The average Canadian house price declined slightly in 2023, after four years of consecutive growth. The average house price stood at 678,282 Canadian dollars in 2023 and was forecast to reach 722,063 Canadian dollars by 2025. Home sales on the rise The number of housing units sold is also set to increase over the two-year period. From 443,511 units sold, the annual number of home sales in the country is expected to fall to 489,661 in 2024. British Columbia and Ontario have traditionally been housing markets with prices above the Canadian average, and both are set to witness an increase in sales in 2024. How did Canadians feel about the future development of house prices? When it comes to consumer confidence in the performance of the real estate market in the next six months, Canadian consumers in 2024 mostly expected that the market would go up. A slightly lower share of the respondents believed real estate prices would remain the same.

The average price for a house in Quebec stood at approximately 487,000 Canadian dollars in 2023 and was set to increase slightly in the next two years. In 2025, the average price is forecast to reach 512,000 Canadian dollars. Meanwhile, the national average house price was forecast to pick up in 2025. Compared to other provinces, Quebec was the third-most expensive province to buy housing in Canada, after British Columbia and Ontario. Quebec Located on the eastern side of Canada, Quebec had an estimated population of almost nine million people in 2022. It is the second most populated province in Canada, and the second-largest by land size, as it is three times the size of Texas. The largest city in Quebec is Montreal, which is close to the Vermont border in the United States. The median total family income in Quebec has been steadily rising since 2000. Housing Prices in Canada Housing prices in Canada vary province to province. The most expensive average house price was in British Columbia in 2022. Vancouver, the most populated city in British Columbia, is known for its high-priced real estate market. However, housing prices all over Canada have increased in the past couple of years.

After surging in 2021, sales activity in the Canadian housing market slowed down in the next two years. According to the forecast, the number of home sales in 2025 is expected to reach almost 525,500. The Canadian residential housing market is going through a period of change because the skyrocketing home prices are being tempered by various governmental interventions. One of the measures is such as a two-year ban on foreign purchases. Additionally, the government introduced a tax on vacant foreign-owned housing and a tax on assignment sales - resales of homes that have not been constructed or lived in before the time of the sale.

The average house price in British Columbia in 2023 stood at about 971,000 Canadian dollars and, according to the forecast, is set to decrease by less than one percent, reaching 966,000 Canadian dollars in the following year. Nevertheless, this downward trend is expected to reverse in 2025. The average house price in Canada is forecast to grow in the next two years.

Home affordability has worsened substantially in Canada since 2021. In January 2023, the monthly single-family mortgage payment amounted to approximately 66 percent of a household's income, on average. In 2021, when affordability had improved slightly, the average mortgage payment constituted 47 percent of a household's income.

House prices in British Columbia and Ontario were notably higher than any other province in Canada in 2023. The average house price in any other province was less than 500,000 Canadian dollars, whereas in British Columbia and Ontario, it exceeded 800,000 Canadian dollars. The most affordable province to buy a home was Newfoundland, where the average home cost about 293,573 Canadian dollars.

The Canadian residential real estate market, valued at approximately $XX million in 2025, is projected to experience steady growth with a Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of 3.20% from 2025 to 2033. This growth is driven by several factors, including a growing population, particularly in major urban centers like Toronto, Vancouver, and Montreal, increasing urbanization, and a persistent demand for housing across various segments, from apartments and condominiums to villas and landed houses. Strong immigration numbers and a relatively robust economy contribute to sustained demand, although affordability concerns, particularly in high-density areas, represent a significant challenge. Government policies aimed at addressing housing affordability and supply shortages will play a crucial role in shaping the market's trajectory in the coming years. Competition among major developers like Aquilini Development, Bosa Properties, and Brookfield Asset Management, along with numerous smaller players, will continue to influence pricing and innovation within the sector. The market segmentation reveals significant regional disparities. Toronto, Vancouver, and Montreal consistently dominate the market share due to their economic dynamism and population density. However, cities like Calgary and Ottawa also contribute substantially, reflecting regional economic variations and the distribution of population growth across the country. While the apartment and condominium segment holds a considerable share, the demand for villas and landed houses remains significant, particularly in suburban and rural areas. The forecast period anticipates continued growth, but at a moderated pace compared to previous periods of rapid expansion, reflecting a more balanced market characterized by increasing affordability concerns and adjustments in government regulations. The consistent presence of established players and emerging developers indicates a dynamic and competitive landscape. Recent developments include: October 2022: Dye & Durham Limited ("Dye & Durham") and Lone Wolf Technologies ("Lone Wolf") have announced a brand-new integration that was created specifically for CREA WEBForms powered by Transactions (TransactionDesk Edition) to enable access to and communication with legal services., September 2022: ApartmentLove Inc., based in Calgary, has recently acquired OwnerDirect.com and finalized a rental listing license agreement with a significant U.S. aggregator as part of its ongoing acquisition and partnership plans. In 30 countries, ApartmentLove (APLV-CN) offers online house, apartment, and vacation rental marketing services.. Key drivers for this market are: Population Growth is the main driving factor, Government Initiatives and Regulatory Aspects for the Residential Real Estate Sector. Potential restraints include: Housing Supply Shortage, Interest rates and Financing. Notable trends are: Immigration Policies are Driving the Market.

Ontario was the province expected to see the highest shortage of homes in Canada by 2030, according to a 2023 forecast. Based on the projected supply and housing demand, Canada is expected to experience a shortage of about 3.5 million housing units by 2030. Ontario will account for approximate 1.5 million of this housing gap.

New residential construction in Canada 1948-2023 Published by Fernando de Querol Cumbrera, Jun 7, 2024 In 2023, there were fewer new home construction starts in Canada than in the previous year. Construction starts peaked in 2021, when there were 271,200 housing units whose construction started that year. Despite the restrictions imposed in Canada during the COVID-19 pandemic, the industry managed to continue operating, with increases in the number of housing starts in 2020 and 2021. How many homes are under development? In 2022, the number of housing units that were under construction in Canada was approximately 334,000 units. After a period of stagnation until 2016, the housing industry witnessed a significant surge in construction activity, with an annual growth rate of nearly 9.5 percent. Numerous factors are attributed to this rise, including the heightened demand for housing, an expanding economy that encouraged investment, and the response to the shortage of housing. How expensive are homes in Canada? In 2023, the average cost of a house in Canada was around 678,282 Canadian dollars. The average house price had fallen that year by 25,593 Canadian dollars compared in 2023 compared to the previous year. Another way to measure the trends in housing prices is the house price-to-income ratio. It measures the development of housing affordability and is calculated by dividing the nominal house price by the nominal disposable income per head. The house price-to-income ratio in Canada fell by 15.8 percentage points between the second quarter of 2022 and that same quarter in 2023, indicating that house values decreased in relation to earnings. This makes homeownership in Canada more challenging due to the decreasing affordability of dwellings.

Zimmer (?The role of copulas in the housing crisis?, Review of Economics and Statistics 2012; 94: 607-620) provides an interesting case study of the pitfalls of using parametric copulas to understand the US housing crisis in the latter part of 2000s. The original study by Zimmer (2012) employs a finite-mixture copula to illustrate that the symmetry of the Gaussian copula may not be tenable, especially for US housing price data during the time period from 1975:Q2 to 2009:Q1. We undertake a replication of his study in a wide sense. First, we replicate the study by incorporating revised data and then extending the dataset to include the most recent data. Second, we implement a nonparametric copula estimator recently proposed by Racine (?Mixed data kernel copulas?, Empirical Economics forthcoming) to the parametrically filtered data used in Zimmer (2012). Our replication finds that the application of the nonparametric copula to the same and extended filtered data provides an alternative flexible specification for copulas. However, the overall cautionary message of the flexible-form copula espoused in Zimmer (2012) remains.

The average resale house price in Canada was forecast to reach nearly 836,000 Canadian dollars in 2026, according to a January forecast. In 2024, house prices increased after falling for the first time since 2019. One of the reasons for the price correction was the notable drop in transaction activity. Housing transactions picked up in 2024 and are expected to continue to grow until 2026. British Columbia, which is the most expensive province for housing, is projected to see the average house price reach 1.2 million Canadian dollars in 2026. Affordability in Vancouver Vancouver is the most populous city in British Columbia and is also infamously expensive for housing. In 2023, the city topped the ranking for least affordable housing market in Canada, with the average homeownership cost outweighing the average household income. There are a multitude of reasons for this, but most residents believe that foreigners investing in the market cause the high housing prices. Victoria housing market The capital of British Columbia is Victoria, where housing prices are also very high. The price of a single family home in Victoria's most expensive suburb, Oak Bay was 1.9 million Canadian dollars in 2024.

The metropolitan area of Toronto had one of the largest housing shortages between 2016 and 2022. Just in 2022, there were 104,755 housing completions less than new families were formed or registered in the Toronto. Meanwhile, the metro area of the city of Quebec saw more housing completions than families throughout that period, with the exception of 2021.

Portugal, Canada, and the United States were the countries with the highest house price to income ratio in 2023. In all three countries, the index exceeded 130 index points, while the average for all OECD countries stood at 117.5 index points. The index measures the development of housing affordability and is calculated by dividing nominal house price by nominal disposable income per head, with 2015 set as a base year when the index amounted to 100. An index value of 120, for example, would mean that house price growth has outpaced income growth by 20 percent since 2015. How have house prices worldwide changed since the COVID-19 pandemic? House prices started to rise gradually after the global financial crisis (2007–2008), but this trend accelerated with the pandemic. The countries with advanced economies, which usually have mature housing markets, experienced stronger growth than countries with emerging economies. Real house price growth (accounting for inflation) peaked in 2022 and has since lost some of the gain. Although, many countries experienced a decline in house prices, the global house price index shows that property prices in 2023 were still substantially higher than before COVID-19. Renting vs. buying In the past, house prices have grown faster than rents. However, the home affordability has been declining notably, with a direct impact on rental prices. As people struggle to buy a property of their own, they often turn to rental accommodation. This has resulted in a growing demand for rental apartments and soaring rental prices.

The COVID-19 pandemic is adding to the ongoing public health crisis related to high rates of opioid overdose and deaths, as well as acute substance use harms. These crises are made worse in communities where there is chronic overcrowding, including a shortage of housing or other shelters.

In 2023, there were fewer new home construction starts in Canada than in the previous year. Construction starts peaked in 2021, when there were 271,200 housing units whose construction started that year. Despite the restrictions imposed in Canada during the COVID-19 pandemic, the industry managed to continue operating, with increases in the number of housing starts in 2020 and 2021. How many homes are under development? In 2022, the number of housing units that were under construction in Canada was approximately 334,000 units. After a period of stagnation until 2016, the housing industry witnessed a significant surge in construction activity, with an annual growth rate of nearly 9.5 percent. Numerous factors are attributed to this rise, including the heightened demand for housing, an expanding economy that encouraged investment, and the response to the shortage of housing. How expensive are homes in Canada? In 2023, the average cost of a house in Canada was around 678,282 Canadian dollars. The average house price had fallen that year by 25,593 Canadian dollars compared in 2023 compared to the previous year. Another way to measure the trends in housing prices is the house price-to-income ratio. It measures the development of housing affordability and is calculated by dividing the nominal house price by the nominal disposable income per head. The house price-to-income ratio in Canada fell by 15.8 percentage points between the second quarter of 2022 and that same quarter in 2023, indicating that house values decreased in relation to earnings. This makes homeownership in Canada more challenging due to the decreasing affordability of dwellings.

The average Canadian house price declined slightly in 2023, after four years of consecutive growth. The average house price stood at 678,282 Canadian dollars in 2023 and was forecast to reach 746,379 Canadian dollars by 2026. Home sales on the rise The number of housing units sold is also set to increase over the two-year period. From 443,511 units sold, the annual number of home sales in the country is expected to rise to 453,704 in 2025. British Columbia and Ontario have traditionally been housing markets with prices above the Canadian average, and both are set to witness an increase in sales in 2025. How did Canadians feel about the future development of house prices? When it comes to consumer confidence in the performance of the real estate market in the next six months, Canadian consumers in 2024 mostly expected that the market would go up. A slightly lower share of the respondents believed real estate prices would remain the same.

In Canada, there were nearly twice more new families formed than housing units completed in 2022. There had been similar numbers of housing units completed than new families between 2003 and 2016. However, every year since 2017 with the exception of 2020, there has been large housing shortages, meaning that there was less housing built than families formed.

According to the forecast, the Canadian commercial real estate investment market is recovering from the coronavirus (COVID-19) crisis. In 2023, investment volumes reached 49.5 billion Canadian dollars, an increase of over 14 bllion dollars as compared to 2020.

According to the forecast, the Canadian commercial real estate investment market was headed for recovery from the coronavirus (COVID-19) crisis. Investment volumes are expected to increase across all real estate sectors, with the multifamily investment sector attracting close to 12 billion Canadian dollars in 2021, up from approximately 11 billion Canadian dollars in 2020 and ten billion Canadian dollars in 2019. While the outlook might be overall optimistic, the total volume of investment forecast for 2021 is expected to be below the levels recorded in 2019.

Following the drastic increase directly after the COVID-19 pandemic, the delinquency rate started to gradually decline, falling to 3.37 percent in the second quarter of 2023. In the four quarters, the delinquency rate increased slightly, reaching 3.97 percent. That was significantly lower than the 8.22 percent during the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic in the second quarter of 2020 or the peak of 9.3 percent during the subprime mortgage crisis of 2007-2010. What does the mortgage delinquency rate tell us?The mortgage delinquency rate is the share of the total number of mortgaged home loans in the U.S. where payment is overdue by 30 days or more. Many borrowers are eventually able to service their loan, though, as indicated by the markedly lower foreclosure rates. Total home mortgage debt in the U.S. stood at almost 13 trillion U.S. dollars in 2023. Not all mortgage loans are made equal‘Subprime’ loans, being targeted at high-risk borrowers and generally coupled with higher interest rates to compensate for the risk. These loans have far higher delinquency rates than conventional loans. Defaulting on such loans was one of the triggers for the 2007-2010 financial crisis, with subprime delinquency rates reaching almost 26 percent around this time. These higher delinquency rates translate into higher foreclosure rates, which peaked at just under 15 percent of all subprime mortgages in 2011.