots and initiating new projects, which often require substantial loans and investments, a slowdown in property demands or a decline in home prices can significantly affect the financial situation of these companies, putting China’s banks in a vulnerable position. In addition, due to a lack of regulations and monetary constraints, the long-term maintenance issues of high-rise apartments are also a concern to the sustainable development of China’s cities.

China's housing prices have been growing nearly twice as fast as national income over the past decade, despite a high vacancy rate and a high rate of return to capital. This paper interprets China's housing boom as a rational bubble emerging naturally from its economic transition. The bubble arises because high capital returns driven by resource reallocation are not sustainable in the long run. Rational expectations of a strong future demand for alternative stores of value can thus induce currently productive agents to speculate in the housing market. Our model can quantitatively account for China's paradoxical housing boom.

This data package includes the underlying data files to replicate the data and charts presented in Why China's housing policies have failed, PIIE Working Paper 23-5.

If you use the data, please cite as: Huang, Tianlei. 2023. Why China's housing policies have failed. PIIE Working Paper 23-5. Washington, DC: Peterson Institute for International Economics.

The China home mortgage finance market, while experiencing a period of adjustment following recent regulatory changes, presents a compelling long-term investment opportunity. The market's size in 2025 is estimated at $4 trillion USD, reflecting a significant contribution from a large and growing population, ongoing urbanization, and government initiatives aimed at affordable housing. The historical period (2019-2024) likely saw robust growth, though fluctuating due to factors such as macroeconomic conditions and policy shifts. While precise figures for this period are unavailable, industry analysis suggests a CAGR in the high single digits to low double digits, considering the sustained growth in the overall real estate sector before the recent regulatory tightening. The forecast period (2025-2033) anticipates a more moderate, yet still positive, CAGR, influenced by government efforts to curb excessive speculation and promote sustainable growth in the housing market. This moderation reflects a shift towards a more balanced and controlled expansion of the mortgage finance sector. Despite recent regulatory interventions aimed at managing risk within the financial system, the underlying demand for housing in China remains substantial. Continued urbanization, a growing middle class seeking improved living standards, and government policies supporting affordable housing will contribute to the market's long-term resilience. The focus is now shifting towards a more sustainable model of growth, prioritizing responsible lending practices and minimizing systemic risks. This necessitates adaptation within the mortgage finance sector, leading to innovative lending models, enhanced risk management strategies, and increased technological adoption. The market’s future will depend on successfully navigating these challenges while continuing to meet the housing needs of a large and dynamic population. Recent developments include: October 2022: HSBC expands China's private banking network and launches in two new cities., September 2022: China Construction Bank Corp., one of the country's four largest state-owned lenders, will set up a 30-billion-yuan (USD 4.2 billion) fund to buy properties from developers. The move comes even as policymakers take steps to contain a real estate crisis weighing on the economy.. Notable trends are: Favorable Mortgage Rates is Expected to Drive the Market.

China Real Estate Market, valued at USD 5.30T in 2024, is projected to reach USD 6.98T by 2030, growing at a 3.9% CAGR from 2025 to 2030.

The China residential real estate market, while experiencing fluctuations, presents a complex picture of growth and challenges. The period from 2019 to 2024 showed varied performance, likely influenced by government regulations aimed at cooling the market and addressing affordability concerns. Assuming a moderate CAGR (let's estimate 5% for illustrative purposes, acknowledging this is a simplification given the market's volatility) between 2019 and 2024, followed by a projected CAGR of 4% from 2025 to 2033, we can observe a pattern of sustained, albeit more tempered, growth. The market size in 2025 serves as a crucial base for future projections. Factors such as urbanization, rising disposable incomes in certain segments of the population, and evolving preferences for housing types continue to drive demand, even amidst regulatory tightening. However, challenges remain, including concerns about oversupply in certain regions, high debt levels among developers, and persistent affordability issues in major cities. The market's future trajectory hinges on the effectiveness of government policies aimed at balancing sustainable growth with financial stability and social equity. The government's focus on affordable housing initiatives and sustainable development will significantly influence market segmentation and overall growth. The forecast period (2025-2033) suggests continued expansion, albeit at a slower pace compared to potentially higher growth seen in prior years. This moderation reflects a more controlled and sustainable approach to market development. The long-term outlook is positive, contingent upon successful navigation of economic headwinds and the ongoing implementation of effective regulatory frameworks. Key players will need to adapt to shifting market dynamics, focusing on sustainable development practices, innovative financing strategies, and catering to evolving consumer preferences to capitalize on future growth opportunities. Analyzing regional variations within China is crucial for understanding the nuances of this dynamic market. Recent developments include: February 2022: Dar Al-Arkan, a Saudi real estate corporation, announced the creation of an office in Beijing, China. The move is in accordance with Dar Al-strategic Arkan's expansion ambitions and builds on the company's global brand development efforts. The company's Beijing office is expected to serve a variety of tasks, including establishing joint ventures between Dar Al-Arkan and renowned Chinese real estate developers for both the Chinese and Saudi markets, as well as enhancing investment and knowledge-sharing opportunities between the two countries. Dar Al-office Arkan's will serve as a hub for Chinese enterprises and investors looking to expand, start businesses, or invest in the Kingdom., February 2022: China Evergrande Group announced that it sold stakes and "right to debt" in four developments to two state-owned trust firms for CNY 2.13 billion (USD 0.35 billion), in a move to ensure their construction goes ahead as well as delivery of its other projects. The world's most indebted property developer is struggling to complete projects and homes - deemed a priority by China's policymakers to ensure social stability - while weighed down by its more than USD 300 billion in liabilities. Evergrande sold its stake and right to debt in a residential development in Chongqing and Dongguan to Everbright Trust for CNY 1.03 billion (USD 0.19 billion), as well as those in a housing project in Foshan and a theme park development in Guangzhou to Minmetals Trust for CNY 1.1 billion (USD 0.16 billion).. Notable trends are: Urbanization Driving the Residential Real Estate Market.

Since the 1998 housing reform, the Chinese real estate market went through more than two decades of prosperity. The overall sales revenue of commercial residential housing skyrocketed from ************* yuan in 1998 to over ************* yuan in 2012, and more than *********** yuan in 2021. However, sales revenue dropped considerably in 2022, and reached only around ************ yuan in 2024. With demands for residential housing potentially falling, the sector is posing a significant risk to the long-term healthy development of the Chinese economy.

The China residential real estate industry is expected to grow at a CAGR of XX% during 2025-2033. The market size was valued at XX million in 2025 and is projected to reach XX million by 2033. The growth of the market is attributed to the increasing urbanization, rising disposable income, and government policies that support homeownership. The key drivers of the market include the increasing demand for housing from the growing middle class, the government's focus on affordable housing, and the development of smart cities. However, the market is also facing some challenges, such as the rising cost of land, the strict regulations on real estate development, and the increasing competition from the rental market. The market is segmented by type into apartments & condominiums, villas & landed houses, and by key cities into Shenzhen, Beijing, Shanghai, Hangzhou, Guangzhou, and other key cities. The major players in the market include Evergrande Real Estate Group Limited, China Overseas Land & Investment Limited, Longfor Group Holdings Limited, China State Construction Engineering Corporation Ltd (CSCEC), Shimao Group Holdings Limited, Sunac China Holdings Limited, China Resources Land Limited, China Vanke Co Ltd, China Merchants Shekou Industrial Zone Holdings Co Ltd, and Country Garden Holdings Company Limited. The market concentration is moderate, with the top 5 players accounting for XX% of the market share. The companies are focusing on expanding their presence in key cities, developing new projects, and offering innovative products and services to meet the evolving needs of consumers. The China residential real estate industry is one of the largest and most important in the world. In 2021, the industry was valued at over $4 trillion USD and is projected to grow to over $6 trillion USD by 2025. The industry is characterized by a high concentration of large developers, with the top 10 developers accounting for over 50% of the market share. The industry is also highly regulated, with the government implementing a number of policies to control prices and prevent speculation. Recent developments include: February 2022: Dar Al-Arkan, a Saudi real estate corporation, announced the creation of an office in Beijing, China. The move is in accordance with Dar Al-strategic Arkan's expansion ambitions and builds on the company's global brand development efforts. The company's Beijing office is expected to serve a variety of tasks, including establishing joint ventures between Dar Al-Arkan and renowned Chinese real estate developers for both the Chinese and Saudi markets, as well as enhancing investment and knowledge-sharing opportunities between the two countries. Dar Al-office Arkan's will serve as a hub for Chinese enterprises and investors looking to expand, start businesses, or invest in the Kingdom., February 2022: China Evergrande Group announced that it sold stakes and "right to debt" in four developments to two state-owned trust firms for CNY 2.13 billion (USD 0.35 billion), in a move to ensure their construction goes ahead as well as delivery of its other projects. The world's most indebted property developer is struggling to complete projects and homes - deemed a priority by China's policymakers to ensure social stability - while weighed down by its more than USD 300 billion in liabilities. Evergrande sold its stake and right to debt in a residential development in Chongqing and Dongguan to Everbright Trust for CNY 1.03 billion (USD 0.19 billion), as well as those in a housing project in Foshan and a theme park development in Guangzhou to Minmetals Trust for CNY 1.1 billion (USD 0.16 billion).. Key drivers for this market are: Government Infrastructure Spending, Urbanization and Increasing Disposable Incomes. Potential restraints include: Oversupply in the Real Estate, Labor Shortages. Notable trends are: Urbanization Driving the Residential Real Estate Market.

In 2023, the average price for residential real estate in Shenzhen ****** yuan per square meter. This was the highest price among all major cities in China, with the average price across the country amounting to ****** yuan per square meter. A pillar of the Chinese economy China gradually abolished its welfare housing allocation system and liberalized its real estate market in the 1990s. In 2003, the government declared the real estate sector as one of the pillars of the Chinese economy. Thanks to the country's rapid economic development and urbanization, China's real estate market expanded significantly in the last two decades, with the sector accounting for about seven percent of China's GDP in 2022. Unaffordable in major urban centers While the real estate industry greatly contributed to the growth of China's economy, the housing market boom also created social issues and financial risks. In comparison to household income, property prices in major cities, most notably Shanghai, Beijing, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen, are extraordinarily expensive for average citizens. Soaring housing prices have also led to a rapid division of wealth between homeowners and renters. At the same time, debt problems created by the rapid expansion of real estate companies and the high levels of debt accumulated by Chinese citizens have created serious potential hazards for China's financial system.

Market Size and Growth: The China luxury residential real estate market was valued at $146.25 million in 2025 and is projected to reach $170.78 million by 2033, exhibiting a CAGR of 6.28% during the forecast period. Strong economic growth, rising disposable incomes, and increasing urbanization are fueling the demand for luxury residential properties in major cities such as Beijing, Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Guangzhou. Key Trends and Drivers: The market is characterized by growing demand for premium amenities, such as smart home systems, rooftop gardens, and concierge services. Government policies are also encouraging the development of luxury residential properties, with increased investment in infrastructure and incentives for foreign investors. Additionally, the rise of the high-net-worth individual (HNWI) population in China and the increasing interest in international buyers are driving the market upwards. However, factors such as strict government regulations, rising construction costs, and limited land supply may pose challenges for the industry. Recent developments include: December 2022: A joint venture led by Shui On Land has won the land-use rights to develop a residential project on a plot in Shanghai’s Yangpu district with a bid of RMB 2.38 billion (USD 340 million). The parties plan to develop the 16,993.8 square metre (182,920 square foot) parcel on Pingliang Street into a heritage preservation project incorporating a high-end, low-density residential community. A wholly owned subsidiary of Shui On holds 60% of the JV, with the remaining 40% held by state-owned developer Shanghai Yangshupu., November 2022: China’s largest lenders ready to pump over USD 162 Billion of credit into the country’s property developers, as Xi Jinping’s government retreats from tight controls on leverage in the real estate sector that had sparked a property crisis. Industrial and Commercial Bank of China (ICBC), China’s largest lender by assets, announced it was extending credit lines totalling RMB 655 Billion (USD 92 Billion) to 12 developers.. Key drivers for this market are: 4., Higher incomes support4.; Massive industry change. Potential restraints include: 4., High imbalance in population versus real estate index. Notable trends are: Growth of urbanization driving luxury residential real estate market.

The China home mortgage finance market, while exhibiting considerable growth in recent years (2019-2024), is projected to maintain a robust expansion throughout the forecast period (2025-2033). This growth is fueled by several key factors. Firstly, China's burgeoning middle class continues to drive demand for homeownership, a culturally significant aspiration. Secondly, government policies, while undergoing adjustments to manage risk, broadly support access to home mortgages, although regulatory tightening in recent years has impacted market pace. Thirdly, the ongoing urbanization process within China leads to significant population migration to urban centers, further increasing demand for housing and associated financing. While fluctuations in interest rates and macroeconomic conditions will inevitably influence market performance, the underlying drivers of population growth, urbanization, and the cultural significance of homeownership suggest sustained albeit potentially moderated growth. However, the market faces challenges. Stringent lending regulations aimed at mitigating systemic risk within the financial sector will likely continue to influence lending practices and credit availability. Furthermore, potential shifts in government policies regarding property ownership or housing affordability could affect market trajectories. Competition among financial institutions providing mortgages remains intense, leading to innovative products and services. The overall market landscape is dynamic, with growth rates likely to modulate as regulatory adjustments and economic conditions evolve. We project a moderate CAGR, reflecting a balanced perspective on both the potent growth drivers and the inherent regulatory constraints operating within the market. Careful consideration of these factors will be vital in projecting future market performance accurately. Detailed analysis of regional variations and segment-specific trends would also provide more granular insight. This report provides an in-depth analysis of the China home mortgage finance market, covering the period from 2019 to 2033. With a base year of 2025 and an estimated year of 2025, this study offers valuable insights into the market's historical performance (2019-2024), current state (2025), and future trajectory (2025-2033). The report analyzes key segments, including various types of lenders (Banks, House Provident Fund (HPF)), financing options (Personal New Housing Loan, Personal Second-hand Housing Loan, Personal Housing Provident Fund (Portfolio) Loan), and types of mortgages (Fixed, Variable). The study also examines the impact of recent industry developments, such as HSBC's expansion and China Construction Bank's initiative to support developers. This report is essential for investors, lenders, developers, and anyone seeking to understand the dynamics of this crucial market. The market size is measured in millions of units. Recent developments include: October 2022: HSBC expands China's private banking network and launches in two new cities., September 2022: China Construction Bank Corp., one of the country's four largest state-owned lenders, will set up a 30-billion-yuan (USD 4.2 billion) fund to buy properties from developers. The move comes even as policymakers take steps to contain a real estate crisis weighing on the economy.. Notable trends are: Favorable Mortgage Rates is Expected to Drive the Market.

The China home loan market, a significant driver of the nation's real estate sector, exhibits robust growth potential. With a market size exceeding [Estimate based on available data – e.g., ¥5 trillion in 2025] and a Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) exceeding 6%, the market is projected to reach [Estimate based on CAGR and 2025 value – e.g., ¥7.5 trillion] by 2033. This expansion is fueled by several key drivers, including a burgeoning middle class with increasing disposable income, supportive government policies aimed at boosting homeownership, and ongoing urbanization driving demand for housing in rapidly developing cities. Key market segments include home purchases, which dominate market share, followed by refinancing and home improvements. The end-user segment is largely driven by employed individuals and professionals, indicating a strong correlation between economic stability and home loan demand. Tenure-based segmentation reveals a diverse market, with significant representation across all tenure groups, highlighting the longevity and stability of the home loan market within China. However, the market faces potential restraints including government regulations aimed at curbing excessive borrowing, fluctuating interest rates, and concerns regarding potential housing bubbles in certain regions. The competitive landscape is dominated by major state-owned banks such as ICBC, Bank of China, and China Construction Bank, showcasing the significant role of these institutions in facilitating home loans. However, the presence of private and smaller banks demonstrates a degree of competition and market diversification. Future growth hinges on sustained economic growth, effective government policies, and responsible lending practices to mitigate risks and ensure market stability. Understanding these dynamics is crucial for businesses operating within this sector and for investors seeking exposure to this high-growth market. Further detailed analysis of regional variations within China is required for a comprehensive understanding of localized market opportunities and challenges. This includes identifying pockets of high growth and understanding the specific factors driving demand in various provinces and municipalities. Recent developments include: March 2023: ICBC implemented a set of policies and subsequent actions to stabilize the economy; promptly issued specific measures to stabilize growth; implemented forward-looking, accurate, and appropriate measures to emphasize its core responsibility and core business; and led and supported real economy growth through financial services., October 2022: China Everbright Limited's (Stock code: 165. HK) CEL-Catalyst China-Israel Fund is pleased to announce that its portfolio company SatixFy successfully listed on NYSE American on 28th October 2022 with the symbol 'SATX', via a merger with Endurance Acquisition Corp. (NASDAQ: EDNC), a publicly traded special purpose acquisition company, or SPAC.. Key drivers for this market are: Real Estate Market Trends, Government Policies. Potential restraints include: Real Estate Market Trends, Government Policies. Notable trends are: Impact of Increasing Household Consumption on Home Loan Market in China.

The China Home Mortgage Finance Market Report is Segmented by Loan Purpose (Purchase, Home Improvement/Renovation, Loan Against Property, Others), Provider (Banks, Housing Finance Companies, Others), Interest Rates (Fixed, Floating), and Loan Tenure (≤10 Years, 11-20 Years, More Than 20 Years). The Market Forecasts are Provided in Terms of Value (USD).

Property Price: YTD Avg: Beijing data was reported at 28,360.916 RMB/sq m in Mar 2025. This records a decrease from the previous number of 36,835.882 RMB/sq m for Feb 2025. Property Price: YTD Avg: Beijing data is updated monthly, averaging 19,466.029 RMB/sq m from Jan 2003 (Median) to Mar 2025, with 267 observations. The data reached an all-time high of 42,343.603 RMB/sq m in Jun 2021 and a record low of 4,515.769 RMB/sq m in Feb 2004. Property Price: YTD Avg: Beijing data remains active status in CEIC and is reported by National Bureau of Statistics. The data is categorized under China Premium Database’s Price – Table CN.PD: NBS: Property Price: Monthly.